Tuesday January 12 2021 Forecast (7:36AM)

44 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 12-16)

Blocking rolls on. We stay fairly quiet for a few more days before a low pressure system finally has a more notable impact on the region, but not until Saturday as it looks now. We will still some episodic cloudiness from weak disturbances passing by this area through Thursday. High pressure center in Canada will nose down into the region Thursday night and Friday, with a tranquil period of weather hanging on until a broad low pressure system enters the Great Lakes region and pushes its frontal boundary toward the East Coast where a new low pressure area will form southwest of New England, moving just west of or over our region early on Saturday. The set-up and track likely means a period of rain here Saturday morning. While it’s still several days away, it looks like this system may be moving along so we dry out before Saturday’s over, but will tweak the timing & resultant forecast as needed.

TODAY: Sun & clouds, sun ruling the morning-midday, clouds ruling later. Highs 36-43. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds dominant evening before decreasing during overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely overnight. Lows 35-42 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast with widespread rain showers morning. Breaking clouds afternoon from west to east. Highs 45-52. Wind S 10-20 MPH morning, shifting to W with higher gusts afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 17-21)

High pressure is expected to bring fair and seasonably chilly weather January 17. As we continue to be in a blocking pattern the general idea is to return to the set-up we’ve had much of this week with weaker energy moving through out area, so there is potential for some unsettled weather a couple of times but the early outlook is for no major storm systems.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 22-26)

A very low confidence forecast period (lower than even typically for this far out). Continuing to monitor for possible weakening or break down of blocking, but also a more active pattern with increased chances for unsettled weather later in the month, as well as at least slightly better risk of colder weather.

44 thoughts on “Tuesday January 12 2021 Forecast (7:36AM)”

        1. That’s why I said I go in to differentiate between home and away. lol but thanks for rubbing it in. Haha

  14. This is a pretty cool graphic. I did not realize that all of NY and NE had the same criteria for issuance of winter storm warnings…

    Aaron Perry
    @AaronPerryWx
    3h

    Have you ever wondered exactly how much snow needs to be progged for @NWS to issue a Winter Storm Warning in your area? Below are two maps that show just that.

    Left plot is the amount of forecasted snow needed to fall in a 12-hour period, right is 24-hour

    https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1349019296513601538?s=20

  16. Thanks TK. I’m pretty much in total agreement with your thoughts above. Still watching the last week to 10 days of the month for increased storminess potential and maybe some colder air. But there’s nothing particularly interesting in what’s being depicted for later in the month, and so far the trend has just been to keep kicking the can down the road in terms of colder air and snow potential. I suspect if we ever do get such a window, it’ll be pretty brief. In the meantime, quiet as can be.

  17. While I don’t want to impact people’s plans or create tough driving conditions, I’m in need of a decent event to put my mind on the weather, which tends to relax me.

    For me, this quiet pattern hasn’t allowed me that escape from the real world. I wish something would materialize !!

  18. Today’s GFS ensemble MJO phase diagram is funny.

    It looks like somebody dumped a bowl of spaghetti (without sauce) slightly on the phase 3 through 6 side. 🙂

  19. One advantage of boring weather is that I got the manger and most all extension cords in. I’ll end up leaving lights on the bushes each side of the front steps so if it ever does snow We can turn them on

    1. Nate & I got everything from outside done on Sunday. We gradually decreased the lights between January 7 & 10 in the house windows (which we switched to white from the traditional December red on January 1). And now this week, my den room on the 2nd floor where I spend most of my time has 5 windows and I’m shutting off one bulb each day until Friday there’s one final one left. Down my mom’s she normally has a few windows she has white lights on all year anyway (except red at Christmas time with the rest of them) so those will be lit as of this weekend. Nate & I have to take down all the inside decorations between now & Sunday. We planned in advance for that.

