Monday December 28 2020 Forecast (7:34AM)

39 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 28 – JANUARY 1)

The next-to-next-to-next-to-last day of 2020 (today) will be a mild one by late December standards as low pressure tracks east northeastward down the St. Lawrence Valley and a warm front goes by this morning followed by a late-day cold frontal passage. This moisture-starved system will bring only the threat of a rain shower ahead of or along its cold front and despite dominant cloudiness much of the day, we may see some clearing late today. The next-to-next-to-last day of 2020 (Tuesday) will feature a cold wind but dry weather with sun & a few clouds as we’ll be between departing low pressure in eastern Canada and approaching Canadian high pressure. The next-to-last day of 2020 (Wednesday) will be cold but tranquil as high pressure builds over the region, though some high cloudiness will show up. The last day of 2020 (Thursday a.k.a. New Year’s Eve), much like today, will feature lots of clouds and milder air ahead of yet another low pressure area taking a similar track north of our area, and there may be a few rain showers during the day, although these should exit by evening for any limited outdoor festivities taking place that night, just as colder air arrives. The first day of 2021 holds the most complex outlook of this 5-day period, as cold high pressure will have built into eastern Canada while another low pressure area approaches New England from the southwest. Cold air will be stubborn, at least at the surface, as the moisture from this system arrives during the day – a set-up for potential icing conditions and maybe some frozen precipitation, before rain becomes dominant, but all of this will depend on the depth of the cold air and how difficult it is to dislodge. Obviously, fine-tuning will be necessary as this event draws closer.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy through early afternoon then partial sun by late day. Chance of passing rain showers, especially during the afternoon hours. Highs 43-50. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 26-31. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun & passing clouds. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Sun & high clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH evening, diminishing overnight.

FRIDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Overcast. Rain arriving from southwest to northeast, may begin as freezing rain and/or sleet in some locations. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 2-6)

Low pressure exits during January 2 which starts wet then ends dry & colder. High pressure builds in with dry and cold weather for January 3. Low pressure may pass close to or south of the region with an unsettled weather threat January 4 with the next system likely to be one passing north of the region with milder air and rain showers by January 6, but this being quite a few days away it’s not a high confidence outlook.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 7-11)

Much of this period looks quiet other than a chance of some unsettled weather about January 8. The overall pattern may be shifting to more of a blocking set-up here though which has some potential implications for mid January.

39 thoughts on “Monday December 28 2020 Forecast (7:34AM)”

  4. Thanks TK! Agree with basically everything in your forecast and your general read on the pattern right now. For the late week threat, I do see some ice threat especially well in the interior, but agree with your assessment that rain will be predominant for most, especially in SNE.

  5. Coming off the long weekend, Wall Street is pricing in a warm stretch of weather the next few weeks for most of the US. Natural gas futures, which are highly sensitive to temperatures, are plummeting this morning on the outlook, down about 9% at last check (which would be the equivalent of ~2700 Dow points for those who follow the markets). Basically, a lot of people got caught “offsides” last week with the rumors of cold weather to come, and the realization that the cold isn’t coming is driving the heavy selling this morning. Always very insightful to watch these sort of moves and the reasons behind them…

    https://www.naturalgasintel.com/january-temperatures-looking-solidly-warm-as-natural-gas-futures-plummet/

  6. Re: Days 11-15+

    Interesting that blocking may return just in time for our annual MLK weekend snow/mix/rain hijinx…coincidence or not. 😉

    Of course I will acknowledge that MLK weekends have also featured tranquil weather as well. 🙂

      1. Well, we can always blame the October snow…and the fact that it’s the year 2020! Even moreso the latter. 🙂

      1. It doesn’t always trend warm. It’s actually been the first to trend colder several times this season.

        1. Yeah, Snow hasn’t had a career for a few decades since his hit song “Informer”, I don’t think he’ll try for a resurgence. LOL

  8. Glad I went against the majority to forecast the later PM sun today instead of just leaving it overcast. Sun everywhere now ‘cept Cape Cod / South Coast which will have it shortly for a brief time before sunset.

        1. It’s REALLY nice out there. There’s still another boundary to come thru later which will introduce the cold air tonight through Wednesday before we have that conglomeration of stuff to figure out for NYE & NYD.

                1. Well, ya know, it’s the Canadian, so it likes cold. 😉

                  Actually we do have to pay attention as guidance often (especially lately) under-forecasts Canadian highs & cold.

  9. Regarding the New Year’s Day event, I see it now has a considerably slower timing with rain holding off until evening lasting through Saturday midday.

    It appears that New Year’s Day won’t come close mirroring Christmas Day as the first day of 2021 will be mostly dry.

    TK – Will nighttime temps be quite mild though?

    1. Yes we’ll be having milder air moving in during the event, but there’s still some fine-tuning to do regarding timing & details. A trend to later today does not necessarily mean that timing is correct.

  10. Just here for the first time. It was cut and color day in my salon….aka my livingroom with my daughter doing the work while we watched leave it to beaver.

    Thank you, TK.

  11. will be leaving January 2 with a flight at 8am. Tk what are your thoughts. Should I be worried about delays or cancellations to my flight out of Logan?

    Meanwhile if people are wondering the forecast for my apartment on St. Thomas for this weekend Mostly sunny, highs in the mid 70s with lows in the mid to high 60s. I rather the warmer weather if we are not getting cold and snow.

  12. So we now need to unplug ALL outside light timers if it is to rain. Otherwise the GFI blows and our verizon is on same line. Can you see me rolling my eyes? I see an electrician in our covid safe future

    Looking as if we won’t have our outside lights lit New Year’s Eve either

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