Wednesday December 9 2020 Forecast (12:30PM)

34 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 9-13)

Sorry for the late update today. Technology sometimes has other plans. Anyway nothing really has changed since yesterday’s discussion. today we have a week low pressure area moving through the region from northwest to southeast, dragging a warm front / cold front combo across our area as the parent low passes to our north. This is generally a moisture starved system but with cold air in place anything will be in the form of light snow or perhaps a mix of snow sleet and rain. This system will move beyond our area tonight and be replaced by a gusty northwesterly breeze and reinforcement of chilly air for Thursday. but the high pressure system that delivers that cool air will move quickly to the southeast and allow slightly mild air to arrive by Friday. This weekend still looks unsettled as low pressure approaches from the west. Model guidance has wanted to take this low well north of the region and even though the primary center of low pressure may eventually pass to the north of here, it’s a tendent warm front may never clear the region. This will be due to high pressure in eastern Canada and a cold air damming setup. We may even see a secondary low pressure area form on the warm front or the triple point where the warm front and cold front intersect to become an occlusion. areas that do get into the warm air will see a true cold frontal passage during Sunday while areas that never get into it will see the occluded portion of the front pass by. Most of the precipitation that falls this weekend, while not heavy, would be in the form of rain, but with marginal surface temperatures a potential especially north of I-90 I could resolve in the possibility of some sleet or freezing rain/drizzle. that will be something we will have to keep an eye out for, depending on the timing of any precipitation. Since this is day four and five of the forecast I will keep the wording vague for now and fine tune as we get closer.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. A few periods of very light to light snow and/or mix possible. Highs 35-42. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a risk of snow showers early, then clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 30-37. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Highs 45-52 except 38-45 in northern MA and southern NH Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Spotty light rain except possible pockets of freezing rain southern NH and northern MA. Lows 31-38. Winds NE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Highs 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 14-18)

High pressure is expected to bring fair and seasonably cool weather early next week. Next storm threat with rain/mix/snow comes by the middle to end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 19-23)

A cold front may bring some mix/snow showers early period. Next storm threat comes middle to later portion of the period.

34 thoughts on “Wednesday December 9 2020 Forecast (12:30PM)”

    1. A wise man said the models suck and don’t get caught up on run to run variations but rather the overall pattern recognition!

      1. Oh, who might that be? Just remember, when I comment
        on what a model says, that is all I am doing. Trust me I know
        and understand the caveats. 🙂

  6. EURO ensembles picking up a low that forms off the weekend’s storm cold front that goes south but the EURO ensembles are also picking up on the system for the 17th.
    https://imgur.com/a/msZ5oiW
    and though its only a handful of the GEFS members they are also increasing in this period as well.
    Lots of time between now and then but this weekend like TK pointed out could end up cooler than the guidance is showing .
    We do not entirely know whats going to happen this weekend never mind whats happening next week.

    1. Definitely ensembles the way to go looking at the extended to try and hone in on the threat periods. Going to keep seeing a lot of run to run variation in the operational models.

  7. Thanks TK.

    We made it down to 15F this morning. It was a chilly one. The solid snow cover definitely helped to serve as a refrigerant.

    Seeing a few flurries here and there today but it’s an all out snowstorm in the mountains of Vermont today. A synoptic 1-2″ across the region there but additional upslope snows in the mountains that should last into tomorrow AM.

    Killington is expecting 4-8″ and looks like a winter wonderland today….

    https://www.killington.com/the-mountain/webcams/mountain/north-ridge-cam

  8. I continue to wonder if what’s going on in the northern Pacific doesn’t play a role in our weather as we get into the heart of winter, especially when you couple it with the building Siberian and Canadian cold/snowpack, potential PV disruptions, and weakening La Nina. Ridging out west should provide added mechanism for driving the cold air further east and south across the US, unless I am just overly simplifying things here.

    Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    18h

    A very strange La Nina configuration continues. Normally the North Pacific is cool during La Nina. Not only is it warm, it’s the warmest on record for this time of year. Even vs El Nino years.

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1336493117357387776?s=20

    2. I’ll sound pessimistic but I’m just being realistic when I say I don’t think we clear in time….

        1. Yes, I’ll be up. I’m hoping we get some surprise clearing! If it doesn’t happen – oh well, but it’s worth a try!

  11. Hi friends, and thanks, TK:

    Remembering the December 9, 2005 “Snowicane”, 15 years ago today.

    As I have written before, it was the craziest, most intense weather event I have been in.

    I dug out the Public Information Statement from NWS-BOX on that storm that I have saved. I scanned it and I am linking it for y’all to read and enjoy. I apologize that the pages are not in order.

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/2zBTyLixw2Fgye3V7

  13. Good evening. Thank you, TK, and all

    Captain, I sure recall 15 years ago and several others on this date. I’m thinking of the one 42 years ago tonight though. And this night just as Mac and I would have been having our first dance at our reception, it flurried here in Sutton. How special is that 😉

      1. Basically the geomagnetic storm causes the northern lights. The storm itself is the particles from the sun. The “lights” are the interaction between those particles and our ionosphere. 🙂

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