Sunday January 31 2021 Forecast (8:14AM)

350 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 31- FEBRUARY 4)

The arctic air mass that has frozen us decently well over the last few days will be on the way out today, although it will still be a cold day, running below normal for the end of January. The high & mid level clouds you see in the sky are in advance of the coming winter storm that will impact the region later Monday through Tuesday, with greatest impact Monday night. This will happen as low pressure heads from the Ohio Valley to the northern Middle Atlantic Coast. This low never turn into a power house, but it will have an elongated center, first with a west-to-east orientation south of New England, then in response to upper level low pressure will rotate counterclockwise to more of a south-to-north orientation as it passes south and east of New England Monday through Tuesday, before moving away and organizing into a more formidable storm system in the Canadian Maritime Provinces on Wednesday. After that, high pressure will move in providing us with fair weather and not-too-cold air for Thursday.

Before I go to the detailed forecast here is an updated run-down of the aspects of the coming storm…

Arrival timing: Snow arrives south to north Monday afternoon but may be mixed with rain South Coast, Cape Cod, and MA South Shore.

Storm peak (heaviest precipitation): Monday night to very early Tuesday.

Snow amounts: Slushy under 1 inch tip of Cape Ann MA, immediate South Shore of MA south of Plymouth, Buzzards Bay region eastward through Cape Cod. 1-3 inches middle of Cape Ann MA, immediate MA South Shore south of Boston to Plymouth, southward just inland of the MA South Shore south of Plymouth to the western side of Buzzards Bay, 3-6 inches immediate NH Seacoast to immediate North Shore of MA, Logan Airport, interior southeastern MA to Narragansett Bay, 6-12 inches elsewhere with highest amounts in the I-495 belt west of Boston especially higher elevations.

Rain vs. snow: A rain/snow line will spend most of its time near the shoreline with southeastern MA especially Cape Cod in rain longest. This rain/snow line may migrate northwestward for a while during the storm, or even oscillate in response to precipitation intensity and is the reason for a very sharp snowfall gradient in the forecast. When you see this, there is a higher-than-usual potential that areas in this sharp gradient zone need a forecast adjustment.

Coastal impact: While not extremely strong, some significant and persistent onshore wind from the east and northeast, with some strong gusts across Cape Cod, then eventually more from the north, will probably result in minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding for the Monday afternoon, early Tuesday morning, and Tuesday afternoon high tides, with the greatest threat likely for the latter 2 high tide cycles.

Power outages: This will be a higher water content snow, so isolated to scattered power outages are possible, especially where snowfall accumulations are 4 or more inches. The stronger wind gusts along the coastline and especially over Cape Cod may also result in a few isolated power outages. Not expecting widespread power problems.

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Thickening overcast.. Lows 15-22. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Overcast. Snow arriving south to north during the afternoon at least into the I-90 belt, may be mixed with rain South Coast / Cape Cod. Highs 26-33 except 33-40 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind NE to E increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas by late-day.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Moderate to heavy snow except mix coast and rain Cape Cod evening, tapering off to a few rain/snow showers south to north overnight. Temperatures rise slightly to 28-35 except 35-42 coastal areas, warmest Cape Cod. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH with gusts as high as 30 MPH inland, 15-25 MPH with gusts as high as 40 MPH coastal areas, except 25-35 MPH with gusts 50-60 MPH Cape Cod.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Occasional rain & snow showers. Highs 35-42 morning, falling slightly in the afternoon. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH coastal areas except 45-55 MPH Cape Cod, especially in the morning and midday.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Additional mix/snow showers evening. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

Next low pressure area passes well north of the region on February 5 with a warm front / cold front combo meaning maybe a brief light mix then a chance of rain showers. Additional unsettled weather possible during the February 6-7 weekend and possibly February 8 as colder air from the west slowly makes its way toward this area. Too early for detail on precipitation chances at this time. Fair, colder weather to end this period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Temperatures start cold then moderate, unsettled weather threat mid to late period. Low confidence forecast with a lot of re-evaluation needed.

350 thoughts on “Sunday January 31 2021 Forecast (8:14AM)”

  4. Thanks TK.
    Hopefully you folks near and at the coast there will be a surprise and you get more snow. I am hoping the snow amounts being projected to my area hold as this would be the second double digit snowfall of the season.

    1. More snow near the coast would likely result in significant power problems. Hoping that is not the case.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Love the details in the discussion.Your presentation is impeccable.

    Just got up. Late night. Not at computer yet.

    All latest models have at least some rain at the coast, however 12z hrrr looking mighty fine. Have to eat and shower, then if no maps have been posted by then, will do so.

