Tuesday January 19 2021 Forecast (7:26AM)

50 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 19-23)

The next 3 days will show a cooling trend as a couple disturbances in a west northwesterly air flow bring only minor snow shower threats but serve to bring in colder air from Canada. We may moderate slightly on Friday ahead of a cold front which will arrive by evening and introduce even colder air by the weekend.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Late-day snow showers, especially west of Boston. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers in the morning. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 34-41. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of a snow shower evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 24-28)

Dry/cold January 24 as high pressure builds just north of the region. Watching for a storm threat in the later January 25 to early January 27 time-frame as low pressure likely passes to the south of our area, but uncertain on how close it will be. Dry/cold for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)

Still a lot of uncertainty in the overall pattern though still leaning toward a weakened blocking pattern but weather that is mostly on the dry side with a cold start and then a possible moderating trend.

50 thoughts on “Tuesday January 19 2021 Forecast (7:26AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Why am I not excited about snow chances through the next 2 weeks or longer????

    2. Because even though you don’t want believe it you’ve been listening to WxW’s explanation of the pattern. 😉

      Snow chances are there, but they are not great. There is enough of a signal for early next week not to ignore it. But at the same time it’s not a “classic” set-up either. If we snow out of that, it may end up being an elongated thing we just happen to be close enough to, or some kind of norlun / or hybrid gets involved.

      1. Matt Noyes this morning seemed quite confident for Monday night into Tuesday. Even Pete yesterday was as well. Also the Ch. 7 met this morning “looked ahead” and showed a future model. All snow for SNE tracking just south from due west to east, not the typical nor’easter off NC tracking northeast off the Cape.

        2. Pete also went in pretty hard for snow this Thursday/Friday about 7 days out…doesn’t look like anything’s happening there!

      2. Yes, the pattern sucks. I know that.
        At the very least, we had one good storm in December.

        We shall see.

        Not impressed with next week’s signal. Hope I am WRONG!

        I see nothing but the Suppression Blues.

  2. Good morning and thanks, TK.

    I’m looking east out of an upstairs window at a rainbow segment. I’ve never seen one so near to where the sun is — usually the sun is more or less behind me when I spot a rainbow. My husband noticed it while driving on Rte 2 and was captivated, so he let me know!

  3. Thank you, TK.

    Under the radar streak is now at 29: That’s 29 (!) consecutive days with above normal temperatures. The record was 33 and happened just 5 years ago. I don’t think we’ll break that record, but we’ll come close.

    What’s remarkable is the lack of cold at night, especially given that we’ve had our fair share of northerlies and clear nights.

    I saw large flies outside yesterday. I also have little bugs in my apartment – drain flies – which normally occurs starting in April. But there hasn’t really been a killing frost, or at least not a sustained one.

    All in all, this winter is thus far a great big dud. I do realize there’s plenty of winter left. But, not much January left, and I’m not exactly encouraged by what I see long-term.

    Also, you’ll notice massive temperature differentials between Quebec City and Boston. QC always has winter (cold and snow), even when there isn’t all that much cold around. In recent days there’s been at least a 20 (degree) difference, sometimes greater than that. Keep in mind QC is less than 400 miles from here on a straight line.

  4. Thanks TK. Another fairly quiet few days ahead, but some passing snow showers possible as you mention. Maybe a locally heavier squall tomorrow morning.

    I do see a scenario where SNE, or even areas further south, could get snow or mixed precip early next week. The cold high to the north is a big plus. We’ll start to see that Southeast ridging building in, but it’s fairly low amplitude for now. Systems can basically “slide” right over the nose of it, which could even still leave them south of SNE. However, in its lower amplitude state the ridge is going to keep the flow very fast over the top of it, which is going to try to stretch and shear systems out. We’re seeing that on a lot of the guidance. This will probably preclude any “big” storms along the East Coast, but leaves the door open for one or more light to moderate events next week.

  6. Those maps that JPDave posted above was just the scenario the Ch. 7 met showed this morning. Not really the typical “east coast storm.” I would say a moderate event at most.

    3-6/4-8” potentially??

  12. I would not get discouraged. Yesterday 12z EURO run had Virginia with accumulating snow from that early week system. Today the 0z EURO has accumulating snow in SNE. These models are going to go back and forth.

  14. Hi everyone!
    A few afternoon thoughts….
    Well, nothing really “new” to be perfectly honest.
    Yes, there is a “window of opportunity” for early next week, but odds favor suppression versus moving straight into New England. This is the pattern described by the WHW mets recently. I’d not be confident about a hit next week based on a couple of model runs. Meteorological analysis of the pattern says, while getting an accumulating snow event is certainly not out of the question, that it is going to be somewhat difficult for the atmosphere to pull that off this far north. But this is meteorology, with inherent uncertainty as we get further out in time, so we’ll be monitoring…

  15. Thank you TK!
    Nice little snow shower coming through at the moment. Whitening up the lawn but that’s about it. Looking at the radar looks to be back filling just a hair, should see it continue for another 20 minutes or so.

  18. Might as well put the snow shovel away for the season…at least until March. 😉

    I was really looking forward to next week’s snow event though. Oh well. 🙁

    2. You go ahead and do that and then let us know how it turns out. 😉 Discounting next week’s window now would be premature. Discounting the entire remainder of January & February? Maybe if this were San Diego…………………… 😉

  19. I’ve noticed that weather language is kind of totalitarian and/or violent: Oppressive heat, suppressed system, bombogenesis, explosive cyclogenesis, severe gale, blocking pattern, etc …

  20. We can’t control the weather, but it’s okay to hope for certain weather types. I hoped and still hope for Arctic cold and a snow blitz this winter. May still happen, but it’s getting less likely. If it doesn’t happen, that’s alright so long as we get a trade-off, a summer with minimal HHH impact. I’m VERY doubtful the latter will happen. But hope springs eternal.

    1. I am a big fan of arctic cold fronts & snow squalls. 🙂

      In fact, I like snow squalls better than snowstorms…

    1. He’s the last hold-out. Ch’s 4, 5, 7, & 25 all had dry, however they all cautioned uncertainty. But to be fair, so did Pete. He just put a different icon on the panel. 🙂

  22. Example of how the models, in this case the GFS, is “confused”. For the 12z & 18z operational runs, follow its track of the initial low pressure system coming out of the Midwest for next week’s threat window. The difference between the 2 runs is about…. 800 miles? Once again, another giant example in models beyond 3 days, as spoken about many times here. 🙂

  24. I also like snow squalls, TK. Maybe you remember this, but in the late 70s (one time in January 1978) we had a major rainstorm followed by an epic Arctic cold front with snow squalls. This was after the big January snowstorm and before the February blizzard. I loved the snowstorms, but was very impressed by the Arctic front that pulled through in the wake of the rainstorm.

    1. That was one hack of a transition. January 26th dawned with heavy rain, strong wind, and temperatures in the 60s, and ended with clear sky after the snow showers and temperatures in the teens, and a biting west wind.

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