Friday December 25 2020 Forecast (2:59AM)

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Merry Christmas to all who are celebrating it today!

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 25-29)

A warm wind & rain for Christmas Morning 2020. We have had a variety of weather on Christmas Day over the years & decades – nothing unusual since we live in a part of the world that sees great variety. Hopefully the power outage issue will be as minimal as possible. Look for poor drainage and small stream flooding this morning due to the heavy rainfall, so be aware of that if traveling. As the rain gradually ends later today and wind backs off, we can be thankful that drying should take place for a number of hours before the temperatures drop below freezing, so we will avoid a flash freeze, but not necessarily some icy areas that will form eventually with any standing water and wet, untreated surfaces, so be aware of that later this evening and into Saturday morning. In addition, the advection of cold air from Canada via the Great Lakes will carry with it some remnant snow showers from lake-effect snows, and we may see some flakes flying at times tonight and Saturday, but not to worry – it won’t be an accumulation snow event. A few rivers may get near flood stage on Saturday, but should, for the most part, be able to handle the run off from rain and melting snow. Dry and cold weather is expected for Sunday as high pressure dominates. Early next week, our next unsettled weather threat times out for later Monday, but looks fairly benign, just a period of rain and possible snow showers as low pressure tracks north of the region. Behind it will come a shot of colder air with dry weather for Tuesday.

TODAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Overcast with widespread rain showers, some heavy, and a chance of thunder, tapering off from west to east by late day. Areas of fog early. Highs 55-62 early, then cooling to the 40s during the day. Wind S 15-30 MPH, gusts as high as 45-60 MPH, strongest in exposed areas, shifting to W and diminishing during the day.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain and/or snow showers late-day. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with a rain or snow shower. Clearing overnight. Lows 26-31. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 3)

Dry and seasonably chilly December 30 as high pressure dominates. Similar to this week, high pressure moves offshore for New Year’s Eve with moderating temperatures as low pressure heads for the St. Lawrence Valley, passing northwest of New England, bringing a chance of rain showers for the first day of 2021, followed by drier and colder weather January 2-3.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 4-8)

Milder but unsettled weather expected January 4-5, details dependent on the track of low pressure moving through the Northeast. Drier/colder January 6-7 then the next chance of unsettled weather comes at the end of the period.

79 thoughts on “Friday December 25 2020 Forecast (2:59AM)”

    1. Yes, heading out of December & into January the expectation has been for that kind of a storm track to be more dominant.

  8. Merry Christmas

    1.94 here up from 1.64 in about 20 minutes and still climbing

    We have an armada of luminaries sailing down the street

  16. Thanks TK, Merry Christmas all!!

    Heard the wind/rain once in the 2-3AM hour in Wrentham, and then had the line go through around 8 although the wind really wasn’t bad with that. Almost calm now with steady rain continuing. No snow on the ground here. Not exactly a Hallmark scene but no complaints here 🙂

  17. I think we have escaped the worst of the wind. Only gusting to 29 at the airport.

    1.05 inch here with rain continuing to fall.

  18. Thanks TK for your accurate/differentiated forecast all week, we kept our outdoor Christmas Eve plans unchanged and it was perfect!!!

  20. Pretty much an under-achiever both with wind & rain for most areas. Can’t say I’m surprised. 😉

    And when I say under-achiever, I’m not implying bad forecasts. The wind gusts were in the expected range for many areas, but in many areas the maximum potential was not reached. That’s GOOD! Nevertheless there are still several reports of 60+ MPH wind gusts.

    1. Yep, basically confirmed my suspicions on the wind. Windy, but pretty run of the mill. Was a little more intense for the mid-Atlantic, but that’s not surprising given it was a little warmer there. There’s a reason southerly high wind events are rare 🙂

  21. My forecast high for Boston was 56. I’m off by 2 (so far) with 58 being their actual. If it sneaked up to 59 between hours it will be tied for the 4th warmest Christmas Day with 2014, 1982, and 1915. If 58 is their actual high, it will be tied for 5th warmest with 1986, 1965, and 1940. The 60-65 degree temps from 2015, 1964, 1888, and 1889 are safe, probably for a very long time, Boston having reached or exceed 60 only those 4 times in its recorded history on the 25th of December.

  22. Thank you TK!!
    2.15” in the rain bucket. Glad the wind underperformed, didn’t have to deal with no power on Christmas Day.
    Merry Christmas to all who celebrate on the WHW blog!!

  26. Merry Christmas WHW people!

    I woke around 3:30 am and threw up the sash to a breezy wind and rain and left it open the rest of the night. Nice to hear the rain though sad to see the snow disappear. My wife and I got two visits in to Great Brook Farm in Carlisle XC skiing. The second was at night on their lantern loop. It has been a satisfying outdoor week with those days and the Jupiter and Saturn event. Thank you for all who played out the background Info for others to plan!

  29. Merry Christmas to all! No white Christmas here. All gone last night. But happy to see the rain underperforming against the insane numbers being thrown out there. Additionally the highest amount of customers without power today seemed to peak at 5600 and is now down to 3300.