  7. Thanks TK, and a great discussion!

    My first guess range for SNE yesterday was 10-16″ for most areas, and I will stick with that this morning, though my analysis up your guys’ way is a bit cursory. Seems a little higher than most forecasts I’m seeing, but not by much, and I’m ok with that. Much less over southeast MA, and the potential for a sharp gradient within about 5-10 miles of the coast with those numbers decreasing. Possibly some 16-20″ jackpot areas near the 495 belt but I don’t think too many locations come in that high. And probably a couple of mostly orographically driven shadow regions in parts of CT and west-central MA, basically right where much of the guidance has been showing them. Maybe only 5-10″ in those areas. All in all, maybe not a blockbuster for SNE but a pretty big storm and a long duration one.

    I’m still interested to see where the highest totals end up (i.e., who gets 36″+?) Still not thinking it’s gonna be SNE, but it will be someone….

    Enjoy it all!

      1. Hi Vicki! It’s looking like a very tough forecast. Kind of a twofold issue here, because we’ve got a difficult rain/snow line forecast, but there’s also a chance that the “mega band” sets up in our forecast area (especially northern NJ or somewhere in eastern PA). For my location specifically, I’m looking at about 8-12″, but that could move quite a bit in either direction.

        I’m actually heading off to the office now for what will probably be a very busy day 🙂

  8. Thanks, TK!

    0 degrees (0.3 to be exact) here en casa this morning, the coldest morning in more than two years (January 22, 2019).

    You covered it all in your thoughts this morning, sir! Well done, as always!

    1. Good question. I will have to look into the parameters for a watch to be issued. Nothing to do with flooding, etc…..right? I’m thinking Humarock and Brant rock will see flooding. If I’m reading correctly, the high tide Tuesday is 2:16 am….right in the middle of the height??

      1. Yes, about a 10 ft tide, a middle of the road tide. Not excessively high, but a decent high tide at level.

        The watches don´t match up to some areas expected to get little or less near the immediate coast.

        One of those things where I think the whole county has a watch or it doesn´t ??

  10. Thanks TK.

    I had 8-12 yesterday with a few 12-16 pockets and still happy with that call. I think the cold hangs on up here but will be an issue towards Plymouth county/south. I did see that it’s moving in quicker too, looks to be snowing tomorrow midday and I think that helps the cold hangs tougher. We shall see.

  12. I was somewhat surprised to see NYC, Philly, DC and even Richmond VA under Winter Storm Warnings. It would be ironic to have a decent snowstorm for them and only a few inches of “slop” for us in SNE and mostly rain for SE MA/Cape.

    1. Hello again,

      Back at my computer office.

      In my opinion, it is becoming increasingly MORE likely that
      there WILL be a change to rain from Boston well West into
      the suburbs and perhaps to I495 in the 11PM Monday to 2AM Tuesday time frame. HOWEVER, there will be such a significant thump of SNOW preceding any change over, that it just won’t matter.

      Looking over the 0Z, 6Z and limited 12Z data, I believe that 8-12 inches is a good bet from the Boston Neighborhoods out
      to or just past the Rt. 128 belt with 12-16 inches in the 495 belt. From Boston Neighborhoods to Logan to say Braintree/Weymouth, 4-8 inches. Southeast of that 3-6 and then SE of there 1-3.

      I believe that here in JP, We will receive something on the order of 8-10 inches. I predict Logan will come in at 5 inches.
      TK will come in around 12 and Retrac will have 16 or so.

      Jus my stupid thoughts for whatever they are worth.

  14. Once again I fully believe the cold holds longer than modeled. Most of our forecasted snow is going to happen before any warmth intrudes.

    1. I don’t think it holds altogether, but as I said above, it will hold long enough for a Major snow event, even if it changes to rain eventually.

    1. Thanks Doc. All look reasonable. Take your pick.
      Better still, print that out, post it on the wall and throw a dart at it. Wherever it lands, that’s your forecast. 🙂

        1. I’m allllll for the warmth to come in and make this a rain event where I am. I said to myself “I’ll run out and buy a snowblower if we get a storm modeled over a foot.” So any warmth will save me money haha

        2. So it’s looking like around the 4-8 zone for Boston . I know last night wankum was going with 5 inches for Boston I’ll be Curious on his thoughts today as I like him . I’m off tomorrow for a follow up with my knee . I’ll be working the storm I just need too figure out what time I’ll head in tomorrow afternoon so I’m not impacted by the storm I was thinking maybe get there at 4pm .

  19. 12Z RDPS doesn’t get the warm layer into the Boston Area until
    Tuesday afternoon around Noon to 1PM

    https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2021013112/054/850th.us_ne.png

    BUT this model has surface temperature at Boston up to 40 degrees. So not only do we have to deal with warm layer above, but the boundary layer temperatures. I do believe this model is portraying the surface temperatures as TOO WARM!!!

    https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2021013112/054/sfct.us_ne.png

    Kuchera Snow, this is just wonderful!!!!! NOT!

    https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2021013112/054/sfct.us_ne.png

    10:1 snow

    https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2021013112/081/sn10_acc.us_ne.png

    At this point, I would toss this model in the dumpster and light a match to it!!!!!

