Storm Flies By, Great Weather Follows

92 Comments

11:30PM

Low pressure will cut across southern New England like an express train Wednesday morning and early afternoon then race away to the northeast during Wednesday night. This will be a short-duration but moderate to high impact system for the region. Heavy rain and gusty winds will impact the morning commute in the Boston area. This time, heavy snow will be confined mainly to the mountains of northern New England. By afternoon, the heaviest precipitation will be on the way out, with most rain done in southern New England.

By Thanksgiving morning, the storm will be long gone, and we will enjoy a bright but chilly holiday.

High pressure will build off the East Coast once again, with a fair and milder period of weather for the remainder of the Thanksgiving weekend.

By early next week, low pressure will approach from the southwest. There are some questions on timing of this system, but except the potential for unsettled weather at any point during the last 3 days of November.

Detailed forecast for the Boston area…

OVERNIGHT: Overcast. Rain becoming moderate to heavy toward dawn. Low around 40. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Moderate to heavy rain early morning (through around 8AM), a period of lighter rain mid morning, then embedded heavier showers west to east late morning (10AM to just before noon). Slight chance of light rain during the afternoon hours. High around 45. Wind N 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH, strongest early in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Low 25-30 inland, 31-36 coast. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly sunny. Temperature rising through the 30s during the high school football games, into the 40s during local travel and dinnertime, highest about 49 before coasting back toward 40 as the sun sinks in the SW sky late day. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Heavy frost forming. Low from near 25 inland valleys to 35 coast. Wind near calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. High 60-65. Wind WSW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 59.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 41. High 54.

MONDAY: Chance of rain. Low 42. High 51.

TUESDAY: Chance of rain. Low 40. High 50.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of showers. Low 44. High 54.

92 thoughts on “Storm Flies By, Great Weather Follows”

  1. Areas that are prone to the chilly side of low temperatures and warmer side of high temperatures could see a diurnal of up to 40 degrees (potential low of 25 and high of 65) on Friday!

  4. What a drive in to Dorchester this morning. Puddles everywhere! Any chance of some flakes on the back end of this?

  5. Here is what Jeff Foxworthy has to say about New Englanders…

    If someone in a Home Depot store offers you assistance and they don’t work there, you live in New England . If you’ve worn shorts and a parka at the same time, you live in New England. If you’ve had a lengthy telephone conversation with someone who dialed a wrong number, you live in New England. If Vacation means going anywhere south …of New York City for the weekend, you live in New England . If you measure distance in hours, you live in New England . If you know several people who have hit a deer more than once, you live in New England . If you have switched from ‘heat’ to ‘A/C’ in the same day and back again, you live in New England . If you can drive 75 mph through 2 feet of snow during a raging blizzard without flinching, you live in New England . If you install security lights on your house and garage but leave both unlocked, you live in New England. If you carry jumpers in your car and your wife knows how to use them, you live in New England . If you design your kid’s Halloween costume to fit over a snowsuit, you live in New England . If the speed limit on the highway is 55 mph you’re going 80 and everybody is passing you, you live in New England . If driving is better in the winter because the potholes are filled with snow, you live in New England . If you know all 4 seasons: almost winter, winter, still winter and road construction, you live in New England . If you have more miles on your snow blower than your car, you live in New England . If you find 10 degrees ‘a little chilly’, you live in New England . If there’s a Dunkin Donuts on every corner, you live in New England . If you think everyone else has a funny accent, you live in New England . If you actually understand these jokes, and forward them to all your New England friends, you live or have lived in New England

    1. Classic. A little commentary on Mr. Foxworthy and his “speech”. I have done much of what he said (except driving 75 MPH in a blizzard, I keep it to 60 or less HAHAHA). I once answered the phone (years ago) to a wrong number, we talked for an hour, and the next day went for a cruise to NH and back to finish the conversation – turns out she and I knew some of the same people but had just never met, and yes I still know her today.

      I think this one is destined for my FB page.

        1. The Home Depot comment was hilarious. I was in there last week looking at flooring to install in my Mom’s House. This older women asked me a question and before I knew it we were talking for a half hour about flooring, children and her grand children. Too Funny!

