DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 1-5)
Welcome to February! We start the second month of 2021 off with a winter storm. The timing of the event has been slipping a little more to the earlier side with time, and we’ve already had some snow from the evolving system falling in parts of southern New England, even some minor accumulation, but it will continue to fight a dry air mass over the region and take several hours to really get going and make a solid push northward. At the same time, some ocean-effect snow showers may be drifting in from the east. Looking at the temperature profile this morning, with 30s over Cape Cod and 10s over interior southern New England, we’re probably already looking at the formation of a coastal front, probably a little further west than we typically see it. This will allow snow that falls over interior MA and northeastern CT and maybe northwestern RI, well as interior southern NH to be a little fluffier and pile up better, whereas snow that falls east of that boundary will be a wetter variety. We’ll have to monitor for where the exact set-up of this boundary is, but my best guess is the I-495 belt for the longest period of time. But, the east winds are occurring really over Cape Cod as of 7 a.m., with winds from the northeast or north elsewhere, so the boundary itself is probably setting up to the southeast of Boston initially before it migrates westward with time. I’m still expecting the strongest band of precipitation to push from south to north through the region from early afternoon to early evening in southern areas (CT, RI, southern MA) and later afternoon into late evening in areas to the north (central to northern MA into southern NH). I am not making any big changes to the snow amounts I posted yesterday, other than adding an inch or two and allowing for a little more fluff factor over inland areas, and of course the rain/snow line will be monitored as it certainly looks like it will be involved over Cape Cod and into parts of the MA South Shore, and then we’ll see how far it can get beyond that. It may never quite have enough push to get into or through the Boston area until after the heaviest precipitation has shut down anyway, so here is an updated run-down of my expected snowfall accumulation after we’re done with that main band of precipitation late tonight…
Up to 2 inches outer Cape Cod, 2-4 inches remainder of Cape Cod and immediate South Coast to the eastern side of Buzzards Bay and South Shore of MA up to Plymouth, as well as the upper part of Cape Ann MA, 4-8 inches immediate NH Seacoast to immediate North Shore of MA, Logan Airport, interior southeastern MA to Narragansett Bay, 8-12 inches most of RI and northeastern CT as well as south central MA northeastward through Metro Boston and up to northeastern MA and southeastern NH away from the immediate coast, and 12-16 inches north central MA through southwestern NH, highest amounts in the higher elevations. It’s important to keep in mind the sharp snowfall gradient expected in eastern areas and that on-the-fly adjustments may be needed as very subtle changes in the overall storm behavior leads to significant changes in snowfall amounts in these sharp gradient areas.
As far as coastal impact from the storm, we’ll have to keep an eye on the today’s afternoon high tide for some minor flooding in southern coastal MA and RI but not expecting a big issue, then minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding with both high tide cycles Tuesday on east-facing and north-facing shores especially. And to summarize the power outage risk, it will be there, but I don’t expect widespread problems, since the areas with the greatest snow accumulation now look like they may have a little bit of a drier consistency to the snow at least to start out. However do expect enough sticky snow to fall in at least parts of the region for potential power disruptions. The strongest wind gusts being along the coast and especially Cape Cod may also contribute to some power outages there as well.
Looking ahead, we stay unsettled Tuesday with scattered rain/snow showers in a slightly milder atmosphere, before colder air sneaks back in on Wednesday and the energy from the original low pressure area comes across with the potential for some morning snow or snow showers, though that does not look like significant additional snowfall – more nuisance variety. The rest of Wednesday should turn dry, breezy, and chilly behind the departing complex storm system before high pressure moves in for a nice winter day on Thursday, allowing any remaining storm cleanup to finish up. By Friday, it’s back to unsettled weather, but this time its from low pressure passing northwest of New England. Its warm front may cause brief rain/mix/snow early before we warm up and see a risk of rain showers ahead of an approaching cold front.
TODAY: Overcast. Patchy light snow anywhere and a few snow showers off the ocean possible in eastern MA this morning. Steady snow arriving south to north from late morning through early afternoon across the entire area, may mix with rain quickly over Cape Cod. Highs ranging from near 20 in north central MA an southwestern NH to near 35 Cape Cod. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH interior areas, NE to E increasing to 10-20 MPH coastal areas with higher gusts especially southeastern MA.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Moderate to heavy snow except mix coast and rain Cape Cod evening, tapering off to a few rain/snow showers south to north overnight. Temperatures rise to 27-34 except 35-42 coastal areas, warmest Cape Cod. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH with gusts as high as 30 MPH inland, 15-25 MPH with gusts as high as 40 MPH coastal areas, except 25-35 MPH with gusts 50-60 MPH Cape Cod.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Occasional rain & snow showers. Highs 35-42 morning, falling slightly in the afternoon. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH coastal areas except 45-55 MPH Cape Cod, especially in the morning and midday.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Additional mix/snow showers evening. Lows 25-32. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow or snow showers morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32.Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A touch of rain/mix/snow possible in the morning. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind SE up to 10 MPH morning, SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 6-10)
Colder air moves back into the region during the February 6-7 weekend but not as cold as the air mass we are just getting rid of now, so while there is the chance of unsettled weather from 1 or 2 low pressure areas impacting the region through early February 8, the precipitation type and timing is indeterminate at this point and this forecast will be brought into focus over the next few days. Expecting fair and colder weather to return later February 8 through February 9 with a moderation in temperature by the end of the period when we’ll have to watch for a bit of unsettled weather.
