Unsettled Weather Marks A Temperature Transition

180 Comments

3:15AM

A slow-moving cold front will cross New England today. Waves of low pressure moving northeastward along it will bring showery weather, mainly in the form of rain, through early Thursday, though enough cold air will be moving in for a possible mix with and/or change to snow before the precipitation threat ends.

Colder weather will move in later in the week. A weak disturbance may produce clouds and a few snow showers sometime on Friday. Fair and chilly weather is expected this weekend.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Periods of rain showers. High 55-60. Wind S under 10 MPH shifting NW during the day from west to east.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain showers. Low 40-45. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 45-50. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain, may mix with or change to snow before dawn. No significant snow accumulation. Low 30-35. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with a chance of light rain and snow early then clearing west to east. High 42-47. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated snow showers. Low 28. High 41.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 39.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 42.

180 thoughts on “Unsettled Weather Marks A Temperature Transition”

  1. Thanks TK. Looking over everything just too warm to do much if any problems with snow. We will keep waiting for our first snowfall in the Boston area!

  3. there are 2 major possible tracks for this storm but there is also a third track .
    first track travels to far south to give us much if anything.
    the second track leads the storm to the south of us giving us some rain to last minute snows
    the third has this storm becoming large but quick and will give us some rain and snow to deal with
    right now i do not think we will see accumulations over 2 inches with this storm
    highest amounts will be south of boston away from the coastline but we will see coatings up to 495.

    1. In this case, the trend was not our friend. It trended closer and closer and now
      it will be too close. Perhaps a touch of snow at the end, but that would be about it.

      I saw something on an AccuWeather blog where the met indicated that the
      Southeast Ridge would be so strong that it would eventually force this system
      farther North and West. And sure as bleep, it did!

  11. I’m going for 1 to 2 inches at most N & W of Boston.

    Vicki,

    By the way my predictions are as follows:

    ) inches of snow for the season at Logan-37
    2) date the weather pattern will change-12/18
    3) when the pond by Old Salty’s home will freeze to 1 inch thick.-12/27

    1. Only what falls on the tail end, because UNLESS something changes soon,
      it will be primarily rain with a bit of snow at the very end.

  13. 12z NAM not much different.

    Coast will get ripped off again.

    There’s some decent front-end rain even for ineterior. Key here will be how quickly it flips of course. That accuweather map looks a little generous to me except maybe for elevated areas above maybe 800′ or so. It’ll have to flip quickly to get those kinds of numbers and I just don’t see it still.

  14. The frustrating part is the track is about as perfect as you can get for heavy snow in SNE but just not enough cold air.

  15. I know Hadi, right. There’s no cold high north anywhere in sight which is the problem–Another make your own cold air situation.

    This would normally be a quick 6 or 8 incher any other time.

    I really have no idea what to expect even at my house. At 900′ I figure a few inches is a safe bet but an earlier or later flip will bust the forecast.

  16. It’s always a little tricky at elevation to see when the flip happens…Let us know when it does occur.

  17. Will do.

    I’m going to put a snow board out too becasue I bet we get some pretty decent melting from the warm ground which will screw up the measurement.

  21. Not sure why forecasters continue to tell us that cold air is coming. I keep hearing the same thing over and over again, regardless of the source. Seasonable air is coming, followed by a warm-up followed by more seasonable air. But nothing truly cold or snow-sustainable. Not for while (several weeks at least), folks, really. I’m not a weather expert, but it’s fairly obvious that whatever cold is up in Canada (and admittedly there is some at this point in places like Yellowknife) it is not poised for New England. We would need a significant change in the jet stream for that to occur. So, other than some glancing blows of more December-like weather, we’ve got to sit back and let the mild pattern of play itself out.

    2. The general public is going to react to things relative. So if it’s been very mild and it is suddenly seasonable, to most people it’s going to feel cold, hence the mention of it in a forecast. However, temps may actually drop a little below normal this weekend for a day or 2.

  23. right up the canal on that run

    back end snow usually doesn’t pan out as much as the models point too. too much drying w/nw flow.

  24. So it appears we will have at least 14 days of extremely boring weather with the odds of favoring a lot long than 14 days.

