Thursday December 17 2020 Forecast (7:14AM)

278 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 17-21)

The WHW forecast area continues to be impacted by a winter storm, dumping a good amount of snow on much of the region, with a bit less to the southeast due to wetter snow, and even less on parts of the outer part of Cape Cod and over the Islands due to a change to rain there . The mix/rain areas will see a flip back to snow before the end of the precipitation, and areas that had rain and wetter snow will experience a quick freeze-up when the cold air returns during the midday and afternoon hours today. There is also a drier slot with less or even no snow falling in the Merrimack Valley through parts of central MA. These areas will see additional snowfall though as a heavier band to the north and west rotates back through while weakening. Eventually all of the snow will move out from west to east, ending with accumulation with most areas somewhere in the expected ranges. Tonight comes clearing and mid winter cold, despite it still being autumn. Colder than normal but dry weather will dominate Friday and Saturday. Sunday will see slight temperature moderation but also some cloudiness and the possibility of snow and rain showers as a weak low passes by. Following this should be weak high pressure with a dry, seasonable Monday.

TODAY: Overcast with snow except mix/rain South Coast and Cape Cod for a while before changing to snow by midday from west to east. Total snow accumulation: 1-2 inches lower portion of outer Cape Cod (Chatham) as well as Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, 2-4 inches upper portion of outer Cape Cod (Provincetown) as well as Mid Cape, 4-8 inches Cape Cod Canal area as well as South Shore up to about Plymouth and westward to the immediate coast of RI, and 8-14 inches elsewhere. Highs 25-32 north and west of Boston, 33-40 elsewhere with mildest Cape Cod and Islands in the morning, followed by falling temperatures midday and afternoon. Wind E to NE 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH southeastern MA and southeastern RI, shifting to NW during the afternoon, and NE to NW 10-20 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH elsewhere.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Blowing snow likely. Lows 10-18. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 10.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow/mix/rain Highs 33-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy early, then clearing. Lows 21-28. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 22-26)

Potential unsettled weather events December 22 and 24-25. Temperatures near to slightly above normal dropping to below normal at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 27-31)

One or two precipitation events possible during this period. Temperatures start cold then moderate.

278 thoughts on “Thursday December 17 2020 Forecast (7:14AM)”

  4. Looking out the window, I guestimate that we’re at 10 inches now (Perhaps a bit more) and counting. I’ll get outside later.

    1. Dude it’s NFG out here and it’s not gonna get better. I’ll take the trophy from Charlie for now. Goddamit.

      1. 🙂 I feel for ya, but generally you do much better out that way. You can’t have it all. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  7. Models did a nice job picking up on those two axis’s of heavy snow: one over eastern MA and the other across eastern NY and western MA with an area of lighter snow as in the middle.

    1. Latest HRRR shows the snow lingering in Eastern MA until about 1AM tomorrow morning. Light to be sure, but snow in the air
      with minor accumulations adding to the total.

      Would not surprise me to see even Logan come in at 15 inches
      on this one. We shall see. May possibly even be the largest pre-Christmas snow storm ever.

      And Arod, I agree. I think the models did a very fine job with this one and I also think that the much maligned NAM performed exceedingly well. Remember, it was the first one to bring the SNOW so far North and to close off at 500 mb.

  8. Radar shows no end to this band here in the Boston area for the time being. Well on our way to 15 inches plus in some areas.

    1. Again, I can’t disagree. Looking that way.

      The yellow echoes keep propagating and remain entrenched across Eastern MA.

        1. it almost looks like we have some sort of convergence zone going on in the Boston area with NNE winds on the coast and N to NNE just inland. Combine this with the moist flow and the lift is producing these echoes. The ones to the South are likely synoptic.

  9. 34 here now the precipitation seems to be picking up a tad . The snow here is very heavy cement like snow .

  11. Thanks, TK!

    Hey, Good Morning, everyone!
    Hi to the first-timers here at WHW, too!

    7.5″ at 0800 looking at the snow gauge in Taunton.
    There seems to be a little more on the deck. 9″?

    32.4 degrees

  12. We look like we’re going to get into that heavy band in the next half-hour coming up from Fall River.

  14. Yellow echoes have gone poof, but still under dark green and still snowing hard. Big Donut hole “just” west of Worcester.

