Tuesday December 15 2020 Forecast (7:57AM)

343 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 15-19)

High pressure centered over the Great Lakes delivers a nice shot of cold air today and sets us up for our next storm threat which will bring widespread snow to the region late Wednesday night through most of Thursday. This will evolve as low pressure travels from Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley toward the Tennessee Valley, redeveloping off the Mid Atlantic Coast, then moves just south of New England while heading northeastward on Thursday. With a very cold air mass in place, most of the area will see a low water content, fluff-factor snowfall, the exception being Cape Cod and the Islands where it will be a little milder on the other side of a coastal front that forms and the snow will be a little more sticky there. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is likely near the times of high tide, especially on east-facing and north-facing shores. This system exits Thursday night and high pressure builds back in with dry and cold weather for the end of the week.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 29-36. Wind NW 10-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by increasing clouds. Highs 27-34 Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Snow arriving late evening and overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast with snow likely, ending west to east late in the day. Snow accumulation 3-6 inches southern NH with a few amounts above 6 inches possible near the NH Seacoast, 6-12 inches elsewhere with a few amounts above 12 inches possible south and southwest of Boston. Highs 18-25 except 25-32 Cape Cod. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH interior areas, 15-25 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH over southeastern MA especially Cape Cod.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Blowing snow likely. Lows 10-18. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 10.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 20-24)

Potential unsettled weather events December 20, 22, and 24. Temperatures variable, averaging near normal. Will re-evaluate this for the next update.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 25-29)

One or two precipitation events possible during this period. Temperatures variable, averaging close to normal.

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343 thoughts on “Tuesday December 15 2020 Forecast (7:57AM)”

  4. 1) TK, thank you as always.
    2) Checked the Chilean model and it has HHH for Thursday. 🙂
    3) Wondering if the Canadian High will creep north a little over the next 2 days and in turn, give the coastal low more “room” to travel just a bit more northward … random thought.

  5. Good morning and thank you Tk.
    6-12 across most of the region. how much of that could be attributed to ocean enhancement? I know that is very difficult to quantify? Curious is all.

    12 z runs start to be available soon.
    I am waiting…..

    Thanks

    .

    1. Looking over all the data the GFS is shifting slowly and watch it over the next 24 hrs. It’s wrong IMO, look at 850/700 flow down in the SE and it has it wrong.

    2. I think the 6-12 is without a ton of enhancement, that’s the wild card to overachieve. The fluff factor is another one, how cold does it up in the snow producing region of the atmosphere.

  6. Could be a very interesting situation. I am enjoying the anticipation and all of the model watching as well.

  8. I love you all and I know the chase is 99/% of the fun, but this is not that complicated of a forecast and is sweet dreams compared to the 5th. With only real complicating factors being the northern extent / cutoff of snowfall, a little ocean enhancement, and maybe some variable liquid ratios to the south . It is a good December snow storm in a as noted pattern that is rife with winter weather opportunities for SNE.

    The thinking has remained pretty consistent in the face of 20-30″ social media snowfall maps that are on day 5 now.

    For the WHW area as defined by TK
    3-6″ north of route 2
    6-9″ mass pike to route 2
    9-12″ mass pike south
    12-15″ in the favored areas south / southwest of Boston extended towards Providence
    Key for most of these lesser amounts northern extent of defined area, higher amounts southern end.
    Trending back to 6-9 ” Cape area and much less Nantucket.

    Coastal flooding concerns to me are minor but always good to be vigilant for a moderate scenario. I am not overly concerned with wind fields as I believe strongest winds stay well south of the area most likely centered in NJ.

    1. Excellent and thank you JMA. So I am a few miles South of the MA pike, So then I should be looking at 9 or perhaps 10 inches or so? Thank you for breaking it down.

      1. I tried to get a little more local and specific, as one can in the comment section, but it is a general 6-12″ event for most of the area.

        9″ Boston would be my private specific estimate.

        All these ranges could move north or south by 1 geographic rung.

        00z and 12z model runs tomorrow. Those will be more helpful than 12z and 18z today. And the 00z is still basically 20-24 hours out from the early storm impacts.