  20. Relative short window for a period of heavy snow between noon Monday and midnight prior to an intrusion of warm air – I agree with 8-12 for this area prior to any changeover. Not a long duration snow event. Certainly not a 48 hr event as previously feared but still will have significant impacts closer to the coast given the extremely high water content of snow combined with modest wind.

  22. Thoughts on schools In the 128 belt? Regular day Monday–perhaps no after school/evening activities. Likely snow day Tuesday? Looks like the main event is wrapped up by Tuesday morning, but perhaps a significant amount of clean-up required? I prefer when it’s more clear cut!

    2. I just hope, if schools are in tomorrow, we don’t get caught in heavy snow and storm in the afternoon on the way home.

    3. “Snow days” will soon be a thing of the past, if not already in some districts with remote learning. Snowstorms will mean nothing on scheduled school days.

      1. Not in Middleborough. Our superintendent and school committee have said that snow days are snow days. There are many issues, including pay inequities between salaried staff and hourly staff.

        1. Captain…maybe not now but I bet at some point the practice of remote learning will be nationwide especially during snowstorms. A post-Covid world could be a lot different in many subtle ways in the classroom and adult workplace for better or worse. We will see.

  24. This will come down to a mile or two. I could see Logan with mixing and say West Roxbury with heavy snow.

      1. No, it had nothing to do with me. It was WHW. The message I received listed several possible reasons. Maybe TK can explain?

        No worries as it was only a couple of minutes.

  27. Exciting time to be a model watcher. Unless you’re a model watcher who has to put this into a forecast for a television audience!

  28. Latest NWS discussion about the snow and answers the above question of why WSW to the Cape.

    Heavy snow…

    Looking at the 00z CAM guidance, we are concerned about the
    potential for 1″+/hr snowfall rates across SE MA and RI for the Mon
    evening commute. Impressive omega and 700-850 mb frontogenesis
    is maximized in the Dendritic Growth Zone of -12 to -18C just
    west of the I-95 corridor from PVD to BOS. HREF shows over 70%
    prob of 1″+/hr rates and even some probs of 2″+/hr rates Mon
    evening. NAM tries to hold on to the low-level cold air, which
    would delay the transition to rain. Should that materialize, SE
    MA and RI would get into the 8-12 inches zone. We blended in the
    NAM and NBM QPF for Mon 18z to Tue 6z, given the fire hose of
    moisture pointed at our region. This is evident in that QPF,
    PWAT and IVT are 90th percentile of NAEFS climatology overnight
    Mon into Tue. Then by Tue 06-12z, a potent mid level dry slot
    moves in and cutting off the heavy precip.

    Overall, have expanded Winter Storm Watches further south and eastto the Cape Cod Canal. There could also be a local minima between
    the Berkshires and Worcester Hills due to downsloping effect.

      2. Phillip,

        Here is my Reader’s digest version is this:

        In the case of this storm, the winds will be blowing from the East to Northeast from the coast up and over the elevated
        areas in and around Worcester. On the other side of the elevated area, the winds will be down sloping and when that happens, moisture can dry up or in this case lessen. Thus, there would be less snow, thus the term snow shadow.

        Here are some links discussing rain shadow. Same thing, just substitute snow as the precipitation type.

        https://sciencing.com/causes-rain-shadow-5061.html

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rain_shadow

  30. Long time lurker and first time poster. I have enjoyed both learning more about the weather and seeing the camaraderie among the regular posters. My question now is the likely snowfall in Natick. Not sure if we are the 128 belt or the 495 belt.

    1. I’ve always considered Natick to be more in the 128 or I-95 belt.

      Welcome to the comments section!

    2. I’d say you were closer to the 128 belt. I know technically you would be in between, but realistically closer to 128. Going out rt. 9, there is a fair distance between Natick and Southboro/Westboro where 495 is.

  31. 12Z GFS has rain snow line pass through Boston between
    1AM and 4 AM Tuesday morning.

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021013112/045/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

    by 7AM R/s line well N&W of Boston, all the way out to Worcester

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021013112/048/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

    Then it collapses back to the coast for a little more lighter accumulation

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021013112/051/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

    Total event Kuchera Snow

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021013112/063/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    1. Hmmm, good catch. I had dismissed any significant wind.

      51 knots -= 58.7 mph.

      Honestly, I don’t see that happening at all. If it were to happen with the heavy wet snow, we could have some serious issues.

    2. Just saw that on the soundings too. I love looking at cross sections of the atmosphere. One of my favorite things along with 500MB charts to look at to be honest.

  33. I still don’t like all of this model divergence. We are too close to the event and this makes me very concerned about BUST potential.

    1. High bust potential between 495 and 95 with emphasis being along the I95 corridor. Gradient will be extremely tight. Conversely, the deformation zone may be the dark horse.

  34. For the time being, I lean toward the higher end of my ranges posted above, highly dependent on the snowfall rates Monday evening. Not long after midnight the vast majority of the accumulation will have taken place.