        1. Quite frankly, there was no noticeable difference
          in the snow intensity between the yellow echoes and the dark green echoes. 🙂

          Let it SNOW! Let it SNOW! Let it SNOW!

          White Christmas? Good chance!

  15. Thank you, TK.

    Thankfully, I was quite wrong when I thought this storm would be a near-miss.

    I don’t believe I’ve ever experienced more snow before Christmas, at least not in one storm. That’s the amazing thing about New England. Every year there are surprises, in practically every season.

    Just wrote an email to my daughter who’s in London telling her about the snow. As I said in my note, just a couple of months ago we had days in the 80s and high humidity. I had my oscillating fans going in late September/early October. Only a short time later, all the leaves are gone from the trees, vegetation is dormant, birds are barely active, and now we have a foot of snow and mid-winter cold.

  16. Thank You TK!
    Well after 10 1/2 “ we’re getting dry slotted here. Maybe a little more on the back end like TK suggested to round me out to an even foot. Looks like Christmas now.!

  20. Good Morning , Still snowing hard in Essex . I would guess about a foot but the wind is just howling so it is really tough to tell with all the blowing and drifting .
    Enjoy !!!

      2. The snow hole is hungry and in the way OS. I feel like I’m watching a Carl Sagan documentary where he talks about light not even escaping g a black hole.

  24. 11.4 here in Billerica Ma with light snow. The heavier stuff is now down near 128 and seems to be staying to the south and east of me.

  26. I just measured 11 inches. Even though I am getting lighter snow I think I could get a foot of snow out of this.

  27. 12Z NAM has the snow quitting in Boston at 4 AM tomorrow.

    Eric was talking about this the other day and even that this would help pile up the snow totals.

  30. Last report NYC came in with 6.5 inches of snow. They had only 4.8 inches all of last winter. Binghamton, NY I saw with 41 inches of snow. Some of the short range models nailed that area and said that area would be hit hard.

    1. Should have taken the snow display off. This site has been messed up all year on the snow depiction. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  32. All Hail To The Farmers’ Almanac for getting this right for predicting a major east coast storm for middle of December. I know I will not hear the end of this from people I know act like it’s their bible. I say lucky guess. Now let’s see if they get right the 12-24 inches of snow for second week of February.

  33. Trying to get my son home safely from his first semester of college today. He is traveling from Dutchess County, NY to Southern NH. He will be traveling 290 to 495.

    When is a good time to have him start?

    Based on what I can see on TV radar it looks to me like leaving NY between 12:00 and 1:00 he should be safe.

  34. Thanks TK.

    Had just over 4″ of snow down here with this event before a change to sleet then rain. Most of that 4″ came in about 2 hours, and the rates were briefly quite extreme before the changeover. Largest snow event I have seen since March 2018. And a fairly well cooperative forecast here 🙂

    Been very busy with work so kind of lost track of the happenings in SNE. Looks like a solid snowstorm. However, totals there will pale in comparison to the potentially historic numbers coming in out of the southern tier of New York. Amounts of 35 to 45″ in the Binghamton, NY area, and I’d imagine we’ll see a few 50″ totals trickle in by the time it ends. As usual, going to be a lot of lessons to take from this one.

    1. WxWatcher down your way Philly ended that streak of less than an inch of snow for 651 days coming in with 6.3 inches. Last year they only had 0.3 for the entire winter.

    1. Where did they measure that? Out at Boston Buoy. Must have been MUCH wetter snow at Logan than here. We are clearly over a foot here in JP. 🙂

      2. Reporter in either common or Gardens just said 10 there but I don’t know if it was a guess or actual measurement. Was watching 7

  36. Thanks TK. Just reported 11.5″ to the NWS here in Coventry and still snowing lightly. The models certainly did nail the snow hole in this area as retrac mentioned. A bit disappointed but still a nice storm and still a bit more to come.

    The totals coming in from Upstate NY are astronomical. My mother in Amsterdam, NY, who had been expecting 6-10″, woke up to 2 feet of snow and its still snowing heavily under that band. Some 30″ reports from Albany and Saratoga County as well. Will be a top 10 storm there.

    And then there is Binghamton which sat under that intense band for hours overnight. 41″ including 18.5″ in 3 hours and 15 minutes. And with no lake effect influence. Incredible.