    3. So JMA that would be the south shore town of pembroke in the 9-12 or 12-15 & when does this storm kind of lock this pattern In if you will as it’s still a ways out as last night I heard it could start as late as midnight Thursday am

          1. For pembroke I agree the 12-15 range if that was to me . I think south shore should start gassing up . It’s light stuff correct so it will be very easy to remove

  11. I am the Jamming JMA. Yes the SREF snow tool used to be my go to snow predicting aid. And was much more effective than the most model output snowfall maps and proprietary algorithms of today. Now the SREF is so polluted I don’t think I have look at it in any form in 3 plus years.

    Ok. Must do some work. I am sure I will lurk later on today and hopefully update some thoughts tomorrow.

    1. That’s been a concern of mine which may be why models have been showing big totals for places like PA and NJ.

  13. Thank you, TK

    Question for you and all. As I read your description, I thought of the March 13, 1993, track. I understand the amount is not predicted to be that high but it just triggered a memory that may well be a little off

    1. I think the President´s Day 2003 snowstorm might be something more in common, in the sense of a storm with not a very low pressure that produced a lot of snow.

    1. Look at that jet at 48hr. On the 50MB. I would allow all of my Christmas presents to be returned right now, unopened For that instead.

  15. Thanks TK
    12z NAM where it stays snow is a good hit but mixing gets involved parts of eastern CT RI South Shore Cape and Islands which is why those areas have lower snow totals.

    2. Christ, tropical tidbits needs some more donations to install the latest Intel
      Chip or something. I gotta send them a few bucks

  17. 12z NAM is something g special for our area. I know it’s going to be too much to ask for that for Xmas but please Santa JMA and TK

      1. Agree it doesn’t end up that far north thus why I think we sit in a perfect location

        From Matt Noyes:

        The US Gov’t did away with “Blizzard Watches” for advanced notice of potential blizzards. So…consider this our own version here at @nbc10boston & @necn, built into our #FirstAlert for Wednesday night into Thursday. I believe counties highlighted may see blizzard conditions.

  18. The takeaway from both the NAMS if you don’t mix your seeing double digit snowfall amounts. which is the case for a good chunk of SNE.

    2. I don´t understand what the NAM or 3KM NAM sees at 500 mb on these runs.

      One constant theme is that the 500 mb feature is supposed to be slowly weakening with time and yet, these runs maintain or even slightly re-strengthen it a bit over New England.

        2. well, that explains the northward tug to everything and the storm´s lowest pressure east of the Cape.

          I´d need to see another model with the same 500 mb logic, otherwise, I consider this run rather useless.

        1. I guess ……. its projecting flow at 500 and 700 mb that I think is on the extreme edge of possible outcomes, which then of course creates a surface outcome that is on an extreme edge of possible outcomes.

          1. Thank you, I appreciate the explanation. Trying to learn how to understand these models (and meteorology more generally) better, but it’s going certainly going to take awhile.

    1. Really . I remember a couple of days ago I said watch rain or rain mixed & I got blasted lol . I hope not .

        1. Yes you were but I don’t tell lol . Do we think that’s a strong option old salty Boston/ south that would suck

  32. Looking at the HRRR and NAMNest with some of those wind gusts projected you get a wet snow near the coast you bring in the risk of power outages like you mentioned JpDave. For areas that see the powdery snow it will be blowing around if the wind gusts from those models happen.

  33. I look at the current dew-points and a high building to our north with a pretty decent associated cold airmass.

    The projections of rain making it to where these last few models have done, should be another thing to make one question these model projections.

    The ocean is still 47F, so, I guess you could get some boundary layer issues on Nantucket and maybe Chatham. But onto the south shore and up to almost Boston ???

  36. From Ryan Hanrahan
    Another little wrinkle in the forecast… New NAM comes in much farther north introducing sleet and dry slot issues to the state. Models will keep bouncing around today as they always do. We’ll keep you posted as the forecast changes.

    Ryan’s replay to eweather
    Eweather
    Toss it. You really think it can drive north into the cold, dry high pressure?

    Ryan
    A cold, dry high at the surface won’t do anything. The issue is how far north the mid level low/shortwave tracks.