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 11-15)
Temperatures look a little more moderate heading into mid month. Next unsettled weather threat comes during the middle of this period, but this remains a low confidence forecast with only vague ideas possible for now. More evaluation of the mid month pattern can be done after we get by the current storm.
https://stormhq.blog/2021/02/01/weekly-outlook-february-1-7-2021/?fbclid=IwAR0Sw4BfzETc3HqE1qk4odZiLmWrvVPQPNiiU3X0UMfgfIXgOtfqiRSbOwU
Thanks TK. Just opening eyes. Was surprised to see a solid costing here on all surfaces.
Thanks TK! Just a bit of flakiness here. No accumulation yet.
Good morning and thank you YK for another detailed discussion.
Although I saw a few flakes earlier this morning, not seeing anything at the moment.
Just about to kick into now casting. Of course will be looking
at the 12Z guidance.
Sorry, the YK was a typo. 🙂 YK => TK
Thanks TK !
Looking forward to seeing what happens.
February, yay ! Only 3.5 months of winter to go ………
A weather event is always fun, but in the time we are in now, extra laughs are like gold. Thanks for those Tom.
My pleasure.
🙂
ROTFLMAO!!!!
You’re too funny Tom.
Groundhog dependent. Final call tomorrow. 😉
Final snowfall forecast maps: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EtI6reyW8AIN52W?format=jpg&name=large
Your highness, sir, these are invaluable. Thank you.
You are very much welcome!
Thanks Dr. S. It appears that Ch. 4 has increased snow totals for Boston just a bit. Before I left this morning it was 4-8 inches. Now it’s 6-9”.
All look pretty much the same as night, save for minor adjustments. All look reasonable. Looks like our Mets
have done a decent job. Now let’s see if they verify.
Lurker here and I just wanted to tell you how much I appreciate the time you take to put all the different totals forecast into one place. Between the blog and this, I think I’m covered.
🙂
The Ch. 25 met last night mentioned the possibility NYC will get a “Top 10” snowstorm out of this.
Hard to believe that NYC and Philly getting considerably more snow than Boston given the storm track just south of Nantucket. They get all snow and we get “snow to rain”. Go figure.
At least JPD should be well satisfied. Either side of a foot for the JP neighborhood? 🙂
Philip rain may not even make it up to Boston it’s not a lock .
Geography a bit and location relative to low pressure.
2) NYC gets more of a NE to N wind, while Boston has more of an E or ENE wind due to location relative to the low.
1) A NE wind in New York City is a land breeze, while in Boston, its off of the water.
Thanks, Tom I suspected there was an explanation but had no idea what.
Don’t see rain here expect some light sprinkles at the end.
Thanks TK.
Thanks TK.
Can´t help but notice that all the down east Maine, as well as northern and central Maine continue to see small pressure RISES.
This indicates a bridged bubble of high pressure still has a piece extending back to the northwest of Maine.
Might be that small thing that keeps the immediate coast a tiny bit colder than modeled, since the bridged high will not have fully moved away.
Also, inland temps in southern Maine and NH are very, very cold, so, I wouldn´t be shocked by that coastal front having some back and forth movements during the event that make some communities see sudden temp drops after having some time on the eastern side of the coastal front.
But good ol’ Marshfield is already at 36F which is always a “snow killer” for Boston eventually. 😉
Yes, after the last 3 days, it feels downright balmy down here.
In fact, the roads are a bit wet, condensation I believe, from the above freezing, somewhat humid air, going over what are probably very cold pavement temperatures.
Thanks, TK…
Middleborough schools are working a half-day with dismissal at 11:30.
Foxborough schools (where Mrs. Fantastic is a subsitute teacher) are being dismissed one hour early.
Same here in Marshfield.
HS out around 11:15
MS around 11:45
Elementary Schools 12:15
Those dismissed students could run into the snow Tom do you think . Off to doctors soon & need to hustle into work after .
They could. Hopefully, midday daytime brightness on the dark pavement can be somewhat effective up to 2 or 3pm to help everyone get a jump on the initial waves of snow.
Good thinking for both districts. 🙂
Mrs. Fantastic leaves at 1:25 and has to commute back to Taunton.
I am nervous that the storm could be ramping up big time then.
Rob Carolan said this morning that folks should be off the roads by noon.
Payers for Mrs Fantastic, mama Mia, two of mine and all who are on the roads later today.
2nd that and thanks to Mrs. Fantastic for being a substitute teacher !
Wow, in a non-covid setting, a lot is thrown at them. Now, they also have so many other things on their plates.
She is the only sub in her old middle school. She retired in June, 2019. She works every day.
I´m guessing she loves it.
Subs sure are a treasure now.
Spellman went remote today
Sutton and Uxbridge are remote today.
Well, here we go again,
12Z HRRR DOWN on the snow again and goes to rain around Midnight,
Kuchera Snow
https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2021020112/034/snku_acc.us_ne.png
10:1 snow
https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2021020112/035/sn10_acc.us_ne.png
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjBkMO5SnHc
HRRR must have been quite high before, because I feel like I see purple (6 inches) all the way to the immediate coast on the south shore and to the Cape Bridges.
Back and forth, let’s watch radar and go from there.
Speaking of, I am still struggling to get used to the new NWS radar.
I really miss the old one, especially today.
Let’s call it what it is.
Unusable.
My biggest struggles have been that it doesn´t fully load. I don´t know if that happens for everyone or its something about my computer.
