Friday January 1 2021 Forecast (9:25AM)

95 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 1-5)

Happy New Year to all! We start 2021 with an active weather pattern bringing 2 bouts of unsettled weather during its first 5 days. Today starts bright and cold with sun & high clouds as high pressure sits over the region. We’ll see cloudiness advance during the day as the high pressure area starts a northeastward retreat and low pressure approaches from the southwest. This low pressure area will be heading for the eastern Great Lakes, but along its warm front we’ll see a secondary low pressure area develop, near Long Island, then track northeastward across southeastern New England Saturday morning. This will be a progressive system with precipitation arriving as snow for most areas tonight, except rain along the South Coast, then transitioning to sleet & rain from south to north as warmer air comes in aloft, but surface cold will probably allow a period of freezing rain and some glazing of ice to take place across Worcester County, adjacent northeastern CT, and along the I-495 belt from near I-90 northward into southern NH, so be aware that any untreated surfaces may become very slippery. Temperatures should make it above freezing in all areas as the rain moves out from southwest to northeast by late morning or midday Saturday, and clouds will break as the secondary low exits via the Gulf of Maine, pulling drier air back in behind it. Similar to today, high pressure will then build in for Saturday night and early Sunday with dry/colder air. Watch for the formation of black ice Saturday night on surfaces that don’t dry off. Another low pressure area will make a run at us from the southwest later Sunday, and the slower movement of this one will allow it to hang around offshore Monday and even into Tuesday. This one should again begin as snow for most of the region except possibly mixed precipitation or rain for the South Coast, and drier air may eat away at the precipitation area for a time on Sunday night, but Monday’s situation may become more complex as the low center gets a shot of energy and intensifies, making for heavier precipitation at the same time colder air is drawn closer to the storm center. This would mean a better chance of accumulating snow for more of the region, including Boston. We’ll have to see how far south and east it can get from there, as temperatures will probably still be marginal or just too mild for all snow for at least a while. At this time, I do think while the low will be close enough to potentially bring snow and rain showers to at least eastern coastal areas, especially Cape Cod, on Tuesday, it should be far enough offshore to not bring any steady precipitation to the region.

TODAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Highs 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow, except rain South Coast, arriving southwest to northeast by late evening, may mix with sleet before changing to rain except freezing rain over northeastern CT, interior MA, and southern NH. Snow accumulation of a coating to 2 inches away from the coast, highest amounts in the higher elevation of southwestern NH and central MA. Lows 29-36 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH inland and 10-20 MPH coast.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with areas of fog and a chance of rain in the morning. Breaking clouds in the afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind NE to variable 5-15 MPH becoming W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 23-30. Watch for black ice formation. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow, except mix/rain South Coast, arriving by the end of the day. Highs 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of snow except mix/rain in coastal areas. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain (mostly coast) & snow (mostly interior) may get heavier and rain may change to snow in all areas by later in the day. Highs 32-39. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain tapering off. Lows 23-30. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Snow and/or rain showers possible. Highs 32-39. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 6-10)

Transition to a blocking pattern. Seasonably cold & dry weather will flank one storm threat that comes around January 8.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 11-15)

Indications are for stronger blocking. Storm threat in the January 12-14 window.

95 thoughts on “Friday January 1 2021 Forecast (9:25AM)”

  3. Thank you so much, TK!

    A beautiful winter morning!

    Happy New Year to you all!

    Health, happiness and blessings to us all in 2021!

  4. Happy New Year Everyone!!! I look forward to another year talking weather with all of you.
    TK I can’t wait to read your weather predictions for 2021. I will be making mine and hopefully others will and we could look back on December 31st to see if any of our predictions happened.
    Here are mine
    15-25 inches of snow for the rest of winter 2020-2021
    First few days of spring will be pleasant but winter takes one last jab delivering the accumulating snow in the final days of March
    April will be closer to normal temperature wise unlike last year
    The first widespread 90 degree temps will arrive just before Memorial Day
    Summer will average 2-4 degrees above normal with 20-30 90 degree or higher days. The worst of the heat will be from mid July through the first two weeks of August
    Normal thunderstorm activity but I am not expecting a widespread severe weather outbreak this year
    No landfalling hurricanes in New England again this year
    September through mid October will continue to be warmer than normal. By mid October finally classic fall weather will be here
    Just prior to Thanksgiving the first flakes of the season will happen
    First widespread snowfall will come just after Christmas so unfortunately another year without a White Christmas

    1. 15-25 for the rest of winter? I feel like this would be incorrect. There’s my one and only counter prediction.

      1. Yes I am going with 15-25 more inches of snow for the rest of winter. How much snow do you think will fall for the rest of winter?

