Monday November 23 2020 Forecast (8:27AM)

51 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

Discussion…

Thanksgiving Week. I know that travel will be far less than usual, but there will still be some people on the road, depending on their situations, for errands and visits leading up to and including the holiday on Thursday, so it’s still an important forecast for moving about during these days. This morning, a warm front divides the WHW forecast area in half, still in the cool air in most areas north of I-90 while areas to the south are warmer and more humid, and this front is trying to push northward, and as previously stated, will probably never quite make it all the way through southern NH before a strong cold front from the west comes through the entire region. Widespread moderate to occasionally heavy showers will accompany this system as it passes through, and there may even be some thunder with it. This has already been occurring in parts of the region (South Coast, RI). Areas prone to flooding will likely see some, and this may be worsened by some leaf-clogged storm drains. Keep that in mind if driving. By the end of the day, we’ll be seeing the arrival of a cold Canadian air mass via the Great Lakes, and as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes region through Tuesday, we’ll see a period of dry, breezy, and chilly November weather. This won’t last long, however, as the high will slide to the east and be offshore by Wednesday. But it’s not going to be just a simple case of warming right back up on Wednesday. We’ll see clouds increase ahead of a warm front, and by the end of the day some precipitation may be generated by the approach of that front, which will probably get into the South Coast region with no issue and through the Providence / Hartford area and into Boston’s southern suburbs as well, but how far north of there it gets is in question. Models tend to handle this poorly, moving the warm air too far north too quickly, although some of the guidance is already catching on that this front may never quite make it as far north as northern MA and southern NH at all, and eventually a wave of low pressure will ripple along it and move over or even just south of a lot of the region through Thanksgiving Day, which looks like an overcast and wet day. But before that happens, we may have an issue with some icing over interior southern NH and northern MA as the onset of rain/drizzle may be met with surface temperatures slightly below freezing there Wednesday evening. Regardless of how this plays out, after our unsettled Thanksgiving, conditions improve for Friday, which will be a milder and mostly dry day, although I cannot rule out a couple showers due to a disturbance moving across the region.

Details…

TODAY: Overcast through early afternoon with widespread showers, some heavy, including embedded thunderstorms in some locations. Street and parking lot flooding may occur where heavier showers are occurring. Showers end and clouds break later in the day, and a clearing line may approach from the west quickly enough for the sun to appear before setting, at least in areas to the west. Highs 48-55 southern NH and northern MA, 55-62 to the south. Wind SE 5-15 MPH in southern NH and northeastern MA, SW 5-15 MPH elsewhere, shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts all areas by late day.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early sun, then becoming cloudy. Highs 37-44 southern NH and northern MA, 45-52 elsewhere. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain/drizzle, with the potential for some icing interior southern NH and north central MA. Lows 31-38 southern NH and north central MA, 38-45 interior central MA to northeastern MA, and 45-52 in areas to the south during the evening. Temperatures may rise slightly overnight. Wind NE to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Cloudy. Rain likely in the morning. Chance of a few lingering showers or some drizzle in the afternoon. Highs 40-47 southern NH and northern MA, 48-55 to the south. Wind E to SE around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 35-42. Wind NE to NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing shower. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

If I wrote “I really don’t know” in this space it would be reasonably accurate. The insane model divergence tries to lead forecasters astray. Going to keep November 28-29 mainly dry and lean toward November 30 for the next unsettled system which would be in the form of rain. Drier but somewhat colder as December arrives, but low confidence on that as well.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 3-7)

Leaving this the same as yesterday: Highly uncertain outlook with many questions to be answered about the pattern’s evolution, but the scenario I feel is most likely looking at it this far in advance is for dry but seasonably chilly weather early in the period, briefly milder and still dry mid period, and a possible flip to colder with a storm threat at the end of the period, although we may be very near a boundary of warmth to the south with much colder air to the north, so that would set-up a vast range of how the weather could turn out here.

51 thoughts on “Monday November 23 2020 Forecast (8:27AM)”

  3. I said it in my summary above, but if you’re in the car over the next few hours, there may be some significant road and parking lot flooding. Leaves are clogging some storm drains and this makes the situation worse.

