Tuesday January 5 2021 Forecast (7:29AM)

58 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 5-9)

We continue to watch a blocking pattern establish itself with visible evidence in low pressure temporarily stuck off our eastern coastline, which will continue to through cloudiness and occasional rain & snow showers back into the region, especially eastern areas, through early Wednesday, before it heads out and high pressure takes its place later in the week with seasonably chilly, dry weather. The next storm system will very likely head out to sea south of New England, with our area only seeing some high cloudiness from it later Friday into Saturday. This is due to the block’s positioning and strength and the resulting storm track being forced well to the south. This particular block is also keeping the cold air on the “other side” of the pole, with parts of Asia & Europe much colder while North America is not so cold.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain/snow showers favoring NH Seacoast, eastern MA, and possibly RI. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH interior except 15-25 MPH eastern coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers lingering in eastern areas. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy early morning with a lingering snow shower possible in eastern areas, then partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny but some increasing high clouds later in the day. Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: High overcast. Lows 20-27. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Filtered sun with high clouds to start, then brighter sunshine. Highs 37-44. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 10-14)

The blocking pattern will remain in place. The next storm threat is in the January 12-13 window and this one may get a little closer to the region than the one before it, so we’ll have to keep a close eye on it. Temperatures not too far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 15-19)

With low to moderate confidence I look for a weak system to pass through with minor precipitation about January 15 and a break-down of the large scale blocking pattern, which for our area probably means dry, colder weather overall. Have to watch for any disturbances from the west that medium range guidance is not picking up on solidly this far in advance.

58 thoughts on “Tuesday January 5 2021 Forecast (7:29AM)”

  1. Thank you Tk . To answer the question on every year MLK storm threat of watcher as I say if Is indeed covered again as we have a snow watcher for Friday night / Saturday but that will probably not happen as you mentioned above . In the meantime getting to enjoy the heavy coating of snow that fell last night .

    1. MLK Weekend this year is 1/16 – 18. As TK mentioned above, the blocking pattern may be breaking down by then.

      It has been awhile since we haven’t had an MLK Weekend “event” though.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Sugar coating of snow overnight.
    perhaps another 1/4 inch.

    Snowing very lightly again now.

  6. Thanks TK !

    We didn´t see any accumulation on this side of Marshfield. Still some precip falling. When there is any intensity, you can see some big snow flakes, otherwise the lighter stuff falls as rain.

      1. Arctic air is restricted to central Canada I believe and elsewhere on the other side of the world. We still “should” be able to snow with marginally cold air this time of year though. Just need the perfect track.

  9. Interesting…Logan has the coldest reading in all of SNE (32F) in the middle of the afternoon no less. Even Worcester is at 33F.

  10. 12z op ECMWF … A better run. I believe its handling of the energy for the next 2 systems near the East Coast more reasonable than the run 24 hours before it. Obviously too soon for detail on the system around the 12th/13th but the idea is that it has a better shot at bringing precipitation into SNE than the one before it. Not worth the bother looking at exact low position, intensity, and rain/snow lines this far in advance. Waste of time.

    12z op GFS reminds me of the mistake I felt the ECMWF was making yesterday, but making it even more quickly. 😉 Too fast, too far south with early next week’s threat.

    Long way to go…

  11. Did I miss any discussion here about the article on Boston.com relating to a “splitting polar vortex”? I’d like to hear the WHW pros digest that information. I’ve been in and out so if it has been addressed earlier can someone point me in the general direction. It did make my snow-loving heart beat a little hopeful but maybe that was just the photo.

  14. it has been snowing all afternoon here. Grassy surfaces just
    beginning to get dusted up again. A heavier band is just off shore
    and moving this way. We shall see if it gets in here and IF it is intact.

    1. Been snowing here since last night . Heavy coating on grass , cars & porches this morning when I woke up . No accumulation today but snowing all day .

  15. Thank you, TK.

    With so little `real’ cold air around, if the blocking breaks down and we get a southerly or southwesterly going we’re going to warm up big time at some point this month. I mean 60 wouldn’t be out of the question at all. There is no snow cover in all coastal areas. And, practically no ice. Ground is soft. So, while it’s not particularly mild right now, it is quite mild GIVEN that we’re in early January in a blocking pattern.

    1. Actually when the block breaks, we may get at least a couple waves of significant cold.

      I don’t see any real anomalous warmth anytime soon.

  16. NWS not excited about next week…

    Another low pressure may impact our region towards Tuesday, but is
    more likely to remain mostly offshore. Since this system is still a
    week away, not ready to completely dismiss it at this time.

  17. JR believes that arctic air will come down into our northern tier sometime after the next 5-7 days.

    1. It probably will give at least 1 or 2 shots, but it remains to be seen if these will be full-on shots or more glancing blows.

  19. Tk in your crystal ball do you see a very decent shot at no locally snow events . Seems like a lot of missed opportunities.

    2. I can’t narrow down snow vs rain chances more than a few days in advance. There will be plenty of opportunities to follow. As for how many pan out as snow events for you…. we’ll see.

  20. Thanks TK.

    I am liking the looks of the pattern as we head towards mid month. Looks like with the PV split, we finally get some significant cold air intrusions into the eastern two thirds of the country. Not sold yet on the storm threat for the 12th but love the look of the 12z Euro. Beyond that though, lots of cold air in place and some decent northern stream energy diving down from Canada on the GFS.

  22. Judah getting excited as well…

    Judah Cohen
    @judah47
    6h

    In honor of the #polarvortex (PV) disruption graduating from minor to major league status today, an extended length PV movie/animation aka “As the PV Turns” with lots of twists and turns in the plot and plenty more drama to come.

    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1346538907182235649?s=20

    Judah Cohen
    @judah47
    11h

    Clearly the GFS reads the AO blog because latest GFS is predicting, exactly two weeks after a major #polarvortex disruption, an amplified western ridge/eastern trough with a sharp turn to colder & snowier weather in Eastern US. Models struggle post PV disruption so far from given

    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1346465426415394819?s=20

            1. I mean 11th for buying the bread and milk! The first storm threat is centered more around the 12th. But whether that materializes or not, the pattern mid-late month holds a lot of potential.

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