    3. What a GREAT way to start the day – I laughed louder the more I read. I love foxworthy – thank you for posting!!!

      1. Me too. When we are on the road camping, we turn the satellite radio channel to comedy and he’s one of the best.

  7. nothing of the sort o.s. It smelled like it too but only liquid disappointment.

    It’s 37 now, north wind.

    Cats and Dogs out there!

    1. Retrac,

      Thanks for the response. I was thinking of you when it started pretty heavily last evening. I thought for sure you would have some, at least sleet.
      I guess I was totally and completely off the mark with the 1000-850MB
      thickness analysis! Lol.

      Looking at this morning’s NAM, the 850MB freezing line looks to stay North
      while it is precipitating, so doesn’t look like any change even though you
      are cooling off.

  8. 06Z GFS is pretty disappointing in terms of colder air. It gives us a shot from
    12/2-12/4, but then warms right back up again. Doesn’t look like the regime is about to change anytime soon.

  9. I guess my date of 12/8 will be wrong with the regime change. Henry Marguisty was talking about that the other day with brief shots of cold air and the mild air quickly works back in. However you can get snow when you are in an overall mild weather regime if things come together just like they did for the Pre Halloween Noreaster.
    Thanks Coastal for the post. I needed a good laugh.

  10. I know I’m repeating myself but that SE ridge looks to be persistent. I don’t see how we escape at least some snow this winter but I’ll say that snow lovers south of the mason-dixon line are in for some no-snow pain.

      1. That tells you something…
        We are in a transitional pattern.
        The old pattern is, in fact, breaking down.

  12. That rain got out of here in a hurry, just some left over scattered showers should pass through within the next few hours.

    1. yup, a really quick hitter. In and out in a hurry. Looks pretty dull for quite some time. Perhaps Mother Nature will throw us a curve.

    2. Right on time, behaving as this progressive system was expected to. I knew the Euro was out to lunch with this one with its original idea.

  13. Reports are that the mountains up north have received 8-12″ so far, and by looking at the radar, someone could end up with 16-20″.

  15. Wow Scott a skiers delight!

    Did someone post what the signs are for a change and how it’s decided if it is fact the “real” change or only temporary?

  16. TK, you state above that we are in a transition period. My question is transitional to what and how long will it take?

    1. Transition to a pattern not quite like the one we’ve been in during the past few months, temps not quite as warm relative to normal. Precip probably a little closer to normal with time as well. I’m not sure how long this will take yet… But I’ve seen enough signs that point to it to be pretty sure it’s underway.

  18. This may be old news to some or all of you, but this morning I saw Sarah Wroblewski on Ch. 25 Fox news this morning. My first time seeing her since she left WBZ. She was listing the snow amounts so far for locals in NNE. It appears much of that region will be having an old fashioned “over the river and through the woods” type of Thanksgiving this year. Glad the heavy rain stopped so I should be able to do some last minute errands this afternoon. Other than the late foliage still on trees, temps should be just about normal for SNE for Thanksgiving. I hate rain, but I kind of like the November chill and gloom. 🙂

    I would love to see some good snow for Christmas, but if the current pattern continues into December, the landscape will likely look the same as it does now. Oh well. 🙁

    Have a Happy Thanksgiving everyone! 🙂 🙂

  19. For once, the GFS is showing consistency for the long range, and if what it is showing verifies, we could be in for a very cold December.

      1. Scott,

        From the Coastal’s link:

        One of the key players thus far this fall has been the lack of a Greenland Block. This is a northward bulge in the storm track over Greenland that produces a southward dip in the storm track over the Eastern U.S.

        This sure looks like a northward bulge and to me, it does look
        like a potential blocking pattern. The question is, how long
        does it stay in place????????

        Given the above, here is the 300MB winds for the same period:

        http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F23%2F2011+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=300_wnd_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=384&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

        1. btw, if this pattern were to persist, it sure would continue to supply plenty of cold air to New England.

  20. Scott, Perhaps. Then again, the next GFS run may not have this feature at all?
    although, as you pointed out, it is beginning to show some consistency. We shall see.

  21. Quite amazing stuff in the Midwest, Glasgow, MT was 60 degrees today. This previous Saturday they had a high of 6 degrees.

