Wednesday January 27 2021 Forecast (7:42AM)

83 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 27-31)

One final area of synoptic snowfall associated with energy from low #1 (see yesterday’s discussion) is producing small additional snowfall accumulation in a much of the region this morning. This energy will slide offshore by midday as low #2 will have taken over well south of the region, but a northeasterly air flow will bring some low level moisture in from the Atlantic and create showers of snow and/or rain during the day today, and a few other potential snow showers tonight into Thursday as low #3 emerges off the Mid Atlantic Coast and intensifies into a large ocean storm, which will track well southeast of New England through Friday. But as it turns to the north on Friday we will see a trough behind it try to swing through with one additional snow shower or snow squall chance on Friday, although most of this activity will likely stay just offshore or impact Cape Cod. What it will do is pull the coldest air of the season so far into our region Thursday night through early Saturday, before temperatures recover a little more by later in the weekend as high pressure builds in and the low moves away…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of snow with up to 1/2 inch additional accumulation through mid morning, then scattered snow showers except rain or snow showers in coastal areas. Highs 30-37. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers favoring eastern coastal areas with localized additional small accumulations. Lows 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely in the morning, accumulating up to 1/2 inch in spots but local accumulation of up to an inch or two possible Cape Ann and MA South Shore. Partly sunny with scattered snow showers favoring Cape Cod during the afternoon. Highs 28-35 by midday but temperatures falling sharply later. Wind NE to N increasing to 15-25 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with snow showers Cape Cod. Clear elsewhere. Lows 8-15. Wind N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially eastern coastal areas. Wind chill below zero at times.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy with most clouds eastern MA coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Additional snow showers possible mainly Cape Cod but brief snow showers/squalls possible from north to south in southeastern NH and eastern MA midday or afternoon. Highs 16-23. Wind N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near zero at times.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 6-13. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-7 except 8-15 urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

Watching a storm potential for early next week (February 1-2) depending on the evolution of a low pressure area moving into the Ohio Valley then redevelop along the northern Mid Atlantic Coast. There are a lot of scenarios on the table for this ranging from a graze to a significant snowstorm to a storm that includes a variety of precipitation. Don’t pay attention to any model snowfall numbers without knowing the uncertainty. Fair, seasonably chilly weather follows this for the middle of next week and then expecting a temperature moderation toward the end of next week. This evolution will be the result of a weakening blocking pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

Blocking becomes very weak to non-existent and we see a little but more ridging in the US Southeast. For us, looks like a milder pattern evolves and there will be a threat of some unsettled weather in the February 6-8 window. Also keep in mind that a “milder pattern” does not mean mild every day nor does it automatically mean that unsettled weather means “rainstorms”. We still have to be general beyond a few days and look at each situation in an objective and scientific fashion as it draws closer so we can make the best forecast possible.

83 thoughts on “Wednesday January 27 2021 Forecast (7:42AM)”

  1. Thank you, TK!

    3.5″ here with a light snow continuing to fall.

    The Freetown-Lakeville district had an hour delay. That’s the lone school disruption I see down in this area. I am remote today, finishing up the first semester.

    1. Agree with this comment from Hadi last night: “Great little system. Very scenic, no major driving issues…”

  7. Thanks TK!

    Fwiw…Matt Noyes has rain with a high of 46 for next Friday (day #10). Pete had it there on his broadcast yesterday.

    It’s hard for me to associate “mild” and “snow”.

    1. Being a New Englander, you should be able to comprehend that.
      We can get big snow storms in an otherwise “mild” pattern, just like we can get rain storms in a “cold” pattern.

      1. Indeed you did.

        Also keep in mind that a “milder pattern” does not mean mild every day nor does it automatically mean that unsettled weather means “rainstorms”.

  8. Good morning and thank you TK. Looking like a solid 4 inches here. Up to 24 inches on the season. Still a nice steady light snow falling here.

  9. 2015, the Cantore thunder snow event.

    As I recall, an intense 500 mb disturbance cut underneath us and helped to capture and intensify an area of snow in Maine and rotated it southwestward and southward into eastern New England.