    Many of the short range models, along with their projected Kuchera snow totals, nailed this. The Canadian model suite in particular, which had been fartherst north all along.

    2. Agree Mark. Models on balance and from an overall perspective were really solid. If anything they might have been underdone on QPF for the NE in Aggregate I don’t know. Bernie is a wicked spaz but props to his overall forecast that far in advance.

  38. I saw something earlier where in just this one storm Binghamton picked up half of what they get for an entire winter season.

  39. Some snow pictures from the jackpot zone:

    Near Albany NY:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2020_12/Untitled.jpg.2e0fa68572b6f3a844a6692792133026.jpg

    Near Magic Mountain VT:

    https://scontent-bos3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/131900430_10221637717390388_4380845702155412959_o.jpg?_nc_cat=110&ccb=2&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=n_cAl9dxnF4AX_KzcJM&_nc_ht=scontent-bos3-1.xx&oh=78ee70a6a4ed73433bf02f77415a8823&oe=5FFFD68F

    Near Binghamton:

    https://twitter.com/adam_gillwx/status/1339491382038323201/photo/1

    1. Click on the individual pictures in that Twitter link to blow up and expand those photos. And keep in mind they got another 10″ on top of that after the pictures were taken!!

  41. Mark looking at those photos it brings back memories of the Blizzard of 2013 here in CT. A solid snowstorm here in CT which looks like a general 8-16 inches.

      1. Thanks all. Sure made me smile too. Seven year old managed to clean my entire car. I was surprised he could reach the roof.

      1. Thank you. That is the youngest Rilyn Mac. Evan….doing my car in the pictures ….somehow managed to do his dads truck. And I didn’t think he’d reach the roof of mine. One determined young man.

  45. Winding down the accumulation now most areas..

    The report ranges for the WHW forecast area are about 7.5 to about 14 inches with less to the SE as was expected. No doubt a few of those numbers will increase as they were reported before the accumulation had finished.

  46. Woke up hoping it would be a little colder in the boundary layer here, but to no avail.

    Still 36F. See Buoy is at 050 and dropped a 1F.

    In lighter precip, its thick drizzle, in heavier precip, its a majority snow. Nothing has really melted from overnight.

    Our street has been plowed well, what remains is a layer of slush and water.

      1. Tom it looks nice but the wind is blowing it around. Another thing for those going to shovel bundle up as the wind chills at least where I am are in the teens.

    1. Too mild this coast to the ocean. I am seeing a mix of rain and wet snow. Need a temp drop of a 1F or 2F 🙂 🙂

  50. Vicki the 10 inches you heard friend heard for NYC is correct.. I am looking at the latest snowfall report from Central Park and it is showing 10 inches. With this storm Philly and NYC got more snow than they did all of last winter. Philly had 0.3 last winter they have 6.3 so far this winter and NYC had 4.8 last winter they have 10 inches so far this winter.

  51. 10:30 am

    Boston Harbor buoy wind now at 030, temp dropped to 34F from 36F a few hours ago.

    I hope to get back to complete snow in the next hour and top this cement with hopefully 1-3 or 2-4 inches of snow by this evening.

    1. Yup, the precip could carry on a while down here due to a slight onshore component later today, so there are many hours of slow accumulation to go after this steadier batch.

  54. Keeping an eye and see if Boston cracks the top 5 on this list for biggest snowfalls prior to Christmas. Eric Fisher posted this list the other day.
    1. 16.2 back on 12/7/03
    2. 15.4 back on 12/22/75
    3. 13.0 back on 12/13/60
    4. 12.9 back on 12/6/81
    5. 12.5 back on 12/20/08

  55. Boston Harbor Buoy shows ocean running at +2 ft surge.

    If that holds onto a 11.3 ft tide, that would be a 13.3 ft tide at 12:52pm, looking to verify minor coastal flooding.

    Its those tide and surge combined 14 ft and higher tides that cause the biggest problem.

    That absolute bomb (963mb) 3 or 4 January´s ago had a 10.4 ft tide with a 4ft storm surge for a 14.4 ft level along with much bigger waves. The coastal flooding was bad enough in Marshfield they actually did a few water rescues.