    Ryan
    It’s unlikely but can’t be ruled out. Just another possibility.

    Ryan
    The best way of looking at it is that the high forms under and area of convergence aloft/sinking air. If that area shifts northwest a bit the high moves some but it also allows the storm to move farther NW. It’s all about figuring out the mid level/upper level evolution.

  37. I may be reading this incorrectly, but I do believe that the
    12Z GFS is hugging the coast a bit more than the 6Z run which should allow it to come farther North. We shall see.

  41. I think we can declare GAME ON!

    I am not so sure we can discount the NAMS, HRRR and RDPS.

    We’ll see what the CMC,UKMET and EURO have to say.

  42. With regards to NAM Ryan Hanrahan said in the post above it’s unlikely but can’t be ruled out. It is just another possiblity.

  43. I´m staying stubborn to my 3-6, 4-8 region wide, largely hitting the higher end in those contours.

    I can recall so many times about 36 – 48 hrs pre storm, you get that cycle with the northward bounce ….. and then ……

    in the cycle about 12 hrs before the start, the projections shift southward a bit.

    Either way, its going to be quite the wintery scene Thursday, enough wind to cause blowing snow along with the falling snow. And inland, away from the coastal front, its going to be real cold, like upper teens to low 20s.

    1. Tom I remember a storm in March 2017 when the NAM 36 -48 hours out kept moving northwest and was pushing the higher snow totals northwest of SNE and it turned out the NAM was right when many including myself were discounting it.

  46. From Bernie Rayno
    lots of questions and panic. I see no reason to change anything.. The focus should be on the track and strength of the 500 mb vort max. If it comes further north the mix/line will come further north and vise versa.

  48. What’s interesting to me (now that the GFS is finally on board), is the Boston snow amounts don’t change much if at all depending on positioning of the low.

    1. Some of this is due to ratios when the storm moves more N&W.
      Same qpf, lower snow totals. Some of those ratios would have the snow me cement and virtually almost rain.

    1. Rations really becoming an issue near the coast and this
      was unexpected.

      Next thing we know it will track down the Hudson and it will be all rain. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      2. Forecast for Jamaica Plain …..

        Wednesday night: Snow developing after midnight, accumulating 1-3 inches by day break. Wind, NE becoming E, then SE by morning. Low temp near 22F, rising to 30F by morning.

        Thursday: Snow changing to rain then changing back to snow before ending. Little additional accumulation expected. High near 41F, falling into the upper 20s during the afternoon. Wind SE to S, becoming NW during the afternoon.

        Thursday night: Plenty of audible swearing.

        🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. ha ha ha ha ha ha I think not, but who knows the way
          things are going. Love it.

          I’d rather the dry stuff, but if it is white, I’ll take it. 🙂

    1. Would love to see 12+ here in coastal CT, but I’ll still enjoy a few inches of snow if we get

      Haven’t seen more than 3 or 4 inches since moving from Medford two years ago.

      1. Living in CT all my life I feel bad for the snow lovers in southeastern CT as they seem to always get ripped off. If some of the guidance is correct this might be the case here.

        1. Yeah, still learning to adjust my criterion for snow excitement downward after living in the Boston metro area for nearly my whole life.

          Just need to learn to appreciate what I can get. I did see an F1 tornado out my window a couple of months back, so at least I got to see something wild down here.

          1. The Bethany Hamden area of CT has seen two tornadoes in the past three years.
            For snowfall in CT Northwest Hills and Northeast Hills are good spots to be in especially if you get a storm like we had first Saturday of December. Where I am in Watertown when those storms happen I am right on the edge. If I just travel up route 63 I am looking at a winter wonderland.

  53. Too much flipping from a few runs, this ends up south by about 30 miles and most of SNE stays all snow and cold.

  56. This has become a modelogical disaster and we are less than 36 hours from first flakes (or rain drops at JPDave’s) 😀

    1. Nah …… just not reacting to one cycle of model runs ……

      Experience of past similar scenarios and staying the course 🙂 🙂

      1. This isn’t one cycle though…most of these models have been trending further and further NW the last 24-48 hours.

      2. Hadi with all due respect for you my good friend you can not declare that as of now . Now you are the expert not I but it is now a possibility of happening. Of course it’s not set yet & I will enjoy the conversation from you & the other experts above & you all do phenomenal work , thank you

  57. Epic FAIL from the GFS. Not surprised in the least bit it has finally adjusted. Always a red flag when you have literally a dozen other models disagreeing with it.

