Sunday Morning Update

82 Comments

8:06AM

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Dense fog melting away to sunshine during the morning. Sun/clouds afternoon. High 55-60. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Low 45-50. Wind S under 10  MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. High 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain at night. Low 47. High 58.

WEDNESDAY: Rain early. Breaking clouds. Low 41. High 49.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 34. High 49.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 46.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 23. High 41.

82 thoughts on “Sunday Morning Update”

  1. Everybody enjoy another warm day out there today. Heading to Rhode Island and hoping to be home for second half of pats game. Go pats.

  3. I am not seeing any real snow threats as we start December. There maybe some cold shots but to me unless we get snow its a waste of cold air.

  4. I guess Logan has only hit 51F or 52F this afternoon, but I wonder if the wind turns south before midnight and the temp climbs towards 54F or 55F before leveling off overnight……..

    I’ve been wondering….the regime change that we’ve all predicted a date for, have we defined what that is ? As an example, if New England gets a week of cold, even severe cold….but then that is followed up with say 14 out of the next 21 days being above normal again, I’d think thats not a regime change……For temps anyway, what will define regime change ?

    1. If the temps say go up and down than maybe snow would define it. I just don’t know how long it can stay mild for this time of year. I am just thinking the bone chilling cold has to come soon, just does. The change should be here soon.

  6. It stayed kind of cool/raw (still mild for the season though) today. You could really feel the moisture out there, even after the fog burned off.’

    Doing some hardcore decorating this evening – update coming a bit later.

    1. It was a different feel out there today mowing the lawn(for the last time) compared to yesterday where it felt much warmer while raking the leaves yesterday.

        1. I did, and we’ll see if it actually happens. The atmosphere is trying to show a different picture than the one we painted, so far…

          Barry also issued his. He, Joe D’Aleo, Joe Bastardi, and I all had fairly similar outlooks.

      1. Thanks Coastal. Him and the Almanac pretty close in timing because around that time Almanac predicts Heavy Snow northern NE
        showery rains perhaps some thunderstorms further south. The one to mark on the calendar is the 20th-23rd of
        February calling for wet snow with accumulations of 12 plus inches and early next winter starts with a bang
        Will see.

    1. Winter is coming everybody, winter does not even start till dec 22. Last season snow did not come till right before xmas. Yes it has been warm but it hasto change. Winter has not even started and people are thinking where is it.I still call for snow before xmas.

    1. Jimmy, the direction this winter could be heading into, I’ll take ONE of those scenes and be totally grateful. This warm November is becoming somewhat unsettling to me. I wasn’t expecting anywhere near last winter’s snow totals, but I was at least hoping for a bit above normal. We will see I guess.

  11. Joshua has a really excellent post over on WBZ (Joe’s) blog today. It is very informative to say the least. He seems to have a great handle about what is going on so far regarding the current pattern.

    TK & Coastal…Joshua should be over here as well as a few others too!

        1. Philip-

          Amazingly, they did. And I was surprised because they’re about 8′ tall and I thought for sure they wouldn’t handle the stress.

          1. I have three Rose of Sharon cuttings that a dear friend who has worked with my husband for 35 years gave us last year. They are under the eves and with all of the snow and ice shoveled from the roof last year I was sure they would not survive. They did and they bloomed for the first time this past summer. I was amazed.

  13. Hey Philip…. The stats for a warm November are not encouraging if you are a snowlover. This pattern can’t last forever and I remember last year with the flip of a switch we had an incredible six weeks. I would be shocked if that happened this year given the setup we have now with a much weaker La Nina and no real blocking taking place up in Greenland.

  14. Lets see if the late November sun can shine through the clouds today and get some town to 70F. (Its already 55F plus).

    Back to work, so only can quickly peek at GFS. If its correct, its a 2 day cold shot in about 10 days, then its back to mild to warm weather.

  15. We are enjoying springlike weather here will parts of Mississppi, Tennessee, Alabama, and Arkansas are under winter weather advisories and in some cases winter storm watches.

  17. 06Z GFS hints at some rain/ice to snow or snow around 12/6-12/7, as was posted above earlier. On these charts, it doesn’t look like a big deal, but still something to watch at least:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F28%2F2011+06UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=192&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  18. Old Salty I have been enjoying this mild weather but its boring to me. I am done with the yardwork and am ready for more snow to fall. At least for the moment and this might not show up on the next model run we have some to track.

    1. You’re probably correct, it won’t show on next model run, but we’ll look at the next run anyway.

      What do you think of Joshua’s comments on BZ? I really don’t see a regime change coming soon. We’ll see.

