Tuesday December 29 2020 Forecast (7:32AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)

High pressure builds into the region today, which will be breezy, cold, & dry. High pressure crests over the region Wednesday with cold, tranquil weather, but you’ll notice an increase in high cloudiness ahead of a warm front, which will quietly move through the region during the evening hours as a lead low pressure area tracks north of the region. This low will drag a cold front through here Thursday morning with cloudiness and a rain shower risk, as a shot of milder air will have moved in behind the warm front and ahead of the cold front. The entire evolution of the New Year’s Eve & New Year’s Day set-up looks different on recent guidance than it did on previous guidance, which was showing a set-up very similar to that of last week (Christmas Eve / Christmas Day). But we know guidance has been struggling, but seems to have resolved at least to the idea of the weaker low passing north late Wednesday & early Thursday, high pressure building across eastern Canada to bring some colder air back in for New Year’s Eve, and then low pressure from the southwest making a run at our area later Friday into Saturday. The details of this particular low pressure area are still not worked out, but the general idea is that the onset of precipitation sometime Friday afternoon or evening may be in the form of snow/sleet & freezing rain for some areas, especially away from the coast, before rain takes over, possibly leaving some pockets of freezing rain a bit longer over interior valleys, before tapering off at some point Saturday, depending on details of frontal boundaries and low pressure track. More fine-tuning needed there which will take place as we get closer to this event.

TODAY: Sun & passing clouds. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Sun & high clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 43-50, occurring in the morning. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY NIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH evening, diminishing overnight.

FRIDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Clouding over. Snow and/or sleet & rain and/or freezing rain arriving from southwest to northeast by the end of the day. Highs 30-38. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast with rain except pockets of freezing rain possible interior valley locations evening. Temperatures steady 30-38 evening, rising to 38-45 overnight. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH, becoming variable.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with areas of fog and a chance of rain in the morning. Breaking clouds in the afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming W.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 3-7)

High pressure noses in with cold/dry weather January 3. We’ll have to watch for low pressure passing south of the region January 4 which is handled very differently by various guidance, but right now my leaning is that it stays far enough south to bring only a minor threat of snow/mix/rain to the South Coast. High pressure brings dry/chilly weather January 5. Weak system may bring clouds and a minor precipitation threat about January 6 before fair weather returns at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 8-12)

Best chances for unsettled weather come about January 8 & 12, but there is a lot of uncertainty with pattern evolution at this time. Will monitor for potential blocking. Not expecting guidance to handle pattern recognition very well for a while.

33 thoughts on “Tuesday December 29 2020 Forecast (7:32AM)”

  6. Thanks TK
    Eric Fisher with a question on twitter. I am curious to hear your responses.
    What was your most memorable New England weather event of 2020? Overall I feel it was a pretty benign year but a few interesting storms.
    For me I have a couple tropical storm Isias, Bethany and Hamden CT getting hit by a tornado in August for the second time in three years, and Boston getting 4.3 inches of snow on 10/30 making it the biggest October snowfall ever.

    1. Weatherwise, the ONLY thing that comes to my mind
      was the 5 inches of snow here in JP in October. That was pretty special. Other that that Ho-Hum. The December 17th snow was nice, but was rather run of the mill in my mind. In the weather department, I am really tough to please.

    4. My most memorable was the 10/30 October snow and the recent 12/16-17 snowstorm (13.0”). My saddest memory was the Christmas Eve snowmelt along with the lump of coal for Christmas Day morning. Otherwise 2020 had nothing else much worth remembering.

    5. I would say that wind & rain event that lasted like seconds but did significant damage throughout multiple areas .

  11. Hi all, long time no post – hope everyone’s doing well. My most memorable weather event of 2020 was in May when we had the straight line winds/maybe F0 tornado in Chelmsford/Westford/Groton. I’ve never experienced anything like that – the wind seemed to pull the windows into a vacuum, and the sound… it really did sound like a freight train (and I know what that sounds like, there’s one nearby).

        1. I know. It’s obviously forecasting a layer of much colder air just above the surface in order for that sleet to form in the first place.

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