Wet Wednesday

111 Comments

1:27AM

The slow transition from abnormally warm to seasonable cold continues. Another wet day will be the result today. There may not be much rain falling at AM commute time, but during the course of the day, it will get wetter, and the PM commute will be a soaker. Some heavy rain will occur during the evening hours. As the wave of low pressure responsible for this races by in the early hours of Thursday, colder air will be coming in, resulting in some snow in higher elevations and a mix with or flip to sleet then snow elsewhere including closer to Boston. This will not be a significant snow event for most areas, with only mountain areas well west and north of Boston seeing any appreciable amounts. The Boston area will see nothing more than a slushy coating of snow early Thursday, with up to 1 inch in the 495 belt.

The express-train storm will be gone by mid morning Thursday with sun returning at that time, along with a gusty breeze and chilly air. A disturbance approaching the region Friday may produce a few clouds but most of them will move in at night and early Saturday, when there may be some snow showers or even a period of snow, before the system moves away. This does not look like an important system.

Dry and seasonably chilly weather will dominate the region on Sunday followed by some moderation in temperature early next week.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Overcast with episodes of rain. Temperature falling from the middle 50s to the middle 40s during the course of the day. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast with rain, heavy at times, mixing with sleet toward dawn, changig to snow around dawn with minor accumulation (under 1 inch unpaved surfaces in some areas and perhaps around 1 inch in the 495 belt). Low 32-37.  Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Snow/mix ending early, rapid clearing following, then sun mixed with passing clouds during the afternoon. High 42-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 25-30. Wind NW 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 41-46. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: AM snow showers. Low 28. High 44.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 46.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 31. High 51.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 35. High 54.

111 thoughts on “Wet Wednesday”

  1. Thanks tk, I think our 1st snow event will happen between Dec 18th-26th, something is brewing itself around that time, will c as its still over 2weeks away, until then it’s a waiting game, have a great day everyone 🙂

  2. Interesting to watch the cooler air come in. Logan’s wind just switched to northeast and the temp dropped several degrees to 52F. Seems like there’s more of a push along the coast than from inland, as Portland, ME is 41F and Concord, NH is 48F.

    I will be interested to see how much of the local area reemergizes briefly back into the warm sector overnight tonight. I think Logan, after dropping through the 40s during the day has a shot of a 2 or 3 hr windshift into the S/SW tonight with temps back up into the 50s as the low could track even just west of Boston. We’ll see.

  3. this storm will give mainly rain to areas across eastern mass and areas south of the pike. with rain amounts of up to 2 inches for everyone in mass.
    might mix in northeast mass with up to an inch being possible.
    outside of 495 and north of 495 we will see up to 2 inches of snow with 2 to 4 inches across the high terrain of centeral mass with 4 to 6 to local 8 inches across the berkshires up into vt and nh. after this storm it will get windy with temps in the 30s through saturday with temps in the 40s next week. something is possible late next week.

  5. It appears after this rain event we will be locked into a dry and cool pattern for the foreseeable future. No real cold or snow chances. Even the 21st event does not look promising on the GFS this morning.

    1. I think it may be a case where the storms pop up with short notice and the long range models don’t pick them up, such as this upcoming storm. There may be some cold shots here and there, but I don’t think we will be seeing 60’s again anytime soon.

  6. smells like snow out there this morning………..not!

    it does smell like the tulip bulbs will be pushing out soon though.

    1. Could not agree more. Not much surprises me, but this stretch of warmth does. Running this morning at 6:45 it really did smell like spring. Not only that, the ground looked April-like, the squirrels too thin for winter (another sign by the way of a serious lack of acorn production this year, which tends to go hand in hand with milder winters, though I acknowledge that’s folklore), and the air was nothing remotely close to a December air-mass. I will be happy if it cools down tomorrow, and it will a bit, but I do not see any sign of consistency in terms of cold or chances for snow in these parts. It’s way too early to speculate on whether winter will essentially bypass us this year, but the signs are not promising for winter people like myself. We’ll have to wait and see.

