Saturday December 5 2020 Forecast (9:37AM)

310 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 5-9)

The event is underway. Rapidly deepening and progressive low pressure will track northeastward, its center passing just southeast of or over Nantucket later today and into the Gulf of Maine tonight. While a mild air mass in place has resulted in this system starting as rain for all of the WHW forecast area, the process of rapid deepening and resultant banding of heavier precipitation, and generation of cold air aloft, will create a widespread dynamic cooling process, which is already underway and as of the time of this writing, the transition to snow has already taken place in southwestern NH and parts of central MA, and this will expand east and southeast with time, reaching Cape Cod and the Islands lastly where it may never completely change over to snow, before the precipitation shield, pivots and exits from southwest to northeast. The resultant bands of heavy snow, as much as 1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall rates, will lead to significant accumulations, especially where it snows longest. Look for the amount break-down below. We can’t discount the possibility of thunder occurring in the stronger bands of precipitation – something that is not unusual for such a feature. The low pressure center will cross the Bay of Fundy early Sunday then exit via the Maritime Provinces of Canada, leaving us blustery and chilly but dry weather in its wake. A quick look into early next week indicates we still need to watch low pressure offshore later Monday into Tuesday, but it still looks like it will be far enough offshore to avoid any significant impact. Will re-evaluate this for the next update.

TODAY: Overcast with rain changing to snow from west to east across the region, heavy at times, especially under banding zones where thunder is also possible. Temperatures falling to 28-35, coldest in interior southern NH and central MA, by late-day. Wind NE to N increasing to 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH coastal areas with gusts above 25 MPH possible interior areas and above 40 MPH coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Snow including heavy bands, except still some mix Cape Cod, slowly ending from southwest to northeast followed by breaking clouds. Total snowfall for the storm expected to be a slushy coating to 1 inch Cape Cod and Islands and immediate South Coast of MA & RI, 1-3 inches South Shore of MA (Plymouth) to southern RI just away from the shoreline, 3-6 inches Cape Ann MA and immediate MA coast through Boston to Providence RI mainly just east of I-95 down into southwestern RI, 6-10 inches NH Seacoast down I-95’s northern stretch to Boston’s Metro West to northwestern RI and eastern CT, as well as far southwestern NH, with 10-15 inches Worcester Hills through interior southern NH through the interior Merrimack Valley of MA. Lows 25-32. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloud/sun mix. Passing light snow showers possible. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 31-38. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain favoring the South Coast. Temperatures steady in the 30s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy start with a chance of snow/mix/rain favoring Cape Cod, then clearing. Highs 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 10-14)

Disturbance from the northwest brings a rain/snow shower risk December 10 with a brief shot of milder air then a shot of colder air with dry weather December 11. A frontal boundary and possible low pressure system brings the threat of unsettled weather back for December 12-13, with drier weather returning at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 15-19)

Watching December 16-18 as a window for potential storm threat (rain/mix/snow – too early to know).

310 thoughts on “Saturday December 5 2020 Forecast (9:37AM)”

        1. Thank you from me also. My son has a shift in Boston and will drive from there to lincoln RI mid afternoon. He was was very appreciative of your info also

    2. Those are mostly reasonable, IMO, but I am a bit perplexed as to why NBC’s “jackpot” is so much further west than everybody else’s. The Monadnock region may actually come out of the heavier banding sooner so that their amounts are less than what falls east and southeast of there.

    1. Try sitting in you car and watching the windshield. That is the best way in the world to spot the first flakes mixing in.
      I’ll bet there are some flakes mixed in, but you can’t see
      them.

  10. Thanks, TK…
    Just back with the morning coffee, Lots of road ponding already. That didn’t take long.
    Getting breezy, too.

    Stay seated , keep your belts on and hands inside the car. It looks like a fun ride today!