  57. The models yesterday did an excellent job of forecasting that dry hole that developed over SE NH this morning. Those “futurecast” radars usually don’t even come close.

  60. The accumulating snow has stopped here in Billerica about a half hour ago, still some small flakes flying but nothing accumulating. A ever so light wind has formed and is starting to blow the snow on the ground a bit. Measured 12.2 inches here in Billerica. Wouldn’t be somethin if that heavier snow up in NY and Vermont was further south. NY, VT and NH I totally busted on.

    Looking down the pipe line
    Tk alluded to these possible periods of time but
    Monday night/Tuesday next week weak polar jet system if I am not mistaken looks to dive down from the great lakes
    With another larger system being possible around X-Mas
    I am not to impressed with that system as most of the signals I am seeing is rather marginal in terms of temperature.

  61. Just measured 7” in the desert. Wind might have gotten to my board a little but what’s the diff. out in the Charlie Hole.

  62. About 10 inches here in Hingham. To Mark: a lot of it was wet and heavy. Leaf blower method wouldn’t work. You owe me a new back lol

    1. Blizzard like conditions at times . I just drove around my neighborhood & center of town to observe & the roads are a mess .

  64. We got 10ish inches in New Haven area. Maybe a bit under.

    A decent band just set up over us. I’m assuming it won’t stick around too much longer, but nice to see some in the daylight

  65. Ok – you got me. Even I, snow curmudgeon personified – have to admit it. This one is beautiful – a flipping winter wonderland and I am LOVING it! Even more so reading the joy here on WHW 🙂

    2. After the last few seasons, happy to see southern and central ? ski areas get this. Hopefully, they can do some social distance business in the new few months.

  68. Visibility 1/2 miles. Horizontal wind whipped snow.

    The yard looks like the beach on a very windy day.

    The cement isn´t moving, but the new snow atop it looks like sand being blown around on a windy day at the beach.

  69. I’ll take the 9-10 inches we got up in Amesbury. It’s really pretty by the Merrimack. Since we moved here 2 years ago from North Reading, I’ve noticed that we get a little less snow up here than we did in NR. Am I imagining this?

    1. There is the magical snow hole that forms in the Merrimack Valley due to a snow shadow effect or we end up mixing

    1. They sat under that death band for a good long while, not to say the snow on either side of the band, wasn’t intense enough. 🙂

  73. Until and unless any ocean bands set up later, then
    this thing is just about a wrap here.

    I am thinking somewhere between 12-14 inches. I “hope” to get a
    measurement later. Too many people out on the street right now and I don’t see a mask on any of them!_@#(!@)(&#)(!&@#

      1. Crap!!!! that sounds awfully old. I do NOT feel that old, that’s for sure and inside I still feel like a teenager.

  75. I’d say this storm delivered. Not a Kowabunga storm in my area.
    Certainly In NY and VT it was worth of a double/triple Kowabunga.

  76. I don´t know if you saw a post of mine towards the end of the last blog Mark, but great job on this storm !! You really questioned the GFS and also focused a lot on that heavy band that clobbered Binghamton, Albany and southern VT and it sure as heck verified. 🙂

  77. Just came in and boy that added up.
    Measured 15.7, saw a 13 inch total at 8 AM from JP so I feel like I didn’t screw this measurement up. Checked multiple places as protected as possible.

  80. Great job everyone! The storm was really nice and a lot of fun with the kids.

    What’s next? Anything on the horizon?

    1. There is an off shore storm trying to develop early next week that needs to be watched and unfortunately the models are all showing a system passing to our west around Christmas Eve/Day that would produce a brief warm up and band of rain showers moving through. Still a ways off.

      1. 12.9 for Logan is respectable. Just out for session two and must be close to 17 this point. Didn’t do a measurement, but my neighboor did and he came in at 17.6.

  81. Just came in from clean up. Bright sun through partly cloudy skies at 1:00pm here.

    We got about 8″ here. The valley area towns just east of the Connecticut River in Hampshire County got a general 7-9″

    Overall forecast was pretty good. But holy expletive, New York State !

    I am a model skeptic as you know, but there was some good output for this storm.

    The faster, further east progression of the Monday system I think will prove to be one of the most impactful reasons for the actual outcomes of today’s event.