    1. Interesting. A little unfair as those cartoon drawings didn’t necessarily give a real representation of the cloud type.

      I only scored a lousy 83% in 1:07

      If they were photos of the clouds I would have scored 100% very quickly.

      1. Just a tad more RAIN to sit through. I think I will top
        the 2 inch mark when all is said and done. Sitting
        at 1.61 inches so far.

  32. Thank you, TK!

    It’s almost hard to imagine that we were in a serious drought just two months ago. I recall discussions on WHW in the early and even middle part of fall that began with “well, at least we managed to squeeze out 0.21 inch of rain.” How things have changed. Now, 1-2 inches of qpf is a once or twice a week phenomenon.

  33. 3 inches on the dot and still raining. As I drove to daughters I passed a house on the top of a hill with a huge lake in the yard. I drive by this house regularly and have never seen it pond. There were about a dozen mallards swimming in it

    SC…it is across the street from the soccer fields your kids okayed at in Uxbridge. How is the rain amount out your way SC

  34. I see a yellow and red blob. Maybe shift it East. I think we have enough. In the couple of minutes since my post above we are at 3.02

  35. Hi Vicki and Merry Christmas!
    I have 2.68” in the rain bucket as of now, with the back edge approaching , so I think that may be close to the final amount. I’m glad we will have some nicer weather tomorrow because I think my 10 year old will go nuts if he can’t get outside to try his outdoor gifts.

    1. Nice. I think I got a thin line early on that gave me most. I posted a pic of it somewhere here. Agree it will be lovely to go outside

    1. Had we been on the cold side of this we’d have had probably a moderate snowfall with much less moisture to be had.

    2. Thinking the same thing.

      There’s snow on the back side, but you have to pretty far northwest. Some of it lake effect (2-3 feet of snow in Watertown, NY).

      https://www.google.org/publicalerts/alert?aid=87ce7601be40f371&hl=en&gl=US&source=wweather

      Some light snow, but seasonably cold temperatures (Sudbury, Ontario).

      https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?on31#901522041237526692202012230503ws1272cwto

      But the record warmth and rainfall extends directly due north to Labrador City (exceedingly unusual to have rain in Labrador City in December; even when systems travel west of the region – and today’s high temperature in the 40s absolutely smashed the previous record set in Labrador City).

      https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Labrador+City+Newfoundland+and+Labrador+Canada?canonicalCityId=5515836b241308c256a9acfabb2aa199396db43069f5a47f2aab01114bb6ed55

  37. Hope everybody had a nice Christmas Day! For me, the season goes on through January 6. Still lots of music, holiday movies, rides around to see light displays, and turning on my lights right through then.

    Looking ahead a bit with the weather…
    Winding down this event tonight.
    Cold weekend, few snow showers Saturday, dry Sunday.
    Next week’s pattern looks very similar to this week. In fact we may have a similar set-up to this one for NYD.

    The MJO is not going to be where you want it if you like snow for quite a while. The AO tanking forecast is suspect. Something isn’t right there. NAO … eh. Marginal. Probably more neutral than anything.

    We may enter a 5 to 7 day period where the pattern becomes favorable for wintry weather right around January 10. But overall, the story for January is likely to be more & more SE ridge, but active here, on our way to a very quiet February.

    1. I have a gut feeling we won’t see any measurable snow fall around these parts for some time . This is just a hunch .

      1. Oh we will. I just don’t foresee a snowy pattern right now. Some areas may actually end up with measurable snowfall within 30 hours (before Saturday evening is over).

  38. GEFS 840 from 00z 24-DEC , even though it naturally flattens the flow out with time, shows a tendency for polar jet troughing in eastern Canada while we build a Southeast ridge. That leaves this area in a wicked fast flowing jet stream WSW to ENE. Active pattern, progressive, mild overall, brief cold shots, but somewhat above normal precipitation for the balance of January.

    1. Persistent SE ridge. It’s like a high pressure area sinks to our south and east every time.

      Last year the Charles River did not freeze over in Boston. Parts froze briefly, but it was the first winter I can recall in my lifetime that the river didn’t freeze over from the Boston side to the Cambridge side. Even in 2012 it froze over, albeit very briefly for about 2 days. I’m afraid this year we may not see sustained or even `real’ Arctic cold necessary to freeze the Charles, at least not in January which is the month most conducive to ice formation. After that ice formation becomes increasingly difficult. I’d be mighty disappointed. But, hey, it’s weather.

  40. TK if you’re up for a drive this weekend get your butt to pembroke. Lilah Lane has a street with lights at every house timed to an FM station – and nearby Ingham Way has an amazing display that they programmed to an FM station as well with different visuals for each song. (This is an old video on yt but you get this idea https://youtu.be/8_BnqIDcuxI )

      1. I don’t know unfortunately. Only lilah lane has a facebook page and I think they’ve indicated they should be around until new years (this is a youtube vid of what lilah lane is like https://youtu.be/3MFVRNtsqds ) — ingham doesn’t have a site that I know of.

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