    Slightly different track to a similarly impressive 500 mb disturbance in 2-3 days. It would be limited to coastal areas, but same idea, an area of snow gets rotated right down along the coastline.

    Keep an eye on this. Any slight deviation of the 500 mb feature a bit further southwest and this snow area for Friday-ish ?? Can end up a bit further west and I think it could be briefly potent.

  11. Thanks TK
    I see Logan up to 4.4 inches of snow. Just prior to this snow there was talk this would be the least snowiest January on record. Now there up to 4.6 inches for the month. I believe now Boston is over 20 inches for the season.

  12. 3.5 inches of wet snow here.

    It was snowing lightly to about 30 mins ago. Now, it’s a mix of tiny ice pellets and rain.

  16. Nice little low impact but well behaved system. Especially after – the maybe a system on the 2nd, then 5th, 8th, 12th. 15th, 22nd routine. The 26th – 28th timeframe paid off.

    We got about 3″ here. About 2″ on paved surfaces and 3″ cold surfaces. Seems like about 3-4″ most places. With 5″ type bands in Franklin and Worcester counties and 2″ more of the rule in Hampden county.

    Behaved almost as we thought. Dry air ate away at the mid and lower levels and a bit of warming trend today will transition left over moisture to a flurry / drizzle mix limiting additional accumulation. Fluff factor / SLR was more robust than I anticipated. Adding an 1-1,5″ to many areas.

    As for the trough rotating inland, I think that is more meteorology fan fiction than probable outcome, but Friday should yield some snow showers coming off the long fetch and reaching coastal communities.

    Let’s see how this system transitions out of here and the next system traverses the states before we get to deep into Monday / Tuesday.

    2. That’s a fascinating snowfall accumulation map. Reverse orographic lift? Somehow the valleys shadow the east facing hills of NY, CT, and MA and the valleys get greater accumulations and the areas of elevation see reduced amounts. Going to go out on a strong limb here and say ignore that map.

  20. Snowfall @ Logan to date = 22.3”

    Amazing how Boston went from 0.3” (tied for least snowiest) to 4.7” for the month in just 24 hours. Perhaps could add a bit more still for the month.

  21. Philip I agree. I was saying earlier prior to this snowfall the talk was least snowiest January on record. One minor snowfall changed all that. I think Boston getting close to if not exceeding 30 inches of snow for the season has a good chance of happening.

    1. Could exceed 40 inches depending on the next potential event in addition to whatever comes in March as what TK has had his eye on in his winter outlook.

      Boston definitely now has a nice base to build on for a normal snowfall (43.8”). Let’s see what happens.

      1. This will not be a winter when October snow happened that Boston will finish with below 20 inches of snow.

  22. JPD…the blue hills program was fascinating. I loved just listening to the Mets chat. I did see that you attended. Did anyone else from here?

      1. I also attended. Great comradery amongst these ratings competitors. Wonderful to hear how humble forecasting makes them.

        1. Also…Tim Kelley’s comments about the pressure of making so many TV appearances in the day was enlightening. He compared it to the old days where there was a morning , noon, 6pm, and 1100pm broadcast and that was it. Plenty of time to study changes in the different models.
          Now there are many morning, noon, 4pm,5pm,6pm,9pm,10pm11pm appearances. And Harvey said with the overwhelming amount of info they get now, there is no time to update using all the info because they have to redo the graphics and then go on camera again. Very inciteful.

          1. I sure agree on everything you have said. It was special just listening to them reminisce, compare notes, and just have fun

    2. I was disappointed in the turn out. It topped out at 87 and 5 or 6 were presenters and hosts. Aside from that the format and discussion was excellent.

      I hope they do more.

  24. Euro looked terrific, moves very slowly. Don’t look at snow totals at this point but that track and the fact this thing is not flying though. Double digits should be easy to come by with that track.

    1. Double digits IF we can keep out any rain. Remember, the antecedent air mass will have warmed considerably over what
      we will see Friday and Saturday.

  27. Very frustrating to see all the models consistently depicting a massive cutter late next week. Similar to what happened in December with a snowstorm followed by a rain event and meltdown a few days later. Though it looks like the system late next week could have some CAD in place at the start and shouldn’t nearly be the torch storm we saw over Christmas.