  25. Henry Margusity mentioned that there are several opportunities for snow between now and Christmas, but I would say anywhere inside of I-495 chances are on the “slim” side at this point. With a positive NAO best chances for any significant snow are well into the interior. I just do not see a negative NAO the rest of this year, but I do believe with a new year…new pattern. I am hopeful for January.

    Yes, I am already starting to give up on a white Christmas for this year.

    Also NWS does have a remote possibility for snow first half of Saturday in eastern MA…might actually be our best (if not only) opportunity. We will see.

    1. You will get your snow. Relax there will be plenty. I may be wrong predicting
      snow by mounths end. If I am it would be the first time in 4 yrs december did not have plowable snow for mounth. But my gut tells me trend continues, and also will not see below snow for the winter.

  26. And total redeem myself!!!!

    Friday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

    Saturday: A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

  27. how’d you like to be on the cape flanked by that warm water on all sides. My guess for snow in Chatham is Jan 21, 2020.

  28. Another storm where the coast line is banking on the back end snows, just so much warm air ahead of this thing.

  29. Channel 7 at noon.

    Boston: All rain
    Worcester: Coating – 2″
    Further west and north: 2-4″
    Keene: 5+”

  31. It’s going to be a close call if we see snow on the back end.
    I’m keeping an eye on a possible feature for Saturday.

      1. SATURDAY…
        WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION…THEN WEAK LOW PRES MAY
        FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC AND MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. A FEW MODELS
        EVEN TRY TO PUSH MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE E COAST. FOR NOW…HAVE
        MENTIONED LOW CHANCE POPS FROM ABOUT KMHT-KOWD-KEWB EASTWARD…BUT
        DO NOT HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE WITH THIS. HOWEVER…WITH
        COLDER AIR IN PLACE…ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT
        SNOW EXCEPT ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET. IF THIS DOES
        OCCUR…SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE RATHER QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
        ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR.

  33. Looking at the long range after a short lived cold snap for 3-5 days around Christmas it try’s to warm again around the new year?

          1. Coastal,
            I wouldn’t call it an Eastward shift, however,
            these models DO have the system more to
            the South and East than the more “Trusted”
            models.

            The more trusted models are the ECMWF, NAM, GFS and to a lesser extent the GEM and UKMET.
            After that some would call it garbage time with
            NOGAPS and JMA

            What I don’t understand and perhaps TK could shed some light, is WHY have them at all if they serve no purpose other than amusement?????

            I posted them because it was something to look at and perhaps just perhaps the reliable models
            will show something on the next run.

  35. I’m happy the temperatures will at least be near normal for awhile. Seeing 60 degrees on my thermometer every 2-3 days for the last 3 weeks even unsettles me, and I’m not a global warming alarmist. A problem, however, with this unusually prolonged warm spell is the ocean temperature which has not cooled off as much as it ought to by December 6th. I say this because as a coastal-living citizen of Massachusetts, I know that ocean temperatures have major implications during coastal storms. Even in the event of a benchmark storm sometime in the next few weeks, with a East-Northeast wind blowing over waters that are still in the low 50s, there may be lots of snow in the interior but a mixed bag at the coast. This is why I’m hoping that the city and coast see nighttime temperatures in the low 20s this weekend to further cool the waters, but I’m not buying into it yet. We need a sustained period of North-Northwest wind (with Highs to our north and northwest), something that we definitely have not had in a long, long time. The prevailing wind in November was a Southwest wind, which is most unusual for November. After a cameo appearance of N-NW winds Thursday through Sunday, even next week we’ll mostly be seeing W-SW wind, not the strong N-NW wind we’re accustomed to this time of year.

    1. Stellwagen Bouy: Water Temperature: 49.6 °F (9.8 °C)
      Boston Bouy: Water Temperature: 49.6 °F (9.8 °C)

      I share your concerns!!

      1. Thanks for the more accurate temperature reading. I was thinking it was warmer, more like 50 or 51, so I’m actually pleased it is a bit cooler than I thought.