  9. Reading the accuweather forecast is such a tease. I have been taking notes on their long-range, and every day (without exception) for the last 3 weeks they have changed the date at which the real cold air comes barreling into the Boston area. First it was around 27 November, then that changed to 1 December, 5 December, 10 December, 15 December, and so on and forth. I’m not buying it, just as I did not last winter when they did the same thing in reverse, predicting a lull in winter activity by January 20, then 25, then 30, then 5 February, etc … That lull did not materialize, at least not until much later. I almost feel like the accuweather folks are trying to make us all feel like winter is on our doorstep, when it really isn’t. Maybe (I hope) I’m completely wrong and we do get a taste of winter, including snow, in 10 days time. We shall see.

  11. Coastal that is the front the NWS spoke about for Saturday, they feel that it will not produce much of anything bc the GFS was the only 1 hinting at this.

  13. This site seems to be acting up. Very slow at times. Wouldn’t even load a few times for me. Anyone else experiencing that? Btw, every other website loads AOK here.

    Thanks

    1. OS – I just had trouble loading it. It half loaded and I had to refresh it several times. I thought it was my computer. Odd.

  14. The overall mild pattern remains but I think were done with the 60s. Will see what Saturday brings but it will finally feel like December this weekend.

  16. O.S.

    I have to say that the models pretty much depicted that for days now. Nothing much more than a stalled front with ripples along it.

  17. Imgaine if this tracked to the sweet spot aka the benchmark what kind of snowstorm this could have been for SNE. On to the next potential winter weather maker.

    1. we can watch it, but:

      1. Most likely to stay out to sea
      2. Even if it came up somehow, it would probably be too warm.

  21. Looks like another storm going west of us around Christmas. Very slim chance of any plowable snow this month.

    1. That’s a big if. And if that were to occur, doesn’t mean it would change it, only that it might be possible.

      I don’t think that this one will do the job.

  23. The last and only time Boston received 0.0″ of snow in December was in 1999…very likely to happen for only the second time in December 2011. My bet is that Boston doesn’t even get a trace for the month of December which has happened six times in its 100+ year history of record keeping. I just do not see the NAO going negative at the drop of a hat. The SE ridge strength and intensity was clearly underestimated in earlier long range forecasts.

    Perhaps winter arrives in earnest come January-March? We will see.

    1. With respect I think you are wrong. I am guessing all rain tomorrow but all the tv mets calling for dusting to 1 inch for Boston that would be your trace Philip. As I have said before my gut tells me a plowable event towards the end of the mounth. Last 4 decembers over 100 inches.

  25. John I agree with you about snow. I just think were going to end up below normal for the month.
    The 99-00 winter I believe did not have measurable snow until mid January.

    2. Maybe for the mounth but I still feel near normal or over for snow this winter.
      Jan and Feb will pack a punch, I do not think March will.

  28. Well I already had a good dumping of snow with the Pre Halloween Noreaster. I hope I don’t have to wait till January before seeing snow again.

    1. Down here in Wrentham we only got an inch or 2 that was gone the next day but well north and west where u r got more

  29. Below are the dates for the first and last significant winter weather events for Southern New England.

    1997-1998 December 23 to March 22
    1998-1999 December 24 to March 14
    1999-2000 January 13 to March 17
    2000-2001 December 8 to March 27
    2001-2002 December 8 to March 20
    2002-2003 November 16 to March 6
    2003-2004 December 5 to March 18
    2004-2005 November 12 to March 24
    2005-2006 October 29 to March 2
    2006-2007 February 2 to April 5
    2007-2008 November 20 to March 1
    2008-2009 December 11 to March 9
    2009-2010 December 5 to March 30
    2010-2011 December 20 to April 1st
    2011-2012 October 29 to ????

    1. It’s tough bc some people as close as Taunton didn’t get the oct snow like well north and west did, I actually had to drive to middleboro the following day and they got nothing at all so for some that would go back to last Feb or mar

  31. Thanks Retrac..now only if we could get some dam snow!!! BTW the warning calling for 8-16 inches in Windham county.

  32. From Albany NWS

    ACCUMULATIONS…5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
    BERKSHIRES AND BENNINGTON COUNTY…6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
    THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
    CATSKILLS…AND 8 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN WINDHAM
    COUNTY.

  33. whew! I thought you were referring to 8-16 inches of rain in Windam County Connecticut. I was thinking, no way, what a disaster. Silly me!

