Wednesday December 23 2020 Forecast (9:33AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 23-27)

Don’t look now, but we’ve already gained 10 seconds of daylight back! You won’t really notice it for a week or 2, but the days are indeed getting longer, post-solstice. The rate of increase is very slow at first, but will pick up the pace as we head through the winter. Speaking of winter, it will feel like it today as high pressure brings dry and seasonably cold weather to our region. You’ll notice some high cloudiness starting to increase as the day goes on. This is a signal of the approach of a warmer air mass. The warmer air, being less dense than colder air, rides up and over it at first, creating the high clouds. Eventually that warmer air mass will arrive at the surface in a gradual way on Thursday, which will feature lots of clouds but some intervals of sun. I expect the daylight hours to be rain-free. As we get deeper into Christmas Eve, our rain shower chance will go up, but it looks like most of the rainfall will hold off until the pre-dawn hours of Christmas morning for arrival, and a ribbon of moderate to heavy rain showers will traverse the region during the morning, exiting west to east by midday and afternoon. During the wet weather time will be the strongest winds, from the south, 15-30 MPH with gusts in the 35-55 MPH range. A few gusts above that are possible in higher elevations, such as Blue Hill in Milton MA. After the main rain shower area exits, the wind, while still gusty, will have shifted to the west and dropped off somewhat during the remainder of Christmas Day, and a stray snow shower may wander into the region as a breakaway from a Great Lakes snow squalls. Canadian high pressure builds in for the weekend with cold and dry conditions.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Cloudy. Rain showers likely, mainly overnight. Temperatures rise to 48-55. Wind S 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, as high as 40-50 MPH especially in coastal areas and higher elevations, strongest toward dawn.

FRIDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Cloudy morning with rain showers, some heavy. Breaking clouds and rain showers ending early afternoon, then a risk of a snow shower late rin the day. Highs 50-57 early then temperatures fall through the 40s and into the 30s. Wind S 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Lows 18-25. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 28 – JANUARY 1)

Unsettled weather threat in the December 28-29 period, early indications are low pressure passing north of here with rain and snow showers. Fair and seasonably chilly weather returns to end the year, then the next storm threat looms for New Year’s Day.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 2-6)

Dry/chilly January 2-3, milder/unsettled January 4-5, colder/dry January 6.

77 thoughts on “Wednesday December 23 2020 Forecast (9:33AM)”

      1. According to the tv mets, 1-2”+ with some areas overachieving. That last word was used quite often during their morning broadcasts.

  5. In a DUH moment yesterday I commented on a warm Christmas I remembered. In the middle of the night (when of course I do my best thinking rather than sleeping 🙁 ), it occurred to me I has taken ten years off of my age. I knew I was around 16 but it wasn’t 1975. It would have been 1965 and sure enough that date is one of the warmest

    I also suspect it is the one Christmas vacation I remember in North Conway when there was just rain and no skiing

  6. Thanks, TK!

    Happy Christmas Eve Eve, everyone!

    Know that I need to take everything on a weather model with a grain of salt, the 12z HRRR has a 69-knot wind gust (79 mph) in the northeast corner of Connecticut at around 7 am on Christmas morning.

    I hope that power line crews aren’t called away from their families on Christmas morning, but that might be the case.

    2. Wait…..that’s near my area. Ohhhhh my poor manger. What is with the many wind storms.

      Happy Christmas Eve Eve or as Mac always said happy Christmas Adam

  7. Thanks TK
    In CT Eversource is saying there ready to respond. I hope so and this is not a repeat of what happened with tropical storm Isias where the response was not great.

  8. 12z GFS features Groundhog day, ie. the same exact storm for New Years Eve as for Christmas Eve, maybe a slight bit weaker than Christmas Day event.

  9. It was on this day 26 years ago of a wild overnight wind storm. There was an 88-mph wind gust in Walpole and an unspeakable tragedy in North Attleboro where seven souls perished in a horrible house fire. It was young family, five of whom were children.

  10. I suspect we will see no major snow the rest of this year is that correct as it is looking that way . Tk did your January outlook have a mostly quiet January.

    2. I expect an active January as we transition toward SE ridge dominance. But active does not necessarily mean “a lot of snow” We’ll have to look case-by-case.

        1. And sometimes they do.
          SE ridge, milder than average stretches can and have both been part of winters with above normal snowfall here too. Weather is just not that simple.

    3. It sure looks like we can kiss any snow events good-bye for the rest of this year.

      TK did say less than average snow for January, but we shall see.