    This NW trend needs to stop. Can’t believe we have gone from being in the sweet spot here and worrying about a miss south to dealing with dry slot and mixing issues!

    At least the ski areas will be getting into the action now.

    2. Is there evidence of a Charlie Hole developing in central MA on this run and especially on the UKMET?

      Looking like two areas of heavy snow – one in far northwestern zones i.e eastern NY state and another over Boston and its southwestern suburbs from ocean enhancement.

  61. Mark I am starting to worry about a dry slot where I am. I remember a storm a week before Christmas last year and it looked like we were in the sweet spot for snow and then 24 – 30 hours prior to the storm the models trended toward an ice scenario. I don’t think I see ice where I am but a dry slot certainly possible.

  62. From Bernie Rayno
    One more time…No changes to my forecast. I understand what all the mesoscale models are doing. I will be back this afternoon

  63. I have to admit it is a little funny to watch what essentially amounts to live memes with different people’s reactions to one set of model runs. 😉

    1. It ain’t one set, its a trend that started 48 hours ago and the trend is not our friend! Talk me off the ledge please….

      1. Use your experience.

        Decent cold airmass to the north, a mass of heavy dense air.

        This is a system that is moving ENE, look at the isobars.

        Nothing screams the surface representations.

        1. One theme that has been consistent and I think you alluded to this is that the models seem to be picking up on non-synoptic ocean enhanced snows for eastern MA 🙂

  67. How many times have we seen models say warm air invasion and with this type of cold set up and freezing temps ahead of the system, it does happen. We watch they rain snow line never move up. IMO most places apart from the immediate south coast should be fine. Biggest concerns is banding and where that sets up. Still think this ends up south by 25-35 miles.

  68. I saw waffle flakes the first Saturday of December when the rain turned to snow. I ended up with just under an inch.

  69. The EURO at 48 hrs has a 50 kt (850 mb) jet over the south coast and CT

    I am ready to increase my snow amounts, but hold steady on not worrying about a dry slot or a rain/snow line.

    1. Hopefully any rain/snow line gets no closer than the CC Canal. Hard to believe we could be going from a fluffy event to heavy cement in 24 hours.

      1. I dont think much has changed on the fluffy vs wet snow to be honest.

        The immediate coast was always going to have a more dense snow.

        I think, just a very short way away from the coast, this is a dry snow.

      2. Wait …… that´s an inch melted through all of CT almost to Boston and a half an inch all the way to Concord, NH.

        Thats a lot melted, no ?????

    2. I like this snow map best. Likely, it’s the closest scenario that actually pans out. Cold and slightly suppressed. Still a very nice hit for most! Just not a blockbuster in my eyes.

      1. I agree. I think this map looks reasonable once you tick the snow amounts up by 2-3″ for ratios. And if you look at the 6z Euro, the 12z run is nearly IDENTICAL. Euro seems locked in and has been fairly consistent for several runs now, making only small adjustments and shifts

        1. This has been my thinking since yesterday. 6-8 inches for Boston with around a foot to the south and southwest. Nice dumping. Just didn’t appreciate the 15-20 inch totals anywhere in southern New England England.

      1. Interesting. So that’s now most if not all models doing this. Wasn’t this laughed at a couple days ago when the NAM was doing it?

    1. For me, a blockbuster is a minimum of 18 inches. It’s all based on perception as it is very subjective. Others may consider a blockbuster as a foot or more.

      1. If pembroke gets 10 inches to me that’s a pretty big storm . And if we got 10 at the Hospital I would be there for awhile . I mean we get a few inches there & I am there for awhile . Very happy to be sitting this one out & enjoying it at home . I may get up Thursday at 5 am to enjoy the height of it . Is projected start time Boston still around midnight

      2. Agree, 18 inches + for blockbuster. 12-18 for a really decent storm. Anything less than 12 inches is ho-hum to me.

  77. Latest HRRR brings mixing into most of CT and up to Boston later Thursday morning. This run still brings widespread double digit snowfall amounts.

