Drier, Chilly

97 Comments

2:43AM

The soaker of Wednesday is on its way out. Heavy rain is still moving through the Boston area as of the time of this writing but by the time most of you see this, the storm will be long gone. Air remained too warm to allow much of a flip to snow in this area, with snow confined to higher elevations far west and north of Boston.

Other than a weak disturbance passing the region Friday night and early Saturday, high pressure will be in general control for the next several days with chilly (or more normal) weather with generally dry conditions.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 43-48. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH, diminishing slowly during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 31-36. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. High 45-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 41.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 29. High 44.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 46.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 28. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Scattered snow showers. Low 27. High 41.

97 thoughts on “Drier, Chilly”

  1. TK, thank you for update. (Your high temps for next 3 days are a bit higher — 3 or 4 degrees — than others which I like.)

    4 am: Rain in Newton is steady; temp at 39-40; and no wind as of now.

  3. Thanks for the update TK !

    Thru 12/6….Logan, +7.6F…..Worcester +9.2F….Hartford and TF Green have similar positive anomolies. Yesterday’s 15F positive anomolies aren’t averaged in yet.

    Its very early in the month, however…now the average temps are getting down there. Logan is down to 44F/31F and by months end, I think its 38F/26F.

    The next week wont see any 15F to 20F temp departures, but I think an overall 3F to 4F temp departure from 12/8 to 12/15 is a reasonable expectation.

    If even one more storm travels to the regions’ west, there would be another huge temperature departure day that would be averaged in.

    My point is, this could be a month of historic warmth. The table has been set and it will be interesting to see what the rest of the month brings.

  4. just a crusty coating this morning.

    props to TK for nailing that one days in advance. my guess of 3″ here was off by like….300%.

  5. areas east of worcester and leominster got little or no snow from this. areas to the west of worcester and leominster got up to 4 inches
    the berkshires got a general 4-8 inches of snow with areas reaching around a foot.
    the highest areas in the extreme northern berkshires near the boarder up into vt has isolated areas over 1 foot.
    now it is really windy and the wind is kicking the clouds out but it feels like it is in the upper 1os and low 20s this morning bunddle up.

  7. Well, I guess I was wrong with my prediction. LOL!

    OS or anyone, do you see anything down the pipe line? I looked at the GFS this morning and saw nothing.

    Have a great day everyone!

  9. And the winter that never came continues!! Meteorological winter has less than 11 weeks left, the area is so giddy for no snow it’s crazy, every person I tell I c no snow for a while, every single person has said good, it’s crazy how many people hate snow, it has shaped this country the last 30 years with a steady flow of people moving south, maybe it’s good that well have not much snow and cold it will keep the people that r borderline moving to possibly stay 🙂

    1. Good point Charlie. I think last winter was the breaking point for some. Although, my guess is that many of those complaining about snow also complain about humidity. If they move south, humidity is horrible. My in-laws who lived in SC used to leave every summer and SC isn’t even that bad.

      I’ll take New England any day of the week – you just can’t beat it IMHO

    1. I see that too Scott and it is early but just looking at the set up it appears it’s a Boston to Providence rain event while possibly well north and west get some snow. I still don’t see any real cold air, it’s crazy going into mid Dec and not seeing 20 degrees for a low in the forecast and no sustainability

  13. Charlie, you’re spot on with your comments: Yesterday I heard from a half-dozen colleagues at work the same refrain: “at least this isn’t snow.” Being a defender of all things winter, my retort was: “are you kidding me, so you’d prefer flooding, mud, and broken umbrella’s to snowfall, in December? Really?” I know that snowstorms can wreak havoc on infrastructure, and can sometimes cause death and serious destruction. I don’t wish that on anyone. Needless to say, rain and windstorms (i.e., Irene) can do similar damage, and there are no “pretty” or “scenic” benefits like you get with snow, especially in December when as we rush around from store to store Burl Ives and others are constantly reminding us of how the weather ought to be “frightful” and to “let it snow.”

    In any event, I’m seriously considering a brief Quebec City retreat between Christmas and New Year’s. Even in mild winters, QC usually has some white on the ground and the feel of winter.

    1. It does look more hopeful, but as we all know GFS has been somewhat all over the place in terms of medium and long-range projections.

  15. By the way, people, for real wind and rainstorms, I mean the real thing, you’ve got to go to Scotland. Check out the coverage of the latest of a series of megastorms to hit Scotland in the past few weeks: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-16079849

    I lived in the Netherlands for many years and we experienced some serious November storms (a “storm” in Holland and in Dutch usually refers to wind and wind only, as most of the major storms are essentially gigantic Atlantic Lows that are situated between Iceland and the Hebrides and heading towards Norway; these Lows produce rain of course near their “eye” (so in places like Scotland) but the further out you go it’s mostly lots of wind (in the Netherlands). I remember the storms well. The would batter a region the size of the entire Eastern Seaboard of the United States.

    1. Thanks for posting. I’ve been seeing a little more consistency today, and I really like that. Let’s see what the next set of runs gives us.

  18. Would today mark the pattern change. Simply by the temperatures now and the next few days compared to what we have experienced? I think so!

    2. It’s just a new phase in the transitional pattern, but it sure won’t be like what we have been experiencing. I don’t see any warm ups getting past the upper 40s for the foreseeable future.

    3. Coastal imo, not quite yet, unless by some miracle it doesn’t warm up again.
      We’re getting there.

      Maybe, just maybe we have turned the corner. We’ll know sooon enough.

