Wednesday January 13 2021 Forecast (7:38AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 13-17)

The quiet stretch of weather continues for another 3 days, although we have a tiny bit to watch for Thursday as low pressure passing well south of us will be raced by a disturbance passing through here, and their distant connection may help generate a bit of light rain and snow in our area. Finally a more potent system will make its way into the Northeast Friday night and Saturday, first as a broad area of low pressure entering the Great Lakes, and as its frontal system nears the East Coast we’ll see a new low form on it. There should be enough mild air around that the meaningful precipitation from this system falls as rain during the morning and midday hours of Saturday, based on current timing. While the exact track of that low is not nailed down yet, it should be close to or right over southeastern New England, and assuming it’s not moving more slowly than currently expected, we should see a drier end to Saturday, along with more wind, as snow showers stack up in the mountains west and north of our region. Probably should not rule out a stray snow shower making it into the WHW forecast area Saturday night. Sunday, expect a chilly day with a gusty wind but fair weather as low pressure drifts away via the Maritime Provinces of Canada and a sliver of high pressure approaches from the west.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period or two of very light rain and/or snow possible. Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely overnight. Lows 35-42 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast with widespread rain showers morning and midday. Breaking clouds with scattered to isolated rain showers afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind S 10-20 MPH morning, shifting to W with higher gusts afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing snow shower possible, mainly west and north of Boston. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH in the morning, diminishing in the afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 18-22)

Lingering low pressure in the Great Lakes region finally moves eastward through New England while a storm generates offshore, but probably too far offshore for direct impact here on Monday (Dr. MLK Jr. Day), leaving our region with just a chance of snow showers with seasonably cold air. Blocking pattern continues and chilly/dry weather should dominate the middle of next week with any additional disturbances passing to the south, but we may need to watch for an approaching low pressure area by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 23-27)

Still low confidence, but a bit more indication that we’ll start to see the blocking pattern break down, or at least weaken. Watching for potential storm systems to impact the region to start the period, and again late in the period.

13 thoughts on “Wednesday January 13 2021 Forecast (7:38AM)”

  3. Thanks, TK…

    It was 69 degrees a year ago today.

    (Source: Chuck Nolan on 100.7/WZLX, my source for all things weather!!!!! 🙂 )

  6. Thanks TK.

    I don’t recall 1980 😉 but to me this winter has the feel of 2009-2010. The ENSO phase is quite different, but so far this winter has behaved more like an El Nino than a La Nina, though it does look like that will change in the next 2-3 weeks. But that was the last winter that I recall with such a prolonged -AO. It had a very snowy December in SNE, a rather forgettable midwinter, then a historically wet March.

    The questions to me are, will this winter (Feb-Mar) finish like that one did, and will next winter be the 2010-2011 to this winter’s 2009-2010? Obviously much too early to say, but I lean towards yes on both counts. In other words, a forgettable February, potentially above or well above average precip (not necessarily snow) in March, and an early leaning for a colder and snowier winter of 2021-2022.

    Of course, 2010 was also a blistering, historically hot summer as well, so that will also be something to watch as to whether this theory will pan out.

    1. All very interesting ideas and I’m excited to see how it plays out going forward.

      Without applying a lot of meteorology I’d bet money on a colder/snowier 2021-2022 winter, starting early and often. 😉

        2. I can jump on the 2021-22 winter being snowy and cold with a long stretch where the high temps away from the coast don’t get above freezing. My twist is not super early, but rather a no snow steak in November and December that will get the snow freaks restless and pronouncing winter is over. But sometime around Christmas a 5-8 week period of consistent snow events will commence before a fairly sharp shutoff.

  7. Thank you, TK.

    December 1980 was extremely cold; much colder than at any time in December 2020. January 1981 was milder and similar to what we’re experiencing now.

    As I recall, there were very cold periods in early 1979 without much snow, but milder in January and February of 1980.

    I must say the days are nice and sunny this January for the most part, but it definitely does not feel like mid winter. My gripe is this. In summer, we seem to always get lots of hot and humid days from June through August. I’d be okay with that if we also got lots of cold days in December through February. In recent years that has certainly not been the case. I feel like we’re in an extended late fall for the most part, and then in March it will get cold and blustery and not feel at all like spring.

  8. Thanks TK. Where is everyone? My guess either watching a major event or hiding from a major event by enjoying the great weather 🙂 🙂

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