Wednesday January 6 2021 Forecast (7:23AM)

29 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 6-10)

We now are in a blocking pattern and have seen a stratospheric warming event disrupt the polar vortex which means a more volatile pattern for the Northern Hemisphere. What does that mean for us here in the northeastern US? Well, in the very short term, it doesn’t mean all that much different from what I’d been discussing, regarding getting rid of our offshore storm today, slowly, and seeing the next storm system miss to the south early in the weekend, leaving us with seasonably chilly and generally dry weather.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Possible passing snow showers except snow or rain showers Cape Cod. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny but some increasing high clouds later in the day. Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: High overcast. Lows 20-27. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Filtered sun with high clouds to start, then brighter sunshine. Highs 37-44. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 11-15)

The blocking pattern will remain in place. Various guidance remains in disagreement about how the next storm threat(s) will play out but we need to keep an eye on one or potentially 2 systems (January 12-13 & 14-15). The disruption of the polar jet stream will make it difficult to gauge the evolution and timing of disturbances that have the potential to impact our region. Temperatures overall will not be that far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 16-20)

Still lower confidence due to the upcoming instability of the large scale pattern. For now holding onto a continuation of and possible start of the breakdown of the blocking set-up but still a volatile pattern with the impacts from an unstable polar vortex. This probably leads to at least one storm threat and with colder air potentially more available, the winter storm threat would be there. Lots to monitor in the days ahead.

29 thoughts on “Wednesday January 6 2021 Forecast (7:23AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Not holding my breath for next 2 systems. May have to wait for the 3rd system and on that one, both the Euro and GFS are pretty much in agreement.

    We shall see.

    1. We really can’t know anything beyond the early weekend miss with any certainty yet.

      Just look at the way the ECMWF & GFS handle the energy run to run for the system around the 12th. One run, ECMWF hits New England with a messy storm, next run it’s far out to sea. GFS, forget it. It doesn’t even know how to figure out how many events that may be. 1? 2? 5? This is what I mean by forget any model detail beyond day 3. It’s not going to work. The only reason I’m confident in the miss on Friday night & Saturday now is that we are 3 days away from it… If we were going by models, the 00z and to some degree the 06z GFS says get ready for the snowstorms on Nantucket & the Cape Cod! 😉 Time to put out the headline: “Polar Vortex disruption to cause paralyzing blizzards on Cape Cod!” 😉

      1. Yeah, I know. I am the worst pessimist in the world.
        I don’t see the glass as half full or half empty, I see it as totally empty. Not a fun way to live, but I can’t help it.

        I’ll believe the early next week system when I see it.

        After that, I am more hopeful. 🙂

  2. Woke to another heavy snow coating this morning & more icy today vs yesterday . I was In Plymouth by 7 this morning & not much snow there at all at least in the exit 5 area.

  5. Good morning and thanks for the post tk.

    Even if nothing appears it’s still fun to do some model watching in the month of January. It’s already more entertaining than last January’s model watching. I root against snow but I love checking in on the different solutions – I think I’m a weather masochist.

  6. I did hear back from a few people about my idea that ECMWF had a polluted data input for a run or two. They didn’t think so. They believe its variability and mid and long range performance is being caused by the continued depletion of data sources for all weather models and a subtle, but constant tinkering with its parameters in order to adjust for the less rich data input than its programming infrastructure anticipates. (Think of it this way-you know something is broke, so you try to accommodate a workaround, but as you are making the fix, your break something else)

    The GFS was awful early – mid December. Got pretty good the last 1/3 of December and now seems back to its further confused ways.

    Don’t model shop for the solution you want. I see a lot of that going on and we all know that the colder, snowier solution brings more views, more clicks, more tune in’s, etc. On the other hand people with vested interests in a milder winter jump on the model run that suits their needs.

    Fact – beyond 3 days there is little that can be defined right now. The few prognostications I have seen for a potential east coast blizzard in the MLK timeframe are pointless fodder. On the other hand, I am now even less sure about a much above normal temperature profile for SNE for February. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but too many climatic variables and ones that have not seen any significant history of being simultaneously present, to be speaking or writing in the definitive.

  9. Thank you, TK!

    Thank you for alerting me to the fact that a breaking down of the blocking pattern will not necessarily mean warmer temperatures. I was thinking that no longer having a block would mean that a southeast ridge might set up, in which case we’d have mild temperatures, at least from time to time. Though, I do know that even with a SE ridge we can get brief shots of Arctic air.

