November 29 2020 Forecast (7:36AM)

31 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

Discussion…

Stratocumulus? What stratocumulus? We’ve finally gotten rid of the low level moisture that, with the help of a couple of disturbances, had caused us abundant cloudiness the last couple of days, and today we get to enjoy a bright late November day as an area of high pressure slides just to the south of New England. While it won’t be warm like that stretch we had earlier in November, it will have a seasonable feel to it but with the lack of wind the air will be quite tolerable, so no more excuses to put off the last of the outside cleanup or putting up holiday decorations. But be warned, if you are putting up decorations vulnerable to strong wind, make sure they are anchored, as they will be tested for their “staying power” later on Monday. Low pressure forming near the western Gulf Coast is going to be propelled rather rapidly northeastward on the eastern side of a developing upper level trough. While we will be on the warm side of this storm system, it’s going to deliver us quite a dose of wet weather and strong southerly wind alter Monday, especially Monday evening. Once we get to Tuesday, the main belt of rainfall and strongest wind will have departed, but it will still be somewhat unsettled with a frontal boundary nearby and the trough to our west. So while a good portion of Tuesday may end up rain-free, I can’t rule out some passing rain showers with a fair amount of clouds crossing the sky, although the air will be mild despite a gusty breeze, which will be from a “mild” direction. We’ll have to wait until midweek, when the upper low shifts into eastern Canada, for some seasonably chilly air to arrive here. But it will do so with dry and breezy weather.

Details…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Overcast. Widespread rain showers arriving west to east by late morning or midday. Highs 57-64 occurring late-day. Wind SE to S increasing to 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH coastal areas with higher gusts all areas.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast evening with widespread rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Breaking clouds overnight with a chance of addition rain showers. Lows 45-52. Wind S 15-35 MPH with gusts as high as 45-60 MPH evening (gusts above 60 MPH may occur in isolated coastal locations and higher elevations), shifting to SW 10-20 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH overnight.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 57-64 occurring in the morning, then falling through 50s by late-day. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of rain showers evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 42-49. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 39-46. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 4-8)

Cold front moves through the region with a risk of rain showers December 4. Weekend storm threat December 5-6, odds favoring rain coast but rain and/or snow possible interior depending on the storm track and temperature profile. The track of that storm is highly uncertain. Guidance currently shows a few hundred mile spread in possibilities. Colder with a risk of snow showers December 7-8 behind the departing storm system.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 9-13)

Eyeing the potential for a colder and stormier period of weather in this time frame due to less high pressure in the US Southeast and a temporary disruption of the polar jet stream with indications for a fairly large scale trough of low pressure impacting the central and eastern US, including our region. While it’s too soon to pin-point any specific storm systems and their results, there is also the possibility that this pattern is even slower to evolve and that much of this period can be storm-free.

31 thoughts on “November 29 2020 Forecast (7:36AM)”

    1. Just illustrates the point I make over and over about model runs. We’ll see more of this… 🙂

  2. Thanks TK.
    I am not surprised to see high wind watches for parts of SNE on Monday. I expect more wind alerts to be issued later today.

  5. Will see what happens with the rest of the 12z guidance but I would not be surprised South Shore Cape and Islands get upgraded to a High Wind Warning. I think Wind Advisories will cover a good chunk of SNE later today.

  10. Yesterday Logan officially recorded 0.00 precipitation but in my neighborhood (Dorchester) it poured late afternoon. I was caught in it on my way home from work. I wasn’t even expecting a sprinkle let alone a downpour.

    JPD, did you get anything?

        1. Haha. It is out with cinderblocks on it. I have a teak isle manger and three deer I am worried about. I may take them down

  12. Once again, operational run comparison GFS vs ECMWF for 12z supports the ongoing message that the models continue to be useless beyond a few days. Not that it surprises me. I expect this to continue to be the case well into if not all the way through the spring. So a reminder, take op runs very lightly. Check ensembles. Watch trends. Do not read too much into any single run, unless you enjoy fiction drafts from a writer who keeps changing their mind. 😉

    1. Looks like a wild night. A wide swath of near 60 mph gusts in the area.

      There appears to be an area of 70 mph (can’t really tell what color that is) from Block Island to eastern Martha’s Vineyard.

  14. Thank you, TK.

    Philip and JP Dave, I also got caught in a rain shower yesterday afternoon. Not a downpour, but certainly some rain. Enough to make me run home to not get too wet.

    Another entertaining Patriots game in this weird season. Cam Newton was dreadful. I feel a bit sorry for him. He’s clearly disappointed in his play, mechanics, reading defenses (eg, blitzes). But, the defense really stepped up. And Nick Folk has been phenomenal.

    1. As best I can tell, both the strongest wind just above the surface and the convective activity that can bring those winds to the surface will be occurring mostly to the east of your location. That would explain the cut off of their advisory.

      1. Thank you. Daughter teaches riding in millis in afternoon and early evening and wind can make horses spooky but also she needs to drive back to Uxbridge

        1. Definitely can be unnerving for both the animals as well as a drive. I think the worst of it will be to the east, but can’t rule out some decent gusts that far west as well.

  17. You know there’s a lack of cold air in general, when the GFS bombs a low to 954 mb in the gulf of Maine and its a struggle to get much snow in northern New England. 954 mb, lol !!!!

    1. Well that type of stuff tends to happen more during winter. Autumn is still a fairly warm time both in upper levels and near the ocean, compared to winter and the first half of spring. It being November or early December, I’m not really surprised at all. The stronger lows over the warmer water are even less likely to be tossing a ton of snow into eastern New England, even Maine, unless you have a very decent high to the north with entrenched cold air.

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