      1. The comments were good I thought. This pattern will not last forever but I think one thing is clear there will be no
        repeat of last winter. The La Nina is weaker and too much southeast ridge and no blocking up north.

    1. Only ONE ensemble member has it going negative. All of the rest of the ensemble members have it staying positive.

      1. We are headed into an unstable pattern, which will cause the models to lack consistency, in return the teleconnection’s forecasts won’t be consistent either.
        It is seeming that the first half of December will be more of the same of what we are having now with perhaps a few more cold shots, after that we’ll see what materializes.

        1. OK, but still disturbing that the previous NAO forecast
          has changed. The regime change keeps getting pushed out. We were looking at the beginning of December. Now we are looking at mid-December, at best.

  23. 10 AM observation from Boston (Logan)

    Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
    (KBOS) 42.38N 71.03W
    62.0 °F
    Last Updated: Nov 28 2011, 9:54 am EST
    Mon, 28 Nov 2011 09:54:00 -0500
    Weather: Mostly Cloudy
    Temperature: 62.0 °F (16.7 °C)
    Dewpoint: 51.1 °F (10.6 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 67 %
    Wind: from the Southwest at 17.3 gusting to 25.3 MPH (15 gusting to 22 KT)
    Wind Chill: 60 F (16 C)
    Visibility: 10.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1019.8 mb
    Altimeter: 30.12 in Hg

    Are we destined for 70? The record is 74. Probably will fall short of that.

    1. This current weather pattern is pretty consistent, even if it is supposed to
      be changing. I don’t see any big changes anytime soon.

  29. But could that be the storm that is the pattern changer. Sometimes when you get a big storm that could change the pattern as was the case in the winter of 09-10 when snowicane happened where SNE got the rain and Hudson River Valley south got dumped upon. It turned out that was the last big snow for the Mid Atlantic that broke snowfall records in Philadelphia and Baltimore.

  30. I agree with Jimmy in the sense that this pattern can’t last “forever” BUT I am getting the feeling that the current pattern will last for the remainder of 2011. Yes there will likely be some good cold shots enough to bundle up in winter coat and gloves a couple days here and there but certainly no boots or snowshoes needed anytime soon. Perhaps OS and Tom’s “January” dates of the regime change were not so farfetched after all?

    Interesting thought: Perhaps we continue same pattern through January and finally get blitzed by snow & cold February-March?? Just something I just came up with out of the blue, literally.

  31. Noon Boston Obs Temp: 64

    Looks to me like a top off of aroun 66 or so, Perhaps a bit higher with more sunshine, not too shabby for 11/28.

    1. Facinating read. Many thanks for sharing.

      By the way, the key is:
      As a result, ON precipitation and snowfall provide little predictive capability of the
      subsequent winter precipitation and snowfall. Although ON temperature appears to provide some
      prognostic information about the following winter temperature, the extent to which the
      correlation is effective very likely depends on the specific atmospheric dynamical processes than
      dominate the weather conditions during particular fall and winter seasons

      Thanks again

  34. There is winter in the U.S. but in a spot that you would not think of in parts of the south. Tueoplo, MS 2-4 inches. If Nashville gets an inch of snow it would the first time they had measurable snow in November since 1960.

    1. Too much cloud cover…although sun has been able to come through at times.

      Why can’t we have these temps during April, May and early June? lol.

    1. Long ago, I worked with former channel 7 meteorologist Roland boucher (rip)
      and he once told me that there was a summer so cold that Mt. Washington
      in NH actually glaciated. That must have been the year, but I’m not sure.
      Anyone know?

      1. Hey OS…who was Roland Boucher? The name doesn’t even remotely sound familiar. What time period was he around?

        As far as Channel 7 goes, I remember back to Fred Ward.

        1. Roland Boucher worked at channel 7 during the mid to late 60s. He also worked at a Framingham radio station
          doing the daily morning forecasts.

          I worked with him at the Air Force Cambridge Research Labs weather radar site out on the Army Labs property where sudbury, Maynard and Stowe converge.

      2. Perhaps it never really happened. Note this about Tuckerman ravine on Mt. Washington:

        The high snowfall winters of 1968-69 (the total snow accumulation of the 1968-1969 winter is still the record), and 1995-96, and 1999-2000 with near record snow accumulation, each filled Tucks almost to the point where snow lingered around the seasons. Unfortunately (for those of us who would like to have a glacier on Mt. Washington), it would take many record breaking winters back to back to produce glacial ice.

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