Friday November 27 2020 Forecast (9:15AM)

46 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

Discussion…

A little bonus sunshine to start your Friday in much of the WHW forecast area as a batch of drier air came in during the pre-dawn hours to obliterate the fog and low clouds. But stratocumulus clouds are already making a comeback from west to east and they will likely dominate the sky a good portion of the day with abundant low level moisture to sustain them. Nevertheless, we’re in a fairly mild air mass, so it will be a comfortable day by late November standards. A weak cold front will cross the region from west to east on Saturday, with some additional cloudiness, although I am leaning away from any rain shower threat. This front will bring slightly cooler air into the region through Sunday, which itself will be a nice day as high pressure moves across the region. And then things get a little more fun for the last day of November (Monday) and first of December (Tuesday). A more amplified upper level pattern puts a deeper trough of low pressure into the eastern US and in response a fairly impressive surface storm system will get going, and track into the Great Lakes. That track puts our area on the mild side of the storm and we can expect a decent shot of rain and wind later Monday as a result. We’ll get into some drying by Tuesday as the cold front trailing that low pushes offshore, but plenty of upper level energy means that we’ll have additional rain shower chances Tuesday.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 49-56. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 31-38. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Thickening clouds. Numerous rain showers arrive west to east midday and afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind SE to S increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast evening with widespread rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Breaking clouds overnight with a chance of addition rain showers. Lows 45-52. Wind S 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 2-6)

Low pressure in eastern Canada sends a trough through the Northeast and may trigger a few rain and/or snow showers as it turns colder Decmeber 2. High pressure passing south of the region brings fair, cool, breezy weaher December 3 and dry, seasonably cool and more tranquil weather December 4. December 5-6 weekend – starts fair and chilly, ends with rain/mix/snow threat as we’ll have to watch low pressure approaching from the southwest. Too early to know the track and details of this potential system.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 7-11)

Indications of some blocking in the pattern which could result in near to below normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation, including wintry weather chances, during this period.

46 thoughts on “Friday November 27 2020 Forecast (9:15AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK. I hope all had a wonderful
    Thanksgiving Day.

    We use a shopping service and we had our shopper attempt to pick up a fresh chicken for the 2 of us on Tuesday, as a turkey was just way too much! Store was SOLD OUT! Crap. So we received said text and decided to get chicken cutlets. A bit later my wife was on the phone with a girl friend and told her the situation. The friend asked why we didn’t get a roast beef. So I texted the shopper and caught her in the check out line. She took the groceries to the car and returned to the stored and grabbed us a beautiful Petite Sirloin roast.

    So we Had roast beef for Thanksgiving and it was fabulous.

    Roast beef sandwiches for lunch today. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  2. Thanks, TK. Short-lived sunshine now,.

    JpDave, i would call that ‘make hay while the sun shines” – at least it was a delicious dinner!

      1. JPD, glad your dinner worked out! Roast beef waaaaay better than chicken cutlets any time, not just the holidays.

        Word of advice for next time. Pick up your chicken a week before. That’s what I did! 🙂

  4. Thank you, TK.

    My song of the day is a tune most of you will not know, but was a top-of-the-charts hit in December 1980 throughout Europe. It’s my all-time favorite pop `Christmas’ tune. It is very British. Turns out it’s my daughter’s English boyfriend’s favorite, too. I did now know that until this morning when I heard from Lisa after I sent her the youtube video of the song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HkJHApgKqw

  5. Thanks TK!

    0.29 at Logan yesterday?!?

    So much for those “futurecast” radars.

    Not that I’m complaining all that much since I was out walking on an errand yesterday morning anyway but I was expecting downpours but just a relatively light rain and even some lulls. Even a glimpse of sun just prior to noon. At least Boston to Worcester is now out of “ drought” status and is only “abnormally dry”.

    1. It was a convective event. Those precipitation amounts are never uniform. Those types of events result in quite a bit of variability. The forecast was essentially right on target. I figured 0.25-1.00 inch for most of the region. That certainly falls into that range.

  6. Looking forward to those “wintry” potentials the first half of December but I wish they would wait until closer to Christmas when we can really enjoy them. By then they always melt away. 🙁

    1. I want to BARF all over my computer!!!!
      Yes it’s early in the season, but I just don’t like
      these kind of systems and IF the rest of the Winter
      follows suit, we are doomed.

