Sunday December 20 2020 Forecast (7:22AM)

69 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 20-24)

A weak area of low pressure passes through the region during today with lots of clouds and some rain and snow shower activity, rain showers favoring Cape Cod & coastal areas with snow showers favoring inland spots. Other than the risk of brief coatings of snow, this will have very little impact. Another low pressure area will develop on an offshore frontal boundary on Monday but should scoot just southeast and east of New England, a fairly close shave though, with some cloudiness and even a chance of a period of rain on Cape Cod. Meanwhile, another area of energy will be diving through the Great Lakes and while not able to catch up to the offshore storm in time to give it a shot of energy, it should bring some mix/snow shower activity to our area on Tuesday. I’m still hopeful that we’ll have just enough clear sky between these systems to be able to view the great conjunction of Jupiter & Saturn in the southwestern sky at dusk Monday. When we get to midweek, high pressure to the west brings fair and cold weather Wednesday, then slides offshore with moderation on Thursday, Christmas Eve. The next system to the west likely holds off so that dry weather will also be expected for Santa’s visit later Thursday night…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers of rain and snow around mainly afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy early, then clearing. Lows 21-28. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Early and late sun, a period of cloudiness between which may include brief rain on Cape Cod and Nantucket. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds return west to east. Lows 23-30. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely, except rain or snow showers South Coast. Highs 34-41. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 25-29)

A frontal boundary with a couple low pressure areas on it will bring unsettled weather to the region for Christmas Day, December 25, but the exact evolution and behavior of this system is somewhat in question. Current thinking is a brief shot of mild air and rather short-lived period of rain showers for the morning, followed by a sharp temperature drop with a shifting wind and a chance of snow showers. Fair, chilly weather expected for December 26-28 and then a risk of a wintry weather threat to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 3)

Low confidence forecast but current idea is for fair and tranquil weather for the last couple days of 2020 before a quick-moving system brings some unsettled weather to greet 2021, followed by a shot of colder, dry weather.

69 thoughts on “Sunday December 20 2020 Forecast (7:22AM)”

    1. Very interesting, but their ranking of the blizzard of ’78’ is LAUGHABLE, rendering the whole damn thing useless imho.
      They ranked the jan 21st storm of 78 higher than the blizzard.
      that’s NUTS!!! NUTS!!!

  2. So here is my idea on the evolution of the system that some of touted as causing a 60 degree Christmas with heavy rainfall…

    We won’t have any high pressure north so we probably will “warm up” somewhat. But Christmas Eve the system is still significantly to the west of here and we’re under high pressure’s influence, so that will be a dry period with just some temperature moderation. When the parent low does travel west of New England it will still be quite some distance away. Models like the GFS to some extent and the ECMWF to an even greater extent I feel are giving far too much weight to southern energy and keeping it phased in with energy to the north and causing a stronger low to form, further south, but still to pass west of here, which would slow the system down and create a longer-lasting rain event, IF the solution was correct. I’m not really buying it. Now, fully aware that the NAM is not going to always perform optimally outside 48 or 60 hours, I do side with its early idea of this energy being separated to some degree and the southern energy becoming buried and left behind while the northern energy remains dominant and progressive, while still the end result being a “rain event” it’s a much shorter-duration, progressive band of rain showers that may end up being of 6 hours or less duration. The “warm up” will probably be more like 40s to 50-ish early Christmas morning before cold air would rush back in upon departure of the rain shower band, with even a few snow showers possibly following that up during Christmas Day itself. Yes that is more detail than I wanted to put into my posted forecast above for something that’s still a full 5 days away, but this is how I envisioning this play out in more detail if my forecast is indeed correct.

    1. Thanks TK!

      The tv/radio mets I heard this morning had different possible forecasts for Christmas Eve/Day.

      Jacob (Ch. 4) – Near 60 (58F) with heavy rain Christmas Eve and Day followed by clearing & colder to follow.

      Kelly Ann (Ch. 5) – Near 50 (52F) with heavy rain Christmas Day then snow possible at night.

      Accuweather.com (WBZ radio) – Snow event possible Christmas Day. More details later.

