Monday January 4 2021 Forecast (7:30AM)

52 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 4-8)

Low pressure southeast of New England will remain just far enough offshore to keep its main precipitation shield, which is over Cape Cod and parts of the South Shore of MA as mainly rain right now, out over the water, but will do a small cyclonic loop east of our region through early Wednesday, keeping lots of cloudiness and a few episodes of rain and snow showers going, mainly for the NH Seacoast region through eastern MA and possibly RI, while areas to the west see cloudiness but probably no precipitation other than a brief snow shower on Tuesday when the low is at its furthest west. The system finally pulls away during Wednesday allowing dry air to move in, which will then dominate through Friday as high pressure moves in and dominates. We will start to see some high cloudiness in the sky on Friday in advance of the next low pressure area we have to watch.

TODAY: Cloudy. Rain Cape Cod and southern South Shore of MA this morning. Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers elsewhere until midday. Highs 34-41. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH except 10-20 MPH coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers possible, favoring the capes of MA. Lows 25-32. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain/snow showers favoring NH Seacoast, eastern MA, and possibly RI. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH interior except 15-25 MPH eastern coastal areas.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers lingering in eastern areas. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy early morning with a lingering snow shower possible in eastern areas, then partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny but some increasing high clouds later in the day. Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 9-13)

Blocking pattern in place, may be strong enough to force the next storm system south of the region on January 9 but we’ll have to continue to keep an eye on it. High pressure builds in with fair and seasonably chilly weather January 10-11, then watching the next unsettled weather threat from low pressure heading this way from the southwest January 12-13.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 14-18)

Unsettled weather threat briefly between late January 14 into January 15, but otherwise mainly dry and trending a little colder mid to late period. Large scale blocking pattern may begin to break down during this period.

52 thoughts on “Monday January 4 2021 Forecast (7:30AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Oh well, another one down the drain…..
    More to come, I’m sure. And I mean more down the drain or out to sea or whatever means Mother Nature conjures up to screw us over. 🙂

  6. Good morning tk! Football yesterday was such fun. I can’t wait for saturday. Tom Brady in his first postseason game as a buccaneer vs the man who will almost certainly be comeback player of 2020 alex smith.

  7. Thanks TK
    At least Washington winning took the sting out of my Cowboys loss to the Giants. The Titans winning the AFC South with a field goal that bounced off the upright and went in was something. Now on to Super Wild Card Weekend with three games on both weekend days for the first time ever.

    1. Didn’t measure exactly. Somewhere between 0.5 and 0.75.
      I call it 0.5 to be safe. Season total here. 19.5 inches.

        1. In my neighborhood (Dorchester) any snow was mostly on cars and a teeny bit on the sidewalks. Nothing really special.

  10. Boston has a seven inch lead over NYC for snowfall for the season. I don’t think that will be the case for the 2021 baseball season.

    1. Even though Alex Cora is back as manager, I expect nothing much from the Red Sox. Yankees rule AL East as usual. 🙁

  11. As a Yankees fan we expect more than winning the AL East. It is about what they do in October and anything short of a World Series is a failure.

  14. At least we did not get skunked this winter and had one good size storm back in the middle of December.

  16. For the Jeopardy! fans on the blog this week will be Alex Trebek’s final five episodes with his last one being this Friday.

  17. Well my biggest screw up today was the sky condition. But I don’t think too many will complain that “cloudy” ended up being “partly cloudy” for many areas. 🙂

  18. The difference between the op GFS & ECMWF at 12z is astounding, but not surprising. 😉

    ECMWF is too far south with the system around January 12.
    Based on pattern analysis, GFS is moving that energy too quickly.

    1. Would that analysis suggest you favor a more substantial storm threat around then? Slower and further north southern stream disturbance potentially phasing with the northern trough? I see that as a possible outcome although like you said the differences are huge and the Euro says “what northern trough?”

      1. Yes. That is exactly what my thought process is. I think the Euro is vastly under-forecasting the northern energy, but it’s a way off still so we’ll see how things play out and how these guidance tools pick up on and resolve things as time draws nearer. I’ve liked the Euro’s general solutions better the last few days but I’m not a fan of today’s 12z op.

        GEPS today (12z) is showing the pattern evolution I have in mind as we move through January, at least in a general sense.

  19. I took a break from social media and blog posting (other than to wish TK a happy anniversary) during the holiday.

    Sorry for those who wanted more snow from yesterday but it was never going to be a big one. Dusting to 3 on the low end and if it intensified sooner / closer, maybe 3-6. It was never going to be a big one. Social media helps these things take a life of their own.

    As for the 12th. I don’t have a great feel for it. The ECMWF Control run sure helps me sort it out the Op run’s general over amplification of the southern stream. However today’s 12z control run has a super armped southern stream and changes snow to rain as the 540 line ends up in south central Vermont and New Hampshire.

    Here is my take – the entire ECMWF suite had a bad data intake either from far reduced data which threw off its weighted algorithms or it had what we call noise pollution in its data intake which throws off the forecast output especially the further you get from hour 0. It will probably take until the 12z tomorrow to fully flush out if that’s the case.

    All that written, GFS or ECMWF be weary behind 3 days. No matter if it tells you clear skies or 30″ of snow. As for the CMC/GEM UK, JMA, ICON and the rest of the garbage, don’t waste your time right now.

    1. Thanks JMA, and I couldn’t agree more regarding the models. Remember a few days ago when one of the GFS runs spit out 18-25 inches of snow for the Boston area from the system that is giving us a light breeze and partly cloudy skies right now? 😉

      1. When I saw the control be 180 degrees of where it normally is from the op run, my antenna went up. I have a couple of feelers out to better confirm my suspicion, but I haven’t heard back yet.

        Yes I saw that GFS run. Hell the NAM for yesterday went from 15″ to 0.5″ in 2 cycles….

        But on the medium and long range stuff … keep it short and simple for now. Too many people making bold proclamations based on model runs, op or ens, that better sync with their desired outcome.

        1. You nailed it on the bold proclamations. I’ve been watching a non-met page eating crow on a regular basis since the autumn, and he hasn’t learned yet.

          Just a couple weeks ago this declaration of a major pattern change to big cold & big snow was pretty much a lock for the Northeast and the statement was made that he had no trouble seeing this when no actual mets picked up on it. Yeah, there was a reason that most meteorologists didn’t pick up on it. Because it wasn’t there after the application of meteorology. But what do we know? 😉

    1. I think so . I could be out until the 25th will I see another snow storm before that time , if I had to pick from my gut today I would say absolutely not but I have no idea .

      1. But what about the every year threat on MLK Weekend? 😉 (Which doesn’t actually happen every year…)

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