    1. I think this has room to be a snow to rain situation for much of the area. I certainly hope not. Not especially liking the 00 mb set up in the current NAM run either.

  81. Looking at the Cod site of the HRRR with the kuchera snowfall showing 16 inches for Boston 20 inches for Worcester and 16 inches for Hartford.

  85. So is it time to react the other way because of the 18z NAM?

    What if the 00z is warmer? 😉

    all kidding aside, after looking at all available data today at the moment I will make no changes from my discussion this morning… Of course reevaluation will come with time.

  87. Could you see the weather having a Dow Jones Industrial Market?

    It would have reached 2 new highs and crashed to 0 three times btwn 9 am and 3 pm today …………

    1. Good map.

      Absolutely love the NWS handling of this entire situation. These are the true experts.

  91. I was intentional in what I wrote on this blog this morning, prior to the daytime model runs, that today’s 12z and 18z output would not be particularly helpful.

      1. Yes – fun fact

        Last Thursday 12z GFS delivered about 0.5″ of QPF from this system to Norwood, the 12z ECMWF that day was 2.0″ for Norwood.

        Today they are within 0.2″ of each other 1.1″ for the GFS and 1.3″ for the ECMWF.

        For all the back and forth today that I same seeing, if you ignore all of those horrendous and useless model generated snowfall maps, how much have practical snowfall impacts really changed for most of our geography?

  92. Dr stupid. Thank you as always for the maps. And thank you to all for your models. JMA….Thank you very much

  96. Nice broadcast video by Eric Fisher. He noted a couple of things to watch:

    1. Some afternoon Snow showers near the coast that could cause some slippery spots.
    2. A fetch off of the ocean that may keep the snow going until
    Thursday night sometime in Eastern MA that may add to the snow totals.

    Nice presentation:

    https://boston.cbslocal.com/category/weather/

    1. I haven’t seen any TV guys today but I’ve been very pleased with how they have handled the run up to this.

      We all know that they have to bend to the pressure of the bosses, because after all news has become entertainment as much as information… But I think they have done a great job finding that balance and delivering the information we need. Kudos to the lot.

        1. They all know how to do that very well…

          The tug of war has always been with whoever tells them what has to be put on the air and a way to follow up whatever the news director scripts for the anchors to say. It’s sort of like when they pop that obvious fake photo of the Aurora without AJ realizing they were going to do it and he had to scramble to cover himself… I would not have wanted to have been put in that position or I may have just called it out on the air. HAHA!

          1. Hi Mr. Woods Hill, long time follower. I love your blog, and I read it every winter. Thank you for all that you have done. I’ve been following along since CBS blog days (if I recall that correctly). I believe you may be talking about that Aurora photo that was taken above my house by my neighbor. She was taking a photo of meteors and didn’t even realize what she had captured until she was analyzing her photos later. She was shocked when she saw that image. I’m sure she did some editing, but it seems to be legit. Just wanted to give you the heads up.

            1. I know there are editing features that can add the aurora. I’ve seen a very similar photo on a photo page I am on on Facebook that the person posting it said they edited in. There was no aurora observed that evening in our area.

  97. I have been lurking on this site since you left the bz site. I love the excitement about incoming weather (especially snowstorms). I mostly like the no hype version of incoming weather. I did not think I would ever actually post but I need all of your expertise to make sure my son can get home from college.
    He will traveling 90 to 495 through MA – ending up in Southern NH. He can’t leave until Thursday!

    My big questions are – How bad do you think the storm will actually be? Is there a better time for him to travel or should we just have him hold off until Friday?

    1. He may be able to leave later Thursday and be ok. If that’s not possible, Friday will be fine.

    2. Connie, first, so nice to have you post. Please come back. And second, having your kids home for the holidays and your family together …especially this year…is very much needed. I’ll pray for safe travels and maybe you can let us know !!

