Sunday January 17 2021 Forecast (8:10AM)

64 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 17-21)

Many times we talk about a “break in the action” in reference to a short quiet period of weather in the middle of an active stormy pattern, but this time we had the opposite, a short-lived stormy period, i.e., one important storm system moving through yesterday, and now it’s back to a quiet pattern in which only minor disturbances cause minimal precipitation chances but otherwise it remains generally dry. The blocking pattern we’ve been in now for about a week will remain in place. The difference this time is it adjusts itself enough to allow a trend to colder weather here – not the brutal cold that much of Asia & Europe have seen in recent days, but a trend to a near to below normal temperature pattern.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind W 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-40 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY (MLK JR. DAY): Partly sunny. Chance of a passing rain or snow shower. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing snow shower. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing snow shower. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 22-26)

Blocking continues. A weak system may produce a few snow showers early in the period. We will watch for a storm system to survive a little better as it approaches later in the period, but it’s far too soon to have any certainty on this threat.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 27-31)

Jury’s out on blocking. We may see it weaken or even break down, although odds still favor seasonably cold to slightly colder than normal and on the drier side. It’s a very low confidence outlook and will continue to monitor the pattern drivers.

64 thoughts on “Sunday January 17 2021 Forecast (8:10AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    What a difference 6 hours make. Consider the 0Z GFS and the 6Z GFS.

    0Z GFS

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021011700/234/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021011700/240/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    6Z GFS

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021011706/228/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021011706/240/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    Why even bother running these modes out beyond 4 or 5 days????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

  3. Thanks, TK.

    Strange not watching the Patriots last night. They usually were the Saturday night primetime game during the Divisional Playoff weekend. Their Snow Bowl/Tuck Rule game was January, 19, 2002, 19 years ago this weekend.

    They’ll be back. In their place, I am rooting for Buffalo.

  4. Just check and a few crocuses/snowdrops have pushed through the ground and made an appearance! 🙂

    1. Thanks Doc. Should be a fantastic webinar.
      I have about 3 questions/discussion points lined up, IF we are allowed to ask? Will find out. 🙂

      1. I know the topic he’s talking about doesn’t have anything to do with climate change but a tweet like this gives me pause. I was curious what you and others thought of it or if I’m just being too critical…

        1. Well if he really believes this comment:

          Not sure I’ll ever understand how this is not perceived as good news for life on earth..
          easier to survive at +30º than 0º C

          Then he is clearly missing something and does not understand (or is burying his head in the sand) the ramifications of a warming Earth.

          If this is what you mean, then I am totally in sync with you.

            1. Dr. S, as a (much too avid) Twitter user myself, you are correct in all your assumptions. He is in the denialist camp, though masks it through snark and sarcasm at times. It’s sad to see people like Tim come out on the wrong side of the climate change debate. He seems like a good guy, and I’ve met him a couple times, but it’s hard to respect a blatant science-denial stance.

  7. I’d like to see the winner of today’s Tampa Bay / New Orleans game go all the way. It would not bother me at all to see the Bills win it all either.

    I am NOT with the folks who see TB as a “traitor”. Look up the word. Brady didn’t betray anybody. He made a decision and a whole bunch of people decided that the 20 years he gave us was suddenly lower on the priority list than calling him some stupid name that doesn’t even apply.

    Whatever flips your chocolate chip I guess….

    😀

    1. Totally agree. Brady is NOT a traitor. He’s simply the best there ever was at his position. Made a decision in his best interest.

      By the way, after a few really good games last Saturday, since last Sunday the games have been putrid. Unwatchable blowouts for the most part. I don’t care who wins at this point, but if I invest time in watching a game I want to see something resembling close competition.

    2. I’m rooting for Tampa Bay. But wait…people think he is a traitor? I can think of at least one that fits that Bill but it ain’t Brady.

      1. It’s sad Vicki how many FB posts I have seen trashing the man, just because he left the Pats & went to TB. I don’t understand it. I’d love to see him add another ring to his collection. 🙂

        1. Good grief. He owes us nothing. And frankly It was nothing that sadly had him looking elsewhere. We owe him two decades. But then my view of Boston fans is well known

      1. I have a little love affair with Buffalo but I think it might have to do with lake-effect snow squalls. 😉

        1. I am rooting for a KC vs. TB Super Bowl. I have no problem with TB-12 winning a seventh ring in the least.

          Would he be the only NFL QB in history with that many rings?

        2. Any affection I have for the Bills goes back to Jim Kelly.
          I used to think he was awesome.

          Doesn’t hurt that I have actually been in the city of Buffalo before and your comment about Lake Effect snow doesn’t hurt either.

  8. Thank you, TK.

    Much of Europe is indeed being impacted by real winter, while we continue our prolong.ed stretch of what I would characterize as late autumn weather. Doesn’t feel like winter at all. Birds are quite active. There is no ice cover anywhere. And that’s really the story across most of the Lower 48. If this was a brief period I wouldn’t be surprised, but it’s been a very long period of this kind of bland and mild weather.

    1. We’ve had a handful of these. But keeping in mind it’s still rather early and a lot of things can happen between now & the end.

      This is actually a good lesson that we can be (as we have been for a while now) in a not-cold and fairly dry pattern WITHOUT a Southeast ridge and WITH a blocking pattern. You have to take into account all pieces of the puzzle when figuring out the pattern.