  4. Thanks TK. Looks like quite a fire hose over SNE this morning. Definitely going to be some roadway issues with that.

      1. I love the firehose reference. For some reason that always makes me laugh. 🙂

        Please feel free to pick apart my outlook. If there is something you don’t agree with, let me know. I’d love to hear your reasoning. As I was going along making this, I felt pretty good about December other than maybe that gamble on higher snowfall. January & February didn’t bother me, but I feel like I took a huge risk on March – some hard core guesswork there. 😉

  5. Thank you, TK.

    Read the winter forecast. You put a lot of effort into this, TK. It paid off. You provide a long-range forecast and at the same time explain all the factors involved (and caveats). Great job!

    1. Thank you. It was fun to make (maybe a bit frustrating). It took my son and me about 6 hours total to write our first internet single earlier this year. It probably took me about the same amount of time in total to come up with this forecast, worded the way I wanted to… 😉

  9. good morning. Raining pretty good here with 0.66 inch so far.

    DARK, DARK, DARK morning to say the least!

    I made a post to you Winter Forecast, but if you don’t mind,
    here is part of it:

    Thank you for taking the time and effort to put your Winter forecast together. I can imagine it took some doing and we all very much appreciate it. It was a most impressive write-up.

    So, let me put some numbers to each month to come up
    with a total for Boston. You said 45-50 inches. I am going to supply possible numbers to get to around 47 inches.

    October: 4.3
    November: 0.0
    December: 10.0
    January: 10.0
    February: 6.0
    March: 17.0

    Total: 47.3 inches

    Of course each month could go up or down a bit to get the same number, but You get the idea.

    Is this something along the lines of what you envision?

    Many thanks

    1. That’s a reasonable representation of how I think we would arrive at that number. That would not seem like a snowy winter (until right at the end). And I guess by definition, it would not be a snowy winter, just kind of a normal one, numbers-wise, but arriving there slightly unconventionally.

  11. If this doesn’t end our long term drought I don’t know what will. Then hopefully, the Thanksgiving rains will give us a nice surplus in the ground for the upcoming winter since it has yet to freeze.

    1. The rainfall deficit for the year-to-date (before this system) is 7 to 14 inches across the region. This will NOT end the drought.

    2. The drought is well in retreat now. Today’s event, the lighter event midweek, and a good chance for more precip to end the month and/or start next month will pretty much be the final nails. Still a bit of a longer term deficit (worse in some areas than others) but yes, it’s on it’s way out.

      1. Eh, TK disagrees, and I do see his point. Definitely depends on the metric (short term vs long term). At least on the commonly referenced drought monitor, expect most of SNE to be in D1 (moderate drought) or less going forward.

        1. Yes, that is correct. The short vs. long is definitely a determining factor. For example, the local pond, while still below the damn, looks a lot more “normal” recently.

  12. Captain mentioned it above, interesting feature heading towards southeast MA. I would lean more towards a meso-low driven wind threat as opposed to a tornado threat but definitely has rotation and is warned over the waters for waterspout potential.

  18. From Meteorologist Greg Diamond
    Prior to today @NWSBoston had never issued a tornado warning in the month of November dating back to 1986 (as far back as records go)

  19. Not related to weather, but I figured I’d post a brief message on the Patriots. It’s bizarre, but I’ve found this team fun to watch. And I did not find last year’s team fun to watch. I certainly realize this year’s team isn’t going anywhere. But, many of the games are close and interesting. I’m also impressed by players that appear to be overachieving. The list includes Byrd, Meyers, Harris, Burkhead, and Jackson. Also, what I appreciate about Cam Newton is that he’s honest in his self-assessment, and also quite articulate.

    1. Agree. There are people just dismissing them as a team that “sucks”. That would mean that 1) You think that the team is supposed to have a perfect season, and/or 2) You are not actually watching the games and just looking at the final score. 🙂

      1. The Patriots could easily only have 2 losses this season. I also feel that this season will have a huge * next to it. This season has showed that Meyers, Byrd and Harris are good. I also feel that Newton if he comes back would be better next season with an off season and another receiver in the draft. Would also hope that the Patriots select a QB to groom.

        1. It will be hard to measure this season with others for obvious reasons. I generally agree with your thoughts.

          1. Boston sports teams are now officially “0 for 2020”. Just as well I suppose as a traditional Duckboat Parade would have been unlikely unless it was “virtual”….blah.

            The stumbling, bumbling Patriots of the 1960s & 70s are slowly but surely making a comeback for the foreseeable future I’m afraid. They haven’t been truly blown out yet but just a matter of time. Yes, at least the games are entertaining but how much longer?