        1. Yeah right and I’m Santa Claus getting ready for my deliveries tomorrow night. 🙂 🙂 🙂

          I said the rest of the year, which is 12/23-12/31. I did not say the rest of the Winter. 🙂

          I’d be shocked if it snowed again this year.

          1. I’m actually talking about the rest of the calendar year. We can’t dismiss the threat early next week.

            As I’ve stated, ALL the models were 500 miles off on a storm track just 4 days before it arrived earlier this month. The model performance hasn’t really changed overall, even if they have done a little better in general with this upcoming event.

            We simply cannot kiss the chance goodbye yet.

    1. just saying that just because that outcome is on the map this morning, doesn’t mean it will verify. 🙂 🙂 Here’s hoping.

  14. If I had played the Jackie Layer drinking game on today’s noon news, I’d have been sloshed.

    For those who don’t remember what that is, you take a sip every time she says the phrase “we’re tracking” in a weather-cast. Today, she set a record (from the ones I’ve seen) with 17 “we’re tracking” in 2 1/2 minutes. 😉

      1. Oh I don’t mind at all how many times they say whatever. But she says it so often you cannot help but notice it, so one day I was talking to somebody when she was on and I noted how frequently she said the phrase and came up with the “Jackie Layer drinking game” concept. 😉

    2. We used to have a similar game for a well known former weather anchor in the Atlanta market on how many times they would say “nobody saw this coming” the day of or day after a blown forecast

      Hint: In this person’s particular case usually everybody else did see it coming.

  17. Thanks TK.

    The teleconnections look good down the road.

    NAO and AO both projected to tank as we head towards/beyond January 1 and the PNA is projected to be positive. These are all positive indicators if we are looking for a more wintery pattern to return beyond these next couple cutters…

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

    I also question, at 9 days lead time, that the New Years system cuts that badly, especially with these teleconnections in place. The colder CMC type solution, with some coastal redevelopment, could be plausible with some blocking in place. Long ways off.

    Regardless what happens with that system, I think we get some more chances after the 1st.

  21. Going to be interesting to see what the wind does with this system tomorrow night and Friday. I think it’s prudent to have the High Wind Warnings up. You’re talking about basically record strong winds in the 850-925mb layer, and with that much wind up there you can’t really take a chance on under-warning. However, it would not surprise me if the event mostly under-performs in terms of wind. More and more it looks like we’ll have a fairly stout inversion in place in the lowest levels which will be tough to bust through, though any convection could do it. It’ll be a pretty thin margin between gusts to 45mph (run of the mill) and gusts to 75mph (major tree damage and power outage event) though.

    Credit to the models as well… this thing never trended towards the weaker/more progressive solution that seemed like it might make more sense. It’s gonna a warm, windy soaker.

      1. Working during the day tomorrow, but lucky enough to be off for Christmas day. Actually planning to make the drive home to MA tomorrow evening to spend a couple days with (immediate) family.

        It’ll be a trying couple of days for a lot of folks though. NWS certainly but private/broadcast as well. Really unfortunate timing. Not to mention utility workers, emergency managers, and plenty of others who’ve had their holiday plans thrown out the window with this storm.

        2. WxWatcher I am sending wishes to you and your family for a very very special Christmas.

          You are so kind to mention utility workers. I’m hearing all time off was cancelled. Indeed the timing is just awful

    3. Then shalt thou count to three, no more–no less. Three shall be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, neither count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out.

  23. Philip, I don’t know what you did with the extra 10 seconds of sunlight, but, I hope you used a sunscreen of SPF 50+ for those extra strong rays! 🙂

  24. Thank you everyone! I know some folks get away from their computers & phones for holidays so if you are one of them thank you for being part of my blog!

    WHW turns 10 years old on December 26. 🙂

    WxW thank you for your insight. I hope your shift goes well and you can safely get up to visit your family.

      1. TK thank you for letting us be a part of your blog . Merry Christmas to all. I truly hope everyone stays healthy

        1. When I was a little boy I would listen to the NWS on a scanner 162.550 MHz to be exact. I would dream of what it would be like to either work as a meteorologist or talk weather with one. Well I never became a meteorologist, but thanks to TK and this blog I have the opportunity to do this on daily basis. I am truly grateful to be able to discuss weather with actual meteorologists and also weather fanatics like myself. TK congratulations on your upcoming 10 year anniversary, 8 of those of which I was a lurker and 2 Of which I have participated in. THANK YOU!!

    4. From the start…sometime off, mostly on …..that is what families do so …..

      thank you for creating a WHW family..

  27. Cant believe it has been 10 years already…time flies! Thanks TK for the great blog and all the hard work you put into it everyday.

    Hope you and everyone here has a healthy and happy holiday season!

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