But, I´ll select the radar and multiple pieces of the region the radar covers never come in. Its not that its not precipitating, its like a rectangular panel or 2 are missing.
On the computer, I use this link:
https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/ma/boston/box
Don’t click on the rain/snow feature as it is USELESS!!
But the radar is great.
On my phone, RadarScope is my go to radar app.
Thanks !
Radarscope is sooooo good.
Agree
What we looking at in the Woo
Thanks TK
The snow is coming down and so far it is the powdery snow which I hope it stays that way as it will be easier to move. It is looking like a foot or little more than a foot for my area which if that happens would be the second storm of the winter to produce that much snow.
Will watch this as it moves further north.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0051.html
I very much like that we are holding onto a NORTH wind at Boston. How long it lasts is the question.
This might be a situation NYC ends up with more snow than Boston.
Thanks TK.
2.1″ of snow here so far in Coventry CT. I consider this “bonus snow” at this point as I wasn’t really expecting much till after daybreak. Snowing lightly now and 25F. It’s a very light and powdery snow so far.
Kids are on a remote learning snow day that ends about 12:30.
Mark looking at some of the short range models CT looks much better in the snow department than it did a couple weeks ago.
sure does, especially my area!
Thank you, TK.
12Z NAM Kuchera Snow from Pivotal
https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021020112/084/snku_acc.us_ne.png
10:1
https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021020112/084/sn10_acc.us_ne.png
Boston Ave. Snow ratio: 6.6
12Z 3KM NAM Kuchera Snow
https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2021020112/060/snku_acc.us_ne.png
10:1
https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2021020112/060/sn10_acc.us_ne.png
Ave Boston Ratio: 6.3
I want to repeat the the Kuchera snow on the COD site is MUCH HIGHER! !!!!!
I’ll post some in a few
I was just looking at that some more.
It may be a scale issue and which observation city is used.
Pivotal I think has a number displayed for Boston while
COD site has the number displayed for Bedford. I think that
accounts for much of the discrepancy. However, looking very closely, I think there is still some, but not as glaring as the
comparing 2 different locations.
As an example, I’ll give you the 12Z NAM Kuchera Snow for Pivotal and College of Dupage and you be the judge.
Pivotal
https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021020112/084/snku_acc.us_ne.png
College of DuPage
https://imgur.com/a/CcXxKsq
Click on the above image to enlarge
Thanks TK!
JPD I just started using radar scope this summer on your recommendation and I can’t be more satisfied with that product. It is also my go to radar and I have a few to choose from. I like the relative velocity feature during severe weather to depict rotation, such a great tool. I find it really depicts the snow intensity using super- res reflectivity tilt 1.
TK was the one who suggested that I pick it up.
I agree with you 100%. It is awesome!
Wow is that radar sweet. Just subscribed.
No more annoying NWS and WU.
Welcome to the 21st century. Any weather enthusiasts CANNOT be without RadarScope on their phones!!!
So where is the snow? This morning the tv mets kept touting the start time of 8-9 am for Boston. I thought to myself that timeframe was mighty early anyway.
Dry air eating away at precip I suspect.
About an hour or two away from the steady stuff.
no flakes yet and temp is up to 36 in East Bridgewater.
A few flakes back in the air here in JP.
No real snow yet.
AH CRAP!!! I spoke too soon.
Logan’s wind has gone to just NE to ENE, I’d day 55 degrees.
AND temperature has SHOT up to 32!
Still at 28 here and I hope it stays that way!!!!
Still North at Norwood, but DUE EAST atop Blue Hill!!!
NOT a good sign.
Yup! Been 32 here in Sharon for the last hour. The longer that low sits and spins off the Delmarva, the more warm air gets ushered up here.
Indeed. Ocean at 40.46 Degrees at Boston Buoy
Once we get into the good snow, it will mitigate that quite a bit. I think even Logan can hover between 32 and 34 with
higher intensity snow coming down. As long as the warmer
air doesn’t get in at the 850mb level or any other level up
there for that matter.
It is coming down at a moderate clip where I am. NYC Northern NJ it is snowing quite hard.
Logan up to 34 !!!!
Still 28 here.
The blow torch GFS is spitting out data.
37 at Marshfield airport.
The GFS looks PATHETIC!! It gets worse with each successive run!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It looks almost TROPICAL!! GIMMIE A BREAK!!!!!!
Hahaha let’s see the maps. I count on your links when I’m at work since most sites are blocked.
https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021020112/084/snku_acc.us_ne.png
https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021020112/015/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png
https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021020112/018/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png
You are a gentleman and a scholar. I’d love for this to verify but you know I’m no snow fan. And no way is this the solution… as much as I would like it to be.
I agree. Well, let’s say that I highly doubt that
this GFS solution will verify. Down your way, I think you will definitely get less snow than here and most especially West of here. 🙂
Check out the radar over north-central NJ and eastern PA. We’ve found the mega band!
Here ya go
https://imgur.com/a/qZhED3E
We have a pretty decent band approaching our South Coast. 🙂
Up to 33 here.
Retrac if you like it now wait until you track severe thunderstorms with it. 🙂 we have a lot a weather today so this will be a great day to explore it’s features. Enjoy!!
12Z HREF 24 Hour Mean Snow fall ending 12Z tomorrow AM
https://imgur.com/a/nWls9MN
10-12 inches right at the coast! Take that Mr. GFS!
The wind is back to NE at Logan, at least for now. Probably too little, too late.
Where did you see that. I still see it at ENE at 24 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
As of 11:00 am obs. Did it switch back around that quick?