  12. Thanks Tk not expecting much here in pembroke but should be fun to watch especially since I’m not working it .

  13. A discussion from a colleague that explains things in some detail…

    “We have a challenging forecast today for a very complex storm system headed toward the region. Low pressure moving off the Delmarva Peninsula today will combine with upper-level energy diving out of the Great Lakes to create a rapidly strengthening storm system south of New England. The storm will likely track very close to or across Cape Cod later today. With mild air in place initially, rain will develop this morning, and it may be heavy for a while. As the storm rapidly strengthens south of New England, it will shift winds into the north, allowing colder air to move southward, but as heavy precipitation moves in, it will draw colder air down from aloft. This will allow the rain to change to snow by early afternoon, with temperatures in the lower to middle 30s. Because temperatures will be near or above freezing, a difference of just 1 or 2 degrees could be the difference between 1 inch of rain and a foot of snow in the span of just a few miles. There will also be bands of very heavy snow developing, which could produce 1-3 inches an hour, but where these bands setup is still unknown at this point. Combine all this and the uncertainty is much larger than normal for a storm that is less than 12 hours away. Snow should wind down this evening as the system moves into the Gulf of Maine. Accumulations could be as little as 3 inches if the changeover takes longer than expected or temperatures remain marginal, but we could see as much as 8 inches (possibly more), if one of the heavy bands forms overhead. High pressure builds in for Sunday through Wednesday with generally dry and cool conditions, though we need to keep an eye on an offshore storm system on Tuesday. Right now, it looks like it should stay far enough offshore to have little to no impact on the region. “

  14. I remember about 5 weeks ago on the morning of the October 30 snowfall looking at Portland ME and Portsmouth, NH’s Obs and seeing dewpoints of 21F and seeing Logan about 3F to 4F colder than projected and thinking …. this might be good.

    This morning, Portland, ME and Portsmouth, NH dewpoints are 38F and 39F, so even though there are some signs of an earlier changeover, it still may take a while for lower elevations until the storm has strengthened enough and positioned itself to a place where enough cold air is above to overcome an extremely marginal boundary layer.

  16. Vicki heavy wet snow here large wet flakes everything covered in a wet accumulation of about 1/2 inch. 32.7 degrees.

  17. Thanks TK. What a classic!

    The latest NWS Boston map lines up very well with my #’s from yesterday and I wouldn’t change much at this point, though would lean high end of all ranges. There’s certainly a chance those 10-15″ numbers get right into Boston. It’s hard to forecast aggressively enough with a storm like this.

  20. 3” on my snow board maybe 2.5 on the ground. Roads are as bad as I can remember maybe going back to that storm in December back in 2007? I forget.

    My 4WD Tacoma struggled. Had to go get my wife who was stuck on the side
    Of the road. 4WD’s barely faring better.

  21. Thanks TK.

    33F in Coventry CT. We have been mixing on and off here and occasionally flipping to snow since 915 or so but can’t make the complete changeover.

    I have tempered my enthusiasm for the larger totals here in my area. HRRR has backed way off and has the larger totals further northeast.

  22. We switched to snow in Lunenburg at 9:45. In just an hour, the snow accumulation and temperature drop are very impressive.

  23. To TK:

    Your wind forecast, which I am not doubting at all, seems to be lower than what I thought I saw on Channel 7 today (Not that they have the answer). I was wondering if we would be looking at a blizzard possibility along the north shore. We have the duration, the snow, and winds…maybe…?? What say ye?

    1. Yep, and it is raining very hard here! I thought the heavier precip would get the job done but not happening.

    1. I don’t know what Tim Kelley is thinking for Boston. Even 3-6” is going to be a tall order, let alone 6”+…we will see I suppose.

        1. I agree, especially with most here on the blog still haven’t changed over in spite of the temperature drops.

  26. I’m seeing same as Mark here. But to continue the tale of two Sutton’s, daughter is out and as soon as she hot Blackstone golf course, it was snow. And white is showing on the grass. Crazy how a matter of a couple of miles can make a difference but it never fails.