  6. Thanks Tom
    I think TK has a better shot at me than being right with predictions for 2021. I did get a couple things right for 2020 calling for no landfalling hurricanes in New England and the first widespread snowfall would be in mid December and there would be no White Christmas

  7. Happy new years all and thanks tk!

    What’s your thinking for the weather in the Buffalo vs Miami game @ 1 in buffalo on Sunday? I can’t wait to watch the game. For anyone who doesn’t watch this is a possibly must win game for Miami to get into the post season (unless one of the less likely win/loss scenarios happen.) Buffalo, one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, already is in. Tua, the QB for miami, hasn’t played in inclement weather… it’s his rookie year as a starter and the backup QB who bailed him and the team out and secured the win last week has tested positive for covid and can’t help him this game. Tua has to dig out this win solo in his rookie year in the cold when he has always been a warm weather QB against one of the most dynamic teams of the 2020 season.

  8. Thanks TK and everyone! Someday I may actually understand enough to contribute intelligently here but in the meantime please know that I am lurking and learning and so appreciative and grateful for this community and everyone here. Happy new year and stay safe!

    1. Mama, you always contribute intelligently. I enjoy seeing your name in the sidebar and reading your comments.

  9. If Tua is struggling to move the ball like he did against the Raiders there will be no Ryan Fitzpatrick to take over as he has tested positive for COVID19. For Bills how long do they play there starters. Is it a big deal for them if they drop to the third seed? The highs are suppose to be in the mid 30s passing snow showers.
    I can’t believe my Dallas Cowboys are playing a meaningful game against the Giants this Sunday. They have to win and have Philly beat Washington. If you told me when they got to 3-9 they would have a chance to win the NFC East I would think your crazy. It suppose to be raining for the game Sunday.

  10. Thank You as always TK, and my most sincere wishes for a happy and healthy 2021 to you and your family. That includes all here on the WHW blog as well! Cheers to a new year of weather prognostication at its finest here.

  14. TK’s only marginally scientific and mostly unscientific “predictions” for 2021’s weather…

    2021 will be the coolest year of the last 10.

    Active pattern through mid January, then it gets fairly quiet from late January through most of February, prompting JP Dave to declare this the “most boring *#&@)!% winter EVER!”

    Dave recovers in March when my unreasonably far-out-on-a-limb forecast of above normal snowfall actually comes true. 😉

    After the cold & snowy interlude to end the winter, spring 2021 will be a classic warm inland, cool coast, with regular rainfall. There will be no more than minor final snowflakes in early April.

    Summer 2021 will be slightly cooler than normal due to lack of sustained heat thanks to frequent visits from Canadian high pressure. We’ll have our hot days, and our occasional humidity, but it will never seem to get itself established for any length of time before being wiped out. The end of summer, early September, may be the most volatile for a battle between lingering summer heat and early-season cold shots originating in the polar regions. The big question: Will we add another year to our New England hurricane landfall drought? I say yes.

    Other than 1 or 2 stretches of mild/dry weather, autumn (late September through November) will be frequently cool with lots of early use of wood stoves & conventional heating needed. We’ll alternate between dry spells and wetter periods. The first snowflakes will be seen in mid to late October. Measurable snowfall will occur a few times in November, especially away from the coast.

    December 2021 will announce loudly that winter 2021-2022 will be one you are not going to forget…

    1. I will predict (unfortunately) that your SNE Wx Conference will go “virtual” once again. “Normal” as we remember it will finally return sometime early-mid 2022 as health officials will be extremely cautious reopening.

      3. The small virtual format worked great! If a larger version had to be done for 2021’s conference, they’d pull it off nicely.

        Time will tell on that. I’m not pessimistic, but realistic with a dash of cautious optimism about how we come out of this.

    2. 🙂 🙂

      Intrigued by what you said for next Winter. Bold statement!

      December 2021 will announce loudly that winter 2021-2022 is one you are not going to forget…

  19. Thank you, TK

    Happy New Year to our WHW family as well as their families. I wish you all good health, peace, smiles and love

  20. Northeast CT? Ice? Northwest RI also? Guess where I’m going with this 😉

    Areas just north of those locations also??

  21. That ice accretion forecast is going to be a bit of a headache to figure out. 😉

    Quick commentary on the 12z guidance: NAM & GFS both “ok”. NAM probably too warm for Monday. Slide that snow a little further south and east. We’ll learn more as our first system of 2021 departs on Saturday. They are close together and the factor of one influencing the other will be there.

  25. 18Z NAM run looks interesting so far.
    It has it plenty cold at 925 and 850 MB. But upper 30s along the coast. This could present some dynamic cooling where the precip type may end up snow and not rain.

    1. Eventually shoves the 850 mb 0 C line inland from the coast.
      Nam just not playing the game. Decent snow event for inland.