If you look at the RAW observation data you will see that the text on your display said NorthEast, but the raw
data said 060 Degrees which is ENE. But 60 is better than 70, 80 or 90.
000
SAUS70 KWBC 011600 RRX
MTRBOS
METAR KBOS 011554Z 06022G27KT 10SM OVC027 01/M03 A3015 RMK AO2 PK WND
06027/1553 SLP208 T00111033
Logan is a mess for overall observations. Not too late for many areas just away from the coast.
Up to 29 in JP’s neighborhood.
15Z HRRR has Boston go to sleet at 10PM
Saw that but again I think bulk of the heavy stuff is long gone by then. We get out 10-12 from now through 10 PM
15Z HRRR Kuchera Snow as of Midnight.
https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2021020115/014/snku_acc.us_ne.png
12Z GDPS Kuchera Snow
https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2021020112/066/snku_acc.us_ne.png
10:1 snow
https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2021020112/066/sn10_acc.us_ne.png
YUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK!
Well if that happens a lot of unhappy folks.
We’ll know soon enough.
I’m just waiting for the snow and watch it pile up to see how much we can pull off before any changeover. 🙂
SNOW is knocking at my door. 🙂
We will do just fine. Wish we were on Retrac side of the front.
I get my weather observations at the NWS page that updates every hour.
11:00 am obs. NE 25G31
Where do you get yours JPD?
See above as you can get it at that site. Click on the RAW data.
But here is a better site with 5 minute updates so you don’t have to wait an hour.
https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?state=MA&rawsflag=3
Woodbridge NJ…
https://twitter.com/JohnKocherIII/status/1356274215880708103?s=20
Well on their way to 2-3 feet of snow
Bergenfield NJ webcam…just pounding snow:
https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/usa/new-jersey/river-railway-line-bergenfield.html
2 thumbs up for that one.
Matt Noyes NBC10 Boston & NECN
@MattNBCBoston
7m
I’ve drawn the lines here, but am following nature’s cues. Warmer ocean air evident, matches precisely with the area we have heavier, wetter but lower accumulations forecast. Cold side goes 12-16. Game on, lingering questions will just be exactly how little coast, how much inland
https://twitter.com/MattNBCBoston/status/1356279269392064517?s=20
Not too shabby. Let’s see how close he is in the end.
Mark northern NJ NYC area look to be the jackpot.
When this is done I believe NY will lead Boston in the snowfall standings.
About the only thing they might lead Boston in 🙂
Latest SREF shows a mean snow amount of 7.1 inches for Boston.
36 down here I’m not liking it as it’s too warm
It will cool at the precip comes in. DP are low.
Eric Fisher
@ericfisher
1h
Classic coastal front setting up shop. Temps will stay at/above freezing near the water the whole storm, with 20s to near 30 and easier snow to move (and accumulate) west of it
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1356263676836270080?s=20
He is reporting rain on the islands and someone replied to him mentioning rain in Chatham and maybe zigging into Cambridge. I just messaged so to see what it is doing around museum of science area. May or may not hear back since he is working.
Can’t tell much from this Web Cam
https://www.earthcam.com/usa/massachusetts/boston/?cam=boston_hd
In central Marshfield, visibility coming down, it’s snowing lightly.
In eastern Marshfield, visibility is excellent and it’s a light rain/snow mix.
Rain/snow mix. Should go over to snow once it gets a bit heavier.
Jumped to 34 here in JP’s Neighborhood. Bummer!
Snow better get going before it goes up anymore.
Logan has been holding at 34 for some time now.
DP 29
Hoping we get to 31-32 once the snow gets going.
Video from Manhattan under that death band a short time ago. Near blizzard conditions…
https://www.flickr.com/photos/blizzardgeek/50898719417
Love it!! I want me some of that!
A few wind blown flakes are flying here again.
Live EMS video feed from Queens…those cars are getting buried already!
https://youtu.be/n9hq7pRuKaE
Looks like near a foot already.
That band is going to mean business all over the region.
Another YUCK JOB!
12Z UKMET 10:1 Snow
https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ukmet/2021020112/078/sn10_acc.us_ne.png
What has this become a battle of the Short range Hi-Res models vs the medium range global models?
Go with the hi-res short range models and NOW CASTING!
OK, I got a steady light snow going on now.
So it “should” snow from now until about 10PM to perhaps 1 or 2AM, depending on model guidance. So it is a question of how intense the snow will get and for how long.
Agree and yes go with your eye vs. anything else right now 🙂
CT shoreline now getting crushed. 2″ in the last hour in Fairfield with 7″ on the ground and 30 mph wind gusts,
Still just light snow/flurries here in Coventry after 2″ overnight. Up to 27F.
IEMBot PHI
@iembot_phi
8m
At 11:00 AM EST, Somerville [Somerset Co, NJ] TRAINED SPOTTER reports SNOW of 17.50 INCH. AVERAGE OF 3.6 INCHES PER HOUR PAST 2.5 HOURS.
12z GFS and Canadian trying for another one late next weekend…
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021020112&fh=156
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021020112&fh=168
12z Para as well…
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021020112&fh=168
oops meant to post this link:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_para&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2021020112&fh=156&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Ha! Wouldn’t that be something if we remained on the cold side of the storm with that low position.
I’ll be reporting from home as the doctor pulled me out for the week & he put a brace on me . The temperature has me really suspect here . I guess we will see how much the south shore gets
So you got your additional week out this week instead of last week. Maybe that’s a good thing…
Thanks, as always, TK!
