Sunday December 27 2020 Forecast (8:34AM)

31 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 27-31)

High pressure provides us with bright but cold weather today, and as we come down the home stretch to the finish line of 2020 we’ll be seeing a few more changes in the weather. First, a broad but moisture-starved area of low pressure passes north of our area Monday, dragging its warm front through the region during the morning with lots of cloudiness, then its cold front through in the afternoon with perhaps a rain shower as milder air will have taken over. But quickly behind this comes another shot of cold air between the departing low via eastern Canada and approaching high pressure in the Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday with a gusty breeze. High pressure will settle over the region then slip to the south with fair and seasonably chilly weather Wednesday. By Thursday, weaker low pressure will travel eastward, passing north of this area but dragging a cold front through. This front may be accompanied by a few rain showers.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 34-41. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Partly sunny with a passing rain shower possible afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 26-31. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 34-41. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 1-5)

As high pressure builds over eastern Canada and another low travels in our direction from the southwest, what yesterday’s guidance was showing more as a set-up similar to the one we had on Christmas, it now has been leaning toward a little more complex scenario where high pressure to the north is strong enough to force the low’s track a little further south and keep colder air in the region for New Year’s Day. This could be a set-up for a more complex precipitation situation, something we’ll have to keep a close eye on during the next several days. Any precipitation exits by early January 2 followed by dry/colder weather for the January 2-3 weekend. Temperatures moderate with a minor disturbance bringing a chance of mix/rain showers January 4 and/or 5.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 6-10)

Best chances for unsettled weather from passing systems January 8 & 10. Evolution of pattern and storm track is a little uncertain at this time and we’ll be watching for some blocking to potentially set up before the end of this period which could shift the track of future storms more to the south.

31 thoughts on “Sunday December 27 2020 Forecast (8:34AM)”

  3. Thanks TK
    This why I don’t trust models that far out in the future. No mention of wintry precipitation yesterday and wake up this morning there is a chance at some later in the week.

    1. I think I might have heard someone say before, maybe a few times, that models, especially now, are not trustable beyond day 3, maybe 4, and sometimes not even that far out. 😉

  6. Thanks, TK.

    As my daughter reminded me several times during her visit “you don’t get cloudless days ever in London from late fall until early spring … and even sunny days are very few and far between [two or three times a month if you’re lucky] … it’s gray and gloomy practically every day.”

    It’s something I’ve not forgotten. Boston and SNE are MUCH sunnier than all of Northwestern Europe in 3 of 4 seasons (spring is the conspicuous exception). Winter sun may be the biggest surprise to most Europeans visiting New England this time of year. It’s actually quite frequent and can lift the spirits. I’m sure the pilgrims marveled at the sunny days in winter. The sun is also much stronger here because it’s closer to the equator than any place in Northwestern Europe.

    1. Interesting Joshua. Is the cloudiness due to remnants of our nor’easters and other storms that head out to sea from our end of the Atlantic Ocean?

    2. Joshua, I have been away from my devices a bit more than normal lately…a good thing I think…abs missed that your daughter was able to visit. I am beyond happy for you!

  7. Thanks TK.

    Quiet day on here without a ton to talk about, at least for now.

    Still looks a little less torchy for the New Years storm with some colder air potentially to work with for interior areas and especially CNE/NNE. 12z Euro has a decent icing event across eastern NY, the Berkshires, Litchfield County, and VT/NH.

    12z Euro accumulated freezing rain totals:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2020_12/image.png.725aea42acf61bb4fcb4439984c504c9.png

    Still a lot of model disagreement with this storm and we have a ways to go.

  8. And talking about model disagreement, the long range holds promise as we get beyond 10 days out if you look at the GEFS. The EPS however looks terrible.

    Given the models have been suck-tastic in the long range as TK reminds us, will just wait and see how things play out I guess. The -AO and -NAO still look good as we move into January which holds some promise, however the Pacific looks like crap. The firehose over those warm North Pacific waters into the NW US and Canada is not helping things. Not a lot of really cold air to play around with right now.

  10. Thanks, Vicki. Yes, I’m blessed that my daughter’s here. One year is a long time.

    Philip, to answer your question, the gray skies in the British Isles and also Northwestern Europe generally are due to the prevailing (south)westerly. As you alluded to, systems that are either nor-easters or go out to sea to our east often blow up into major North Atlantic storms in the fall and winter and affect Northern Europe in some way. But, even between the storms, the prevailing (south)westerly ushers in a maritime climate for the most part as the wind is coming from the Atlantic or North Sea.

    Boston’s impacted by the ocean, clearly, when there’s an easterly (and the islands are impacted, especially in spring, by the ocean when there’s a southerly or southwesterly). But, our prevailing wind comes from the west (southwest, northwest, or just west), and that’s a continental wind. With no great lakes to impact us – many cities near the great lakes are quite gray in winter, in spite of the prevailing westerly – we can have plenty of bright, sunny days in winter under a dome of high pressure.

    The latter is an important feature as we have plenty of moving domes of high pressure, regardless of the season. Sometimes they ridge to our south and east. Sometimes they’re to our north and east. Either way high pressure dominates our weather more than it does in Northwestern Europe. The exception in winter and summer is a stationary and very strong high pressure area called the Scandinavian high that produces a persistent easterly, continental wind. In winter that’s very cold. In summer that can be quite warm. The high serves as a very effective block to the Atlantic lows.

  11. Thanks TK.

    Not to jinx it, but despite some forecasts for individual events that have left plenty to be desired, and a lot of outside noise regarding the seasonal pattern, this winter is (so far and looking out the next week or two) turning out exactly the way it was supposed to. Get ready for a lot of Southeast ridge the next two months…

      1. Well we had a foot of snow a weekish ago and significant snow in October. Then again in November. I’d say we are doing well …Boston ..meh.

          1. Oops. You are right. I knew we had three but…. Sorry two in December. Three storms already. We still had some mounds on the ground from early December when the last storm arrived. I’d say we have done quite well.

    1. I feel like the Euro has performed better over the last 2+ storms. Hoping this GFS forecast doesn’t come true. That would not be good for that area.

  13. Isle of Wight (UK) recorded 106mph gusts from “Storm Bella.” See link below. The wrath of the Northern Atlantic. In my view, these Northern Atlantic storms – including some of our powerful winter storms – are as impressive as many hurricanes. The reason I say this is that hurricanes develop over warm waters. We expect them to gain in strength over warm water and lose it over cooler water. Well, these massive Northern Atlantic storms develop over the cool ocean and don’t lose their power until they hit the European continent.

    https://www.islandecho.co.uk/storm-bella-brings-106mph-winds-to-the-isle-of-wight/

    1. The best example of the difference between warm core & cold core cyclones.

      They are in the storm highway .. sometimes the fast lane.

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