Sunday January 3 2020 Forecast (8:34AM)

76 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 3-7)

Clouds will be dominant today from a combination of onshore air flow pushing lower level clouds in from the Atlantic, and clouds coming in above that ahead of our next storm system, the center of which will pass just southeast of New England Monday, then do a bit of a loop east of New England for a couple days after that keeping is on the unsettled side here, before high pressure moves in with fair weather for Thursday.

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Snow/mix interior, mix/rain coast, arriving late-day. Highs 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of snow except mix/rain in coastal areas. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain (mostly coast) & snow (mostly interior) tapering off later in the day. Snow accumulation from up to a slushy coating coastal areas, coating to 2 inches I-95 belt and lower I-495 belt, 2-4 inches upper I-495 belt northwestward. Highs 32-39. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers possible. Lows 25-32. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Snow and/or rain showers possible. Temperatures generally 32-39. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 8-12)

A stronger blocking pattern is expected to force the next low pressure area in the pipeline south of New England between late January 8 and early January 10 but we’ll have to keep an eye on it anyway, just in case it ends up further north than expected. The next system may approach by the very end of the period and have a better chance at reaching this area.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 13-17)

Expecting an unsettled start to this period, details dependent on the track of low pressure, and then a shift to seasonably cold and dry weather.

76 thoughts on “Sunday January 3 2020 Forecast (8:34AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    A couple of reposts from earlier….

    JpDave
    JANUARY 3, 2021 AT 8:29 AM
    From NWS Norton

    Many factors are not in sync with each other to produce a
    significant event for us. First, the lack of strong high
    pressure and cold air to the north means that there will not be a strong frontogenetic forcing as with some storms. Models indicate that the upward vertical motion is weak…and not coincident with the dendritic snow growth region of -12C to-18C. Temperature profiles are marginal, especially in eastern MA and RI. Where precipitation is light, it may easily flip over to rain, cutting down amounts. In addition, some models indicate dry air that may intrude and shut off precipitation before daybreak Monday. Plus, the system is progressive while passing us, shortening the period of precipitation.

    And there you have it.

    One caveat… this is New England and stranger things have
    happened, so we need to still monitor the progress of the
    storm. If it deepens closer to the coast, it could mean more in the way of snow east of I-95. Right now, that is not expected.

    REPLY
    Woods Hill Weather
    JANUARY 3, 2021 AT 8:36 AM
    I completely agree. The only real watcher about this is that potential snowfall band in eastern areas. I never had a concern for this being a “big event”. The details I am working out are based on exactly what they stated.

    JpDave
    JANUARY 3, 2021 AT 8:38 AM
    12Z HRRR Kuchera Snow….. POOFORAMA!!!

    https://m1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2021010312/024/snku_acc.us_ne.png

  2. Thank you, TK.

    Though it’s been seasonable for the most part in terms of temperature, I’m curious where the `real’ cold air is. It’s the missing ingredient for coastal areas that prevents us from receiving accumulating snow.

  6. Thanks TK.

    And I agree with you, today’s system never really seemed to have any potential to me. The pattern the past couple weeks has been quite hostile for Northeast US snow potential, not a surprise. I continue to expect a lot of that this winter, however we’ll have to see how the upcoming blocking pattern plays out. I would imagine there are going to be some opportunities, although as TK has stated the bigger risk for SNE in such a pattern is storms missing to the south. I also have a strong suspicion models are maintaining the blocking pattern for too long, and that we’ll revert to the current/recent more typical La Nina pattern towards mid-month or soon after.

    2. Thanks WxWatcher! I am always happy to see your posts here and hear your thoughts.

      Obviously this is just some educated guesswork, but I have a feeling that the block is too strong for New England for a short time, forcing one system OTS, then the block blows itself up sooner than guidance indicates and sends a series of storms much closer to New England, maybe over or even west of here in which to get snow in SNE we’d need to get kind of lucky. At this point our transition to the SE ridge pattern will be ongoing and this is why I felt compelled to go low on snow for January, despite the active pattern. We all know it takes one perfectly timed event to change all of that, so we will see how it unfolds. That’s part of the excitement of watching this stuff. 🙂

    1. I see some very light stuff coming in from the ocean. Seeingvany snow, snow grains or snizzlevdown you way?

  8. I’m always about betting the under when there’s model disagreement in the lead up. I need to buy a new snowblower to really cinch the deal of preventing snow.

    1. No. Not all La Nina patterns are warm in New England. But a typical La Nina general setup is dry and mild in the southeastern US with a fairly frequent ridge there. As we have seen MANY times, that does not automatically translate to mild weather all the way through for New England. La Nina winters are probably close to a 50/50 split in terms of both temp & precip/snow anomalies, because there are far more factors than just a ridge in the Southeast that go into determining the weather here.

