Thursday January 7 2021 Forecast (7:45AM)

51 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 7-11)

I’m not going to spend time over-analyzing our blocking pattern or trashing the over-hyped headlines flying around the net. Waste of time, actually. Today, I’ll do what I feel I do best, and that is focus on the weather pattern and its expected impact on the WHW forecast area. So let’s do that. 🙂 Blocking continues and will be on the strong side, forcing a storm to pass south of our area Friday night & Saturday, with us seeing no more than some high clouds from the northern side of its cloud canopy. This leaves us dry and seasonably chilly for the next 5 days with today probably the “mildest” and either Saturday or Sunday the “coldest”. See? That was easy…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny but some increasing high clouds later in the day. Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: High overcast. Lows 20-27. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Filtered sun with high clouds to start, then brighter sunshine. Highs 34-41. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 12-16)

This 5-day period is where we will continue in a blocking pattern but likely see more active and changeable weather as a result of it, starting with a storm threat int he January 12-13 period, depending on how close low pressure from the southwest gets to our area, followed by what looks like a weaker system passing by around January 15 and a shot of arctic air potentially arriving at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 17-21)

Blocking should continue. I’m moderately confident of a colder than normal 5-day period here but less confident about any storm threats, leaning drier initially.

51 thoughts on “Thursday January 7 2021 Forecast (7:45AM)”

    1. Those were the days…Amazing actually that Providence was the “jackpot” (24.0”) for SNE. Two feet!!

      Thanks TK. Time really flies.

  3. Thanks TK and for the links too. Do you think when we get back to a more “normal” travel volume, that having more plane data will get the models back to an additional few days of more accurate solutions?

  4. I’m hoping for no snow. I’m dealing with Lyme disease a symptom of the disease is poor balance. I’m very afraid of failing on ice. Thankfully it has settled in only my knees is where I having the miserable pain. Neurologist said I have built up antibodies against the disease it will take several months to possibly overcome this scurge on my body.

  6. Thanks, TK…

    Thinking of you, Robert.

    Sunset at 4:30 tonight!
    Picking up only seconds right now in the morning, but sunrise is heading in the right direction !! 🙂

    Boy, it was dark for the Monday and Tuesday commute! 6:30 am could have been 3 am with the dark and cloud cover!

    TK, did you ever find that report/book on the Blizzard of 1978? I believe you once told me that you had a complete record of local snowfall amounts from that storm complied by the state climatologist.

      1. I’d be curious IF you had a total for JP.

        I measured 36 inches in the middle of our street, up and down.
        I believe that to be pretty accurate, but I would love a comparison figure.

        Many thanks

        1. 19 years in Room 130. My version of organization. We’re moving into a new building in about seven weeks. I need to start now!!!! 🙂

  10. Breaking some all time records for cold in Spain.

    Western Europe has been cold. They will get another shot of significant cold due to the PV split, but before North America ever sees a cold wave from that split, Asia will probably be invaded by the Arctic again sooner…

    1. If that means measurable snow & depending on the area I’d take that bet going on that .

      1. I wrote above quick That means no measurable snow I would take that bet today . As mentioned below very quiet weather expected & a hunch tells me that will carry into February.

  14. Thanks TK.

    Hard to find a quieter stretch of weather in New England this time of year. Great reminder of how complex our weather is too. +PNA, -AO, -NAO, and the local pattern is as tranquil as you’ll ever see it!

    1. I was thinking the same thing today. Went for a walk and I was like, damn this has been pretty nice weather considering where we are on the calendar. And outside of snowstorms, I really hate winter A LOT.

  15. Also, the influence of the MJO on the current pattern is probably being under-appreciated, as it often is.

    1. Not sure if you caught my mention of the MJO last week being unfavorable… Definitely a factor this time.

      1. I think I missed it, but agreed. Unfavorable and only becoming more unfavorable. I do seem to recall a similar recent case (2 years ago?) when everything else seemed to line up but the MJO appeared to have a big hand in overriding it.

        I still see some good cold potential going forward, but as you mentioned yesterday, I too would favor more limited snow (and precip in general) chances at this point. But we’ll see!

        1. Yes.

          My original idea for January was not all that snowy, but I foresaw a transition to more classic La Nina sooner, of course with the caveat of a less-predictable SSW event. This has thrown the delay into it all. We’ll see how it plays out.

  16. Happy New Year to all.
    Yes, this is your professional lurker coming out of hiding for a couple of reasons.
    1 – Belated congrats to TK on the 10 year anniversary. I don’t miss the ‘BZ trolls for a minute.
    2 – My fertile mind has been thinking back to the ’50s. I know that Don Kent was on ‘BZ radio as “Weatherbee The BZ Weatherman.” I am attaching something about a bad snowstorm in 1952 (yep….I was alive then.). My question for TK and all of you who are much more knowledgeable than myself is as follows:
    What would a Don Kent rely on to make an accurate forecast with no models to look at daily?
    And….has there ever been a study of storms like that way back when by using modern day models to see how they might have done 1 to 4 days out. I have no idea what data could be fed into them, but I would love to know if it’s been done and what was the outcome.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_1952_nor%27easter

    And back to lurking!

    1. In the pre-model days it was simply studying upper air & surface maps and applying what we knew of typical movement & behavior of systems. It was only somewhat accurate, and not really very accurate beyond a few days. Thankfully, in those days, weather forecasts only went out 2, 3, or 4 days. There were few or no 5 day forecasts, and 7-day, 10-day, or longer range were unheard of.

      I love your question about running today’s models on past storms, especially historic ones. I suppose technically that could be done if enough archived data was used. I don’t know how much upper air data would be available for such events. But the idea of doing it is fascinating.

      1. Thanks so much TK. Maybe you can put the question to someone who would have access to enough info to do it.

        1. I will inquire. My guess is ultimately it would be hard to pull off unless they have a “pay at home” version of the GFS, ECMWF. 😉 I’m not sure if the government would find such an experiment worth the time. Still the same, I love the idea, and it won’t hurt to ask around.

          It makes me think of the time just before the 1978 blizzard when a model that had just come onto the scene actually had a bit of an accurate depiction of that event and was ignored by some forecasters thinking the model had some bugs to be worked out…

  17. if there was a Pressure data set of major cities across NA probably could do it but I am not sure if there is any such data set.

  19. According to Eric, maybe cold & storminess next weekend and beyond.

    That would be MLK Weekend. What a coincidence! 😉

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