DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 1-5)
Discussion…
The final month of the year has arrived, and entered on a mild note on the heels of heavy showers and gusty wind last night. As upper level low pressure spins to our northwest today we’ll be mild and somewhat unsettled with additional showers possible, but cooler air will start to move in as the day goes on, not really noticed until tonight, and more so the following two days as the wind shifts more to the west. This cooler and dry air will arrive as the upper low exits via eastern Canada, but this means generally dry weather despite breezy conditions Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday, a cold front will cross the region with clouds and a chance of rain showers. When we get to the weekend, there are still some significant differences between models, but for now I will continue with the idea that high pressure will move in to give dry weather to us for Saturday.
Details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Highs 57-64 occurring in the morning, then falling through 50s by late-day. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of rain showers evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 42-49. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 39-46. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 31-38 occurring in the evening. Temperatures may rise overnight. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers early, then clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 6-10)
Storm threat exists for the December 6-7 time frame but details yet-to-be determined. Many possibilities on the table ranging from a storm track to our west with rain, a storm track over the area with mostly rain, maybe mix at end, a storm track a little further southeast with rain/mix/snow, and even a grazing or a miss. There’s even a chance that the system never quite forms. I’ll be working those details out over the next several days. Windy/colder weather around the middle of the period with a risk of snow showers then moderating temperatures later in the period based on current timing of larger scale features.
DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 11-15)
The overall idea for the middle of December is for potential active weather, including bouts of colder air, increasing the chance of some wintry precipitation events.
Thanks TK. Rain total of 2.46 here. Over an inch of that came between 9pm and 1am last night,
Good morning and thank you TK.
2.27 inches here in JP
Next system??????
Now the first of December was covered with snow
and so was the turnpike from Stockbridge to Boston
Though the Berkshires seemed dreamlike on account of that frosting with ten miles behind me and ten thousand more to go
Thank, TK
Thanks TK !
TK, thank you.
Walked the shore this AM. It was warm and muggy out there.
Blue Hill reportedly had a gust 81 MPH.
I sent an email to NOAA asking if the recent SNE weather conference will be posted on their YouTube channel. I received this response from Bryce Williams:
“Unfortunately the conference was not recorded and thus cannot be posted. Sorry for the inconvenience. “
One year ago today I was on a bus to Schenectady to play a Holiday Pops concert. We encountered weather delays already on the way out, and by the time the concert ended at 5:30, there were several inches of snow on the ground. The ramp to the highway wasn’t plowed, one of our buses got stuck fast, one of the others went back to get the people on it while the rest of us waited…..I got home shortly before 2am after hair-raising travel on the Pike and shoveling two snow walls created by plows (which meant that the local roads were passable. ) Very memorable weather on December 1st!
Sounds like the lyrics to the JT song above, although not as serene! 🙂
It’s amazing how many here has such good memories. I know we had snow last early December but I had no idea it was specifically on December 1st.
We had no school on December 3 last year. The only “weather-related” day off.
Vicki, I didn’t see your post and question last night until very late.
Yes, I did watch Nutcracker and did enjoy it. I hadn’t seen this particular version before.
GFS and EURO seem to have very different projections for about 4 days from now (96 hrs to around 124 hrs)
Par for the current course. 😉
lol ……
the 12z EURO looks a lot more like the GFS. Stormy in 96 hrs …….
This will do the job all right. NOT!!!!
https://m3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020120112/102/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png
Sorry JpDave ….
I´m having a hard time getting excited about the prospects of snow under the current atmospheric setup.
This is mainly because the true polar and arctic air is cut off so far to the north.
Phasing jet streams, yes, intense storms, yes, but, with only marginal air and very windy storms, I can´t see much hope for snow in New England, outside of maybe the mountains.
Maybe later in the month, if some of that polar/arctic air can be sent further south.
Oh, I agree. It’s just that yesterday’s run looked so
promising. I am not feeling it either. There is time for things to change, so we shall see. But96 hours is getting into prime time. There will be changes, but enough? Likely not.
We don’t even know if that storm will be there yet. Run to run variations are still giant.
What’s this crap?
https://m3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2020120118/066/prateptype_cat.conus.png
That is the cold front approaching that I have in my forecast for Friday.
Don’t forget about the models being completely different run to run. Basically .. useless beyond day 3. Where have we heard that before? 😉
1.26” for Logan
New weather post…
Remember to look at model runs without taking anything too seriously beyond day 3. These things will continue to suffer for some time to come.