      1. Thank you so much! I
        He wasn’t able to come home for Thanksgiving because of Covid and this is his first semester away. I am missing him something fierce but I want him safe. Trust Woods Hill on this. Will let you know when he makes it home.

  98. I see the GFS cave is officially complete. From a projection of 25″ for Boston Sat. night down to 2″ Sun night/Mon AM and now back up to 15″ tonight. It was the only model (at a lead time of 2-3 days) that was out to lunch with its weak and overly suppressed solution.

    1. I’ve known him for years.. used to work together. He’s got a great sense of humor and is an excellent meteorologist.

    1. One could answer yes regarding the October 30 event.

      One could answer no way regarding The event earlier this month.

      It always has to be taken on a case-by-case basis, with heavy use of meteorology.

  104. Recon flying into the Gulf this evening to pick up additional data for the storm which should be available for the 0z runs. They are flying into the Atlantic tomorrow.

  105. 18z GFS long range not showing much warmth through the rest of the month, along with a couple post Christmas coastal storm threats, and maybe some rain/snow/mix on Christmas day itself.

    Overall pattern, if it has a clue, looks pretty good. Of course, take this with a grain of salt after this storm.

    At a minimum, it appears most locations should be able to hold on to this snow to secure a White Christmas.

  107. Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    14m

    A lot of guidance showing a QPF dropoff toward western-central MA. Picking up on some subsidence west of the coastal front band, perhaps?

    1. I noticed that. More over the Berks, eastern NY and Eastern MA. One model even illustrated a Charlie hole in central MA.

            2. Not liking that dry slot over my area, that is usually placed on the east side of the Berks by the Connecticut river valley. Looks like we’re being haunted by the ghost of Charlie from Christmas past.

              1. Well it hasn’t happened yet and is only showing up on a few models. I think we see double digit snow totals regardless. We should all get in on that initial surge of heavy snow moving in from the SW and then we’ll see how it plays out for the latter half of the storm.

  110. I don’t have a snowblower and my back and neck feel tweaked today. Not looking forward to this snow primarily because of removal.

      1. Hahaha. We don’t see a snow blower either. Until today my son in law had a half broken shovel. I’ll suggest the leaf blower method 🙂

    2. Thanks for posting these maps once again. I’m liking that area of 12-15 where I am to the southwest of Boston. I suspect that may be where the coastal front sets up.

      2. I agree Arod! I’m a little north and west of you but should be in a good spot!! Great job guys. I was wrong again. Keeping the streak going.

        1. You weren’t wrong TJ! Nothing has happened yet and as WxWatcher suggested, some parts of the forecast will work out while other parts will reveal surprises. Enjoy the anticipation!

    1. Not really it’s in here almost at midnight so Wednesday evening should be ok if timing is correct.

  114. What I like is that the snow may stick around for a few days, hopefully longer.

    The last couple of cold seasons, when we have gotten snow, it feels like it melted within 2 days.

    I actually like the brown earth covered white. Its more pleasant to look at.

  115. As long as there are no big warm ups or a rainorama coming with the amount of snow the models are showing I think we got a good shot at having a White Christmas which is something we have not had since 2017.

    1. that would be nice. In our area, I think its been longer than that since having snow on the ground on Christmas.

    1. I still can´t agree to the northern third of that snow shield projection.

      So much dry air to overcome at the start and continually advecting in. I think I get that the lift with the track of the upper features project heavy bands of snow up there, but ………

      1. A bit overdone though I think it had the right idea as it pertains to the heavier axis of snow over eastern MA, the Berks and eastern NY. I do not think those impressive numbers make it that far north into NH and VT as depicted on this particular model run.

        The models are definitely coming into focus regarding where the highest totals might be. I am still not underestimating the strength of that H and the dry air that must be overcome at least initially which could adversely impact what the models are spitting out.

  120. Welcome Bart and Connie 🙂 Nice of you to join our crazy family. Tom, as it pertains to the 0Z NAM, I don’t think the projection it illustrated from Boston south and east is all that unreasonable. I have a difficult time, however, seeing the amounts north and west of the I95 corridor being realized, the exception being the Berks and eastern NY.