      1. That’s how I’m seeing it too. It’s like some of those late winter early spring storms where when the thing ends, it flops to a few hours of drizzle. So yeah, who cares at that point. Thing for inside of 95 it seems to me is all about ratio and less about flip for how much accumulates. QPF will be there but ratios won’t be high.

      2. Pretty much. I don’t think (for most) this is a lot of rain on top of a lot of snow. I think for most it’s a decent snowfall followed by insignificant rain/mix. For areas that change sooner, obviously a more significant rain, but much less snow for it to fall into. Also, no flash freeze after it. A freeze of sorts, yes. But the temps are not going to plunge to arctic levels as this departs…. Middle 20s to lower 30s for low temps Wed AM and most areas go back above freezing Wed PM followed by late-week moderation. We’re certainly not going to be in Glacierville this time around. Nevertheless, quite a few folks will be dealing with a substantial snowfall. If Boston gets to 6 inches, which they may, they’re well on their way to my seasonal forecast range for 2020-2021, with quite a bit of time left in the “snow season”.

        1. thanks TK. DO you believe Logan can make it to 6 inches?
          Personally, I do not. But we shall see.

          What do you think is in the cards for JP?

          8 or 9 inches or so?

          Thanks

          1. They can, but I think they may just miss it. I have them in a 3-6 band, which is very narrow, leaving very very little margin for error.

            1. 3-6 makes perfect sense to me. I thought they would come it at 5, but now thinking perhaps 3 or 4. I dunno. This business is IMPOSSIBLE around here.

              Always a double whammy around here.
              If it is not a warm layer aloft, it is the damn boundary layer. Unless of course the system in bumping into a solid arctic air mass, which it is NOT doing this time around.

      3. But then there’s the pain of removing/shoveling the water logged snow. I’ll have to do all that when I return home from work Tuesday afternoon and maybe some that morning. Ugggggggggggh!!!

        Why can’t the city of Boston get fluffy snow for a change?

          1. It wasn’t as fluffy as it could have been. There was a bit of sleet or something else mixed in near the bottom if I recall.

                1. Maybe you are correct. I am remembering shoveling and there was a bit of weight to that snow. Not like heavy wet stuff, but more substantial than a fluff/powder snow. Maybe it was just heavy powder.

  37. Lates SREF ensemble Snow for Boston:

    Mean: 6.50 inches
    High: 15.41 inches
    Low: 1.38 inches

    Take out the extremes and we have 4-8 inches left. RIght on target for Logan.

      1. The 3-6 for the city is an excellent range I think an 8-12 range is higher definitely the higher range In my opinion . I’m happy that as of now it looks like I’ll get out possibly Tuesday ( maybe am ) vs staying at the hospital till Wednesday.

        1. What makes me nervous is the sharpness of the gradient. I wish I could be super confident in the 3-6 I have for the airport, but I’m not. I think the western side of the city fits in the 6+ zone.

    1. So, regional UKMET forecast summary: “Snow accumulations of 0 to 20 inches.” See what we deal with? 😉

  40. I’m hoping for rain or quick change to rain in eastern Marshfield.

    We’ve had our fair share of heavy wet snow with wind and I have zero interest in experiencing that again.

      1. I guess that makes me a resident of the Urn of Wob. That almost sounds like something you’d want to plant flowers in….

  42. I am preparing which means the UKMET may be right because I’ll jinx the area. Power bricks are charged. Propane bombolas shut off. One exposed outdoor heated to be moved.

    And I’m enjoying the pre-snow sky TK noted in his discussion.

    WxWatcher, thinking of you as I cannot imagine the craziness along with level of anticipation in a NWS office. Hope there are a few seconds to just enjoy.

  43. Question. Or rather advice. My oldest teaches at an equestrian facility in millis Monday evening. She would be driving from millis to Uxbridge around 7:30 tomorrow night. Having read the NWS report of possible inch an hour late evening, I’d appreciate a guess after how bad that hour on rt 16 might be

    Thank you !!!

    3. Where is this facility in Millis? Curious having grown up there.
      There used to be something at the corner of Middlesex and Ridge Streets.

  45. In terms of snow days I have a very strong opinion that they should be days off and should stay. They are true days off unlike the so called vacations and weekends. Teachers would assign us so much crap for the weekends that you spent half the time working on the homework. Vacations, they love to assign big projects. Summer its reading and math packets. Snow days are unexpected days off so teachers didn’t have the ability to assign projects or homework. The kids are already done with their assignments that were due that day. Schools already take up so much time while wasting a good portion of the time they already have. There is a reason why some countries in Europe have gone for 4 day school weeks.

    Any way you all could have a good snow storm up there.

    My current thoughts on the storm. Some of the guidance really liking the idea of stalling the low south of the area for a bit as well as the low jumping around.
    https://twitter.com/Souza101Matt/status/1355938047016259584

    I wish I could enjoy the snow but instead I am at the beach Partly sunny temperature 77 degrees humidity at 55% with a north breeze at 10 gusting to 20 at times.

