Sunday November 15 2020 Forecast (8:17AM)

46 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

Discussion…

First I would like to mention the minor coastal flooding threat a couple hours either side of the late morning high tide today as we have one of the astronomically higher tides of the year. High pressure hangs on and gives us a bright start to the day, if you were up early enough. Clouds advance quickly today ahead of a warm front which will pass by later today. While the warm front does not have any precipitation with it, it will open the door for a surge of warm and humid air this evening ahead of a strong cold front which will then cross the region late tonight from west to east, as its parent low tracks north of here. This front will produce a fairly solid area of showers/downpours and possibly some thunder. While the heaviest rain will occur in a fairly narrow, quick-moving band, it can result in street flooding, especially where fallen leaves block storm drains. Wet leaves on roads also can be as slippery as snow/ice, not to mention the reduce visibility, so anyone on the road later tonight will need to exercise caution. The other threat is wind. While it will be breezy leading up to and into the time of the showers, there can be some particularly strong wind gusts aided by heavier showers bringing down much stronger winds from above. Isolated wind damage and power outages are possible. The window of greatest risk will be 10PM to 2AM from west to east across the region. Monday’s weather will feature a chilly wind with sun and clouds as a cold Canadian air mass enters via the Great Lakes. A disturbance will come along in the flow on Tuesday with more cloudiness and a rain/snow shower risk, though no significant precipitation will occur. This disturbance will serve to drag even colder air into the region for the middle of next week.

Details…

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts late.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers moving in from west to east evening, including a band of heavier showers and possible thunder during the 10 p.m. to 2 a.m. window but lasting only a short time in any one area, then rain showers exiting from west to east overnight. Temperatures steady or rising slightly evening. Overnight lows 40-47. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W. During the passage of the heaviest showers wind gusts in excess of 30 MPH at lower elevations and in excess of 45 MPH at higher elevations may occur.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 47-54 occurring in the morning then falling through the 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early, then clearing. Lows 23-30. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing snow flurry. Highs 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

We’ll be near the boundary of mild air to the south and Canadian cold air. Currently expecting this region to be on the milder side of the boundary November 20 & 22, the cooler side November 21 & at the end of the period. Despite the boundary nearby, the overall pattern is dry to start with, but the precipitation change may increase toward the end of the period with the possibility of a more significant wave of low pressure entering the region.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

Indications are that we will remain in that battle zone area between the mild to the south and the cold to the north, with additional opportunities for unsettled weather, with dry interludes, and variable temperatures.

46 thoughts on “Sunday November 15 2020 Forecast (8:17AM)”

  1. I totally botched what I was saying yesterday .. brain malfunction.

    The 30-year normals don’t get updated every 30 years. They are updated every 10 years. But yes this can still cause the values to change, sometimes quite noticeably.

      1. Yeah it’s basically every 10 years, so this coming year, and every 10 years, but they always use the average for the 30 year period ending at the end of the decade.

  4. Thanks Tk. Was the weather conference yesterday I though I saw something posted from one of the ch5 Mets .

    1. Yes, but it was a virtual conference, free, and lasted about 2 hours. It was very well done and informative given they only had time for 3 talks over a couple hours. The webinar may end up being posted on their YouTube channel. I’ll see if I can find out for sure.

    1. Did you participate old salty it was virtual I suspect . I would love to hear the thinking from some great meteorological minds .

      1. I did attend for a portion of the presentations.

        I saw Charles Orloff give a presentation on the Cape Tornados
        last July with all sorts of photos. Most interesting.
        Then there was a technical presentation of the meteorological conditions leading up to and during the event. All sorts of
        radar displays and weather model output. Fascinating.
        Then Andy Nash of the Boston NWS office gave a presentation on the changes coming up, one of which was the new National Blend of Models.

        You really missed something.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Loads of helicity and shear for tonight, but virtually no Cape.

    What does the 0-3KM Cape look like? Still have not been able to find that parameter
    on any of the model locations.

    Thanks

  8. The front that is going to pay us a visit tonight delayed the Texans Browns game. Wind swept rains and lightning.

      1. This type of system is more common than you realize in the autumn. We have several of these nearly every autumn, and many of them come in November. Two of them in 1989 alone were potent enough to require tornado watches in New England.

    1. Coldest December on record for Boston, December 1989, and nearly snowless. This was followed by the warmest January on record in 1990. The most significant pattern flip I’ve witnessed during any winter.

  11. JJ I remember that 1989 thanksgiving snow storm well, my senior year high school football game was postponed until the following Saturday. We ended up with 7+ inches of snow from that storm.

    1. We had a good 5 or so inches of fairly wet snow with that one. Woburn at Winchester Thanksgiving Day game was ppd until that Saturday, with Woburn winning on the road. 🙂

  12. Squall line will move through SNE between about 9PM and midnight. It has a long history of producing widespread wind damage and power outages. That will likely continue into SNE.

  13. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 512
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    730 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2020

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EST
    FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

    MAC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-
    160700-
    /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0512.201116T0030Z-201116T0700Z/

    MA
    . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

    BARNSTABLE BERKSHIRE BRISTOL
    DUKES ESSEX FRANKLIN
    HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX
    NANTUCKET NORFOLK PLYMOUTH
    SUFFOLK WORCESTER

  14. Under a rare November severe thunderstorm watch in Worcester county. Need some real dynamics for nocturnal storms in summer never mind mid November. Should be interesting to see how this evolves in the next few hours.

    1. This is a different animal than your summertime stuff in many aspects. With a stronger jet stream as we head into the later autumn, this is all dynamics.

  15. Some of my favorite late fall / winter thunderstorms are the ones with the inversions where the thunder is house rattling. Which won’t be the case tonight other than a close strike.

  18. Tornado Warning for…
    West central Suffolk County in southeastern New York…

    * Until 1000 PM EST.

    * At 928 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
    was located over Ronkonkoma, moving east at 50 mph.

    HAZARD…Tornado.

    SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

    IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
    shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
    Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
    damage is likely.

    * This dangerous storm will be near…
    Medford and Coram around 935 PM EST.
    Middle Island and Yaphank around 940 PM EST.
    Brookhaven National Laboratory around 945 PM EST.
    Manorville and Wading River around 950 PM EST.

  23. Just heard a third of Tolland (town just to my north) out of power and 75 percent of Andover (town to my south) out of power. 240 homes in north Coventry out. This squall line means business!

  25. 36,000 without power in CT.

    Wind reportedly gusted to 76 mph in Greenwich. Bridgeport clocked a wind gust of 61 mph.

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