13 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – November 24 2020”
This past Sunday, there was a segment on 60 Minutes that dealt with “Long Haulers” who suffer from very debilitating conditions soon after recovery from Covid-19. They are usually very healthy (mostly women) in their 20s-40s.
I did notice one thing they had in common was that they suffered from Covid-19 back in “March”. This was my personal observation.
Joshua, are these “Long Haulers” more likely Covid-19 sufferers during the early days of the pandemic as opposed to more recently?
It’s true that most of the “long haulers” you see in the news reports were infected early on. In some ways, they’re the most interesting cohort because they’ve been sick for more than 6 months.
But, I’ve seen some evidence of long-haul patients who got sick in the late spring and early summer and still exhibit symptoms. Of course, if someone was infected in summer or early fall we won’t know if they’re a long hauler until, say, late fall or early winter.
It certainly doesn’t appear that Trump is going to be a “long hauler”. I wonder if that special “cocktail” has something to do with it?
Thanks again for your insight Joshua.
Well, analyzing the numbers today it’s definitely a feeling of déjà vu. Europe’s new daily case numbers are crashing. Hospitalizations are past peak and decreasing almost everywhere. Deaths are still high as they are a lagging indicator.
European R0 is below 1 in almost every country (Sweden is an exception). This means spread of the virus is diminishing – in some cases rapidly – as a result of a robust set of measures.
France is lifting the most severe restrictions today. But, it’s not exactly laissez-faire. Restaurants will remain closed until late January, for example. Though you can now venture out beyond a 5km radius, you can’t go farther than a 20km radius. Shops and cinemas are reopening, with strict capacity limits. Museums and other public spaces will reopen in 3 weeks. Gatherings of up to 10 will be permitted between now and mid December, and the size will increase to 30 after mid December. The French lockdown measures are probably the strictest in Europe, in that you must have a permit on you at all times when you leave the house. That permit will grant you the ability to do essential things like grocery shopping, or jogging within a 5 or 20km radius, etc …
Meanwhile, in the U.S. our numbers look horrific. For a few weeks we could say that Europe was outpacing the U.S. in terms of case and even hospitalization growth. Well, that lasted a few weeks. But, the main trend that has been in place since April is now firmly reasserting itself: U.S. is back in the lead in new daily cases and hospitalizations, and will soon be leading in new daily reported deaths. And, as I’ve said before, it wouldn’t surprise me that by late December – 1 month from now – the U.S. has the worst death rate of all industrialized countries. We’re currently number 3, which is really disgraceful . But, with Spain and Belgium in retreat and the U.S. accelerating in terms of deaths, we’re going to eventually wind up number 1.
Well, at least Europe is slowly getting better now. Does this mean that the U.S. turns the corner as well sometime over the upcoming winter?
That French lockdown is BEYOND draconian!
True. It wouldn’t go down well here.
Your question, Philip, is a good one. The U.S. is doing precious little to stop the spread. Nevertheless, there comes a point when the virus just won’t be able to find new hosts, or people without T-cell (cross-reactive) immunity. The rate we’re going the vaccine will almost be superfluous, at least for many.
Deaths from the 2nd wave are peaking in Europe and beginning to peak here. 2,187 reported Covid-19 deaths today, most since late April/early May. Globally, close to 12,000 deaths reported (record).
Cautiously optimistic we’ve peaked in terms of new daily cases. But, we still must wait until next week and the week after to judge the post-Thanksgiving effect. Unfortunately, even if we go down from this peak at a certain point it’s so darn high that I’m genuinely concerned the vaccines will not be here in time for many. We’ve just let it burn – and continue to – through the population to a horrifying degree.
What gets me so irate at people like Scott Atlas (and the whole Great Barrington Declaration cult) is their ignorance. Atlas is a doctor and intelligent. But, he knows very little about what is actually happening in the world around him. He offers Sweden as the `right’ solution because in his view it didn’t lock down and is reaching herd immunity.
Well, regarding herd immunity it’s crystal clear Sweden isn’t there at all. Sweden’s top infectious disease expert Anders Tegnell stated today that the country has not seen evidence of herd immunity slowing the spread of the coronavirus in the country. Its second wave is expanding, along with hospitalizations and deaths.
“We see no signs of immunity in the population that are slowing down the infection right now,” Tegnell said.
“But, we definitely had a virtual lockdown,” Tegnell added. “Swedes have changed their behavior enormously. We stopped traveling even more than our neighboring countries. The airports had no flights anywhere, the trains were running at a few per cent of normal service, so there were enormous changes in society.”
He also talked about bar closures, restaurants with 25% capacity, no gatherings at all with more than 50 people, inside or outside.
I must say, nowhere in America did we even have the degree of virtual lockdown that Sweden had, especially regarding travel and just people being out and about. Even in Massachusetts the traffic slowdown lasted all of about 3 weeks or so, and it wasn’t ever a standstill like in Sweden. Yet, Atlas believes his own misperception. And then has the audacity to yell on Twitter “take back your freedom … don’t let governors impede you.” I don’t get it.
C-19 for 11-25 is ready.
