Monday January 18 2021 Forecast (7:43AM)

33 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 18-22)

Today will be the mildest day of the week before we start a colder trend. Don’t look for an arctic blast though. This will be a gradual process as the large scale features shift to a allow a little more cold into the Northeast than we have seen for the entire month so far. The weather pattern will still be active, but quiet. How is that possible? Active but quiet? Yes. About 3 disturbances will pass by, one today, one later Tuesday to early Wednesday, and another Thursday, but none of them will result in any meaningful precipitation. That is how we can be active but quiet. 🙂

TODAY (MLK JR. DAY): More sun than clouds morning. More clouds than sun with a risk of a passing light rain or snow shower during the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH with a few higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing snow shower. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing snow shower in the morning. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 23-27)

Blocking continues. Colder, dry weather is expected for the January 23-24 weekend. There is a storm threat in the January 25-27 window but it is too soon to know any detail.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

Blocking may weaken or break down. Will have to watch for additional storm threat, but odds favor cold/dry weather.

33 thoughts on “Monday January 18 2021 Forecast (7:43AM)”

  2. Thanks TK!

    Awhile ago I mentioned to watch for a pattern change involving the Southeast ridge around 1/25. Might that end up right on the button? Looks that way in most of the guidance this morning, not to say the guidance has been gospel. The ridge looks a little west-based versus the mean, which makes sense with a continued west-based -NAO. And if most of the overnight guidance is right, its first act will be to put a stop to any potential snow event in that 1/25-1/27 timeframe.

    A rather extreme plunge in the PNA is also coming, which is likely a big contributor in jump-starting the Southeast ridging process. The West Coast is about to go from record heat and unseasonably dry weather to much colder and wetter. That usually does not translate to cold in the East…

  4. Matt Noyes (NBC -10) has snow on days 9-10 (1/26-27). Let’s see if Pete has it later this afternoon/evening.

    This is why I wish all stations had 10-day forecasts.

    1. TK – now the only forecaster who uses those initials that I fully respect lmao!

      Love it. Hmmm, I wonder who the other forecaster was
      with initials TK???? 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. Yes that’s who I meant. lol. Jpdave was being cheeky since we discussed yesterday that Tim is a climate change denier and says global warming is a hoax.

    2. Note that NBC 10 has next week’s potential snow event for days 9-10 as well as Matt Noyes notes.

      Thanks Dr. S.

  17. Logan is now officially below normal in snowfall for the first time all season.

    Total to date = 17.5”
    Total normal to date = 17.6”
    Departure from normal = -0.1”

    1. That October snow (4.3”) contributed greatly to keep it going as long as it did along with the mid-December snow event. Oh well.

  19. 00z Euro delivering a significant snowstorm to the mid Atlantic and Northeast around 1/26 with another one approaching on 1/29. The 1/26 system delivers 6”+ Pike south.

    Still a ways out but the models have been pretty consistent with a threat in this time period.

    2. Actually yesterday’s 12z ECMWF was a miss and today’s 06z GFS is pretty much a miss.

      So consistency isn’t what we’re seeing from the guidance other than putting a storm somewhere near the East Coast. It keeps wavering by several hundred miles, which is not really a surprise, to be honest.

    3. Mark nice solid game by the Isles goalie! He didn’t have to stand on his head but the B’s couldn’t get anything by him.

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