  27. Well, winds are stiff from the due North everywhere, so a coastal front certainly won’t be an issue today.

  28. The rain is changing to snow here in Billerica. Town center has snow, just waiting for the snow to come down the hill to my area.

  30. Still mixed rain and snow and 33F in Coventry CT at 700’ elevation.

    Total rainfall so far = 1.65”
    Total snow = 0”

  31. I think the storm needs to mature more and position itself better for the coldest 850 mb temps to be in prime position for cooling the column.

    I think watching Worcester and Keene, NH´s temps to see if they can inch down to 32F or 31F will be telling of that continued cooling from aloft.

    We usually watch Portland, ME or Portsmouth NH or locations to the north for changeovers. Not today. That north wind won´t help the boundary layer any further from here on in.

    The other ob, even though its only at elevation 150 ft is Blue Hill. That has to get down to 34F or 35F I believe for easternmost areas.

    1. Temp here dropped to 32 about an hour ago. Snow is not silver dollar size anymore. Ratios probably getting a little higher. Good because I can hear some of the pines starting to crack.

    2. Blue Hill is 640 feet.

      Great Blue Hill
      From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
      Jump to navigationJump to search
      Great Blue Hill
      Great Blue Hill in Milton.jpg
      Great Blue Hill
      Highest point
      Elevation 640+ ft (195+ m) [1]
      Prominence 483 ft (147 m) [1]
      Coordinates 42°12′43″N 71°06′56″WCoordinates: 42°12′43″N 71°06′56″W [2]
      Geography
      Location Norfolk County, Massachusetts
      Parent range Blue Hills
      Topo map USGS Norwood
      Great Blue Hill (called Massachusett by Native Americans) is a hill of 635 feet (194 m) located within the Blue Hills Reservation in Milton and Canton, Massachusetts 10 miles (15 km) southwest of downtown Boston.

      1. Current temp atop Blue Hill is 39. Still a ways to go, but
        Snow can mix in at that temperature.

        Blue Hill is 8 miles from my house and I am stuck at 42 here
        with 1.12 inches of rain so far. What a waste!

  32. I just called 4” into NWS. First question they asked was what elevation I was. They’ve never asked me that in the ten years or so I’ve been a spotter. I love storm where subtleties of elevation make so much difference. I almost drove up to Princeton center just to see the incremental change there too but I was having trouble on the roads.

  36. Temps have remained steady here in Taunton throughout the morning. Currently 42.8. Winds starting to ramp up.

  37. Residing near the coast, I am glad we don´t have a decent high to the north.

    Its windy as it is. Had we had a high to the north and this intense a system slowly passing to our south, the coastline would be getting crushed with NE winds today.

  40. The slow and painful transition appears to be complete now. All snow now for the past 10 min and coming down at a decent clip. Smaller flakes too indicating the column has cooled. A bit of slush on the deck now. Still steady at 33

    2. I suspect your flakes will get larger. We switched around same time …maybe a bit earlier. Roofs and cars and garden beds have a light coating. A bit on the grass

  41. Its probably impossible to do, but in the snow contour predictions, I think larger differences would work for this system and inserting some elevation numbers in there,

    For example, in that northern Worcester/central Mass contour, it might well end up being 4-16 inches, with the ¨lower lying¨ areas being the 4 and someone like Retrac´s elevation getting the 16.

    4-7 under 500 ft
    8-12 above 500-1,000 ft
    12-16 above 1,000 ft

    I wonder how that would look on a map ?????

  42. I am wondering now if this is going to be like more of a early springtime setup in which we will have to wait until near darkness for dynamic cooling?

  44. Everything still seems mostly on track from what I can tell. I do think some of what JMA said yesterday is ringing true and preventing the “upside surprise” scenario. Might lean more towards the lower end of my ranges at this point, but it will vary from place to place and again on the whole still seems on track. Man, a few degrees colder though and with this amount of liquid we’d be measuring in feet everywhere.