  82. Just talked to my mother in Amsterdam, NY and she received 30″. She was stunned when she woke up this morning. They only had about an inch on the ground at 11PM and by 6AM there was about 2 feet. Basically snowed 3″/hour there for 7 hours and then continued to snow heavily 1-2″ per hour most of the morning as the stationary band slowly decayed.

    Wish I was up there for this one!

      1. It started 6-10″ and by last night in the midst of the storm, the NWS upped it to 10-20″. Still not nearly enough.

  83. Early signals that Christmas Day might be cold to very cold or have falling temps as the day progresses.

    The signals for 12/22 are promising for preventing a major modification of temps, especially for the interior. Getting some wet snow out of that would be an additional extra.

  85. According to Eric 12. 9 for Boston which is tied for fourth for biggest snowfall prior to Christmas. I think they should be able to 0.1 to be in fourth alone.
    I also believe you could add Boston to the list of NYC and Philly where they now have more snow than they did all of last winter.

  90. Mark, thanks for sharing the tremendous snow totals (and pictures) from your home state (I know you live in Connecticut now, but are from NY). Your Mom must be thrilled to have 30 inches of snow. I know I’d be.

    Having a healthy snow pack in the Boston area, but also an even healthier snow pack west of us, and of course to our north, will contribute to some radiational cooling but may also prevent major warm-ups from any west/southwesterly that may develop over the coming week.

    1. You are welcome! I enjoyed the snow here but am envious that I was not up there for this one. I’ll get to see what is left though when I am up there during the holiday week.

  91. So, If I am not mistaken the GFS Par (run only at 00z did way better than the operational GFS with this system and the last one as well if I am not mistaken.

    1. 9.2 inches was recorded well over an hour ago so I think with snow still falling & more to come I think I’ll hit 12” easily . It’s light now but definitely sticking .

  93. Not sure how this ended up above.

    12.9 for Logan is respectable. Just out for session two and must be close to 17 this point. Didn’t do a measurement, but my neighboor did and he came in at 17.6

  95. The 17 inch has to be too much. Must have some blowing and drifting involved. I am guessing more like 15 is a realistic number.

  97. I can’t measure accurately with the blowing. I know we absolutely had an accurate 11.6 this am. It seems we had one more inch this pm. So conservatively 12.5

  98. 13.2 inches for Logan.

    So far they are at 24th place for snowiest December on record. Long way to go to reach #1. 😉 However, they will come in above normal snowfall for the month, no matter what happens the rest of the month.

    My final was 14.0 here. Viewing the reports, the vast majority in the 8-14 forecast area came in between 8 & 14 and there were a few under 8 and a few over 14. I’ll take it, from a forecasting standpoint. Just finished a 2-hour shoveling job and now it’s time to shower & have hot tea & then dinner & watch some holiday specials tonight. 🙂

    2. Looks like your December winter forecast verification is already pretty much in the bag! Here’s to hoping that accuracy plummets come January 1st (sorry 🙂 )

  99. Looking at what Boston recorded and Eric’s tweet for biggest snowfalls prior to Christmas for Boston it now ranks number 3.

  100. Having a storm produce over 40″ of snow is rare enough. Have it produce 40″ or more across 4 DIFFERENT STATES is unheard of!

    NWS Eastern Region
    @NWSEastern
    4h

    Snowfall reports received as of 1 pm. Top amounts by state thus far:

    NY-Newark Valley 44″
    VT-Ludlow 44″
    PA-Alba 43.3″
    NH-Sanbornton 40″
    ME-Acton 25.7″
    MA-Lanesborough 23″
    CT-New Milford 16.5″
    RI-Chepachet 12.5″
    NJ-Stockholm 12″
    MD-Sabillasville 12″
    WV-Hambleton 12″
    VA-Basye 11.5″

    https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/1339639102120058883?s=20

  105. I could catch up on sleep tonight and then starting looking at the early next week potential tomorrow.

    1. Very possibly, but we have a looooong way to go. Maybe one will rival it in March on the way to verifying the risky part of my winter forecast. 😉

    2. It may be hard to get another storm this season that drops double digit snows over such a wide area of the Northeast but I think we will see another storm or two this season that drops higher snow totals than this over at least parts of SNE.