    1. Well nobody’s stoppin’ ya! 😉

      I saw somebody walking ’round in shorts on one of our 30-degree days recently. To each their own!

    2. I see a number of guys nowadays wearing shorts in winter regardless of the temps or how much snow is on the ground. No women though as of yet.

      I myself wear long pants with extra layers inside them. In fact, I don’t wear shorts all that often in summer.

  4. I’m going to venture to guess the “rain showers” with lows in the middle 20s for Friday night on the zone forecast is a typo…

  5. Thank you, TK.

    Rudolph is ready for anything this year. His bright red nose will help him wherever he goes. Plus, this year he’s bringing a large bottle of hoof sanitizer with him, and he’s promised to distance with all the other reindeer as well as Santa.

    1. But his bright red nose will have to be “masked up” this year, especially with him leading the way. 😉

      Have yourself A Covid Christmas!

  6. TK – I believe the current/updated Logan total snowfall to date (17.3”) is incorrect.

    4.3” ( October event)
    0.3” ( early December “fizzle”)
    13.1” ( 12/16-17)

    This “should” add up to 17.7” to date.

    It seems that Logan has now discounted the 0.3” and changed the recent event to 13.0”.

    TK – Can you verify this at your convenience? Thanks. 🙂

  8. Thanks TK! And thanks for the Joe D blog also.

    I also agree with your thoughts for 12/24-12/25. IMO this is going to play out a lot different than a lot of the earlier model runs showed, and I think we’re starting to see some corrections now. It’s a “warm” storm in the sense that we’re on the east side of it, and we may get up into the 50s for 12-18 hours or so. But this isn’t the sort of “torch” pattern we’ve seen a couple times around this time of year recently, nor do I think this storm is going to be very impactful at all in terms of wind or heavy rains.

    The pattern still looks interesting beyond 12/25 also. I’m waiting for that classic La Nina look to show up. You get occasional flashes of it, for instance the latest 6z deterministic GFS is on that track. But I’m not seeing nearly enough in the ensemble data to suggest we’re on the verge of a major flip, and the teleconnections are more supportive of continued cool and stormy weather as opposed to warmer and drier. This isn’t wholly unexpected in reference to the winter outlook (with TK and I having similar thoughts for DJF). And it’s way too early to “throw out” the January forecast, but I’d like to start seeing some signs in the next 7-10 days that we’re actually going to trend in that direction.

    1. I completely agree with you on the January thing. It may be more of a gradual transition than anything.

  9. The snow lovers like me won’t mind if the rest of the winter forecasts bust as long there are a couple more good snow producers along the way.
    Janice Huff a Meteorologist at WNBC in NY had her winter forecast bust already when she said this winter for NYC was going to be just like last winter. Well NYC has 10.5 inches of snow from the storm last week which is more than the 4.8 all of last winter.

    1. I still think we are going to luck out here, Vicki. 🙂 We may be in one of the only places in the Northeast that sees it. Still need a bit of a miracle, but I believe in those.

        1. That’s why I really would rather that storm miss us. It’d be marginal temps for snow anyway, but I’d give up a “blizzid” to see that conjunction with my own eyes on the night of the solstice. This is truly once in a life time.

      2. Fingers crossed. I think the world could use a positive sign even if it isn’t seen as the Christmas star.

  14. Is the 12z GFS operational ever progressive. It still has too much rain, but it whips the cold front offshore around the time Santa comes through and Christmas Day is cold & windy with snow showers around. I wonder if this thing doesn’t end up as a 2 hour period of showers sometime in the middle of the night………. Long way to go to fine-tune it.

  16. Four year old Rilyn Mac who clearly doesn’t have an ounce of fear. When quarantining, it is nice to have a sledding hill in your backyard. I am so proud of these kiddos for making the best of being separated from friends for nine months. They have found positives at every turn.

    https://imgur.com/a/NNPprty

  17. Mood snow is the perfect way to describe it JJ.
    Looks like the type of snow you would see in most movies through the windows.