    2. Enjoy the beach and I agree de snow days. For teachers and students. Heaven knows both groups have gone above and beyond this year and a fun surprise day would be great.

      1. agreed and not to mention those teachers with kids of their owns that would have to help/deal with them as well. Its just not a good idea period. I know some are saying it would be a good thing in terms of the summer vacation happening on time etc but its not like they use those last days anyway. those last days even in high school usually ended up being used for watching movies lol as the stuff we did miss on the snow days we just had it added the following day on top of the stuff we were going to already have to do for that day. Snow days rarey changed the date of our final exams.

    1. I figured someone would bring that up.

      For the record, a colleague and I were chatting about medium range guidance’s inability to resolve disturbances between air masses with the set-up we’re going to have next week. That particular storm is probably quite fictional, but is a representation of unsettled weather along that boundary area.

  48. Looking over the satellite there is a firehose of precip straight out of the GOM. Impressive moisture fetch. Curious to see what we end up for QPF.

  49. Thanks TK for the discussion and Dave for the model posts. We are skiing at Killington today. Beautiful bluebird day and snow conditions are great.

    Not a whole lot of change in the models today. Looks like a good thump for pretty much everybody with the highest totals in Worcester county and western New England. Hoping my area is good for at least 8-10”. Will be a fun day tomorrow watching the radar, rain/snow line, and the snow hole which hopefully does not form over me!

  50. Oh and look at what the 12z EURO spit out around Monday the 7th and 8th of February after a snow/rain event Friday.

  54. Nice work of fiction by the Euro today for about 8 days from now. Yes, there is potential for unsettled weather Feb 6-8 though. This is a great example of an over-representation by medium range guidance when we have a contrast. This probably would end up as a large area of overrunning precipitation with much less “low pressure”. 🙂 As noted above, I was discussing this issue with a colleague a couple days ago and they made note that we’d probably see a system like this show up on guidance soon. Well, they were right. 😉

    2. I’ll take a long duration over running event. They can be nice snow producers without a deep low. We’ll take it anyway we can get it.

  55. Maybe I am looking for something that is not there, but the 18Z HRRR is looking a bit colder to me. Perhaps it’s too early to know? We shall see.

    1. 18Z HRRR shows it snowing at 1 inch per hour in Boston with ratios 5 or 6 to 1 !!! Pretty incredible!!

  56. I think TK has this handled really well. I am in pretty much total agreement with him. I don’ t think we have to get too cute with this one other than some parsing of the amounts within 3 miles of the coastline. There could be a rapid build up each mile inland or so. I might go a bit higher in areas of elevation west of the city. 10-14″ there versus a more general 6-10″ elsewhere. There is also going to be a very distinct CT Valley shadow. Some of those areas could end up in the 3-6″ range. Not particularly unusual and while I live there, not too many people do, so its a very is limited change in overall storm impact for most people. I also don’t think this thing is nearly as long duration as portrayed by some. I suspect daylight hours on Tuesday could have some snowflakes in the air, but limited to no additional accumulation

    I for one am not rooting for any significant storms that create interruptions of testing and vaccine distribution. For me personally, it is not the time to be wanting for such high impact weather events. Weather is going to do what weather is going to do, but given the current urgency of other needs, it would be helpful if it took a moment of mercy.

    2. Thank you JMA. I am not going to ask you to go into any detail, but regarding the unsettled weather opportunity in the Feb 6-8 period, do you have any feel this far out? We obviously know about the “models beyond day 3” rule. Somebody on Facebook alerted me to a weather page run by a non-met who is already going nuts hyping up a big storm signal for Feb 8, simply because it’s on ONE run of ONE model so far. If that isn’t a case of choosing the outcome you want which then becomes your forecast, then nothing is. No meteorology behind it – just looking at a model run and telling the “followers” (who they have nicely fooled) what the run says and that they saw it before any of the professionals. Yup. Sure ya did. 😉

      Anyway, any thoughts on that?

      1. Initial feel – deep trough west / plains, some riding in the southeast, does not create a set up that would take southern stream energy and eject it off the mid Atlantic coast. Combine this set up with the northern high placement at that time, IF there is significant storminess to be found with this system it most likely track west and the warmer air would temporarily penetrate well up into the northeast.

        1. A counterpoint: we have had many big storms on superbowl sundays or the days after that Tom has won. lol

        2. As to your other point. There has been a lot of discussion about truth on social media. Weather is a prediction and no one can 100% accurately predict the future, so technically they are not fake news, but when you always predict the most robust and dangerous outcome possible, when does it no longer become about being a weather enthusiast and instead wantonly using a media platform to be a weather alarmist?

            1. I even have some model support for my thinking, from the 12z ECMWF control run. I have used the control run a lot in 2020 and now 2021. Its lower resolution has done a better job smoothing out the ECMWF’s run to run inconsistency in the 5-10 day period.

              https://imgur.com/ar22UFa

  57. 18Z HRRR has the precip decidedly lighter by the 9-10 hour and then has it quit shortly thereafter. Not sure if it will pick up again.