  107. Good question
    Based on all the long range forecasts for this winter I would say yes. I hope I am wrong. I am just happy I got one storm to produce a foot of snow.

      1. Looking interesting, BUT, the main action seems to occur too late and too far off shore. There is time. Let’s give it a good watch, perhaps we can kick it into gear.

        This one would be deepening, that’s for sure and likely capable of dynamic cooling if we can get into any of the heavier precipitation.

  109. I was finally able to get outside without anyone around.
    Sadly, I didn’t get out there until basically 8 hours after any meaningful snow ended. Thus 8 hours for compaction, sublimation in the cold dry air and snow blowing around.
    Still managed to measure 12 inches on the level. I assume we
    got 13-15 inches, so let’s call it an even 14. 🙂

          1. So it’s going all night ?? I’ll keep an eye on it during commercial but if definitely was not coming down hard . Driveway was plowed 3 times with shoveling ( heavy stuff )

          1. Wow that’s cool I’m home for 3 more weeks so all good here . I want to see another where the plows come out .

        1. Are you more on the Weymouth side of Hingham or closer to Hull/Cohasset?
          If closer to Hull/Cohasset, then you may have a few flakes already. 🙂

  116. My daughter’s team was registered to play in a softball tournament at the Adirondack Dome in Queensbury NY (just south of Lake George) in mid February. Just got word that is in jeopardy as the roof of the dome just collapsed under the weight of the snow. Queensbury reported 33″.

      1. Not sure if the coach will try to sign them up somewhere else or not. There are not a lot of options out there right now with COVID and being it’s winter. They are scheduled for another dome tournament in Danbury in March. These are really just practice for the regular tournament season with starts in May and is basically every weekend until early August. I’ll be softballed out in no time so I won’t be heartbroken if that weekend frees up and we can make a ski day out of it instead!

    3. Wow! When you were talking about roof collapses it brings back memories of what we went through in 2011 when we saw a lot of roof collapses during that snow blitz stretch we had.

      1. JJ rhe roof collapsed at the indoor where my daughter has her horse years before. When she was riding there, the supports bowed during some of the early 1990s storms. We were assured could not possibly collapse. Fortunately no one was in it when it did

  117. With 13.1 inches 4th largest December snowfall on record for Boston according to a tweet I just read from Eric.

    1. Same here, light snow falling.

      We need to make up for those 3-4 hrs of mix with no accumulation. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  119. After having a wind at 360 this evening, the harbor buoy now has a wind of 020, so, that´s probably why the ocean effect is increasing a bit.

    Temp is up slightly at the buoy too, to 33F.

    Can get strange temps along the most immediate coastline on south shore when the ocean is 47F. So, who knows, this might go back to mix rain/snow here but may give SSK a new 1-2 overnight.

  121. So the long-eyed period of December 16-17 ended up producing quite the event for us, even more remarkable than any of us could have imagined – not for most of us, just a nice December snowstorm (mess storm for some), but that snow band to our north and west – I know I sound like a busted record but just fascinating.

    So now our attention turns to the upcoming 3 “windows of opportunity”, December 20, December 22, & Christmas Eve / Christmas Day. At this point I am most intrigued by the middle one. Keeping in mind the models inability to really peg stuff more than a couple days out, if that, the pattern leading up to it is one that makes me take notice. While I’m pretty sure our Sunday “event” won’t be much of an event, probably just light snow & rain (depending on location), the threat for next Tuesday, assuming that timing holds, has quite a bit of potential in the atmosphere to work with. This eventual play-out of this will probably have an impact on the third possible event, which is probably not being properly handled by medium range guidance at this time. So, to summarize, there is a whole lot to keep an eye on through Christmas….

    1. Yes!!!Thank you! I’m excited for more snow.

      I haven’t been looking forward to snowstorms the last couple of winters but with everything going on in this country these storms have been taking my mind off of things! Keep it up!

  123. Eric is eyeing Christmas Eve. According to him if the storm goes west (rain), if to our south (snow/mix). Either way, next week will be somewhat active.

      1. I’m not so sure I agree with “very quiet”. We may be eyeing the evolution of a pretty potent ocean storm “too close for comfort” Monday night & Tuesday.

    2. Eric was very vague about that because he knows that the current scenario on guidance may not even be close to correct.

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