  36. One more comment, if you will allow me. One of the reasons I did not think this winter would get off to a frolicking start, or even be on the cold side once all was said and done (though I do think we’ll get some major snows in late winter) was the pronounced lack of cold and Northwest wind in September, October (the exception being the pre-Halloween anomaly, but that was just that, an anomaly), right into early November when I threw out my winter predictions for what they’re worth. In snowy years like 1995-1996, but even last year, chilly fall mornings (brisk) and strong Northwest winds are generally the norm. Clearly, this year they were not the norm. I run in the early morning (every morning) and only a few times this fall did I even experience a crisp, sharp chill. That’s unusual and does not bode well for winter, I’m afraid.

  37. Anyone have a link to 12ZEuro at 36 hours? at 48 Hours, tough to tell
    the track it took to get there.

  38. BZ has its map up – D-1 inside 495. 1-3 495 to CT river and 3-6 west of that for a strip and up through Meredith NH and slightly northeast of that – they need it. Any snow for me is Christmas snow at this time of year.

  39. Anyone think the storm is getting stronger day by day that places in interior SNE might end up with more snow bc of the dynamics? It seems we are close a 990 storm which is pretty strong? thoughts?

  42. I don’t know Hadi, I hope you’re right. BIG bust potential here either way. Besides posting all day becasue of my addiction to this site, I’ll post if/when it flips.

    My office is at about 350′, house at 900′ and work collegue at 1,100′. you’d be amazed at the difference with these marginal storms over just a few miles.

    NAM time now! Hope it doesn’t get warmer still. Correct me if I’m wrong but didn’t the GFS show this about a week ago as a Hudson river runner before losing it out to sea only to come back close and warmer in the end.

  44. Right now some models are still disagreeing. I think i will wait to put out snow predictions until after next models that come outh this evening.
    expect winter storm watches to be put into an effect either tonight or tomorrow.
    I still think this could change but it seems like this storm is getting to be stronger and also a tad longer to get out of here. highest amounts probably will be in the high terrain of centeral mass and the berkshires.with the lowest on the cape.

  47. there’s just so much warm air ahead of it….uugggghh!

    ok, back to the model run….be back in a minute

  52. Looks like fair amount of backside snow, even for Boston.

    Would like to see the 18Z GFS and of course, this evening’s 0Z runs.

  53. ok, so I’m feeling about the same…..not great…

    if only there were a little dry air with lower dewpoints ahead of it we’d be golden. moist air with higher dewpoints ahead of this=bare lawns.

    the overall storm(s) still has the look of a string of pearls on the front doesn’t it.

  55. The 850 temps seem cold on the back edge, while the surface temps are margingal.
    This is worth taking a look at…
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20111206%2F18%2Fnam_namer_036_sim_radar.gif&fcast=036&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&cycle=12%2F06%2F2011+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=80&nextImage=yes

    1. Exactly. No fron end snow, but clearly this thing wants to bomb out
      once it passes East of us. How much snow it throws back is the issue at hand.
      NAM is projecting fair amount.

  56. be careful getting hopes up on back-end snows. I mean, how many storms have we all seen over the years where radar echos fizzle right out once the low gets to that lattitude.

    Downsloping winds from the W/NW dry up radars real fast.

  57. way too many and I have noticed that that the NAM historicaly gives us too much QPF on the back side of the storm.

    1. Yes, but ALL of the models are showing backside qpf.
      Are they all wrong? Could be, but I suspect they are onto to something.
      We shall see.

  58. Winter Storm Watch posted for Northeast NJ. I would not be surprised if parts of the interior of SNE particularly have some sort of winter weather alert.

  61. Work is so busy, I wish I could participate more ! I am reading your comments above…..can someone give a brief synopsis on what is now expected ? I’m getting the idea of a bigger storm and what is the idea of its track and timeframe ? Thanks !!!

  62. Hear ya on the flooding but since the ground isn’t frozen and drains aren’t blocked by snow, we can probably handle the rain except for maybe the urban areas as you mention.

  64. alright guys, I’ll check in later…….

    I have to try and get some work done at least for the last hour!

    Bottom line Tom is that you’d better hope for an early Christmas mircle if you want snow from this one unless you’re 50-75 + miles outside of Boston.