  29. John Homenuk tweet

    Today’s GFS-Based CIPS Analog’s valid Monday 2/2 are littered with several historically significant Northeast US winter storms. While analog guidance is only a small piece of the forecasting puzzle, seeing so many major events is a red flag regarding early next week’s potential.

    1. If the set up matches those analogs, then fine a red flag.
      Just because many storms occurred on that date alone is by no means a red flag.

  31. the euro showing a storm that could see the B word being used. its about a week out but after the benign January New England has experienced in terms of winter weather, it looks promising. I will be jealous

  32. Email from Charlie Orloff regarding the Blue Hills Observatory Webinar:

    Hello David,

    Thank you for attending today’s webinar “The Thin Line Between Rain and Snow: How Forecasters Handle the Challenge.” Most importantly,
    we appreciate your amazing questions and comments—”First of all, Harvey, Matt, Tim and Eric, your guys are heroes for me, and I love your work and passion for the weather, thank you for this presentation/talk and I hope it happens again.”

    There were too many insights to recap, however below are some of our favorite quotes from our presenters—

    Eric Fisher “Winter is constant indigestion. During the winter I cannot sleep. You try and be as right as possible in context of the atmosphere. It is humbling.”

    Tim Kelley “A lot of weather nerds grew up in New England. It is the most fascinating weather on the planet—there is almost always a swirl coming around.”

    Harvey Leonard on accuracy and technology. “We are fare more accurate, but the expectations have gone up. Decades ago you have a situation where you predicted 6-10 inches of snow and got none. That would not happen today.”

    Tim Kelly “I am so happy to be in this room with all of you. You need a vision to persist in this field and then thick skin to handle predicting the weather. We are all competitors yet friends.”

    Harvey Leonard “Let’s not forget we have one of the greatest resources in meteorology at Blue Hill Observatory.”

    Save the Date—Invite to Come!
    Join us on February 24th from 7:00-8:30pm for a “Climate Solutions Workshop” with Dr. Tamara Shapiro, bio here . This interactive workshop will explore what strategies can help the world address climate change.

    As always, thank you for supporting Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center and for sharing in our passion for the weather.

    Sincerely,
    Charles Orloff
    Executive Director
    Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center

  35. Thank you, TK.

    Mark, thanks for the Lake Tahoe snow forecast. They can have massive winter storms there. Beautiful part of the country.

    1. Joshua, not sure if you read the blog last evening but I posted (6:15PM) several pictures from our trip up to Jay Peak, VT this past weekend. You would love the cold and deep winter feel up there. It struggled to get much above 0 on Sat and Sun!

      1. Someone on the program today mentioned that Jay peak folks said to stay home at one point. I only one time in my years skiing were we ever told it was too cold to open lifts

        1. It was pretty dead there Saturday and Sunday. Temp struggled to get above 0 and the winds higher up were gusting 30-50mph. It was a tad brisk 🙂

          They actually did close down one day in January 2019 during a particularly severe cold/wind event where the wind chills hit 50 below.

  37. Pete has 52F with rain next Friday so whatever snow falls early next week might not be sticking around very long.

    1. Way too soon; although the focus on snow I believe is early week. Turns out last week Pete was spot on re the snow last night into today.

  38. Mark, thanks for alerting me to the photos from Jay’s Peak. The snow and cold capital of New England.

  39. Cloris Leachman has passed at 94. I remember her fondly from Mary Tyler Moore. And more recently from girl meet world. A great actress indeed

  40. I’m not sure why anybody would have been talking record low snow at Logan a week ago knowing we had potentials in the pipeline before the month was over. But that’s just me. I prefer to do this the scientific way versus the “well it looks this way today so nothing can change” way. 😉

    I was just on a local page from central MA in which the debate is whether the big snowstorm is occurring Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday next week. 😉

    1. There sure is a lot of chatter regarding this potential storm most using same words like significant, long multiple day storm .

  41. I was able to catch three TV guys early this evening… Pete, Kevin, and Harvey.. Even when these guys go out on a limb they have been great at explaining the caution needed and I think they have handled things wonderfully this season.

    It has been my observation that most of the issues have been caused by illegitimate sources.

Comments are closed.