                1. Somebody has to continue the tradition. While I am a Boston sports fan, I’m anything but “typical”. 😉

  20. I’ve already picked out and fixed about 4 typos in my winter forecast, so if anybody sees any glaring errors that I missed, please let me know. That forecast was written in probably a dozen separate typing sessions over a 4 or 5 day period, some of them very late at night or very early in the morning. There are bound to be more mistakes than I’ve already found. 😛

  21. Thanks TK !

    Is the thunder and lightning done ? Can I relax ?? 🙂 🙂

    That squall line around Columbus Day weekend and now this late morning and into the early afternoon with enough thunder and lightning for me ………. more than all summer.

  22. With regards to sports above ….

    I´m hoping for 2 or 3 titles from the Celtics in the next 5 to 8 years.

    I respectively submit that the Pats have a bottom 5 roster talentwise in the NFL. That they are 4-6 with this talent is somewhat amazing to me.

    To illustrate their talent level, here is what some teams are working with ….

    Chiefs: Kelce, Hill, Hillaire (RB)
    Saints: Kamara, Michael Thomas
    Cardinals: Hopkins and Kyler Murray (Wait til you see this kid this weekend against the Pats)
    Bills: Stephon Diggs
    Titans: Derrick Henry
    Packers: Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers

    and I could go on and on …….

    so, the Pats need serious upgrades in talent across the board an if you gave any other coach their roster, they probably would be 2-8 or 1-9. Its just that GM Belichick is not great at the draft.

    1. I absolutely agree with you Tom regarding the Patriots. I can easily see 1-4 win seasons for awhile.

      As for the Celtics, I see ZERO titles for the 2020’s…not even the NBA Finals.
      Where do you see 2-3 titles??

      1. Starters: Tatum, Brown, Theis/Thompson, Smart, Walker

        Bench: Teague, Theis/Thompson, Grant Williams, Nesmith

        That´s a pretty deep 9 man rotation.

        They can now compete better in the middle with Tristan Thompson against Embiid and a driving Giannis.

        And, now that Brown and Tatum are locked up, other free agents will want to sign with the Celtics in 2 years once Tristan Thompson and Jeff Teague move on.

        The Celts will have a chance at the title now for many years in a row. I figure they break through at least twice.

    2. I think the Patriots will be back in the mix next season. Home field advantage will be back in 2021 and the Patriots are a team that needs the off season to be good. I would think even with Brady this season, the Patriots would have a .500 record. Besides for two games the patriots been in every game. The defense though has disappointed as a unit.

  23. Both 12z GFS and EURO on today´s run have a set-up at hr 240 that grabs one´s attention.

    One potential issue, there appears to be very little polar air around, never mind arctic air. Wow …………

  24. Tweet from Jeopardy! about production starting back up and the first in a series of guest hosts.
    We will resume production on 11/30 with a series of interim guest hosts from the Jeopardy! family – starting with Ken Jennings. Additional guest hosts to be announced.

  25. Internet out all day. Discovered it was rain related when our outside lights didn’t come on at dusk.

    We had 1.96.

    I am not pleased with the pats for not keeping Brady. I can’t believe anyone is surprised by that since I will always stand with folks I believe are not treated well. Maybe I’ll move past that. I usually do but at my own speed

  26. Forgot to post this tweet earlier from Jeopardy!
    As we remember and celebrate the life of Alex Trebek, we will air 10 of his best episodes the weeks of 12/21 and 12/28, and air his final week of episodes starting 1/4.

  27. I have a feeling Ken Jennings will be named the new host of Jeopardy! once these interim hosts have their opportunity to host.

  28. While I am not a regular viewer of “Jeopardy!”, only catching occasional episodes, I am pleased and happy with how they are winding down Alex’s shows, with the best-of and then the final run of episodes. I’ll probably DVR those to watch coming out of the holiday season.

    I always understand people have their opinions, and I remember thinking “how can you replace Bob Barker?” when he retired from TPIR. Drew Carey has done an admirable job. No, he’s not Bob Barker, but should he have had to be? He’s Drew Carey, and he’s a good host. I have a feeling Mr. Jennings will ultimately be the “permanent” replacement for Alex, and I think that would be great. Whomever they chose, I’ll applaud the person for stepping into that role.

    New weather post…

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