      This year I’m renewing & expanding a tradition of putting some lights in my larger kitchen window for other holidays . The lineup looks like this…

      The white light countdown through mid January.
      Pink mini lights for February.
      Green mini lights & maybe a couple green window candle bulbs for March until the equinox.
      A pastel mix mini set for spring (late March into May including for Easter).
      A red white & blue set from late May to mid September to cover Memorial Day, Flag Day, Independence Day, & Patriot Day (9-11).
      An orange set late September through October, and of course maybe adding some other colors like darker green purple that seem to have become associated with Halloween. My mom also has me put plastic pumpkins over her outdoor lights for Halloween along with some other decorations.
      I think the biggest change coming for this year is returning the Christmas candles to the windows in the entire house in early November and starting out with white lights to light up an otherwise dark months heading toward Thanksgiving, and then switching them all to red between Thanksgiving & December 1 when it will be time to light up everything for Christmas once again. 🙂

      Nate is totally into this stuff now. We’re adding a bit more each year it seems. The neighbors are loving it. 😉

      1. I love it. Though 2020 has stunk on so many levels, one thing that came out of it good was that I with my family that I otherwise probably would not have been if I decided to stay on St. Thomas. I was able to do many of the Christmas stuff that we tend to do as an immediate family, some of this is decorating the outside with my Dad and sometimes brothers but I am the constant. We work on the village as well. which is different every year.

        1. I always like when something good can come out of a negative situation. I’m glad you had extra time with the family and that you have your traditions…

          Nate has already vowed that all the long-standing traditions (including everything my mom has always done) will not be going anywhere. He’s pretty much taken over with my blessing. When we were outside the other day I dubbed him “the youngest head of the decorating committee we’ve ever had in the family”. 😉

      2. That is awesome I like the idea of lights. I put a HOPE candle in the window when covid bp started. It will continue to burn for all impacted. My inside decorations are all up. I really am in no hurry. I’m sad that this country put a cloud over little Christmas. But our wisemen still arrived at our manger just the same. Tomorrow, my oldest grand will help put the manger away. He is 13 and this is his 13th year helping.

        My son was always into helping like Nate is. He has his first home this year and has the dickens village we always put up together and then sat back and just watched as we imagined the characters strolling around. I love that Nate is continuing the traditions. Especially your moms.

  20. TK – It is great to read Nate is into some of the same crafts, hobbies, and likes that you have. You will both share those for years.

    As for weather – WXW is spot on. Nothing about this pattern or potential pattern stands out as significant to me and it has been kicked down the road and moderated.

    Right now my best guess for potential widespread accumulating snow in SNE would be 1/21-1/22 time frame.

    I get a kick out of all the online prognosticators of cold and snow posting GFS output when it shows the outcome they want, because for the most part they are the same people who publicly flog that model most every chance they get.

    1. I’m still waiting for someone’s guarantee of a harsh winter starting right at Christmas to come true. Oops!

      They said the same thing last year too, btw…
      (Not a meteorologist.)

      1. At least he was not a met, even if he pretends to be one online. Annoyance to me; The number of mets who have breathlessly posted or even used during broadcast, the model run that shows the looming pattern change bringing east coast storminess, all the while being swallowed whole by the abominable polar vortex, of course not noting the timing, if not the actual evolution of the impactful weather outcomes were contradicted by the model run prior or other guidance.

        I feel fortunate to be fascinated by all kinds of weather, synoptic conditions and pattern evolution, so as to not have to root for a particular outcome.

        1. As you know I am equally fascinated by all kinds of weather. Just today, looking at the visible satellite at the little swirl of clouds moving ESE toward our area, to pass by overnight tonight. It just looks SO COOL! So what if it’s not going to produce a snowstorm? It’s a weather event that looks really awesome on satellite and I’m enjoying following it there. 🙂

          I feel that this year more than any other, as a meteorologist, I have learned not to latch onto any model runs, even if they show the same thing for several runs in a row. That knowledge has been paying off… Science at work!

          1. Just looked at on the black and white satellite, still my preferred satellite option.

            And thanks for the tip. Very cool!

  21. Ha!

    Blasting the GFS for sucking one day and then posting a run of it showing a snowstorm the next? I would never even think of doing something like that!!!

  22. 10 years ago today in CT the biggest snowfall on record for BDL with 24.0 inches. What a six week stretch that was if you love snow.

Comments are closed.