    1. It’s funny, I was talking to a fellow met earlier and saying yesterday I was leaning toward the upper end of my ranges, and this morning upped the ranges a tiny bit and leaning toward the lower end, basically leaving my forecast almost unchanged. HAHA!

  47. 12:15PM measured 4.5″ in center of Holden. Winds are picking up and starting to get reports of trees coming down.

  48. My concern is how much precip will be left once Boston changes over and if it’s not intense enough it won’t stay all snow

    1. Boston’s snow will occur largely on a pivot of snow bands early this evening. I expect a 2 to 3 hour period of 1-2 inch per hour snow there that should get them right into the forecast range.

    1. I am just west of that intense band and unfortunately don’t think I am going to get into it. Still, it is snowing the hardest that it has up to this point and really starting to accumulate. Flakes are bigger now too as Vicki noted

      2. Hey hey hey. Nice to see you Arod and darn I am not in framingham any more….welll, only darn because you are. I’m sure glad we left when we did

  54. When the rain flipped to snow earlier those were some of the biggest flakes I have seen in a while. Now I have rain mixing in with the snow.

  55. Oddly, given the radar echoes in Framingham, precipitation intensity isn’t as heavy as I would expect. Still predominantly snow but flips back to rain when it loses its dynamic cooling mechanism.

    3. As I mentioned earlier, I think this is going to be more of a spring snow situation with regard to “nighttime” dynamic cooling.

      1. That’s actually not the case. It’s not because it’s dark that Boston will get their snow after dark. It’s because that’s when the heaviest snow bands will occur at Boston.

        We’ve already seen the areas that have turned to snow have had NO trouble accumulating. The dynamic cooling is being caused by the intensifying storm and its precipitation, not the time of day.

          1. It may take a little while to get out of Boston north. Sometimes we see the precip shield expand as the storm moves away giving the appearance of a stationary storm (even though it is still moving). We may see that for a while. but I’d say the final flakes in Boston should have ended by 2 or 3 a.m., with the accumulating snow having finished a couple hours before that.

  57. The transformation / comma-head of this is going to be pretty fascinating to watch on radar & satellite over the next 8 hours. Enjoy the show…

    1. I had been saying 4 or so. I think that’s reasonable. Anywhere 3 to 5 seems reasonable based on current trends.

  59. Very heavy snow in Coventry now and accumulating rapidly.
    Roads have deteriorated and hearing reports of many spin outs in the Manchester area and along I-84.

      1. Yes! There is still a stretch of 84 through the Buckland hills area that is all concrete. I’m sure that area usually starts icing up first.

        1. We experienced that firsthand ones with freezing rain back in the 1980s when my dad was driving. We saw spin outs everywhere. He decided to drive with the right side tires in the breakdown lane which was paved with asphalt, and not icy. A strategy that got us safely through the icy area.

          1. That’s a good idea….those shoulders are still paved now. Concrete lasts a long time but isnt used much anymore as it is much more expensive than asphalt.

            https://www.google.com/maps/@41.8039582,-72.5430382,3a,75y,259h,74.56t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1swhuc4zkzVfROT5RY2pqDlg!2e0!6s%2F%2Fgeo2.ggpht.com%2Fcbk%3Fpanoid%3Dwhuc4zkzVfROT5RY2pqDlg%26output%3Dthumbnail%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26thumb%3D2%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D152.7189%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i16384!8i8192?hl=en

          2. I have used that strategy before. It has always worked well for me. Happy to see others have employed it.

      1. Thank you both. I made dinner after first half….just in case we lose power and to keep me from looking out at the manger now that the wind has picked up :). Now for second half

    4. Hahahahahaaha. Love it! Cheers because I did the same thing starting about an hour ago. Old forester bourbon here.

      Lmao – “I never drink this early”

  63. Its ferocious here. The NE winds are stronger than I expected and the rain looks like the kind of rain you see in tropical season coverage, pure sheets of wind driven rain and reduced visibility.

