Monday January 11 2021 Forecast (7:33AM)

35 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 11-15)

The atmospheric block will continue during the next 5 days, although this pattern has been resulting in dry weather and slightly above average temperatures and will continue to do just that during the next 4 days, although some episodes of cloudiness will be the result of weak disturbances moving across the region. Finally by Friday, a stronger low will take a track northwest of New England, dragging milder air in along with rain showers, likely ending the lengthy stretch of dry weather.

TODAY: Early sun otherwise mainly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy early then clearing west to east. Lows 22-29. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny through midday then some clouds returning again. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely especially afternoon and night. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 16-20)

As low pressure continues to pass north of the region and move away January 16 may dawn showery and mild followed by drying & colder along with a gusty wind. High pressure brings fair weather for January 17. Watching 1 or 2 potential systems to bring unsettled weather between January 18 & 20 but this is very low confidence. Temperatures look somewhat closer to normal for the middle and end of the period but not seeing as strong a sign of a visit from arctic air as was previously indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 21-25)

Continuing to monitor for possible weakening or break down of blocking, but also a more active pattern with increased chances for unsettled weather later in the month, as well as at least slightly better risk of colder weather.

35 thoughts on “Monday January 11 2021 Forecast (7:33AM)”

  1. Thanks, TK.

    One advantage of this dry stretch is clear pavements and trails – great for January walks.

  3. Thank you, TK.

    Beginning to notice it getting a bit lighter in the morning.

    Also, sparrows have been very noisy and active. It’s not yet mating season, but they’re much noisier than they were a month ago. For those of you in the suburbs, listen for the owls in mid to late January. Some of the migratory birds are only weeks from returning.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Please wake me up when this BORING stretch of weather is over.

    YAWN…….. back to sleep……..

    1. JpDave hibernating during the winter. JpDave is officially a bear. Look out for him in the spring when he starts to steal picnic baskets.

  7. Thanks TK.

    Per Terry Eliasen on Twitter, Boston is at 20 consecutive days of warmer than average temperatures, though mostly not by a large margin. Could we stretch that to 30 days? Certainly appears possible. Once again, most days won’t be by a big margin. But it’s a gentle reminder in the midst a very gentle weather pattern that “normal” weather isn’t so normal anymore. The zero point has moved.

  14. WxWatcher, what’s surprised me is the small differential between day- and nighttime temperature. In January, with a northerly (or northwesterly) and clear or partly cloudy skies there tends to be a large difference between the day- and nighttime temperature. Not at all during this stretch. It’s been hard for Boston to dip into the upper 20s at night, and equally hard to crack 40.

    1. Good point Joshua. Near to slightly above average temps overall. I do wonder though if we end up slowly sneaking back into drought mode.

  15. Afternoon ideas…

    Well, no real changes from the thinking this morning. The clouds showed up today, as expected. The quiet pattern rolls on, and even at the end of the week when we get some activity it doesn’t really mark the start of a wild weather period of anything, just a little bit more activity. The PV is in no hurry to visit North America, but there are still signs of a scaled down visit later in January. The harsh winter conditions reside on the other side of the hemisphere at this time.

    NAO looks like it wants to trend neutral not too long from now. MJO forecast by GFS ensembles clusters it in weak to moderate phase 3/4, while the ECMWF’s forecast basically has the MJO as a nearly non-factor.

      1. No, because the MJO is not the only driver. It’s a driver, but it’s not prominent. We’ve had 2 significant snow events this season both with MJO in traditionally “unfavorable” phases.

      2. Phases 7/8 are best in December, 8/1 are best in January, 8/1/2 are favorable phases later in the winter.

      3. I think there will be no significant snow events for Boston / south for January on record 1/11. Of course I have nothing too back that up just this persistent blocking pattern & a strong hunch .

  16. Thanks TK.

    The 12z Euro actually has a strong -NAO and -EPO towards the end of its run. Some more colder air to work with and what looks like a more active pattern. I’m still pretty optimistic about a few snow chances here as we get into the last two weeks of January.

    To be honest, I am more concerned right now about what happens in NNE the next two weeks as we are heading up to Jay Peak next weekend (weekend of the 22nd). Hoping they can pile up some natural snow before then. On a typical year, they lead all eastern ski mountains for snow and often end up with 350-400″+ on the season. They are in the perfect spot orographically for upslope snow as the NW winds whip around the backside of developing Maritime storms, across the plains of Quebec and slam into the mountain. However, this year has been quiet so far, and they are only about a third open given the lack of natural snow.

    I would pay for the 18z GFS to materialize as it dumps 4-5 feet of snow on Jay Peak between storms this weekend and next weekend while we are there 🙂

  17. 18z GFS for this weekend with a major snowstorm for interior CNE and NNE:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021011118&fh=126

    18z GFS for next weekend with an all out blizzard in the same locations:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021011118&fh=264

    And another storm threat around the 26th with what would be all snow for SNE getting shunted just to our south.

    Specifics aside (and we know they will change run to run), pattern definitely looks a bit more interesting after this week.

    1. For comedic purposes, here is the run total snow on the 18z GFS with an epic dump of snow in NNE. Nothing verbatim in the coastal plain but wouldnt take much to get some accumulating snow closer to the coast…

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2021011118&fh=384

      Of course, this is fantasy to look at right now given these are 5 and 10 day threats but just happy to see a potentially more active pattern showing up.

  18. A couple shots I took from Killington on Saturday.

    This one taken from the Great Eastern trail coming off Skye Peak. Visibility was great!

    https://imgur.com/G7UqrE2

    This one on the “Downdraft” trail, a diamond run on Killington Peak which was all natural snow . I was surprised at the number of natural snow trails and even a few glades that they had open, although a few were pretty thin cover. They are up to about 90″ of snow on the season so far….

    https://imgur.com/IQLxydn

  21. Mark, nice pictures from Vermont. Thank you. You’re right about Jay’s Peak. It’s New England’s snow factory. Also a beautiful area.

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