Saturday January 9 2020 Forecast (5:59AM)

28 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 9-13)

A quiet weekend as our ongoing blocking pattern shunts the storm track to the south, with one passing out to seas well south of the region today before high pressure builds in Sunday. While a few high & mid level clouds are around during the day from that storm passing well to the south, a northerly air flow will bring some ocean cloudiness into portions of southeastern MA today. Sunday’s sky will be cloud-free. The storm track will remain suppressed early next week although a little less so, so the next disturbance in the pipeline will have the chance to get a little bit closer to the region on Tuesday while another trough approaches from the west Tuesday into Wednesday. So far, this period looks more like a cloudier time versus having any significant precipitation, but I’ll keep an eye on it…

TODAY: Partly cloudy except mostly cloudy at times MA South Shore through Cape Cod. Highs 34-41. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 21-28. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 14-18)

Another disturbance should scoot through from west to east at the same time temperatures moderate but only expecting a rain or snow shower threat for January 15 before a shot of colder air arrives for the MLK Jr Weekend. We may need to watch for a storm system before that weekend is over, but this is a longer range look with low confidence at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 19-23)

A weakening of the blocking pattern is possible. This should allow for another cold shot at some point and at least one precipitation potential.

28 thoughts on “Saturday January 9 2020 Forecast (5:59AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK
    Pretty benign Winter weather. Not too hard to take, but sure would like to see some snow.

    2. Agreed–the snow lover in me is disappointed, but the school administrator in me doesn’t mind the benign weather–makes it easier for kids to eat snack and lunch outside which is useful in a pandemic!

  4. Thanks TK.

    Not much more to add from me. Long haul stretch of dry weather. Even the cold potential for later in the month is starting to look pretty “meh” at least in terms of anything notable. There is certainly cold to be found in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, but it’s not in North America. It’s no secret that in today’s climate it takes a lot to go right for it to become genuinely cold relative to “normal”. It happens, of course, but less and less.

  5. This morning Dave Epstein showed a nationwide snowfall map with …Texas of all places!

    So this is what our climate has come to.

    1. Not really. It’s what this winter’s pattern has come to.

      Snow in Texas is actually quite common.

  7. Thanks TK !

    Seeing a light mist of snow grains falling. Can see it on windshields and very, very lightly on the ground.

      1. There is nothing boring about being on the sunny side of this. 🙂 My photos from Hampton Beach this morning will illustrate that nicely. 😉

  8. 12z GFS says “It’s time for an MLK Jr Day mix/snow storm for SNE”.

    12z ECMWF says “no storm that day, but I’ll give you milder air and rain showers for the next day…”

    Nothing new here folks.

    2. Only if you base that on model runs that are not really dependable beyond 3 days. You’ve heard myself, JMA, and WxW talk on this. It’s too early to determine that.

      HOWEVER, if it did go that way, it wouldn’t be the first time either. There is this misunderstanding out there in the media world that blocking translates to cold and/or snow every time here in winter. That is just as inaccurate as the idea that spring blocking always leads to overcast/damp weather here. We’ve had many a spring blocking pattern that have resulted in days on end of fair weather. It’s all about the details. One operational run of the ECMWF (which has royally sucked in that range, moreso than the GFS) doesn’t tell us anything worth taking too seriously this far in advance.

  11. Thank you, TK.

    Did someone named Brian, aka TK, predict last month that January was going to be dry? Well, looks like that person is correct yet again.

    1. Well at January 9 it’s a bit early to call that an accurate forecast, although it was really for below normal snowfall, not so much below normal precipitation. I actually went near to slightly above for melted precip. 🙂

  12. The cloud deck over the areas north and west of Boston is not the same as the lower clouds over southeastern MA. This cloud deck formed at an altitude of about 15,000 to 20,000 feet due to a mid level inversion. I was watching that happen on the visible satellite today and was my reason for not forecasting “sunny” outside of the ocean stratus deck today.

  13. TK, I thought you said below normal precipitation. But, I guess you meant snow. Well, we can pretend you weren’t referring to snow.

    You’re right, though, it’s very early to say that January will wind up dry. However, we’re in a mighty dry stretch.

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