I really think the rain line is going to be a game changer .
Snow moving death band moving up from the Southcoast. Condition should continue to slowly deteriorate over the next 3 hours or so.
It’s beginning to look serious here and we are no where near the good stuff. I think the wind makes it look more fierce than it is.
Not a flake yet in Andover…
10:30 update from the NWS
Some adjustments to temperatures this morning…cooler air
holding on in Boston, a bit warmer on the Cape. Forecast is on
track, with light to moderate snow ongoing on the islands and
south coast of RI/MA. Snow reports so far are in the 1 to 2
inch range in CT and should start to come in for areas further
east soon. Radar shows heavier snow bands currently over Long
Island and the NYC metro area with sfc obs indicating heavy snow
and <1/4 mile vsbys (already seeing reports of 2"/hr snow
there). Hi-res guidance has the heavy snow timing coming in
right around when previously expected, perhaps an hour slower.
Heaviest snow moves onshore noon-1PM, expanding north into the
Boston metro area by around 3 PM. Forecast amounts remain
unchanged.
Thanks Hadi. Good to know.
Son said he is seeing first flakes around Science Park Boston.
Since dead NOON.
Yes.
Quick break from weather. Old salty, my granddaughter just txtd me that heartland seasons 1-13 are now on Netflix. 14 is still airing in Canada so not on Netflix yet. I have yet to see 12 and 13. Not sure if you found them elsewhere and have already seen them
No, I didn’t want to pay for them.
I knew they were starting Feb. 1, so they are on my list.
So happy she is enjoying the show.
thank you
Enjoying is putting it mildly. She has heartland tee shirts ans a heartland daily journal and everything heartland. It is fun to watch.
Awesome! So happy.
Just starting to stick in providence also.
We’re at 35 with dp 30. Waiting for that to come down a bit.
Would like to see 32, but will accept 33. But I have no say!
Home safety from school.
In the school parking lot, it was 36 with big flakes and the snow was melting on contact.
In the back roads of Taunton, it was 33 on the car thermometer and the snow was just starting to stick on the pavement.
Winds picking up and snow intensity, as well.
Excellent! Just in time!
Just have to get Mrs. Fantastic home from Foxborough and we’ll be good!
16Z HRRR Kuchera Snow
https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2021020116/018/snku_acc.us_ne.png
10:1
https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2021020116/018/sn10_acc.us_ne.png
Boston ave ratio: 5.6 to 1. Can you say CEMENT?
We have our own awesome band moving up from the South Shore.
https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?num=40&type=N0R&mapx=400&mapy=240&brand=wui&delay=15&frame=0&scale=1&transx=0&transy=0&severe=0&smooth=0¢erx=400¢ery=240&station=BOX&rainsnow=0&lightning=1&noclutter=0&showlabels=1&showstorms=0&rand=26870638
Logan has popped up to 36 Degrees. Wind ENE 26 mph.
12Z Euro showing a MIXFEST at 7PM!
https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021020112/012/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne.png
I am in it now. The heavy bands from the shoreline moving up my way.
Enjoy!
Rain here with a few wet fllakes. Not in heavy intensity precip yet.
I’m really thinking Boston / points south come in on the lower & I could be wrong but I think the the changeover is going to be faster
Just a hunch
I think we need to worry about precip shutting off (dry slot) as the limiting factor before any changeover
Tom what do you make of the temps high 30s all night according to weather bug . No 4-8 happening with those temps , no way !
I think, out in your area, a few miles inland, that when that heavy band comes in, you may drop to 33F or 34F and then level out.
How long that heavy precip continues over our area will determine how much wet snow you get.
Then, as we dry slot later in the night, temps could climb to 35F-37F before leveling off again and slowly falling into the lower 30s again as the wind begins to back to NE and N.
I’m not buying it Tom at all . I’m even wondering if the plows even make it out . That cold air certainly left in a hurry .
True, the ocean can scour out the cold air pretty quickly.
I do think the air above is cold enough that when that band that is probably an hour away, moves north, that it will still snow where you are, where it might rain here at the ocean´s edge.
Could you get 2 inches of cement snow, sure that´s possible. I think 5, maybe 6 is still in the cards for you in a short 3 hr period.
Quick look at radar & 12z suite results in no adjustments to above discussion/forecast.
Snow just picked up in intensity here in Sharon after a nice gentle non accumulating snow since noon. Temp down to 32 after a high of 34, now holding steady, dp at 27. Snow starting to stick. Was hoping I had another hour or two to work without the kids but looks like pickup time
12z euro showing that mix fest for eastern area but I’m liking that pink spot over my area. 🙂
1 p.m. in the northern most community of Mass. Still awaiting our first flakes.
Heaviest band is a tad bit more narrow than recently progged I’m noticing. Not sure what that means yet, if anything.
Weather bug has pembroke now at 36 & remains that way most of the night until it jumps up to 37.
First flakes. Literally, two big fat snowflakes, then it stopped.
I am imagining this invisible shield of dry air vaporizing the snow and letting only a few escapees get down to ground. Bands of darker clouds both to the southeast, and swirling in from the north.
TK, thanks for your forecast and for this blog. Storm Central!!
I don’t see any lightning out of the intense band in western NJ has anyone seen any reports of thunder snow out of these intense bands?
Not yet. Can’t rule it out completely though.
Snowing now in North Reading. Parking lots and grassy surfaces are getting coated quickly.