  67. 2 pm obs.

    Buzzards Bay pressure 989.2F
    Boston Buoy 45 knot gust
    Martha’s Vineyard 29.11F
    Provincetown 47 mph gust
    Providence 46 mph gust

  70. Snow has lightened up here a bit and hovering around 31/32F. A little over 2″ on the ground.

    Man, this storm is really compact. You would think with the center so close to the coast that the heavier bands would have pushed farther west but the back edge is already approaching here. No way we will get into the NWS 5-10″ range here in Tolland County. Perhaps the low end of that range in some areas.

    Still beautiful out there though and everything is plastered.

    1. It’s going to have to come down fast and furious to realize those totals. I’m not impressed with snow intensity in Framingham thus far since the changeover.

    1. I am only a few miles from Needham. Which side of town are you? Near Wellesley? Dedham? or Newton?
      I should see some snow very very soon. 🙂 thanks

    2. I was born in Needham. Lived on Manning Street not far from
      the high school. 🙂 Moved out when I was 5.

    1. I doubt that happens. Even so, once the storm reaches its pivot point, all of that heavy precip collapses toward the coast as the storm departs.

  79. 7” now. 1” per hour average right on the dot.

    Maybe get to a foot. Depends what happens with banding

  82. its snowing rather good the past hour and a half but only have a coating. The snow coated things very quick but its not accumulating

  83. temp 36, dp now 34 with 1.96 inches of wasted rain.

    How much can be left???????????

    I am not liking the looks of the radar either.

  86. Snow piling up and is as heavy as I have ever seen it since I’ve lived here. Just had a tree come down and it narrowly missed my shed.

  89. JPD….you’ll know this area. My SILs office building is in Ashland. He left around 1:00 to pick up their snow blower and generator. He said it was all snow through Upton and the start of Hopkinton and a good amount of it until he got to Weston nursery then nothing

  90. He is referring to Burlington CT…

    John Bagioni
    @FaxAlertWeather
    1h

    Crazy snow total variation across Burlington; slushy inch or less at 300′ elevation jumps to 7 inches at 1100 foot level.

  94. The next 4 hours will be the peak for Metro Boston.

    I changed to all snow here about 1 hour ago and we’re closing in on 1 inch rapidly in Woburn, lots of wind. North-facing windows are plastered with snow. Roads are “ok” but slushy – that will change in short order.

    1. Just not happening here yet. What do you make of the radar?
      I am getting close to that band cutting off almost to nothing.

      1. I’d still with the ranges as they are, leaning lower end for most. This is not atypical of a very compact explosively developing storm. The main banded areas make out well, but just outside of them, you’d hardly know anything was going on.

        Example: The photo from Cape Cod.

        This is just the atmosphere at work, and it’s fascinating. 🙂

  96. It is that time of day where it is very difficult to see what
    is happening outside. Street lights just came on, but still
    a bit too light out. I stuck my head out the front door
    and it still looks like all rain, but it is cold and feels like snow,
    but I could not discern any flakes.

    I thought there was some building on care back windows, but they were just fogging up due to moisture and temperatures dropping. 🙂

  97. Temperature here actually went up 2 degrees from 34 to 36. Precipitation became lighter in intensity and has been oscillating between rain and snow after being all snow from 11-2. We picked up about an inch on cold surfaces.

    Boston and immediate facing east coastal areas. The long precip fetch from the departing system will allow you to get some at least additional minor accumulation after dark and into the night.

      1. I don’t think its way overdone. I was pretty specific with 1-3 along the immediate coast trending to 3 – 6 as you move inland 3 or so miles. It can be hard convey that level of specificity on a map without overwhelming the graphic with colors.

        It was I meant by today was the need for hyper local snowfall accumulation forecasts.