      Like WxW, I still await the appearance of that SE ridge, but that is not a 100% guarantee either with a La Nina, and as you see, it’s already fooling some forecasters, myself included, by not showing up when we expected it to initially. We’ll see now if it actually shows up sometime soon, if at all, to any significant degree. At this point, while I still expect it to show itself for February, I won’t hold my breath either.

      I stand by my on-the-limb March prediction at this point.

          1. Oh my. I like J.W. but is it ever too soon to say that! This is January 17. Spring is 2 months away. If we stay dry the rest of January (and we very well may) and February ends up mild/dry as I suspect it may (pending the transition period’s results), and with the uncertainty of March being pretty far away still, we stand a better shot of entering spring with dry ground as opposed to wet.

  11. I’ll be rooting for TB over NO tonight but NO has got the best of them twice this season . Look for a shootout with these two incredible veteran quarterbacks. Winner plays GB for the Super bowl .

  13. Thanks TK !

    I am rooting for the Bucs ….. this is nothing against Brady, I´d like a GB vs KC Super Bowl or Rodgers vs Mahomes

  15. Thanks TK! I think we are pretty much on the same wavelength as usual. Long story short, a quiet and seasonable week ahead. Not that long of a story I guess 🙂

  16. There are a few mets out there that deny anthropogenic climate change Tim is one of them.
    In terms of the nfl playoffs. I hope its the Bills and Browns in the AFC Championship, two teams that have had a rough 20 years that have loyal fan bases. Heck the Bills lost 4 superbowls they have been in, so if they win, it will be huge for them. I feel bad they probably won’t have a celebration after the superbowl due to Covid.
    In terms of the NFC it seems like its the battle of the old guard. Brady, Brees and Rogers. The AFC has gotten young while the NFC are the old dogs. It is likely Bree’s last season and him going into the sunset with a ring would be a nice end to his career. I respect Bree’s a bit more than I do Brady. I started loosing respect for Brady a few years before he even left the Patriots. With that said I believe him to be the GOAT QB. I just hope that when he decides to hang up the cleats that he is given the ability to retire as a patriot like other high end players have done. He will always be a patriot.

  17. Thanks TK.

    Killington up to 21″ on the storm now as of this morning and the snow has continued to come down all day. Will be very interested to see what they end up with.

    This storm was just what the ski areas needed. Big dump up front yesterday and now cashing in on upslope snow today. Ropes dropping left and right and many areas approaching or at 100% open now. Different world up there!

  19. Judah Cohen
    @judah47
    5h

    The GFS ensembles showing a fairly robust signal for a #PolarVortex split with major daughter over Asia and minor daughter vortex over the Eastern US. This is potentially an interesting development & if it is still predicted tomorrow, I will likely discuss it in tomorrow’s blog.

    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1350808980965175299?s=20

    Judah Cohen
    @judah47
    5h

    Both the US & Canadian weather model ensembles show a good signal for #snow in the Mid-Atlantic & Northeastern US for the end of January, though the timing is a little different. At least something to watch.

    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1350807907064020999?s=20

  21. CPC going for normal temps and precip in New England as we head into the first half of February. I’m still skeptical that a dominant SE ridge ever materializes this winter. We are running out of time for it to rear its ugly head.

    NWS Climate Prediction Center
    @NWSCPC

    Today’s Weeks 3-4 outlook sees odds generally increased for a north/south split of below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation in the North, and above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation across the South.

    https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1350181718955708416?s=20

    1. FWIW their week 3-4 outlooks have not been that great for a while.

      I have slight doubts about the strength & length of the SE ridge, but we will have a period of it.

  22. TK is bullish on winter’s late resurgence in March. TK is usually right. What are the Vegas odds on >10 inches of snow in Boston in March this year? I’m not a betting man, but maybe I should put some money down.

    1. If you look ahead at indices and make reasonable forecasts based on expectation….. odds are against me being right. But I have my reasons for sticking with it. 😉

  23. Technically speaking, Eric is incorrect, at least for Boston/Logan:

    Average for January = 13.0”
    Average for February = ~11.2”

    1. Eric is only “incorrect” using old data, i.e., the 1981-2010 30-year normals, otherwise he’s right. During the last decade, February has been far snowier in Boston than January has been, especially during the last 6 years, when Boston’s February average is nearly double January’s. Granted, this is skewed by 2015, but when it comes down to it, stats are stats, and if you want to go by more timely information, February is currently Boston’s snowiest month on average.

  24. Total snowfall @ Logan to date = 17.5”

    2019-2020 = 15.8”

    March would have to go totally bonkers with snowfall to get to near normal (43.8”). Even two feet won’t quite do it “technically”.

    26.3” 😉

    1. That’s assuming we go snowless for the next 6 weeks which most likely ain’t gonna happen. I’d wager that by mid February, Boston is near or over 30″. Would literally only take one storm.

    2. Boston is not going snowless for 6 weeks. Trust me on that. They’ll end up with somewhere between 8 and 20 inches between now and the end of February. Broad range, yes, but I’m talking about 6 weeks of time.

  26. The GFS Ensemble forecast for MJO does not leave any of the 8 phases untouched. How’s that for a solid forecast? 😉

      1. It just means that when all the different members of the ensemble are run, they vary so much that some of them take the MJO to phase 1, some of them take it to phase 2, some to phase 3, etc etc …

        MJO phases 7, 8, & 1 tend to favor snow early in the winter.
        MJO phases 8, 1, & 2 tend to favor snow later in the winter.

        But there is no solid indication it’s going into any particular phase over the next 2 weeks, based on that. The ECMWF’s runs have been even less telling, keeping the MJO as a nearly non-factor.

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