Welcome ….always great fun to see new folks join in the fun
Not sure where the snow is going but it sure isn’t accumulating very fast. Definitely more intense now. Still what looks to be fine flakes.
Very fine flakes here too. Wind whipping them around.
Still mostly light snow here but the heavier band appears to be knocking on our doorstep. Holding steady at 27F.
We just popped up a degree to 26. Seems to now be ramping up. Daughter and SIL just came in from a curbside pickup at our farm and said back roads are pretty covered wind getting greasy as my dad would say.
On the north shore and I have not seen a thing besides wind., Not sure I will.
Sutton just called a full remote for tomorrow..,..unless there are power outages. I really wish they would call a snow day. Everyone needs a break and a few says are nothing.
I’m betting I am not the only one in Sutton now wishing for a power outage now 🙂 🙂
Quick peak at the 12z EURO it shows a Super Bowl Sunday storm.
Hope that verifies Jimmy. I’m sure not getting a snowstorm here yet. Still waiting in fact for a dusting on the ground.
These may be naive questions, but is there sort of a drop dead time when we know how this will play out or is it hour by hour all the way? Also is too early to know where the heaviest band will track. Thanks.
WOW indeed, 12z Euro goes BEZERK on Day 6 with a Superbowl Sunday Blizzard!!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2021020112&fh=156&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
All models showing a threat in this time period….
Extreme Hype Watch has been issued!
It is way out there in the future but that would be something if two storms in a week delivered widespread double digit snowfall amounts. This brings back memories of 2011 here in CT with that six week snow blitz.
Yep, long way to go but we are talking a 6 day threat here and the pattern looks ripe for something early next week with that big trough diving down in the east. All models look intriguing but things will need to come together just right.
I am in the heavy band right now and it is moving from south to north in CT. 1/4 mile visibility for about an hour and wind gusts close to 35 mph hour so it will be interesting if where I am we reach blizzard criteria.
Enjoy!! Still barely doing anything here. I am getting impatient…
Wow! You too, Mark?
Just started to increase in intensity a bit. Hopefully soon.
Mark I am hoping you could get in on the action. A lot of reporting stations in CT showing 1/4 visibility.
12z Euro spits out 1″+ QPF region wide for the ongoing storm.
10:1 Snowmap:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2021020112&fh=84&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc&m=ecmwf_full
Total snow when factoring in the potential system next weekend is 15-30″ region wide….
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2021020112&fh=204&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc&m=ecmwf_full
This is a NYC special, along with some other places to our west and southwest, but not a Boston bonanza. In fact, I’ll go further than that. I think it’s mostly a Boston flop. The temperature is 34F, wet surface even after some snow showers. I do think it’ll snow for a while but not all that intensely and then mix/ rain, and the snow will be less than 6 inches, probably around 4 near the coast in the city (a bit more in places like JP). There will be bigger amounts well inland to our southwest, west, and northwest. However, the coast just didn’t retain enough cold air. The heavier bands appear to be setting up further from the coast as well. And, I think the south coast won’t have much measurable snow at all.
Actually bands look very good and orientation wise look like that the cost will do well. Temp will drop to around 31-31. We shall see
Reading Massachusetts…
Temp 23 with north wind to 29 with east wind over the last hour.
Pretty evident to see where the coastal front has set up shop…
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2021_02/Feb1_1pmTemps.jpg.3bd83d7d79a83227f3be24bf6f859b21.jpg
13.3 inches so far for NYC. They had 10.5 from the December storm so just a few more inches they will have above normal snowfall for the season. The winter forecast for NYC when it comes to snowfall is going to be a bust.
Yep, lots of winter forecasts this year calling for dominant La Nina and SE Ridge not materializing so far, Let’s hope we can keep it rolling through February. So far the first 10 days of the month are looking POTENTIALLY pretty good!
We haven’t even started and folks already saying it’s a bust. ♂️
Ryan Hanrahan
@ryanhanrahan
22m
Wow – 10.2″ of snow as of 1 p.m. from the official observer in Bridgeport!
Finally picking up in intensity in a bit and looking more like a snowstorm here in Coventry CT. Moderate snow and wind. Dropped a degree to 26F.
Picking up here in JP as well.
When you get double digit snowfall totals for the CT shoreline that is impressive.
11″ Hamden CT
The 10-16 inches Ryan Hanrahan is calling for looks like it will happen for a lot of CT. I would not be surprised if some areas get 18 inches.
Mesoscale Discussion from SPC
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0052.html
YIKES! Pretty impressive. Let’s see if it materializes.
1:30 NWS update. Again not a busy before the storm even starts. How many live at Logan?
Radar shows the initial band of heavy snow is moving onto the
south coast of RI and MA early this afternoon as expected. This
is resulting in obs showing heavy snow and <1/4 mile visibility
at locations like Westerly and Newport. Temperatures along the
south coast are in the 32-35 degree range, but with dewpoints 27
to 32, there is room for dynamic cooling beneath this heavier
snow, and accumulation should begin in earnest. Winds are coming
up on schedule as well, gusting to 46 kts on Nantucket, 25 to 35
kts on the outer Cape, and 25 to 30 kts on the north shore.
Not sure what is going on here but the radar looks great overhead, like it should be ripping snow, but it’s coming down moderate at best. I would definitely not classify this as heavy snow. It’s blowing around more than anything. I have about 3″ so far. Most of that fell overnight! Beginning to wonder if the screw zone here in NC CT shown on many of the models is going to come to fruition.