  18. Thanks TK.

    Really snowing at a decent clip here in Coventry CT. Everything that has been cleared of snow is covered again. Beautiful scene out there!

    3. As I said yesterday last weeks storm imagine if that’s the biggest storm we see all winter , I would not be surprised.

  22. I am finding the NWS new Radar system to stink at loading and honestly not liking it. With that said nice burst of snow here in Billerica.

    1. Brutal. Could be basically described as unusable. Nice light snow today. Great holiday feel with fire going and tree lit. 1” so far.

      1. Nice. It’s RAINING here in JP !@&#*(&(!@*&#(*!^@(#*&!(*@&# Although, I was just taking some trash out and it feels like there may be some mix.

          1. Maybe the precip in our area needs to come down a bit harder to become snow. The dewpoints are technically below freezing.

            29F dp at Logan

  23. The Patriots will finish either at 7-9 or 6-10. If it’s the former it certainly won’t be vs. the Bills.

    What a crappy season. No doubt TB-12 is laughing himself sick.

    1. I did not have much hope for this season at the start, but I see potential for next year. They are a Good TE, Good down the field receiver that can run good crisp routes away from being competitive. Hope they grab a Receiver, TE, QB and a run stuffing D-Lineman that can play the pass as well. Pats have the 3rd highest amount of money available compared to all other teams and many teams will be wanting to ship people to ease cap space. Patriots will have good amount of draft ability. We will be signers while others are shipping. But one thing I would like to see is Harry gone and not a patriots he has been an extreme disappointment.

  25. Philip yes, I believe those #’s are correct from what I can find…

    What a gorgeous snowy afternoon this turned into in my area. I was out walking in the woods for much of it………….. another batch of photos and videos it’ll take me weeks to finish posting on my various places. 😉

    1. Same here! We actually pulled an inch out of the system. Picturesque afternoon, especially in the holiday season.

      Encouraged by the colder and more progressive GFS for Xmas. We could very well still end up with a white xmas (both on the ground and in the air)

      Also looks like we have a legitimate threat on the 29th which is showing up on all the models at this point.

  27. Thanks, TK…

    32.5 currently. The sensor to my thermometer is 6-feet up on my deck. I wonder if the temp at the surface and on the roads aren’t a tick under freezing. There is a SWS out for tricky travel in the morning for black ice and freezing fog.

  28. Well that was an interesting 18z GFS run. Short of that brief torch and ribbon of showers on Christmas Eve, a cold and wintery look with the storm track to our southeast and coastal winter storm threats around the 29th and 1st.

    This particular run blows up the ocean storm on the 29th and basically stalls it to our south as a block forms to our north with double barreled high pressure.

    Not a very La Nina-esque run 🙂

    1. It’s going to be a slower transition, and we may stay active during that transition as well. Not necessarily a lot of snow, but an active pattern.

      1. I’m becoming increasingly skeptical that the flip to a full scale textbook La Niña this winter is going to happen. Already signs of another PV split coming as we start January. Warm North Pacific waters and ridging have been persistent and helped drive colder air further east and south in US. The cold air supply is good with deep snowpack in Canada and Siberia, unlike last year. And we actually some blocking to our north. Not to mention La Niña is projected to only get weaker as the winter moves along.

        Not saying we won’t have milder/snowless interludes. I’m sure we will. But wondering if they won’t be more transient rather than just dominating the next few months.

        I do think a lot of the snowless winter forecasts are going to bust. Eric F’s is already looking particularly bad – he had Boston at 15-30” for the winter and they are already at 17”. And winter hasn’t even officially started yet!

  29. Was out and about here in Andover late this afternoon, was really messy and slick, maybe an inch and half but roads were a mess. Saw a number of cars off the road in snow banks, one into a tree, good time to stay home. My son was working at La Fina, had a hard time getting home as well.

  30. Almost 3” at my house in Brookline nh. Very light fluffy snow. Plows were out. Loves being out side in it. Played with the dog for about 45 mins with the xmass light ls on. Love this time of year.

  33. My Monday weather update will be a little bit late because I am currently at the seacoast in New Hampshire. 🙂

Comments are closed.