    There is zero ice coverage on the Charles in Boston and that is a bit unusual on January 6th. I don’t see that changing any time soon. Too `warm’ during the day, and really only marginally cold at night. Enough to freeze up puddles, but not bodies of water.

      1. Then how do you explain last winter’s very early ice cover. There is a danger just using the climate change (or any) blanket statement for one thing that was completely different just last winter.

        1. Valid point, TK.

          I will say, however, that the trend regarding ice cover on the Charles is diminishing ice cover. Of course the corresponding data point is nights in the single digits (and even teens) in Boston. The trend is for fewer nights in the single digits and teens. This doesn’t mean it doesn’t happen. Clearly it does as we saw, for example, in 2015, brief period in 2018, but also a prolonged period in 2011. But, there is a pattern over the last 25 years of less ice and less (sustained) cold. I am not a scientist, so I’m reluctant to attribute this to climate change. However, I believe that is a factor. How much human involvement remains to be seen.

          By the way, I’m OCD in this regard, I follow the ice cover on the Charles in Boston very closely. Last year we did have some ice cover in December (not full), but that was it, really. January produced almost no ice over the Charles. In my lifetime I can say that this is anomalous. Not sure about what will happen this year. But, it’s not looking promising, given the outlook. Cold in February and March is not nearly as conducive to ice formation, as you know.

          1. Yes. The same is true on some of the local ponds. My main point was we can’t just attribute one season’s characteristics to one root cause. It may be part of a trend that is a result of that, or perhaps it is not.

            It would be equally incorrect for me to have attributed last year’s very early ice cover to a volcanic eruption, for example. 🙂

  10. WxW if you are watching today…

    Model mayhem aside, how do you feel about this scenario?
    -Storm OTS (for New England) late week.
    -Storm not as strong but a bit closer to or into SNE Jan 12-13.
    -Some kind of follow-up energy January 14-15.
    -At least one, maybe 2 significant cold shots in the January 16-25 window.
    -Transition to more classic La Nina look end of January into February.
    -Limited opportunities for SNE to get a “classic snowstorm” even with the cold potential upcoming.

    JMA I read your thoughts above, but feel free to chime in here as well!

    1. Almost takes the words out of my mouth TK! In particular, Friday/Saturday storm is well south, and there are definitely growing signs for one or two sharp cold shots mid to late month. And I do still pretty firmly believe the classic La Nina look will show up (some hints of it in recent GEFS runs) but it will end up being missing for at least a good portion of the month.

      Less confident on: Early next week’s system (still think that has some chance to be a bigger event though plenty of uncertainty) and snow potential beyond then. I do think there will be a chance or two for sizable snow events potentially “bracketing” the cold shots, but not seeing any specific “threats” at this point. Bottom line, it looks like a wintry period coming up, but as you said that doesn’t necessarily mean big snow everywhere.

      1. Thank you, and I agree! I was careful to phrase it as limited opportunities, but not zero chance. 😉

  11. The La Nina with the warmer than average north pacific, the PNA/AO/NAO combination and splitting PV has me searching for similar set ups of any duration to try to come with comparables that might help me gain a better feel for the upcoming weeks and months.

    I am pretty confident in a colder than avg period for middle to late month January. I am not sure colder leads to wide spread significant snowfall. The best chance for significant storminess could come around the 19th, but that also might be a moderation period between two shots of cold.

    All I know is I have no confidence in the output from the GFS/ECMWF and it will take patience, willingness to adjust from forecaster confirmation bias, skilled meteorology, and some luck to get these forecasts right.

      1. There would be several examples, but all of them probably have at least one thing about them a little unique.

        I may be able to have somebody help me track down some examples…

    1. There’s a tad more hype than actual useful article there, unfortunately. What is a great educational opportunity on how our atmosphere works is lost behind overstatement, misleading phrases, and fluff. Oh well – try again? 😉

      You’ll get better information on what this pattern means from WxWatcher, JMA, and yours truly.

      1. A tad more hype? That’s a friendly way of wording it …

        This morning’s long term discussion from Norton reads like it might have had input from names familiar to the WHW . Hmm….

        I remain confident in coming cold shots. Temps below normal, but not by any means uncommonly cold for late January. Significant storminess, well we will see.

      2. Thank you TK., I kinda figured that hype was a big part of this. I will always put my stock in you, JMA and WxWatcher.

        1. They seek clicks, which from a media standpoint I understand, but I still feel that none-hype will always be the best way to go. That philosophy just clashes with the prevailing one these days…

Comments are closed.