Not to sound like Dave, but I am NOT impressed so far!
🙂 🙂
Mark, I was just typing that same thought. I look outside and its not snowing particularly heavy but according to the radar it should be heavier. If this is the case, we’re running out of time get get cranking. We’re counting on high rates to get our accumulations before this thing dry slots and shuts down tonight
Not sure what is going on here, but dry air must be eating away at this in the mid levels. It’s definitely not a ratio thing as temp is only 27. Its a powdery snow.
34 here and snowing at a good intensity light snow. Not Moderate at this point, but beginning to accumulate. Nearing 1 inch on snow covered surfaces, about 1/2 inch on the walk, Nothing in the salt treated street.
Old salty wankum has the heavy precipitation about 4pm for the city .
Sounds about right.
It had better get here!!!!
The timing of the arrival of the heavy snow keeps getting pushed up now saying 4 instead of 3 & rain line in the city around 10 . Could maybe underperform ?? Thoughts .
I don’t want to be a kill joy here, but I am wondering if that nice band does what it has on so many other storms and that is go poof before it gets to the Boston Area. I have been watching it and so far so good. If we don’t get that, you can throw the snowfall projections out the window.
Is there such a thing as “snowing itself out?”
That’s what I am seeing, too.
Also, thermometer is stuck at 34F. I’m sure it can go down with dynamic cooling as Hadi suggested. But, until this point there’s little on the ground, save maybe a half inch. Pavements and streets are mostly wet, not snow-covered.
Btw, Hadi and others I don’t think this storm is a bust by any means. In fact quite the opposite. I just believe that Boston will not be where the heavy action is, at least not coastal Boston.
If bands miss it isn’t bc the temps are too warm. 🙂
Ground is wet here in hingham. That’s all to report. It’s going how I was hoping it would go. Hope it continues.
Definitely need a met to chime here on what the hell is going on. Just had what looked like a death band rotate over me and its nothing more than a glorified flizzard out there.
Meanwhile areas just south of Hartford are reporting 6″ already.
Typically snow shadowing shows up well on radar so its not that. Must be dry air still trying to eat away at this.
Definitely need to lower my expectations for this storm unless things change in a hurry here….
Temperature up to 31 in Reading.
Time to declare this event a BUST for Boston.
How can it be a bust if it was scheduled to start around 2-3 PM? Very well could bust, but we haven’t even had the storm yet? Not trying to be a jerk, but let’s wait a few hours. So if Logan gets 3 inches but JP/WR get a foot then it’s a bust?
You do realize that I forecast most of the snow to fall there between late afternoon and late evening, correct?
I expect that Logan airport will pick up around 4-in and the western part of the city up to twice that amount but most of it is going to fall over a 4-hour to 6-hour period that has not arrived yet.
If those areas come in more than one inch below my expectation then I will declare it a bust for Boston but that is not going to happen until I no longer expect any accumulating snow to fall there.
+1
A few flakes is all I have seen on the north shore and it’s pushing towards 3 PM.
NWS Upton snow totals:
https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202102011907-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX
NWS Norton snow totals:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=3&glossary=1&highlight=off
If my eye are deceiving me, it looks like Band # 1 is Shrinking.
Why am I not surprised???
This is the thing with synoptic banding. Keep an eye on that band to the northwest of Boston that runs from Springfield up to near leominster. These are going to be your jackpot zones if the current trend continues. But it’s also very early in the game yet as I noted above.
I have arrived back in Woburn as of 2:45 p.m. and the temperature here is 32. The cold air is not holding here at least for now. The early lead in the model battle goes to the GFS.
SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!
Skies starting to brighten here in Amesbury. We’ve seen nothing.
34, dp 31
Stratford CT:
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2021_02/3FB6E286-8FD8-4CA8-9E0B-9A75209301BE.JPG.7e0b8d8c269ade3788099cdb4e96f1ea.JPG
Not even close to the scene here. It’s basically just flurrying.
What am I missing. I thought all along that this was the rough start time. I thought the rain snow line at or even in from the coast was going to be a bit of an unknown. I thought heaviest wasn’t supposed to be for another few hours.
Was I reading I correctly?
Even if I have been doing just that, I’m sure enjoying the beauty out there
Further north yes, but down here we should have been pounding snow for a few hours by now. A healthy band just went through on the radar and did not deliver here at all. Yet I am seeing reports and pictures 10-20 miles from me here in CT of it ripping snow.
Must be a subsidence zone over Tolland County or something but you typically see that on radar. I don’t get it but dry air seems to be winning the battle here.
So it was supposed to start with a vengeance?
As far as I’m concerned things are pretty much right on track with my expectations.
But I can only speak for my own expectations. 🙂
You sure echo mine.
Under a nice band in Sterling at the moment. Visibilities down considerably.
Moderate rain here with a few wet snow flakes mixed in from time to time.
Quite breezy.
Bummer!!!
On this one, I am thrilled.
If it was a much colder storm, I´d be hoping for a lot of snow or if it had snow but less wind, I´d be hoping for a lot of snow.
But wet snow and wind, no thanks. I´ve done the 3 to 4 day power outage before. Fun at first, by day 2 or 3, it stinks. Seeing your breath in your house is absolutely depressing.
I am in between heavy snow bands. Still snowing at a good clip. Another one comin onto the CT shoreline and will see if it rotates up my way.
NAM still insisting on a bunch of snow, not caving at all.
The NAM looks like it is going to nail the snowfall for my part of CT.