  100. Burlington, VT is 37F and Caribou, ME is 35F.

    A beautiful cold season storm sitting within a Pacific airmass.

    I´m impressed with the dynamics producing the snow it has.

    We had a brief lull in rain/wind, but the wind is back and gusting quite strong.

    1. Brutal here in pembroke Tom I think it’s just a matter of time before the power goes out . Brant Rock is flooded

      2. Agree, we´ve been flickering for a while. Expecting a couple hrs now of NW winds that might even be stronger than the NE winds we have seen.

  101. Sitting under one of the bands 1/2 dollar sized flakes and coming down at a good clip. Lights have been flickering for the past 1/2 hour. Measuring 4 1/2” on the back deck. 32.3 degrees

  102. 34 with dp 32 and moderate to heavy snow.
    All surfaces are white except the street and it is even beginning
    to get white there. Instant Winter!

  103. Boston still gets into the 3-6 band with this. About 5 hours of accumulation left before it degenerates to lingering bands of lighter snow.

    2. Tk the wind down here is stronger then Monday’s storm for sure I’m nervous with the tree tonight for sure

    1. Very nice I am getting a deck tree this year also. I looked for a stand yesterday and so many are out of them

      2. I have heard x-mas tree farms are also running out of trees which isn’t good as we get 2 indoor trees, one for the dining area and one for the living room. The dining room goes up first as we can chill the dining area/porch when we are not using it to keep the tree fresh for longer than the living room but we might not have a choice and buy both at the same time.

      1. I just do not see my area getting 6 to 8 inches of snow this evening. Maybe some areas to the east of me but I have a hard time believing we get all that much.

  108. Watching the yellow and orange radar echos melt away to dark green. Is it because the precip is lightening up? I don’t think so.
    I think it is the transition to snow where snow does not reflect
    the radar beams as strongly as the rain does.

  113. Who was it that said this is heavy snow? Retrac? It is so water logged, it is hard to believe it is snow. Even the flakes falling feel as much like big raindrops as they do snow. We had some landscaping done in October and may have lost one of the small hollies 🙁 I used a broom to softly take snow off but will go out more times

    1. 8” here so far and extremely heavy. Basically been a pretty consistent 1” per hour. Wires and limbs down here and there but so far just a heavy water logged snow.

  114. According to the snow map above, we are to get 9 inches? We barely have two. That will be some intense snow if it happens

    1. I agree, I only have about an inch of very wet snow on the ground despite the snow falling rather decent. Its just one of those storms.

  116. A little over 3″ here and tapered off to light snow. Probably wont get a whole lot more. Fun storm and beautiful outside with the Christmas lights but definitely set the expectations too high with this one.

    Antecedent air mass just was not good for this one and the storm was too compact to get the good dynamics far enough west.

  117. Thank you, TK.

    I must say this feels like a spring storm, with really no cold air mass to our north to speak of and the system generating “dynamic cooling.”

    I can say one thing, the flooding in Boston’s Back Bay on the roadways, but also in our courtyard, indicates the water table has risen sharply in recent weeks. Don’t know if we’re out of drought stage, but I think we might be after this heavy rain and some snow.

  118. One negative factor I probably failed to account for on this storm: the air to the northwest is/was not cold. The best dynamic cooling events tend to involve a 1-2 punch of cooling factors. First is what we’ve been seeing today, the height falls aloft and heavy precipitation causing surface temperatures to fall. But there can also be a component of cold advection as colder air gets dragged in along the western side of the storm. But even with the winds turning more NW as the day has gone on, the air we’ve been dragging in isn’t even sub-freezing, so it’s not helping. So most areas will end up below my ranges, especially the areas towards central MA that I thought could overperform.

    Finding cold air in North America has been a struggle for a few years now. It’s surprising to me that a setup like this couldn’t deliver more snow. Maybe the low track was a little too far northwest, but I think there are deeper climate (change?) issues at work here. To be fair, it’s also only 12/5, so we’re not at the coldest time of year, but I don’t recall any setup like this in Dec-Feb producing this much rain.

