Saturday January 23 2021 Forecast (8:15AM)

49 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 23-27)

An arctic cold front is dropping southward through the region early this morning and will take until mid to late morning to completely push through. Snow showers accompanying this front have whitened the ground in some locations north of Boston and briefly moderate snow showers may coat the ground along this boundary as it moves to the south. Its bigger impact will be to introduce the coldest air mass we’ve seen in quite some time, after a long stretch of milder-than-normal weather (other than one below normal day on Thursday). But now we’re putting together a string of colder-than-normal days which will last well into next week, starting with a dry (after the snow showers) and bright weekend between a large area of low pressure in the Canadian Maritime Provinces and high pressure in eastern Canada and the Great Lakes. I am continuing to lean toward mainly a miss for the storm system passing south of the region between late Monday and early Wednesday. I think the synoptic snowfall from this system may get into the NYC and southwestern CT area Monday night and Tuesday but the dry air will be too much to overcome for any of that snow to make it into the southern portion of the WHW forecast area. However, the direction of the wind at the surface may create some snow showers as the wind will be coming off the Atlantic from the northeast between high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south.

TODAY: Clouds and scattered snow showers with coatings of snow possible especially eastern MA through mid morning, otherwise sun & passing clouds. Highs 25-32 occurring early morning, steady or slowly falling thereafter. Wind NNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun & high clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Snow showers possible, favoring coastal areas. Highs 24-31. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Snow showers possible, favoring coastal areas. Lows 17-24. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers possible, favoring coastal areas. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

The large scale blocking pattern continues with another storm likely passing south of the region January 28 to early January 29, but this system, in combination with high pressure in eastern Canada, may help continue the coastal snow shower threat at least to start the period before the air flow turns more northerly. High pressure should control weather weather into the January 30-31 weekend but we will need to keep an eye on the next storm threat as early as January 31 and more likely February 1. That’s out at days 9 & 10 so no detail but just general idea on timing of the threat window.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

Cautiously and with low confidence forecasting a slight weakening of blocking resulting in a readjustment of large scale features and opening the door for a little more unsettled weather as we move through the early days of February. Greatest chance for storminess here would come during the middle to end of this period.

49 thoughts on “Saturday January 23 2021 Forecast (8:15AM)”

  1. I have a daughter that goes to school in Philly and one in DC. Just texted them the GFS for the 28th.

    No reason to think things will change here. Dry, dry, dry.

  7. Thanks TK!

    Hopefully those snow showers early next week will be productive. Boston itself hasn’t really been in on the action as much as most other areas.

    Brookline did pretty good on Thursday though.

    1. If they are they are, if not, then ah well. 🙂 It’s just the pattern we’re in. 🙂

      This pattern fascinates me. Watching the block is like playing jenga…. or “don’t break the ice” … when’s it gonna go?

      2. This pattern frustrates me to no end. I just have a bad feeling the next real opportunity is only going to be yet another RAIN event. We will see.

        1. I guess as a true weather lover I can’t find any frustration in a pattern like this.

          Very much like Pete, and don’t get me wrong he and I both like snow, I think we are more fascinated with the weather overall that whatever pattern we happen to be in is a result of a greater set up in the atmosphere that is just fascinating to watch.

          I would not want every winter to be cold and snowy from start to finish. I love the variety. I love knowing that we can have a winter like 2012 and just a few years later digging out from record snow. I love having the ability to experience a 70° Christmas Eve and a 12 below zero Valentine’s morning just a couple years apart. Just two of countless examples I could give… I couldn’t waste my time being frustrated with something I love so much.

          1. A 70 degree Christmas Eve?!?!

            Yuuuuuuuuuck!!!!!!!!

            Nope, it’s cold & snowy for me for the most part. 🙂

  8. 12z GFS is interesting for the 28th-29th.

    Oh so close…

    Surface

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021012312/126/prateptype_cat.conus.png

    500 mb

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021012312/126/500wh.conus.png

    200mb

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021012312/126/200wh.conus.png

    It passes just SE of us, but with this configuration, it wouldn’t take too much change to get it up here. LIKELY that is will pass south, BUT this set up cannot be ignored and must be watched.

    Probably the EURO will take it into Bermuda. 🙂

    2. It would take quite a bit. The upper wind pattern is not favorable at all and probably won’t be by then either.

      Note that the guidance that far out keeps wanting to bring these things closer and meatier, and then once they work out the pattern does not support this, they correct inside the last few days before the system passes by. Same thing in progress with the early next week system.

      1. That’s why I said the Euro will probably send it to Bermuda.

        I will still keep watching as I always do. 🙂

        1. You may not be all that far off with the Bermuda because with this type of a block it’s orientation sends redevelopment east southeastward quite often.