      2. I think there is a going to be a decent outer band setting up shop somewhere to the north of us. That signal is showing up now on many of the models. But I agree, not sold it will be that far north as the Canadian guidance has been selling, and certainly not as intense as is being depicted.

    1. Yes, a pocket of 16-24 Boston north, west and southwest. Models have been keying in on this area as well though not as far west as this run of the HRRR

      1. Ocean enhancement at work there, and potentially backside precip lingering well into the day on Thursday in those areas.

        I think a lot of people are going to be happy with this storm!

        1. Others will be disappointed due to subsidence and losing the battle to dry air but yes, many will be at least satisfied.

  123. From NsfwWX
    Recon missions for our system were underway a while ago, models starting with the 00z GFS should have invested most of the data… by 06z tomorrow full data will have been ingested

  124. The HRRR is about to show us that its recent changes made it a rather poor performer for systems such as this.

    The GFS, on the other hand, now has the benefit of some recon data and I suspect will support the discussion posted at the top of today’s blog.

    1. So you still think no weight should be given to any of the higher res short range models (NAM, NAM3km, HRRR, RGEM, RPM, etc) now that we are less than 24 hours from the onset of the storm? Or wait to their 6z runs before adjusting totals up if needed?

      1. This is not going to be a “blockbuster”, but it will be sizable.

        The numbers put out by mets like NWS are better than what you’re seeing on those short range models.

    1. Not liking what it did to the snow totals in eastern CT but otherwise no major changes from 18z. It did shave off the higher totals up north in southern NH/VT a bit as well.

  126. Thoughts from folks on snow days when all remote? I think our kids deserve it and it’s part of childhood and they need it.

    1. I agree, but our school district does not. The kids will all be home remote schooling on Thursday. Our school district is only closing now if there are storm related road closures or widespread power outages.

    2. Snow days for my son don’t count so I’m suspecting they will just give them the day off . His school went all in everyday with remote option & with phenomenal remote learning with virtual live classes. He is fully remote though .

    3. Well, this should put an end to the yearly complaining that the kids have to go too late into June. 😉

  128. This sounds like a good plan to me.
    Tweet from Ralphs Weather OBS
    Sleep tonight.
    Nap tomorrow.
    Stay up all tomorrow night
    Dig out Thursday morning.

  129. This is why I feel snowdays are important.
    1. When kids have “vacations” there is typically some of those teachers that decide its a good time to give a book report or a math packet or some other project. So yeah you do not go to school but you still have work to do.
    2. Weekends, the teachers decide to give you stuff to do during the weekend.
    3. Snow days on the other hand, kids should be all done with what they need have done for the following day, so its an actual day off with no way that the teacher can put something else on them and its very good when its on a Friday/Monday which turn to an actual long weekend with not school stuff to do.
    4. Its just a mental break and if a kid is falling behind, well its a good day to catch up on that work or catch up on that sleep.

    SO its very hard for me to be supportive of this no more snow days thing.
    So sure do it this year if you want but once things get back to normal in person classes it goes back to the way it was.

  135. (Here is the latest from the NWS Norton forecast discussion):

    Based on overnight guidance, some notable changes were made to snow
    amounts with the morning package. I`ve stressed higher snow amounts
    further to the north and west; after a front-end-thump of heavy snow
    overnight, this transitions into a potentially slow-pivoting
    snowband affecting the Berkshires, western/central MA into Hartford
    and northern Tolland Counties in CT. There is still spatial
    uncertainty in where this band may set up, and while amounts here
    were raised into the 12-18″ range, local amounts in this admittedly
    rather broad area could be as much as 20″ for those who happen to
    remain in this quasi-stationary band. There is high confidence in
    these interior areas receiving the most snow in general, though the
    exact snow amounts still are uncertain. In southeast MA, amounts
    were lowered slightly as a coastal front should force a brief period
    of above-freezing temperatures around early Thursday morning that
    may cut into snow amounts somewhat. These southeast areas, which
    could extend as far north as the Boston area, will also be dealing
    with a flash-freeze as the coastal front collapses on NW winds later
    Thurs AM (to be discussed below).

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