    (I grew up in Windham County Ct. which is why I instinctively thought there)

  34. If that low could have tracked a little further south and east we could have brought that accumulating snow into more of SNE. Frustrating that it is so close yet so far.

    1. Thanks, Old Salty, very interesting. I always enjoy looking at the satellite loops.

      I guess that’s why I like looking at doppler radars, too. You can make them move and really see what’s going on. Hopefully, someday, I’ll be able to fully understand the models – they are interesting, too.

  37. The 18Z NAM is in for this system.
    It looks like there will be a changeover somewhere between 4 and 7 AM.

    Here is the 12Z Map:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F07%2F2011+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=018&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    At 9Z, 0C line was very close to the coast, so that is why somewhere between 9Z and 12 Z or 4AM and 7AM.

    The big question is: HOW MUCH moisture will be leftover to precipitate????

    Probably not too much. We shall see.

  39. 70F in parts of Maryland, 60F in southern New Jersey…..somewhere in southeast Mass is going to get a very mild surge of warmth for a few hours overnight. Looks like good snows for the mtns. And relative cool to follow to make snow at night and get some decent bases for the ski industry up north.

      1. Wondering IF after this next wave passes but, there is more of an influx of colder air drawn in to accelerate the changeover??

  40. If we went back 3 to 4 days, I think most models took tonight’s overnight storm and had it pass, in some way, shape or form….southeast of New England. In reality, its coming up over southeast Mass. I think what I will take from this, is that, in the future, if there’s an outlook for a benchmark storm 96 or more hours out, I’m not trusting it this winter. The models will underdo the southeast ridge and the storm will track further inland. I will maintain that philosophy this winter until I see otherwise.

      1. of course, I wont actually remember that logic the next time the models show something going just south of New England. 🙂 🙂 …..It has been a long run (3+ months) of positive NAO. I think when it abruptly switched last February, it had been very negative for close to 5 or 6 months.

  41. That southeast ridge is stubborn and does not want to break down. We have low pressure instead of high pressure at Greenland. To me this is a typical of a weak La Nina.

  42. not seeing much after this storm. there will be temps in the 40s with lows in the 30s and 20s but will be dry through the middle of next week. a possible system could form late next week. another system and another system on the week of chrismas eve or the last week of december.

  45. Would not be surprised if where the yellow’s and reds are just to the east of where it is snowing if that is sleet come down.
    Even have a severe thunderstorm warning right now in North Carolina so this storm system has everything.

  46. From NWS:

    HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS SO
    PROGRESSIVE THAT THE COLUMN MAY DRY OUT BEFORE THE COLD AIR
    REACHES THE COASTAL PLAIN. SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY SNOWFALL SOUTHEAST OF A BDL-ORH-LWM LINE.

    Is that Bradley (Hartford, CT), worcester Ma, Lawrence, MA? Or Lewiston, ME?

  47. Yeah this storm is coming right over se mass, there will be no snow east of 495 , this is of course were most of us live though.

    1. That’s very telling. The summit of Mt. Washington should not be seeing 32F on the evening of December 7th, period (gosh, I’ve hiked to the summit many times in August and seen colder temperatures), but particularly as a snowstorm comes charging through (I do expect the valleys, places like Bretton Woods, to pick up 10 inches of heavy, wet snow). The air behind this system is so marginal it makes it feel like a mid April storm. I’m now pessimistic about Boston seeing 26F or below this weekend. The cold air just isn’t there, and the wind direction is not favorable (it’s all W-SW). Irrespective of La Nina, it’s truly bizarre that we have had so few brisk days with NW winds, and it does not look like we’ll be getting them anytime soon. The latest short-term projections see us hitting 50 again (!) in a few days. That’s ridiculous. The only simile to this pattern is the one we had in late November to mid December 1997, and also most of December 1998 as I recall, or perhaps my memory is failing me.

      2. Very true Joshua, it is extremely out of season…..It just took me by surprise. I guess the cooling aloft is not coming in from the north or northwest, must be coming in from the west. I guess I expected Mt. Washington to be a bit cooler this evening. Makes me think snow accumulations may be even further west than expected.

  50. That really is telling for Mt.Washington to be at 32 degrees. Maybe the storm around the 20 th will ignite a pattern change. It can’t and will not stay like this through winter.