    1. Many times lows tucked into the coast that far have produced quite a bit of rain. I’m actually surprised I’m getting as much snow as I am given the lack of cold. 😉

      1. Yeah, not surprising that coastal areas are struggling. Would be a lot to ask for heavy snows to the coast with this kind of track, though expectations were lower at the coast of course and they may still get into their forecast ranges in the next couple hours.

        But I would not have anticipated that we’d struggling to manage any double digit totals in interior SNE. Kind of an ironic follow-up to the October storm, always a “game of inches” when it comes to temperatures.

        1. I was thinking that same thing, in regards to the comparison to the October system. Weather is fascinating…

  119. The intense banding on radar does not appear as impressive as just a couple of hours ago. The more intense bands seem oriented east of 495 and especially along the I95 belt.

  120. It is the lack of intense banding (1-2 inch snowfall rates) that is the issue. I think Eric’s tweet said alot in terms of needle-threading and what not. Meanwhile there were posts all over the net just buying model #’s straight-up (non-meteorologist posts, showing why doing that is really not very wise). The mets in general have done a wonderful job trying to pin this down the best they could – including WxW, JMA, etc. … Applying the science and giving good reasoning for things is the way to go. It still won’t always work out exactly the way we think, but still a lot about this system is indeed very much as we expected. 🙂

  125. I think the irony of the next two days is that, had the incoming airmass been associated with even a modest high to our north, it would have made a huge difference today.

    Mid-high 30s with some dewpoint depressions to boot.

    But, the current airmass we are in has it milder in Worcester now with a rain/snow mix because of light intensity precip, but moderate snow and 1 or 2F cooler in eastern areas. The dynamics were great, but just too much to overcome.

  127. It’s a tug of war match between the storms exit and it’s deepening. Bands have regenerated some. It’s an eastern Massachusetts special from Ashland to the coast excluding Logan, South Shore, Cape and Islands.

  128. NOT NOT NOT impressed with the snow intensity at all.
    Looked great for a while, but now, run of the mill light
    snow. Except for the burst of snow that perhaps dropped
    a slushy inch, it is NOT accumulating. The numbers will not
    be reached, sorry to say. Oh well. Another time perhaps.
    The anticipation was fun anyway.

    1. Agreed. Bands aren’t nearly as impressive as they appear on radar even whilst caught under one of those dark blue echoes.

  129. Weather is fascinating. Remember the October storm and how small the flakes were and how cold it was.

    This storm has more punch in terms of precipitation and deepening low but no cold air to work with. I was out and about just now and also a few hours ago and it really doesn’t feel like a December nor’easter. Has much more of an April feel to it. Even smells like April. I know that sounds weird, but I think each month has a distinct smell.

    While a bit unusual in December, it has happened quite a number of times. I recall several storms like this in 1998 and 1999. I believe they were in December. One had a very similar track as I remember, and produced a boatload of rain and almost no snow.

  131. Looks like that’s a wrap here. Called in 8” to NWS. Light snow here and radar looks soft going out. Ground is really warm because it looks like maybe 6 on the ground versus snow board. With October and this, it at least feels promising that mother will spin one up from time to time for us this winter even if we’re in a mild pattern.

  133. Tom – great call and analysis leading up to this storm highlighting all the detriments to a big snow given the marginal temps. You were all over this!

    1. He was indeed. I enjoyed reading toms comments.

      Tom how is Brant rock? I heard it flooded ?? Folks in Humarock said they had not seen the River as angry in a long while

      1. It’s flooded Vicki . The torrential rains & wind down this way were indeed incredibly impressive.

    2. Tom is the best never gets over excited with any storm & lays out all of the different scenarios.

    3. Thanks Mark !

      Yes, I read SSK earlier had said Brant Rock flooded.