  65. Correct me if I’m wrong, but backlash snow doesn’t usually pan out the way it gets depicted on the models.

  66. Had a chance to read Taunton NWS…….the low is tracking closer to the coast. The models continually overstate how fast the NAO is going to drop and understate the strength of the SE Ridge. Still out 36hrs, it will be interesting to see if the track verifies even further North and West, like over southeast Mass or even Providence to Boston.

  67. i would not be surprised if areas outside of 495 get som good amount of snow of advisory level at least. The nam has been pointing to a good amount of water in the form of snow.for areas outside of 495. I am thinking 8 to 1 ratio. it will be a heivy wet snow. It will also take a while for it to accumate do to the warm not frozen ground . It will cause a mess for the morning commute. on thursday.Sorry i have to put a smile in here because now wachusset has a chance of opening this up coming weekend 🙂 gfs is saying something different. i will wait until tomorrow and see what this front does. it will all depend on what the front does . a little bit further south will actually mean more snow for central and eastern sections. a track really far east will create ligher amounts and a further track to the west will create even less for eastern mass but more for the berkshires and snow for ski country.

  68. I’m happy for the ski areas. They will get some snow, probably around 6-8 inches in spots, particularly the higher up, of course. But, please don’t get your hopes up about Boston or even Metro West. Boston may see backside snow showers, but the temperatures will not support any accumulation at all. In fact, it’ll be in the mid 30s early Thursday morning. The Natick-Framingham area will see a quick inch or so of fast melting snow, nothing to write home about. I am seeing some beautiful (sunny), more seasonable conditions Thursday through Sunday.

  69. I know its early in December, but thru the 5th, Logan is at +5.6F for the month and that does not include todays 61F and 49F. If the cold front does not make it through by midnight tonight, that will probably get reporting stations highs (Wednesday) in the 55F to 60F range, even though during the day tomorrow, temps will be falling.

    Already 2 days of 60+ and I think there will be additional mild to warm episodes this month. I thought November’s 5+ F anomoly was the peak, but maybe not.

  70. Even on the 18z NAM, back edge from Eastern MA to Nova Scotia in 6 hours? Don’t get too excited about significant snow.

  71. 18z GFS continues to show that back end precip.
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20111206%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_045_1000_500_thick.gif&fcast=045&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&cycle=12%2F06%2F2011+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

  73. I hate to agree due to my love of snow but this is not in the cards for eastern sections. Just not gonna happen unless I go buy a snow maker and then it might not even work bc its not cold enough at any time in the next 10 days:)

    1. We’ve had them for several years around here in November & December. The
      Winter Moth. You can thank Europe and there will be less next season.

  75. Something is wrong with this picture. I’m
    Sitting on couch looking out livingroom window at the Christmas lights. I might have a martini in hand :). BUT the windows are wide open and a million moths are circling the lights On the reindeer by the window. Oh snd im in a tee shirt Are we in SC or new England

    1. On a rare, cold night a few days ago, a few moths were by the light and they were trying to get into the crevaces of the house. I guess they must have been frozen. I must admit I feel little sympathy for them. As everyone else is sayingm there’s a ton of them by the light tonight.

      1. I was feeling badly for them too. My husband is a bit nervous I would invite them inside. My mom did that with ladybugs one year. By spring our attic was infested.

        1. vicki were the ladybugs red or orange. There were alot of the orange one the past few years as they are not native to the area

  77. There just seems like many more later but maybe not, I wonder if they will be around for Christmas ? 🙂

  78. Who knows but they are loving these temps. I remember they were here until about the middle of the month last year.

    1. There will be some, but less. They tend to cycle. But their larvae did a number on the trees the past 2 seasons which means the trees will now put out leaves with a toxin in them and many of them will die next season. Same thing happens in the Gypsy Moth cycle.

  80. Good call Hadi…I actually built a snow gun about five years ago. I think I’ll dust it off and spray just a bit right before Christmas. One 25 degree night with low dewpoints will do it.

        1. No worries there Tom, I went under for Logan this year at 29 inches. Wait….I might just need to make some there to even get to 29! I forget, but I think someone picked 27 inches.