    2. I agree hadi but I don’t even see any sustainable cold air with much staying power and I’m looking out to the beginning of jan, now I know that far out is less accurate but this is totally not what we want if we’re looking for a snowy and cold winter,

  51. Tom I do think the cooling is from the west as the cold fronts keep moving through. I believe lake effect snow will be occurring this weekend over lake Erie.

    1. I have never experienced a lake effect snow band. I’ve read that one can go from no snow to zero visibility in a matter of a couple miles. And, I always find it amazing when some town downwind reports unbelievably big amounts of snow.

      1. Lake effect snows seem very unique, they can be hard to predict as a slight change in wind direction can either save a town or bury a town. I may try to study these in the near future to get a better understanding on lake effect snows.

  52. What needs to happen is we need to lay down the snow pack in parts of the east, which will help to suppress that SE ridge a bit. If you take a look at this, there is absolutely no snow cover in the East, no wonder it’s able to warm up with ease.
    http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201112/nsm_depth_2011120705_National.jpg

    Now there will be a bit of snow pack creation tonight, but we need a few storms to come on by to really get that snow pack firm.

  53. In jeneral most of the models say this storm will be to close for any snow in eastern mass but are people forgetting about the nam look at the 06z and 12z nam look at how they are saying that the coastline/areas inside 495 will have .6 to .8 of an inch of water. in the form of snow.
    http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=ne&model=nam&run=06&fhr=11&field=acctype
    http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=ne&model=nam&run=06&fhr=11&field=ptype
    what do you guys think about this .this just came out this evening.

    1. it also seems like it would be a 5 hour period if this happens. i think very unlikly but still slightly possible

  54. watching the temperature falling all day has been painfully slow. been stuck at 43.1 for an hour. started at 52.9 this morning. my god, this is worse than waiting for models runs.

    1. LOL……………I think the surface temps in the eastern third of Mass are going to now hold steady for the next several hours, even rise some from New Bedford to Plymouth, points south and east.

      1. I’m really hoping for a flip here by midnight. I have a couple of final exams next week so I have an excuse to stay up otherwise my wife would watch me with the words ‘you’re a weirdo’ resting on her lips.

  55. Lake effect snow in unreal, I was in the tug hill area years ago and you could drive from clear to 2 feet of snow in 20 minutes. The intensity of the bands are beyond anything I have ever seen.

  56. TK, you seem kind of quiet lately. What are your thoughts on snow chances in December? When will this pattern change and to what? I hope all is well.

    1. Just been extremely busy. A transition year where I’m taking over many things I didn’t do in the past. 🙂

      The pattern is turning a little more seasonable with a mild bias and near to below normal precipitation for a while. It remains to be seen how much snow we get in December. Just because one or two model runs show a storm going west of us around Christmas means zero. We all know how uncertain they can be, especially the GFS, that far out. All it takes is one system, timing and track a certain way, and we’re plastered.

      We MUST keep in mind the day-to-day model uncertainty and take it into account.

      I can assure you, we will not go through this winter snowless. In fact, if you want to get technical, winter doesn’t even start for another 2 weeks. It’s Autumn. Meteorological winter, ok. But really, it’s Autumn.

  57. John I hope if we get a storm before Christmas it would be snow and it stays cold so we have a white Christmas. As I said a while ago lets see where we are in terms of snowfall at the end of January before making judgements about winter.

  58. JMA I saw a post from you earlier! How are you doing? Things well I hope!
    Any insight on this month will end up?

  60. that’s as intense as I’ve seen for this time of year…..gotta be big fat snowflakes. and look at the size of the blob

  61. Someone tweeted that the track is going further east and the storm is stronger than expected. Is that right?

    1. I have no idea coastal. I’ve been glued to the thermometer and wind direction which is now 42.3 with North wind with a touch of NW wind. Wind has gone more Northerly than ENE from a few hours ago.

    2. Even if it is, it’s only slight, and will have no significant impact on the outcome in eastern MA.

  62. 1936-37 = 9.0″ is the least amount of snow for Boston in a winter season.

    Very scary if this record is actually challenged during this upcoming 2011-12 winter season…a strong SE ridge and +NAO (sound familiar?) would certainly do the trick.

    The last “serious” challenges to the record was in 1972-73 when 10.3″ fell.

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