      I didn’t go out, after noon-time, the winds were really strong and I was afraid of a falling tree limb, so I stayed put.

      It would make some sense that coastal areas got some flooding as high tide was mid afternoon, plenty after the winds had ramped up.

  135. Hello fellow bloggers! Oh man I miss being on here and tracking Winter Storms with you guys.

    I actually moved to Dallas Texas. Its 62 degrees here right now. I am looking at the blog today like I am actually experiencing the storm. There is a heavy snow band right over my town in Reading. I am jealous

    I hooe you all enjoy it because i sure miss it!

    1. Nice to hear from you, Kane.

      If you’d like you can report tornadoes for us in the spring. I think the bulk of the tornado activity occur due east of Dallas, but still I do think you’ll experience some.

      1. Hi Josh. Yea I can’t wait for spring season. I am sure I’ll experience severe weather here nothing like back in mass. Dallas is in the southern eastern edge of Tornado alley. More tornado happen to my NW I believe.

        While I am sad I won’t be seeing snow here. At least I will see very interesting storms to make up for it!

  136. Snowed pretty hard here in Harvard from mid day on – very heavy, wet snow and as expected power went out a few hours ago.

    Absolutely loving reading today’s thread all at once – living out the anticipation with JPDave all the way to 3:58 – today’s read is definitely my sign that winter is upon us!

    As always thanks to you guys for giving me a reason to love our snow season – bc even though I still long for California winters I love how much you guys love it = transitivity in action! And that about maxes out this girl’s math prowess folks! Thus why my contributions are so off topic – thanks for always putting up with me!

  138. For me, this was one of the more fascinating storms to watch and experience. I felt like I got a lesson in the weather. It was/is fun!

  140. I do believe it is raining here as temp went back up to 36.
    Certainly NO more accumulation since the initial 1 hour burst.

  141. BBB = Better Business Bureau

    BBB = Big BUST for Boston! 🙁

    I bet Logan won’t even record 0.5” of snowfall.

  145. I would respectfully submit this storm was not a bust at all …..

    Forecast to have explosive cyclogenesis ….. check

    Forecast to track around/near Nantucket, Cape ….. check

    Forecast to be a major precip producer …… check

    Forecast to begin overnight Fri and end very late this evening … check

    Forecast to have marginal temps to work with ….. check

    Forecast to need to supply its own generated cold air aloft …. check

    Oh wait, the snow amounts came in low …..

    TK has said it a million times, the models are guidance. For guidance, they did exceptionally well (see above)

    This was that critical 1F to 2F storm that was going to have its biggest effect, either way, on the snow outcome. Its just that snow seems to get so much of the storm´s pie outcome.

    I would submit far from a bust, in fact, well forecasted.

    1. Regular non weather observers only see numbers and determine bust based on those numbers (and usually the highest number they see.)

      1. Yes, you are right !

        If I was a meteorologist, I wouldn´t want any of them writing my annual job performance. 🙂 🙂

  146. As Tom said, many aspects of this forecast went right. A major precip producing bomb low, tracking exactly where we thought it would. These are the type of storms that produce the greatest snow events in SNE. We may not get such a classic setup the whole rest of the winter. To me this storm looked like a great target of opportunity to be aggressive with the forecast, and it certainly had the strength and the moisture to produce massive totals, but the thermals just weren’t there in the end.

    In terms of the model guidance… none of the global models did especially well. The CMC was probably the best and its derivative the RGEM seemed to me the best of the hi-res, though that wasn’t the case in October. Swing and a miss for the new HRRR. NAM no good either. But there really hasn’t been a consistent winner amongst the models for a long time now.

  147. Its too bad ….. even if just the last 3 hours of wrap around had any colder air to work with, it probably would have produced a good 2-4 inches of snow in the eastern third of the state.

      1. Snowing light to moderate and blowing sideways. Looking at radar and can’t imagine there’s more than a half hour left to it.

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