    1. GFS also hints at something in this time frame, so there is chance of something.
      IF and What precip type are the questions. We’ll keep an eye on it for sure.
      Thanks

  21. I would say that above average temps are pretty much done for, looks to be near normal so i would say yes to transition date as today.

      1. I respectfully disagree 🙂 🙂 🙂 (I have to, since I went with January 29th)…..if it hits 50F tomorrow, next Monday and Tuesday, thats 7F above normal……There’s no doubt there’s a different pattern in place thats cooled the weather off, but for a regime change, I picked a date to represent increased snowfalls and temps most days below normal.

    2. I do not think it is today. I would think cold for awhile or snow storm would define the change. I believe it starts warming up again on Sunday.

      1. Basically more consistent cold and not much in the way of warm ups. It also seems the storm track is more suppressed, which would cause storms to go south of us, preventing the southwest torch from blowing in here.

  23. A pattern change doesn’t mean below average temps IMO. It means that most days are average, some below some above which is the case every year. A pattern change can’t mean that we do not have above average temps just not day in and day out.

  24. alright guys, since I don’t have a pony in the pattern change date, I feel I can be an unbiased judge on it.

    In short….the GFS still has the SE ridge or a relative thereof in nearly every frame. So, I think that puts to rest a real pattern change at the moment.

    I think you might want to consider the first alberta clipper as a qualifier since they usually user in real arctic air.

    1. There’s a clipper going by tonight, but well north of us, which is ushering in a moderated form of arctic air. We just need one to travel south of us so it can redevelop off the coast and throw some decent snows our way. With a well established snow pack in place, the arctic air would not moderate nearly as much, and will help suppress the storm track.

  25. actually scott i hope that’s how it goes down but i don’t know. i was just sitting here thinking about what a real cold core disturbance would do off the delmarva.

    1. The weak La Nina and +NAO sure is not helping with that, but there is plenty of time to change those factors around.

  26. But if the SE ridge is not bringing the warmth up here and keeping it bay that means the pattern has changed? Listen I have no money on this so it’s also unbiased granted I picked the 9th:)

  28. I’m sure we can work something out on the side Hadi if you need a vote ;). I can be bought out for short money.

    The pattern still looks above average temps on the margins is all I’m saying. Don’t forget, we shed about 10 degrees on average highs just in this month alone so it will feel colder regardless.

    1. I would like to look back and see what we agreed on. Vicki may have it. Vicki come out and play, where are you.

      1. We didn’t agree on anything as I remember. Tom said a period below normal but i asked if it should be below or just ge to normal and I think that was end of discussion

        1. I do but on my computer. It’s shut down. I’m using the iPad. I’ll have to get them first thing in morning. I know Hadi and I both have the 9th since it’s my anniversary. But I thout someone might have the 8th. Not sure tho

        2. This is fun. Alright, lets say today is the pick. If a couple weeks from now, the majority of days are above normal and theres no snow, then can we reconsider.

  31. 9.0″ = 1936-37…the least snowiest winter ever for Boston.

    Anyone here think this record will be challenged this upcoming 2011-12 winter?

    One thing for sure…the snowiest (107.6″ = 1995-96) is most certainly safe this time around, lol. 🙂

    1. We will be getting alot more than 9 inches so that record will stay. You wait and see we will be getting the storms starting the end of the mounth and first part of new year.

  33. that 95/96 winter was just awesome. the snowpack in my yard was near or over 50″ at the peak. It might have even been 55″ if I remember right. We were getting 6″ storms like twice a week it seemed with a one footer in between.

  34. We’re in a new pattern. The subtropical jet (with the storms and warm air) is staying south. The polar jet is now dominant and will be that way for 7 to 10 days and possibly beyond. This pattern will feature dry weather and temperatures seasonable to slightly above normal. The 60+ weather is gone, but so are the frequent rain events.

    Blog update in progress.

  35. Found the dates on another blog

    Philip 12/19
    JimmyJames 12/8
    Vicki 12/9
    Rainshine 12/11
    Tom 1/29
    John 12/10
    Old Salty 1/2
    Scott 12/5
    Hadi 12/9

  40. Yup, this is the change…50 on the mild days, 38 on the cool days and no snow. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  41. It’s a pattern change, but it’s not the one that’s going to last all winter which John is right about. That much colder pattern will be here eventually.

    2. Yes…when its 15f and snows 4 inches, that will be called the ice age. I trust everyone knows im just having fun about the regime change contest.

    3. I think some people where thinking the pattern change would incorporate snow but this is not the case. You can look at most of Toms post and realize the temps have been extremely above normal. Now they will be at or maybe slightly above normal for the next week. That is a pattern change.

      Do not judge the pattern change from normal temps for this date but rather the temps of the previous two weeks.

      1. Good stuff coastal…it is a pattern change….but..so we had a contest on when we would see a new pattern of no snow and slightly above normal temps?

    1. Jimmy…even the temps aren’t going to be all that cold…maybe a teeny bit below normal a day here or there. We have been so spoiled much of this fall.

  43. This is NOT the pattern change by any stretch. If this was, temps would be running a good 7-10+ degrees below normal and there would be a series of upcoming storms lined up in the eastern Pacific looming off the west coast with potential snows for us for the next 2-3 weeks.

    I still predict that December will remain snowless…unfortunately. 🙁

    1. This is, indeed, a new pattern, dominated by a polar jet stream with a surpressed southern jet.

  47. Excellent weblog right here! Also your website a lot up fast! What host are you the use of? Can I am getting your associate hyperlink to your host? I desire my site loaded up as fast as yours lol

Comments are closed.