DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

Discussion…

A warm front has passed by the region and while it introduces a mild air mass today it will also open the door for windy conditions as we have a fairly tight pressure gradient between low pressure passing to the north and an elongated area of high pressure to the south. The low to the north is parenting a cold front which will slip southeastward across the region tonight and early Saturday but fairly innocuously other than some clouds. What it will do is shift the wind from southwest to northwest, but it will diminish somewhat as the pressure gradient loosens up as high pressure approaches New England via the Great Lakes. The center of this new high pressure area will slide eastward, passing to our north, and this will turn the wind easterly by Sunday when we’ll have both increasing low level moisture off the ocean and high level moisture from the frontal boundary starting its return as a warm front. That front may or may not make it all the way through the region Sunday night and Monday, and the position of that boundary makes Monday’s high temperature forecast a challenge, but what will be the case during Sunday night and Monday as we’ll have a greater opportunity for wet weather. Finally, as a cold (or occluded front depending on the location of the warm front) passes through during Monday it will shift the wind back to the west again and drier air will return by the end of the day. Along with this will come another shot of chilly air which we will feel Tuesday as high pressure approaches from the west, pushing that cold air right out of Canada and into New England.

Details…

TODAY: Clouds eventually give way to sun. Highs 53-60. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Drizzle possible eastern coastal areas. Highs 46-53. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 42-49. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely through early afternoon. Areas of fog and drizzle in the morning. Breaking clouds later in the day. Highs 48-55, coolest southern NH and northeastern MA. Wind SE 5-15 MPH in southern NH and northeastern MA, SW 5-15 MPH elsewhere, shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts all areas by late day.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

We continue to see divergent and variable guidance which is of limited help. My feel for the situation at this point says this area sees clouds and milder air return November 25 with wet weather late day or at night, a small bubble of high pressure saving Thanksgiving Day from rainfall, so a drier day but with limited sun. Two more systems both with rain chances in an overall mild pattern around November 27 and 29. Again remember that the uncertainty and low confidence level of forecasts this far out leave the door open for significant adjustments.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

The overall pattern will be fast-flowing, zonal (west-to-east), with our region still sitting in the battle zone between cold north and warm south. While none of the disturbances to come through appear they’d have much time to evolve into major storms, we should deal with a couple of episodes of precipitation and frequent air mass changes, but no very large temperature departures from seasonal averages that last any length of time.