Friday January 15 2021 Forecast (7:34AM)

48 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 15-19)

Very little wind allowed low level moisture to hang around overnight with lots of clouds, but the temperature slipping below freezing in many locations has resulted in some black ice formation where surfaces did not dry off from yesterday’s precipitation, so be aware of that if venturing outside this morning! As the morning goes on we will see the temperature rise sufficiently to eliminate this problem, and enough dry air work in from a small high pressure area to the north of us to bring some sun today. A broad area of low pressure moving into the Great Lakes will send an occluding frontal system our way on which a new low will form and move over the region Saturday morning and midday. This will result in a solid area of rainfall, not that wide, but moderate to heavy, moving across the region from the pre-dawn hours to the midday hours of Saturday, before a dry slot moves in during the afternoon to put an end to the wet weather. A period of moderate and gusty southeasterly winds will take place with the rainfall, so driving will be a little bit of a challenge Saturday morning before conditions improve. A drier, colder westerly wind will evolve after the low’s passage, and snow showers will be occurring in the mountains to our west with only the slight chance that a few of them survive in snow flurry form into the WHW forecast area Saturday night. Expect a dry and chilly day Sunday with a gusty westerly breeze, and similar conditions for Monday, Dr. MLK Jr. Day, with the addition of a snow or rain shower risk a low pressure trough moves across the region. Another small area of high pressure should provide fair and chilly weather Tuesday.

TODAY: Sun and cloud mix. Highs 38-45. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds thicken. Rain arrives west to east toward dawn. Lows 30-37 evening, rising toward 40 overnight. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH evening, increasing to 5-15 MPH with higher gusts coastal areas overnight.

SATURDAY: Overcast into midday with rain, possibly heavy at times. Breaking clouds with scattered to isolated rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind SSE 10-20 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH coast with gusts 35-45 MPH morning, shifting to SW 5-15 MPH midday then W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts again later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing snow shower possible, mainly west and north of Boston. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (DR. MLK JR. DAY): Variably cloudy. Chance of snow and rain showers. Highs 34-41. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 20-24)

What we know: Blocking pattern continues. What we don’t know for sure: Day-to-day details. Best guess on sensible weather: Best storm chance January 22-23, but may be a smaller system if one forms ahead of it offshore on January 20, which is quite possible. This could result in the second system being weaker and further south. Still much to iron out.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 25-29)

Biggest question here: Status of blocking pattern – does it stay in place, weaken, or break down? Still working on that. Because of this uncertainty and normal uncertainty at medium range, can’t get detailed, but can say that expected indices are more indicative of near to below normal temperatures and leaning slightly drier versus stormy at this time.

48 thoughts on “Friday January 15 2021 Forecast (7:34AM)”

  4. Thanks TK!

    Still thinking a healthy 1-2″ of rain with this system. I’m not sure we get much in the way of wind gusts over 40 mph in most areas, and even that may be an upper limit especially away from the coast. Doesn’t strike me as a big wind setup given that it remains fairly cool at the surface. Good snows in the mountains!

    As JMA suggested yesterday and as TK mentions today, the 1/22-1/23 period is looking less interesting to me in terms of winter weather potential as multiple pieces of energy fail to come together. So we will probably kick the can even further down the road on the snow front in SNE. And like TK, I would lean cooler but also drier heading into the end of the month. There’s at least a chance, though it’s far from certain, that we don’t see any significant precipitation events for the rest of the month after tomorrow.

    1. Not in agreement with Pete Bouchard I see….”Next week features a storm…likely of a frozen nature Thu-Fri. Then some sharply colder air. Winter ain’t ova, folks.”

      1. There may be a couple of days/nights next week with flakes in the air, which could produce a coating or two of snow in spots. But often when that happens, it’s a sign that the flow is too progressive for anything more meaningful to come together. I expect that will be the case here, and that we avoid any significant storms.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    My thoughts? blah, blah, blah and more blah, blah, blah

    This hasn’t even been Winter save for a few days in December, which were still technically Autumn!

    PATHETIC!!!!

  6. Thanks, TK. In addition to being a weather source, I discovered this morning that whw also serves as a source for what the heck day of the week it is. 😉

    2. What the hell day of the week is today?????? I dunno. I never have a clue what day it is as they are ALL the same to me.

      1. I get that being out of work since 12/2 it’s like what day is today . I was to go back on 2/2 but unfortunately I’m going back on 1/25 against doctors advice . My short term disability is being slashed in half as little as it was thanks to the new paid family leave that they just conveniently told me about & can take weeks to get approved. Wish I had more snow storms to enjoy while I was out .

        1. Can’t do anything about the snowstorms, but I pray that your healing, and recovery of strength and flexibility, will accelerate so that you’re good to go on 1/25!

          1. Vicki Liberty insurance who has been paying me is saying as of 1/1 Vicki I needed to apply for the new state thing & they will both pay me . I never knew this until this past Monday . The new paid FMLA paperwork could take weeks to approve I’ll already be back . Liberty cut my pay in half this week & said next week even less . I can’t be out of work for for two more weeks getting next to nothing so I’m going back a weeek early .

            1. Isn’t there an HR dept at the hospital that should have notified you. That just stinks. Sorry to Hear it

  11. TK – Any thoughts about the type of weather conditions for next Wednesday in DC? I assume the swearing in ceremony will be outdoors as usual.

    1. With borderline moderate confidence, I expect dry weather and a temperature near or just over 40 in DC next Wednesday. Yes, it’s scheduled to take place outside.

      1. Thanks TK! Hopefully no “other” issues for that transition day. I am looking forward to watching. 🙂

  14. 2020 was the warmest on record worldwide.

    Also, record low arctic sea ice extent.

    Most hurricanes nationwide.

  16. Thanks TK.

    Getting excited for this storm and what the next week has in store for the mountains of NNE. We are heading up to Bromley VT skiing tomorrow, and then Jay Peak next weekend.

    Southern VT is under a WSW now for 8-16″ for an initial thump of snow overnight followed by a significant upslope event tomorrow night and Sunday.

    Up at Jay, it looks to snow pretty much every day through next weekend. GFS has 32″ of snow up there by next Saturday AM. This is a great pattern upcoming for upslope snow along the spine of the Green Mountains. An injection of powder that the ski resorts desperately need.

    So while I am disappointed we aren’t getting much locally (yet), I’m happy to see the pattern finally turn more favorably up north.

    1. 18z op GFS is definitely much colder, but pretty dry. It reflects my leaning in the medium range.

  20. Under a thunderstorm here in NJ right now. Classic instability burst. Figured there was a shot. Sometimes you can get hail with this type of setup but not quite enough instability in this case I think. Temp just under 50.

    1. The instability was showing up nicely on the visible satellite at the end of the day today as it was approaching that area…

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