      I do feel, however, that the majority of late January & February will be milder than average, and trend drier as well. We will not be without cold shots or wintry weather threats for 6 weeks though. Trust me on that. 🙂

    2. I don’t agree with the “what could have been an epic blizzard” comment. The pattern NEVER supported that, even with a bit of a block. Some of the major ingredients are still missing either way.

  13. Hey, south shore friends, what is with the new route 3 exit numbers? Good grief, there is no limit to what government will sneak in when we are locked in our homes for Covid

    For the record. Exit 12 will ALWAYS be EXIT 12 ……..

    1. New state regulation and it’s going to be statewide . It’s nearest mile marking I believe . It’s been well advertised on local news for awhile . I do not like it .

      1. My youngest and family just sent a pic. I may not like it but neither of my girls do well with change…..especially when it comes to Humarock.

        1. It’s going to be on every highway statewide . They are moving pretty fast on it . Old numbers will be underneath for one year .

          1. They did this years ago in a bunch of states. It does make sense to have mile markers I guess.

            A bit of styrofoam pellets here a bit ago. Stopped for now

  14. It’s feeling/looking/smelling/tasting like snow. It “should” do so any minute…any time now. 🙂

  18. Still a steady “light” snow here in JP. Temp 34, so intensity is not
    enough for it to start to accumulate yet.

      2. Yes, but offshore based on best info available now.

        This is why we couldn’t not, and technically still cannot rule out a bit more snow than even forecast now. It’s an extremely close call. That’s why just blindly ruling it out without the use of meteorology to back it up is not something that should be heeded.

        1. There is “just” enough cold air where we don’t really need dynamic cooling. Any intensity at all would flip any rain falling to snow, except within a mile or so of the shore line and even there it should flip to snow.

          I have been watching radar all day and frankly, it is already
          snowing MORE than I expected. Will be continuing to watch.

          TK, thank you for all you do.

          Latest HRRR now has snow back up to 1.4 inches for Boston.

  21. It may be my imagination, but it sure looks to me as if the radar is filling in From the coast all the way back to West of Albany!!

    Is something Up? A little surprise perhaps?

    1. With Boston’s average high in the upper 30s it will run near to slightly above normal, which was expected this week with the lack of arctic air about.

      Finally may tap a piece of that arctic air and bring it across the pole for a brief shot or 2 as we get toward mid January.

      1. I’ll take any warm days during the winter . Who knows how this winter will end but the last few winters have been pretty easy .

        1. Never know for certain until we see it happen, but I don’t think overall this will be a winter to remember either, other than our October & December snow events we already had, and (if I’m right) the ending in March). But we’ll see how it goes. Any blocking & then transition time, which we will be experiencing during the next 2 to 3 weeks, can be interesting and very volatile with little warning.

          1. As long as it’s not 3/27 I’m getting a big black & gray American tattoo on my left shoulder I can’t wait . I made the appointment on Veterans Day . I believe they call it a midlife crisis lol . I’d show you all the photo but I do not know how to do it . My wife is not happy lol .

  24. Gerry Mardsen of Gerry and the Pacemakers died. He was 78. His song has become the anthem of FC Liverpool (the club John Henry owns). In this clip, you’ll see the wonderful tradition of singing by British football (soccer) fans, as they sing Gerry’s signature song “You’ll Never Walk Alone.

    https://twitter.com/LFC/status/1345788898744688640

    They sing all kinds of songs, in unison.

    God Save the Queen – the nationalist spirit of England rings through:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTLUvU4u8EM

    Always Look on the Bright Side of Life – this is after a match in which you’ve humiliated your opponent:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvT_7OxlHFM

    1. Wow! I saw Gerry and the Pacemakers live and in person in
      1964 or 1965. He was awesome and put on one hell of a show.

      We keep losing too many. Sad day. Thank you for sharing.

      1. I just love the song. Gerry was a terrific person. And, the singing by the crowd gives me goose bumps.

        You’ll notice banners that parody red banners with Marx, Engels, and Stalin. This is typical British satire/parody. Liverpool’s nickname is the Reds. And so, they adopt these red banners, but instead of Marx, Engels, and Stalin, they have portraits of famous figures in Liverpool history.

        I must say, to this day, I’m perplexed at why “red” states in the U.S. are Republicans. Everywhere else in the world “red” signifies socialism. It’s bizarre when GOP leaders say “let’s make this state red.” Somehow I think the historical connotation is lost on these folks.

  26. Snowing much lighter here now. Probably a good 1/2 to 3/4 inch on the ground.

    WOW! Can you stand it?

  30. One more batch heading for the Boston area through about 11:30PM and then that should wind down the accumulation portion of the event. The intensification of the low and heavier precipitation will just be too far offshore. Boston is escaping a 3-5 inch snowfall by about 100 miles tomorrow morning.

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