  81. Just for those that might be interested – here is the latest satellite loop of the the eastern usa.

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-vis.html

    Due to my lack of knowledge I can’t say much. But looking at it, it seems to me that the heaviest precip. will be more south than north. That is, SNE rather than western MA. I am probably very wrong but will give it a try. And my guess on what kind of precip. – can only take a guess that it will be more snow to the west and occasional heavy rain south and east. I have been reading all the posts here and trying to understand and I think that that is what most of you are saying. And I do believe that any snow we get, especially in EMA won’t be that bad on the roads as it has been so mild.

      1. Pretty cool loop rainshine !! Can see a strip of snow in the midwestern states, some snow starting to cover portions of east central Canada and a classic look of a southeast US Ridge.

  82. last model runs have less than 2 inches for most of mass besides for the high terrain of worchester county and northwest mass where 2-6 inches could fall.
    again it will depend on what the front does but thats what i see. Im basing this of the nam and gfs. nam is showing alot more but the gfs is saying really little so i am going in between them.

    1. I don’t think anyone will come in over 3 inches from this event except possibly the top of Mount Monadnock.

      1. I would agree with that statement. The low is tracking closer to the coast dragging in more warm air.

  83. Lot of key ingredients missing on this one to make it a big time snow event. I still think will 2-3 good Noreaster’s this winter.

  85. That spring like feel will change this weekend and will actually feel like December.
    I am done with the yard work and I want the snow to start up again.

    1. For now, I have to admit to enjoying the warm weather. Tomorrow is December 7th and I’m not feeling burned out on winter at all. I know that sounds crazy, but by mid to late February, snow and cold just wears on my spirit when it starts early in the season. But this weather has been so easy. So now, if winter snow and cold happen in January and February, I might have a chance to enjoy it instead of being sick of it. I dont know if that makes any sense.

      1. I was thinking the same thing today. Again left for work at 5am just wearing a sweatshirt. I do think we will see are fair share of snow in those two mounths Tom and than maybe an early spring. I still believe we get a plowable storm the last two weeks of December, my gut tells me strongly this will happen.

        1. Hi John.

          Yes, I think the morning part of this weather pattern is what I enjoy the most. Just not adding a lot of prep time to an already busy morning.

        2. I also am in the thinking that when the cold and snow come it is coming in later so maybe winter will feel like it was quick. I have only had to wear a jacket at work once so far. Did not need it for fall and November and not now. As we get cold this week as Tk said it won’t be bone chilling cold. Like I said though I do think we pay the price but maybe for not that long.

  86. Looks like a no-go for any snow in Boston, at least this time around. I guess I should be happy about all the money being saved on my heating bill! For now, I’m looking for a good cold snap to get rid of those nasty slugs for the season! As for the winter moths, until the parasitic fly take hold, looks like we’re in for another season of being inundated by the ugly gray (color of dirty snow) moth.

  87. Heading off for the night. As we draw closer to the Wednesday night storm, I have a feeling it will track even further north and west and that the models will begin to show this later tonight/tomorrow thanks to the Southeast Ridge. Maybe a track over Plymouth, even Boston??, with the Cape and Islands getting back into the warm sector after briefly leaving the mild wx tomorrow. Good news for ski country though.

        1. With any luck. Certainly for north country. I remember only one year that we went to north Conway after Christmas that there wasnt any snow. Maybe 1966ish. And that was before any real snow making. There was just always snow and skiing

      1. Thats great TK. I do think this will happen as this has been the case the last 4years. That falls right into my gut feeling of the last two weeks of December, I will bet anything this plowable event happens. It just can’t happen Xmas day as I would havto work the storm.

  94. i am happy that the ski areas are getting some snow and they will be able to make a bit of man made snow . so they can open the trails. only a few places are open and its almost the second weekend wachusset says that they will not be opening until the 17th at the earliest but that was on monday they said that maybe they change

      1. sorry i should have added that i have been making a sleeding hill for the younger children to use and i try to start it as early as i can. I have always attempted to make man made snow so i could start it earlier, but have failed. this is too the person that has a snow maker . How do you make it?

  96. Tomorrow I will re-tell the story I told on the WBZ Blog last year about my friend’s home-made snow gun. Remind me.

    Updating blog now…

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