          A simple way to look at it is think of a more classic pattern minus the intensity tipped almost 90° to the right. I’m over simplifying it but you get the idea.

  9. This morning looking at those futurecast radars on the next event, the precipitation itself looks nice on approach near the Ohio Valley but then literally falls apart once it hits the coast and just meanders out to sea well south. I always think of low pressure “strengthening” once it reaches the coast, if nothing else.

    I don’t get it. Can you explain this particular one TK?

        2. I think you are misunderstanding what this pattern does.

          I’ve explained several times on here already that blocking patterns do not always translate to snowy weather here. There are many different blocking patterns that we can see.

          While the future cast radars are literally just cartoonized models what they are showing is the dry air being dominant and the energy from the storms being strung out and pushed off to the south. Storms do not always strengthen when they hit a coastline. While that may be true if you take all of the cases the majority of the time, we are still in a pattern that does not really allow that. The weather is just not that simple.

          Your statement about the cutters is inaccurate. With all but probably one system in the last four weeks this pattern has completely shut off the cutter track. It’s been doing a very good job at keeping cutters away.

            1. Oh don’t say that!
              I just want you and anybody else reading to realize that blocking pattern is not a lock-in for snowy pattern.

              This gets misrepresented in media on occasion, especially by folks with not enough experience. The TV folks and the National Weather Service of course have done a very good job at explaining the pattern. I just want to make sure that everybody understands that there are different types of the same kind of pattern, for example several varieties of blocking, some of which can lead to our snowy periods, and some of which lead to exactly what we are seeing right now. The details in the meteorology are always important even when looking at the larger scale.

              1. No worries TK. This blog has taught me, if nothing else, that weather is a lot more than just “highs and lows”. 🙂

    1. I heard that over Mom’s radio earlier. Whether you were a fan of him or not you had to admire his style and how well he did his craft.

      I didn’t see him too often but I did like him.

      He survived a lot of nasty stuff, heart attack, cancer, losing two of his children very close together in time….

      They didn’t list a cause of death but I know he was hospitalized with covid-19 in December.

      1. Covid-19 has taken away a lot of wonderful folks that would likely easily still be alive. Very sad. China as a nation should be deeply ashamed. 🙁

    1. I can practically hear the sound of you running to the computer every time a new model is out… quietly whispering “is it further north this run?”

  12. Cold day today but the sun shining brightly has been a welcome sight. Excited for tomorrow: Brady vs Rogers. I’ve been rooting for Brady since day one of his announcement that he’d be going to Tampa. Going to be tough weatherwise for the whole team going to the cold in Green Bay. That shock to the body after being in warm weather and going to play in cold weather is insane. If the Buccs win this will be the first “home game” Superbowl. No team has made it to a Super Bowl thar was slated for their home stadium. It’s known as the Home Field Advantage Curse. We shall see if Brady overcomes that.

      2. Brady is used to the cold but his body isn’t adjusted to it. Usually takes me a few weeks into the winter to adjust to cold weather!

    2. I’d love to see them make it, and I’d love to see Brady overcome “the curse”. 🙂

      1. He has two of his own choices. I’ll be surprised if he isn’t making sure they are prepared. What wonderful comment I’ve been hearing from his teammates and coaches. I would love to see them win today.

        If they don’t I will pull for the Bills. I’ve always liked them and Their QB is outstanding.

        1. I am really hoping for the Bills to get there and win the super bowl they deserve it after all these years. Even when they were good in the 90s they never won the big game. Though I will be a Patriot fan for life, I can not help but respect them as an organization and their fans. I want Bills/Packers but of course because of that it probably be Chiefs/Bucs. With that said with the patriots having a top 5 amount of money to work with this off season, and the patriots only technically being a couple of plays from having a winning record, its not as far as people think for the Patriots to be back in the mix. I seriously think next season there will be 3 AFC east teams in the playoffs.

          1. I’m betting if not this year for the Bills, next. Allen is phenomenal and sure deserved the recognition he got. I sure wouldn’t mind seeing them in the SB either

            I will remain a pats fan. But I am a Brady fan perhaps even more.

            1. I’m definitely more of a Brady fan. I got into sports later because of people like Drew Bledsoe and Brady rather than any attachment to the team itself through a parental figure like most people usually form their sports alliances.

              1. I sure understand what you mean. I’m also not a fan of how the pats treated him for far too many years. So Brady it is.

    1. That is when we finally may see a couple of snow chances – during the transition out of the blocking pattern.

    1. That was a pretty solid effort. After Bruce scolded them after the second period of the game before, they’ve been a different team.

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