Thursday November 19 2020 Forecast (8:30AM)

23 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

Discussion…

Yesterday’s anomalous cold and last night’s clear sky and lighter wind combined to set up one cold start to this morning, but as high pressure sinks to the south of New England we begin a moderation in short order, but that moderation will be tempered a little today due to a very low launching pad and limited daylight to help warm things up – it’s that time of year! A warm front with some high cloudiness will pass by today as well, and while filtering the sunshine at times today, it will lead to helping accelerate the warm-up on Friday, which will end up much milder. We’ll remain on the mild side of this front into early Saturday, but high pressure in eastern Canada will push the boundary back to the south during Saturday, shifting our wind to north and northeast later Saturday into Sunday, with cooler air (though not as cold as recently) settling in. During Sunday, however, a warm front will approach the region with increasing cloudiness and we may even deal with some wet weather before the day is done. This is more likely to take place Sunday night into Monday as low pressure tracks north of the region, finally pushing its cold front across the region later Monday, at which time any rain threat will end, just in time for the arrival of a new cold air mass from Canada Monday night.

Details…

TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH, gusts to 20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouding over. Highs 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 42-49. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely through early afternoon. Breaking clouds later in the day. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to W late.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

Guidance all over the place, with different runs of the same model somewhat inconsistent and varying solutions between models, so they’re not a lot of help in general, but what appears to be is that we’ll be in a fairly active pattern, as previously hinted at, being near a battle between cold air in Canada and warmer air to our south. Initially, cold high pressure wins the battle with dry weather and below normal temperatures November 24. The November 25-26 period will likely bring a period of unsettled weather as low pressure moves into the Northeast via the Ohio Valley, with rain favored over any other precipitation type as cold air retreats quickly. Other than that, the detail of timing remains uncertain and will be fine-tuned. Briefly drier about November 27 before the next unsettled system moves through at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

The overall pattern will be fast-flowing, zonal (west-to-east), with our region still sitting in the battle zone between cold north and warm south. While none of the disturbances to come through appear they’d have much time to evolve into major storms, we should deal with a couple of episodes of precipitation and frequent air mass changes, but no very large temperature departures from seasonal averages that last any length of time.

23 thoughts on “Thursday November 19 2020 Forecast (8:30AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Made as low as 21 and that was at 3:21 this morning. By 6:30 AM it was 22 and it is currently 28.

    So channel 5 presented their Winter forecast with Harvey
    and Judah Cohen. Once again, some hedging.
    The graphic from Harvey stated slightly above average snow
    but then Dr. Cohen said very clearly that his gut was saying
    below average snow. So which is it fellas. C’mom now.

    I think I am forced to go with BELOW average. The question is by how much????????????????

    1. Some different singles in both directions but feels within it will be less . It was quite hot over there correct ?? He also felt it would be a second half producer like February snow . Figures I’ll be out 4-6 weeks soon and after 12/2 I’ll be rooting fit a big one .

          1. he he he
            Frankly with everything that is going on, I probably won’t give 2 shits what happens with the weather this
            Winter 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. You can make a case for either, which sounds wishy washy, but actually isn’t. Temperature forecasts are much easier to make than precipitation / snowfall forecasts. Not that temps are “easy”. It’s just easier to pick out longer term patterns that lead to a particular temperature regime versus a precipitation one, and especially snowfall when you try to forecast for an area often near a rain vs. snow battle zone.

      I think this “winter” it’s going to come down being able to string a few things together. It’s going to take about 5 or 6 systems that we get vs. not getting that will make the difference in snowfall departures, and that will come down to details we won’t be able to determine more than just days in advance, let alone on a 3+ month forecast. When I write mine, I’ll take my best stab at it and then we’ll see how it goes. I have an idea of how I think it will play out, yet I’m fully prepared to be schooled by mother nature. 😉

  3. If all goes well, my winter forecast will be posted tomorrow. At the latest, November 22. I’m juggling an inordinate amount of tasks over the next several days so we’ll see how many I drop. 😉

  4. Quick thoughts on the 12z’s regarding next week’s weather…
    GFS timing is too fast.
    ECMWF timing is too slow.

  6. Look forward to your thoughts TK.

    My guess well above average temps but average snow. Warmers doesn’t mean no snow around these parts. People seems to forget that.

    1. I recorded their 5PM newscast to check out their outlook. Haven’t watched yet.

      Not sure if I agree with “lacklustre” but I suppose that depends on what we are talking about specifically. We’re probably going to be in a transition zone between a warm Southeast ridge & plenty of Canadian cold for a good part of the winter. It’s hard to stay lacklustre if that’s the case. But I suppose we will see. 🙂

  8. https://merrimackvalleyweather796095653.wordpress.com/seasonal-outlooks/ My thoughts on this winter. High confidence for warm and dry south. High confidence for warmer than average temperatures for the east. i am seeing mix signals for the northern tier in terms of snowfall. Can not wait to see what you have to say TK. I am leaning average for snowfall for most in New England but below average southern areas. I feel its going to be right near that boarder and this could easily blow up in my face if the AO truly breaks second half of this season.

    1. My forecast is essentially written in my head, just not on my computer yet. Snowfall forecast may not be what people are expecting from me.

  9. I’ll repost this tomorrow. I know a lot of people cannot be with families next Thursday. I of course am one. Zoom has waived the 40 minute meeting limit for its free account on Thursday. There truly are angels among us

    https://imgur.com/a/kXfHbaC

    2. That is wonderful. It’s not “the same” but it’s better than nothing, and this will mean a lot to many people.

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