DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

Discussion…

With fairly abundant low level moisture in place now since Thanksgiving a couple days ago, we’ve been covered, literally, but a fairly stubborn blanket of stratocumulus clouds. They pulled a vanishing act for a few hours Friday morning to tease us a bit before taking the sky over. And today we still have them in place. We’ve also seen some ground fog patches develop overnight in areas where the temperature fell to meet the dew point, but these are dissipating quickly this morning. What will continue to be more stubborn are the stratocumulus, which again will dominate the sky much of the day. Although today that layer of air is going to be able to mix a bit more dry air in so we will see some breaks in the cloud cover, enough for intervals of sun in some locations. Despite the clouds, we’re still in a fairly mild air mass anyway, and without a lot of wind it won’t feel that bad outside at all. Outdoor decorating plans are quite doable – just may have some damp ground. If you really want to work outside in sunshine, then Sunday is your day, as it will be a similar-feeling day to today, just sunnier with drier ground, as we get a light but drier westerly air flow north of a high pressure area centered in the Mid Atlantic. And then, things change. A dual Pacific jet stream will be bringing a couple of disturbances through the middle of the country this weekend and they are set to rendezvous over the Midwest as we reach the final day of November on Monday. A low pressure wave forming over the lower Mississippi Valley will then track north northeastward on the eastern side of a developing closed upper low, moving up through the Tennessee and eastern Ohio Valleys and up along the Appalachian Mountains on its way to the St. Lawrence Valley during Monday and early Tuesday. For us, this means a strengthening southerly wind and a rain event. Significant rainfall amounts may result from this, which may result in local flooding but will also continue to east away at our drought. We’ll have to watch for some high-tide coastal flooding as well especially on south-facing shores as this will occur with the full moon Monday. The frontal boundary that trails this initial low pressure area will be the focus for a second wave of low pressure. While guidance has been in some disagreement about the exact strength and track of this low, what most likely happens is that it tracks to our west on Tuesday, probably through NY State, and this will keep our area on the mild side with some additional rain showers, but probably not quite as hard-hitting as the late Monday portion of the event. The closed low pressure system that is the catalyst of all this will start to lift into eastern Canada by Wednesday, at which time our surface wind will become more southwest to west, driving drier and more seasonably cool air into our region.

Details…

TODAY: Lots of clouds, breaks of sun. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Patches of ground fog. Lows 35-42. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Thickening overcast. Widespread rain showers arriving west to east late morning on. Highs 53-60. Wind SE to S increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast evening with widespread rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Breaking clouds overnight with a chance of addition rain showers. Lows 45-52. Wind S 15-25 MPH with gusts as high as 45-55 MPH evening, shifting to SW 10-20 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH overnight.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of rain showers evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 42-49. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 3-7)

A dry westerly air flow with seasonably chilly weather for December 3-4. Watching a storm potential for the December 5-6 weekend in which timing, low pressure track, and precipitation types are highly in question, depending on the evolution of the upper pattern. Whatever takes place at that time should be exiting with a return to seasonably chilly, dry weather at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 8-12)

Eyeing the potential for a colder and stormier period of weather in this time frame due to less high pressure in the US Southeast and a temporary disruption of the polar jet stream with indications for a fairly large scale trough of low pressure impacting the central and eastern US, including our region. Obviously far too soon to pin-point any specific storm systems and their results. These will look different on pretty much all models run-to-run. It’s more important to focus on the overall pattern at this range.