Really?!? Guess again! 😉
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This past Sunday, there was a segment on 60 Minutes that dealt with “Long Haulers” who suffer from very debilitating conditions soon after recovery from Covid-19. They are usually very healthy (mostly women) in their 20s-40s.
I did notice one thing they had in common was that they suffered from Covid-19 back in “March”. This was my personal observation.
Joshua, are these “Long Haulers” more likely Covid-19 sufferers during the early days of the pandemic as opposed to more recently?
It’s true that most of the “long haulers” you see in the news reports were infected early on. In some ways, they’re the most interesting cohort because they’ve been sick for more than 6 months.
But, I’ve seen some evidence of long-haul patients who got sick in the late spring and early summer and still exhibit symptoms. Of course, if someone was infected in summer or early fall we won’t know if they’re a long hauler until, say, late fall or early winter.
It certainly doesn’t appear that Trump is going to be a “long hauler”. I wonder if that special “cocktail” has something to do with it?
Thanks again for your insight Joshua.
Well, analyzing the numbers today it’s definitely a feeling of déjà vu. Europe’s new daily case numbers are crashing. Hospitalizations are past peak and decreasing almost everywhere. Deaths are still high as they are a lagging indicator.
European R0 is below 1 in almost every country (Sweden is an exception). This means spread of the virus is diminishing – in some cases rapidly – as a result of a robust set of measures.
France is lifting the most severe restrictions today. But, it’s not exactly laissez-faire. Restaurants will remain closed until late January, for example. Though you can now venture out beyond a 5km radius, you can’t go farther than a 20km radius. Shops and cinemas are reopening, with strict capacity limits. Museums and other public spaces will reopen in 3 weeks. Gatherings of up to 10 will be permitted between now and mid December, and the size will increase to 30 after mid December. The French lockdown measures are probably the strictest in Europe, in that you must have a permit on you at all times when you leave the house. That permit will grant you the ability to do essential things like grocery shopping, or jogging within a 5 or 20km radius, etc …
Meanwhile, in the U.S. our numbers look horrific. For a few weeks we could say that Europe was outpacing the U.S. in terms of case and even hospitalization growth. Well, that lasted a few weeks. But, the main trend that has been in place since April is now firmly reasserting itself: U.S. is back in the lead in new daily cases and hospitalizations, and will soon be leading in new daily reported deaths. And, as I’ve said before, it wouldn’t surprise me that by late December – 1 month from now – the U.S. has the worst death rate of all industrialized countries. We’re currently number 3, which is really disgraceful . But, with Spain and Belgium in retreat and the U.S. accelerating in terms of deaths, we’re going to eventually wind up number 1.
Well, at least Europe is slowly getting better now. Does this mean that the U.S. turns the corner as well sometime over the upcoming winter?
That French lockdown is BEYOND draconian!
True. It wouldn’t go down well here.
Your question, Philip, is a good one. The U.S. is doing precious little to stop the spread. Nevertheless, there comes a point when the virus just won’t be able to find new hosts, or people without T-cell (cross-reactive) immunity. The rate we’re going the vaccine will almost be superfluous, at least for many.
Deaths from the 2nd wave are peaking in Europe and beginning to peak here. 2,187 reported Covid-19 deaths today, most since late April/early May. Globally, close to 12,000 deaths reported (record).
Cautiously optimistic we’ve peaked in terms of new daily cases. But, we still must wait until next week and the week after to judge the post-Thanksgiving effect. Unfortunately, even if we go down from this peak at a certain point it’s so darn high that I’m genuinely concerned the vaccines will not be here in time for many. We’ve just let it burn – and continue to – through the population to a horrifying degree.
What gets me so irate at people like Scott Atlas (and the whole Great Barrington Declaration cult) is their ignorance. Atlas is a doctor and intelligent. But, he knows very little about what is actually happening in the world around him. He offers Sweden as the `right’ solution because in his view it didn’t lock down and is reaching herd immunity.
Well, regarding herd immunity it’s crystal clear Sweden isn’t there at all. Sweden’s top infectious disease expert Anders Tegnell stated today that the country has not seen evidence of herd immunity slowing the spread of the coronavirus in the country. Its second wave is expanding, along with hospitalizations and deaths.
“We see no signs of immunity in the population that are slowing down the infection right now,” Tegnell said.
“But, we definitely had a virtual lockdown,” Tegnell added. “Swedes have changed their behavior enormously. We stopped traveling even more than our neighboring countries. The airports had no flights anywhere, the trains were running at a few per cent of normal service, so there were enormous changes in society.”
He also talked about bar closures, restaurants with 25% capacity, no gatherings at all with more than 50 people, inside or outside.
I must say, nowhere in America did we even have the degree of virtual lockdown that Sweden had, especially regarding travel and just people being out and about. Even in Massachusetts the traffic slowdown lasted all of about 3 weeks or so, and it wasn’t ever a standstill like in Sweden. Yet, Atlas believes his own misperception. And then has the audacity to yell on Twitter “take back your freedom … don’t let governors impede you.” I don’t get it.
C-19 for 11-25 is ready.
Really?!? Guess again! 😉