  29. It is obvious that the pattern at the moment for these first few days of 2021 is just not really favorable for snow especially for SE portions of SNE (from inside I-495 east and south to the Cape). Hopefully in the next 7-10 days it will be more favorable from SNE to the Mid-Atlantic. For now, it’s all about NNE.

    “O”-for-February as far as snow?? We might as well write off that month. 😉

    1. Try more favorable for the mid-Atlantic!)*@#*!^@#&(^!&@^#%&*!@#&!@*&#^*&!@^#&*!^@*#&^!*&@#%*&!%@#*&%!*&@#%*&!^@#&*!^@*&#^!*&@^#*&!^@#&*^!*&@#^&*!

      1. I am liking the RDPS solution AND it has rain along the coast to start. If it is wrong about temp profiles, then there could even be more snow.

        This is more like the 0Z GFS solution last night.

        Speaking of GFS, it is running now.

          1. Although, that is certainly a possibility, I still think it
            would be a BIG mistake to hold firm on that thought. 🙂

            We shall know soon enough.

  33. TK/JP Dave – What exactly does the Saturday system have to do in order to bring snow to Boston on Monday?

    The Monday system would have to pass a bit further south of SNE than currently projected for starters so colder air can work in.

    1. Phillip, not sure. TK needs to answer.

      Some thoughts, however

      I wouldn’t want tonight’s system to blow up into a monster in Canada, as that might shunt Sunday night/Monday’s to the South.

      On the other hand, I don’t want it to wimpishly pass to our north as I don’t want the door open for a too far North pass of Sunday Nights/Monday system.

      I want tonight’s to pass along at just the right degree of intensity to allow the next system to pass far enough North to get us, yet far enough South so enough cold air is around for snow.

      Should be interesting, for sure.

    1. I remember back in the 1990s Todd Gross saying one night a storm was going out to sea and then the next day he came back on and said where 2 models were onboard last night all the models came on board the next day and the storm was now on. So things will change. I rather see this discrepancy now rather than a foot plus at this point as that usually changes on us…

  36. Metro Atlanta and regions to the south have been dealing with Tornado Warnings this afternoon. At the last check, there were warned storms heading into South Carolina.

    1. Oh my. Thank you, Captain. While my sister in law passed a while ago, she has a dear friend I’ve kept in touch with in Atlanta. And we have several friends in SC

  37. What has to happen with the system tonight for the Monday system to produce snow into the city? Well there are several scenarios that could result in it.

    These 3 systems (tonight’s, Sunday night / Monday, and one later next week) are going to be taking place as we transition to -NAO which has been seen coming for a while now.

    I think we stand a slightly better chance if the first system is out of the way, quick-moving, not nearly as deep, allowing the second system to deepen a bit more uninhibited. That’s going to help bring cold air into the mix faster and the Boston-Providence question mark could become much more sided toward frozen stuff, but this probably would not happen until later in the storm, so a depiction as we see on the 18z NAM may not be all that far off. It’s time to watch system #1 play out. We can’t just blindly say “it’s going to do this” or “it’s going to do that” without reasoning to back it up. I’m not sure if my reasoning is right, but we’re going to find out. The inherent uncertainty in the science. Anybody can guess. A scientist makes his or her guess as educated as possible, even if it turns out to be a really poor guess. 😉

  38. I hope you all enjoy the snow and winter weather, I will miss it and i probably complain about missing out on the snow. I have a feeling.
    My prediction for this year.
    1. New England sees winter hold on in March and end up with above normal snowfall for the season. (Because mother nature is going to be cruel and let it snow while I am not here 😛 )
    2. Spring ends up around normal
    3. A severe weather out break will lead to a tornado that makes headlines some where in New England.
    4. Nice summer weather brings in for a summer full of celebration 😉
    5. Average number of 90 degree days.
    6. I will become frustrated with people saying oh look the temperatures for this year are below normal when in actuality its above normal its just that we are using the new year average which makes it look like we are cooler.
    7. I say we end up in the top 12 in terms of warmest years.
    8. Fall will be similar to this year but October and November are colder.
    9. December is an actual blow torch and makes us all sad but gives us a surprise right around Christmas 😉

    1. I’ll take the RDPS over NAM but let’s see how the 12z suite comes in tomorrow we should have a better handle then. Thank you JJ

  45. Right now I am thinking 1-3 2-4 for the interior which will whiten the ground and make it look like winter.

  46. A light something here now. I think a mix. Temp down a degree to 31. Sutton is treating roads so I’m assuming slippery….especially toward center of town

  47. Everything is on track with system #1. I was just driving under the heavier snow band which was “fun”. Actually driving was ok if you were driving no higher than 45 on the highway. Problem is, there were people who decided going 65-70 was ok…. All Wheel Drive does not make one invincible on the road…

      1. About what was expected.

        Here in Woburn I measured 0.7 inch from the initial burst of snow, which then came to a complete stop. We now have light sleet.

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