  24. Eliot Abrams Thanksgiving forecast (Meteorology humor)
    Turkeys will finish thawing Thanksgiving morning, then warm in the oven to a high near 190 in the afternoon. The kitchen will turn hot and humid, and if you bother the cook, be ready for a severe squall or a cold shoulder.

    During the late afternoon and early evening hours, the cold front of a knife will slice through the turkey and cause it to accumulate 1-2 inches on plates. Mashed potatoes will drift across one side while cranberry sauce creates slippery spots on the other, especially if it mixes in as you turn to the green bean casserole. Please pass the gravy.

    A weight watch has been issued for the entire area and we expect intervals of indigestion, with increasing stuffiness around the beltway. During the evening the turkey will diminish and taper off to leftovers and drop to a low of 34 in the refrigerator.

    Looking ahead to Friday and Saturday: high pressure to eat sandwiches; flurries of leftovers can be expected both days with a 50% chance of scattered soup during the midday hours. We expect a warming trend baste on where soup develops.

    3. Last year at the storm conference, I’m sitting at a table and who sits down, but Eliot Abrams. I couldnt believe it. I have listened to his forecasts on BZ radio for many years and when we camp in northern New England and BZ is the only station that seems to come in, its his forecasts that I hear…..As I recall, he also gave a similarly humorous presentation at the conference.

  25. Wow this is the week for eating. It started with my wife making her moms stuffing on tuesday. Today started with my famous sauce with 32 meatballs and 20 sausages let it cook for six hours. We also had a bluberry pie in the oven followed by pumkin. Add to that the squash and turnup, quick break and more baking to do. Thes are snacks as going to Cambridge for turkey day. Thank god for no blockages I am on a tear.

  28. So far, this is the 8th longest amount of time it has taken in any winter in Boston to reach 32 degrees — and still counting.

    1. Boston may get down to 32 tonight…we will see. If we continue in the same regime, Boston may never get there for the rest of the year although climatology would probably take charge eventually regardless.

        1. When you think about it, taken as a whole, New England has already had a large amount of snow this autumn. Thank goodness are snow totals arent for say, Worcester or North Conway, NH.

  29. Todd just mentioned in his 6:00 pm newscast that there is potential for cold rain/wet snow for next Wednesday as the pattern shifts…other mets and NWS show absolutely no signs of this in their extended forecasts and the CPC continues showing same old, same old warmth.

    Does anyone else here see this potential??? What does Todd see???

      1. I watched Harvey and he made no mention of it, but unfortunately Ch. 5 chooses to go with only a 5-day forecast. I agree that Harvey and Barry are the best. Too bad that it is only a matter of time for their retirement at some point.

        1. I thought for sure I heard that in one of his three forcasts, could be wrong though. But in ch7 blog they made mention of it.

  30. Just read the NWS out of NY and the EURO is show signs of some sort of coastal low developing late tues into late wed. GFS has phasing of cut off low with the trough becoming negatively tilted on the east coast.

    1. Thanks Jimmy for that info. I have a feeling though that if it is a pattern shift, it will be very temporary like the Halloween storm. Frankly, I just don’t see that SE ridge breaking down without one heck of a fight.

    2. However the cold air will be absent with that one, but cold air will follow in behind it, and it may be with us for awhile.

  31. I think were going to need a big storm to come to change this pattern but as I said earlier just like with the pre halloween Noreaster you could get snow even an overall mild weather regime if the ingredients come together and boy did they come together for that storm system.

    1. From what the GFS was showing, that storm for the 30th would be the pattern changer. But that’s the GFS…

  36. Not to depress everyone, but this storm system was evidently quite a snowstorm for New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and now in process on Cape Breton Island….Every webcam that I click on out there shows snow and in some cases, a lot of it.

    1. examples of webcams…..Halls Harbour Web cam, Nova Scotia Highway Cams, New Brunswick Highway Cams. Many of the highway cams are dark, but a few are evidently situated near road lights.

  38. Its painful as a snowlover when its that close. Reminds me of the winter of 09-10 when the Mid Atlantic got hammered and those storms found away to miss us with the exception of the one back on the 19th of December.

  40. Thanks for all your Thanksgiving wishes!

    Vicki – in case I don’t post tomorrow – Happy Thanksgiving to your and your family!

    TK – Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family too! I also want to thank you for this blog. I am really grateful for all the people I have talked to and I hope someday we can all meet.

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