    1. IF that’s the right scenario, and it may be, it’s pretty much done once it shuts off initially.

      1. that is what I was thinking.

        So we could potentially receive 1 inch per hour of cement for however long it thumps at that rate.

      1. I’m a little confused is this starting earlier tomorrow and not lingering into Tuesday? What are the ratios away from the coast JP? Thank you

        1. Short duration event from noon to midnight – generally less than 12 hours of accumulating snow. Snow ratios rise each mike away from the coast though it won’t be powdery anywhere. 6:1 coast to 10-12:1 inland.

      1. That’s Kuchera not the 10:1. I think we end up closer to 8:1 and about 2 inches of liquid, knock some of it for sleet and you get around 10 inches.

    2. I think rain definitely makes it into Boston. Heavier precipitation goes to Worcester county where they could easily exceed a foot plus . For Boston itself I think it’s timing like is it here snowing at 12pm or more like 4pm that’s the game changer before the turnover

      1. Aren’t you the guy who said not rain in Boston?

        turns out you “may” be right from yesterday. We shall see.

        18Z HRRR and NAM a tad colder than 12Z run.

        1. I could have I don’t remember old salty . As we see it keeps changing . I don’t think it’s in question now it’s just what time does it change .

  64. Above, when I post about ratios, it is for Boston. Sorry, if there
    was any confusion. Rates are higher inland.

  65. There is something up with the NAM OPF forecast and subsequent kuchera algorithm. Look at the snow depth and positive change maps and then apply what we believe we know about temperatures throughout the atmospheric column during the storm. Additionally take a look at those same maps on the 3k NAM.

    1. Yeah noticed that as well. I like the snow depth change a lot. NAM isn’t backing down clearly.

  67. DB….a little birdie said we have some new posters. I am sorry I missed you, but found your comment. Welcome to WHW!!!!

      3. They have been the most bullish consistently throughout all of this. I need to check out their 1 in 10 chance map because I would consider what they’re running with the 1 in 10 chance! lol

  71. To the north, there is high pressure. And, looking at the pressure contours, it is somewhat nosing down into New England as the precip shield approaches.

    It might just be enough to allow the majority of the heavy stuff fall as wet snow for Boston and to within a mile or so of the coast.

    The column is cold enough for a while and the ocean is only 41F and probably even colder within a few miles of the coast, so the boundary layer isn´t exactly going to zoom much past 35F or 36F and that might take a while to get to that value.

    1. I was noticing that. Boston buoy is at 40.6 degrees, so not too too bad. I think you may be correct.

      I am beginning to get excited about this one. I would NOT allow myself prior to now. I probably won’t go overboard until I see the 0Z guidance.

  73. The warm bias 18Z GFS has it RAINING along the coast by
    10 PM tomorrow night. GIMMIE A BREAK, will ya!!!

    This is the type of SHIT that prevents me from getting excited about this event. Personally, I think this GFS run blow chunks and should be thrown out the window. BUT, what if???????

    Kuchera Snow

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021013118/063/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    10:1 snow

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021013118/063/sn10_acc.us_ne.png

    Please excuse my while I vomit all over my computer monitor!!)@(*#&*!@&#*(&!@(*#&(*!@&#(*!&@*(#^!(*@^#&(!^@#&^!@(*#&*(!#*(!&@(#*&!*(@^#!^@#(*!*@&#*!&@#*(!&@#*&!(*@#&(*!&@(#*&!*(@#&(*!@#*(!(*@#&(*!@&#*(&(*&!(*@#^*^!@(&#^!(*@&#*(!^@#(*^!(@*^#(*!^@#(*^!(@*#&*

    1. This fakakta model divergence is driving me up the wall!
      I can’t stand it!!! I mean I expect difference, but not this much.

      Based on what I see, my gut says primarily Snow Boston N& W with mixing and mix to rain SE of Boston. Setting myself up
      for disappointment for sure.

    1. I am not buying what that model is selling.

      FWIW, the JMA Looks solid for snow and the HRDPS coming out now, looks good so far, especially in comparison to the RDPS.

      1. Won’t be on here tonight. Will be watching PBS with the Mrs.

        All Creatures Great and Small On Masterpiece
        Episode 4
        Long Song On Masterpiece
        Episode 1

        May be able to sneak in between 8 and 9 PM. 🙂

          1. HRRR says 11AM to Noon
            NAM says Noon to 1PM
            GFS says 1PM to 2PM

            So, I guess we could say 11AM to 2PM. In that window somewhere.

  77. Thank you TK!
    Perhaps you or one of the other great minds on the blog here can explain to me why with this storm the snow shadow seems more prominent than it is with other nor easters. Does it have to do with the location of the lows and the energy transfer from the upper level low to the coastal low?

    1. Not a great mind, but I’ll comment if you don’t mind.

      That is an excellent question.