      1. Yeah that’s not really the kind of winter we’re going to have (see my winter forecast posted on Nov 22). This season is going to be about regimes & changes despite some things that don’t change that much.

        1. I saw your forecast for sure. I hope you are correct.
          I fear it will be a bad Winter for Snow lovers. 🙂

  11. Thanks TK, belated Happy Thanksgiving to all, hope everyone enjoyed!

    I’d be surprised if we go through the first half of December without at least one widespread winter weather event. Not really paying attention to any specific threats at this point, but pattern recognition alone suggests this should be an active period.

    1. May be active, but I fear any Winter weather will be confined
      to inland areas and perhaps very far inland. We shall see.

  12. Mark, judging from some of the runs it looks your Mom’s area (Amsterdam, NY) may see some decent cold shots along with snow. I’m not totally sold yet on my (coastal) neck of the woods.

  13. For better or worse, here are my 2020-2021 snowfall predictions (more like guesses than predictions)

    Winter 2020-2021 Snow Fall

    Boston, Logan: 31.7 inches
    Worcester: 42.3 inches
    Providence: 24.6 inches
    Hartford: 36.1 inches
    Concord NH: 53.8 inches

      2. The ensembles are not too excited about that powerful a SE ridge in the middle portion of December. In a little while take a look at your updated CPC 8-14 and it should show a cool trend for the SE. Ain’t no ridge gonna do that!

        1. Yep, no SE ridge in sight the next 2 weeks. Granted, it’s been dominant this month and I fully expect it to return. But time to take it out of the calculus at least for a little bit.

          1. Indeed.

            And I’m sure of the string of storm threats we get, some will be wet, not white, but our opportunity will be there for some early season snowfall. We’ll see how it shakes out!

                1. December & March are the months that should get us where we want to be, including the fact they already have 4.3 at Logan.

              2. The October snow killer theory is really a myth. It’s 50/50. I know there were correlations noted between 2011 and this fall? Eh. That was a stretch for one thing. And for another thing, it hardly means anything.

  14. Joshua, I agree…I think interior Upstate NY and NNE stand a decent chance to get some wintery precip out of the 12/5-6 storm threat. But the way the pattern is shaping up, the threats thereafter should shift right down to the coast.

  15. I am wondering if what we are seeing here in December may be a harbinger of what is to come down the road. The wildcard being that anomalously warm ocean water in northern Pacific (atypical of La Nina years) promoting ridging out West and troughing further east. Couple that with a cold Eastern Canada and building snowpack to our North, I think the SE ridge may have a formidable challenge on its hands in the Northeast this winter, even beyond December. I am not saying there wont be mild stretches, but I would not just write off January and February either.

    TK, I loved your bold winter forecast this year and I think you are on to something. We will have some favorable stretches this winter (whether it happens in the book end fashion or we get a few stretches mixed in over Jan and Feb) that get us to near/above normal snowfall IMO. It only take 3 or 4 significant events mixed in with a few smaller events to get there…..

      1. Doesn’t have to be the rule, but I’m hoping we have a few more exceptions in January and February. We’ll see…

  16. A reminder that the Boston ballet performance ox the nutcracker is on at 7:00 tomorrow night on nbc10. There are other performances but this is the first.

    And if anyone saw the 1976 Sutton high school ring lost on one New England beach in 1976 and just found and returned its owner in Sutton…it is a wonderful story of hope. Cheryl is also a first friend in Sutton

    1. I saw the story about the ring. I love when there is happy closure on things like that.

      I’m going to DVR the performance on NBC on my mom’s cable & watch it with her after we’re done with the decorating project. 🙂

      1. It was a good feeling story. Cheryl was nervous but sure did a great job. She is such a kind person so it gave me an extra happy feeling.

    1. I don’t think I’ve seen the week 3-4 outlook verify satisfactorily more than maybe once. I don’t pay attention to it that much though, to be honest. I believe they should just discontinue it. They have a 30-day outlook. The product is redundant. I also would love to see them change the 8-14 to the 10-14. Having 6-10 & 8-14 is also partially redundant. I get that 6-10 & 10-14 also leaves one day that is technically in there twice. They’d probably be better off going the way I do, 11-15… Actually now that I think about it… They could keep a 3-4 if they axed the 30. Maybe they could reformat to do the 7-day zone & points, an 8-15 extended, a 15-30 outlook to take the place of the 30-day, and then keep the long range forecasts as they are. 🙂

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