      I think you have partially answered it as I believe it was mentioned elsewhere, either by TK or perhaps by one of the NWS discussions. It may have to do with a little more Easterly component to the winds rather than a more Northerly component causing some subsidence (sinking air) to the West
      of the Worcester area Hills.

  79. Harvey a lot more bullish tonight on snow totals than I would be at this point. Not saying he is wrong, just bullish. Quite comfortable saying 8-10″ for Boston.

  81. Thanks for the welcome, Vicky. The best news I have seen all day is that the snow ratio climbs a bit away from the coast. Maybe if it bumps up a bit in metro west, I can save my back. Still looking at 6-10 around 128?

  82. Pete is about half of Harvey along coast. He’s giving Boston/coastline about 4-8.” Pete also giving Jamaica Plain 8-10.”

  83. Thank you, TK.

    I fear that the snow will be quite water-logged in the coastal plain. Dangerous to shovel for those with cardiac conditions, or at risk. So, do be careful.

  85. Just spoke with my sister who lives in Vermont. They’ve had only a few nights in the single digits this season, which is worrisome. Why? Ticks. They’re on the increase in Northern New England, especially, and they’re responsible for killing numerous moose. To eradicate ticks, you need consistently very cold temperatures, and with the exception of 2015 they’re not getting this and haven’t for many years. https://vtfishandwildlife.com/conserve/conservation-planning/animal-inventory/mammals/moose-population-study

    1. I have a friend who majority of his time hiking, camping. And also did a lot of research re ticks when we moved to Sutton since I hear Sutton is the tick capital of MA

      Ticks don’t die in winter. They can go dormant or find a host…moose….or burrow. I suspect just folks may not have noticed this in the past. Or more likely, the snow cover is not as consistent as it was in past decades so ticks could surface, burrow and resurface

        1. Hahaha. That’s burrow in the ground !!!

          Not as much as watching my daughter pull them off my grands. Or her. We have a treatment that only does yard perimeter. Nothing in yard where kids play. They don’t go on the hill behind the house In summer. It is loaded with ticks. And when they come in from playing now or sledding they are checked carefully. Nasty little creatures.

  88. JPD thanks for chiming in on my question. That would make some sense. I still find it hard to understand how the Worcester hills which are not much more than 1000 feet can wring out that much moisture, especially if the east winds off the ocean are moisture laden.

  89. A stationary Scandinavian high looks to set up shop by the end of this week – say, around the 7th of February. This means much colder than normal temperatures (and an unusual dominant east/north wind) across the low countries (Netherlands and Belgium). Usually when this happens, we (SNE) are relatively mild. We’ll see what happens this time.

    1. Also, it’s very common for the weather there to be almost unchanged from day to day for fairly long stretches (1-2 weeks or more) while the Scandinavian high sits there. Hence the Dutch meteorological institute’s long-range projection of cold, calm, and partly sunny weather from the 7th through at least the 14th of February. Until the 7th the usual prevailing southwesterly is the theme, with temps mostly in the 40s.

  90. 00z HRRR absolutely hauls that precip shield north and dry slot in here, reaching Boston around 10PM. Every run of that model seems to be a bit earlier with the onset & the ending.

        1. It means that this particular run of this model moves the heaviest precipitation out of Boston by 10. That doesn’t necessarily mean the heaviest precipitation will be over by 10. 😉 That remains to be seen.

    2. Those are students. My oldest and the owner are the only two teachers/trainers. If I may be a proud mom, The owner had never had anyone other than herself teach …my daughter teaches the younger riders….or train the horses…daughter is training a few horses…..on a large pony that just came over from ireland. The two of them have the exact same gentle approach.

      It does look like heartland. My granddaughter is counting the minutes until the new heartland seasons come out.

          1. Dry slot slightly quicker plus 1F warmer and a projection of 14 probably turns into 9, a projection of 10 turns into 5-6, etc ………….

              1. Meaning I don’t think we’re going to see the 12 km NAM go back to spitting out unrealistic snowfall #’s from here on. Methinks whatever was busted is now fixed.

    2. 1.2 earthquake reported in Jamaica Plain at 9:16 pm

      🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      2. I believe that quake was accompanied by audible sounds that sounded like muffled swearing.

  96. It’s entertaining watching the reactions on each run, you can see exactly what everyone wants/wishes to have happen. In the end I have no skin in the game. I would much rather have no snow so people can get their vaccine the next two days, but it’s going to do what’s it going to do.

    Either way at least we have had some fun tracking a system.

    1. I don’t wish anything except to have as accurate a forecast as possible and to have everybody safe when the storm is over. 🙂

      2. We all know you can’t wish weather. You can simply enjoy. That pretty much goes without saying. 🙄

        That said …..I’d like to hear from OS 🙁

  97. And the WHW award for the best work of fiction for 00z goes to the RDPS model for its 2-4 inches of sleet in eastern MA Tuesday. HAHAHAHAHAHA! Comedy fiction at that! 😉

  98. I live about a mile from the coast, perhaps a bit more. My guess is the storm last week in which I measured 4.5 inches of snow (granted it was fluffy) will be more than I measure from this one. I think I’ll get 4 inches of glop. But, JP and Roslindale could see twice that. And Sutton twice what they get in JP. I think that anywhere from Plymouth to Nantucket there will be less than 2 inches, if that. And the rain will wash that away.

    Interestingly, because the storm is hitting NYC already overnight and the receding cold is stillin place NYC will very likely have more snow than Boston. The timing of the receding cold has always been a wild card with this storm. The storm is coming, but the cold is leaving and what’s behind the storm is not that cold. This, in my humble opinion, makes any forecast tricky, especially for the coastal plain.

    1. Of course, without instruments (or only rudimentary ones) and forecasting models, try imagine how difficult a storm like this would have been for the pilgrims who settled in Plymouth. You have several days of cold with temps barely making it into the low to mid 20s, you then see thickening clouds on the horizon, you had to be thinking it’s going to snow and not mix or change over to rain. That’s the only logical inference, if you will. I’m sure the winter storms baffled the settlers.

      1. Even in 1938, my mom and her mom headed to Boston from Belmont in the morning for a day of shopping ….and came home in the middle of a hurricane. And when I was five (1954) My dad headed to work in Boston while we were vacationing at Humarock because hurricane Carol was ONLY in NC and Ned be back in time. We needed to be evacuated before he returned.

  99. The three WRF models for 00z, which I affectionately refer to as “The Three Stooges”,are displaying maxima of 6-12, 6-12, and 8-14 just inland from the E MA coast. The 8-14 has to be Moe – always high strung. 😉

          1. WP emojis are weird. Some that should work do not ans others that should not work do.

            ❄️❄️❄️❄️☃️☃️

            Will see if these keyboard emojis work

  106. Not sure what the 00z Canadian is smoking but after the initial front end thump of heavy snow tomorrow, it shows the storm redeveloping off the Cape Tuesday night into a 976 mb bomb with a second round of heavy precip in the form of sleet/ice from RI right up the coast to Downeast Maine.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype&rh=2021020100&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Kuchera snowmap:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2021020100&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Would be great but not buying it!

  107. What time do we think driving will be impacted in Concord / Rt 2 area? Have to trek back and forth from our new place in Westford to Fenn – 1 pm dismissal. Ugh / I still dread driving in snow…

    1. Vulnerable any time after about noon. With a little luck the dry air will take longer to overcome.

  108. Talk about a model blowing itself up…did you see the 00z HRDPS!? Does the same thing as the Canadian on Tuesday only stronger and backs a mega death band in all the way to the Berkshires. Wouldn’t that be fun…lol.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021020100&fh=46

    Snow through 48 hours and not done…

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2021020100&fh=48

      1. Any chance these models are on to something? Obviously not to the extent shown….but the basic idea of a secondary low taking over on Tuesday and generating a second round of accumulating precip?

  111. This thing seems way ahead of schedule Been snowing steadily now for 4 hours and is picking up in intensity. Already closing in on an inch. It’s a fluffy powdery snow. Sitting at 20F.

  113. Very early start here in Mansfield. Left the house at 3 am snowing and picking up in intensity. I did not see anywhere that the start was going to be before day break let alone 3 am

  115. Hello all. First of all, thank you all for the comic relief.
    Sadly, I never reacted the way you all portrayed. Believe it or not, I have been open to any result with this storm. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    It will do what it will do and there is nothing we can do about it.

    Now for the action.

    FIRST Flakes are falling here in JP. Very light, but it is SNOWING already none-the-less!!!!

    And it is not ocean snow as it is moving in from the SW.

    Just a tad early, no?

    1. No sooner did I post than I see on radar that the dry air is eating
      away at the snow advance. Although a few flakes are falling, looks like I am hours away from any meaningful snow.

  116. 10Z HRRR is way up over the 6Z run. I think the 12Z runs will reflect a colder/snowier solution.

    And, here’s rooting for those Canadian solutions!

  117. I am seeing a HUGE discrepancy between the Pivotal Weather Kuchera Snow amounts and the College of Dupage Kuchaera Snow.

    Example: 6Z NAM
    For Boston.

    Pivotal Weather: 5.1 inches
    COD: 12.1

    That is NOT a subtle difference. So which algorithm is correct?

  118. BTW, with all of the poo pooing of the Candadian models,
    the 6NAM, 9Z RAP and to some extent the 6Z HRRR are
    showing that follow-up feature, of course not as strong as the Canadians, BUT it is there.

  120. Ok, the fact that the HRRR suddenly jumps up to unrealistic #’s when NWS comes down a little is a clear signal to jump off the HRRR train. It’s a-gonna crash… 😉

  121. I just read the HRR is too dry( not by much) and the NAM has been too wet(not by much) so far for verification purposes in the mid Atlantic?

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