Ryan Hanrahan
@ryanhanrahan
2m
Looks like we have reached blizzard criteria in Waterbury and Bridgeport with 3 consecutive hours of heavy snow (visibility1/4 mile or less) and frequent wind gusts 35 mph or more.
Ryan just upped the entire state to 10-18″ . Things will need to turn around in a hurry here if we are going to get anything close to the low end of that range.
Measurement as of 3:00 p.m. at Woburn is 0.2 inch snow. We have light snow falling now and the temperature is sitting right at 32 here, approximately 10 degrees warmer than what the NAM forecast for me at this time. Wind is from the East but light.
Just about 2 inches here and spectacular. Kids headed out to sled.
I wish I could join them. 🙂
Wind is east here, too, in Back Bay. I’d say we have a grand total thus far of 0.4 inch. Nothing is sticking on the roadways. It’s 33.4F and snowing quite lightly.
I’m sticking to my guns on this one, as I’ve been in the 4-5 inch prediction zone for several days, at least for the immediate coastal area in Boston. And I’d say pretty much nada in terms of snow from Pembroke to Nantucket.
It’s fairly unusual for NYC to outperform Boston, but it does happen from time to time. 2010 was one of those years, and there have been others. I happen to love seeing the snow fall in Manhattan. Beautiful sight.
Flurries continue to dance about in the wind here in Coventry CT 28F. Snowing at an average rate of a pathetic 0.2″/per hour for the last 15 hours.
TK, please advise what the heck is going on here as I am getting more frustrated and hostile with each passing minute 🙂
So far I feel that everything is going according to my expectation. I’m comfortable with my ranges posted above at the moment.
I do not think the upper limit of forecast ranges will be realized.
I absolutely agree . The models have been all over the place from the start .
That’s where meteorology comes into play. 😉
Big flakes mixing in. It’s trying to get heavier, but not having much success.
Still 34, dp 31
Snow has picked up in pembroke but I am not planning on high Totals . And it shuts off lol
3 PM, Logan’s wind was at 050 degrees. I’d like to see that back a little more to so 40 or even 30 degrees.
Morris County NJ:
https://twitter.com/_NEweather/status/1356309763135569923?s=20
2″ here. Heavy snow
24F
22DP
NE wind
Ryan finally caught on to the subsidence zone parked over us here in NE CT.
Unimpressive is an understatement!
Ryan Hanrahan
@ryanhanrahan
16m
A persistent area of lighter snow is resulting in unimpressive snow totals in northeastern Connecticut. In fact, got a report of only 2″ from Russ in Woodstock! Expect a zone of lighter amounts in parts of Tolland & Windham Counties. #nbcct
https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1356335320195870723?s=20
Eric Fisher tweet from 20 minutes ago. Adjusted snowfall contours near the coast. Good idea.
NAM was too cold near the shoreline, even some distance inland. That’s already being proven at least for the early part of the storm. My temp was 20 F when I left for reading at 32F when I returned home just 7 hours later.
Cornboy my friend I just saw your message from this morning! It went to moderation so I had to find and approve it.
Woburn I still have in the 6-12 inch band and I’m comfortable with that. I’ll venture a guess of 9 to 11 for the city of Woooooobin when it’s all done. Synoptic banding doesn’t hold and it’s under that. I don’t think we’ll make it to 12.
Thanks. Maybe I am sadistic, but I want a good storm. Since I spent 8 hours fixing my snowblower.
Hope all is well!
You’ll get to use it. 🙂 All is well here! Hope the same is true there!
Decent clip here at this point.
Glad. Send it here, please. It’s barely snowing at this point where I am. Temperature is holding steady at 33.2F.
Few miles makes a world of difference.
TK, don’t subsidence zones usually show up pretty well on radar? The radar does not look that bad over NE CT right now but I can tell you that it is barely doing anything here. I have literally had only about a half inch accumulation all afternoon.
Usually, but sometimes if the drying is taking place underneath where the radar beam is, it’s deceiving.
I’m sorry, Mark.
Not much here as well (Back Bay, Boston), thus far.
Joshua so I suspect it’s the where I work long wood medical area . No plows needed right .
It is coming down pretty hard here in JP. Beginning to look like a storm. Heavy band is now expanding and looking good.
temp 34, dp 32. Not sure the temp will drop any. We shall see.
Gonna have to make hay at 34. It is sticking to Everything. Really looking Wintry out there.
Yep looks beautiful and really picking up.
Enjoy JpDave and Hadi !
Sorry you are getting rain, but as you said, you are happy about that. I see Marshfield airport is at 37 degrees.
4 PM NWS OBS has it at 39 degrees!
Yup, considering a heat advisory for Marshfield.
🙂 🙂
Not often we get a big snow storm at 34 degrees, but I have seen it before. Here’s a hoping.
TK what do you have for me in JP? 7-9 inches. Something like that?
Somewhere in there… 7ish, maybe 8.
Thanks
Logan’s wind has backed around to 040 degrees, which is 5 degrees North of due NE. Over the afternoon, it has backed 20 degrees. I see this as nothing but a GOOD sign for snow. I’d like to see it back a little bit more.
I think it’s done here in pembroke it’s actually getting brighter . At least I will not need my driveway cleared as there is absolutely no way it will accumulate here , big disappointment but when I went out this morning with no jacket you could sense it was going to play out this way .
Is it snowing? Mix? or rain there now?
Some even heavier snow knocking at the door. We shall see!
33.3 here in South Weymouth, rain/sleet mix no accumulation.
You are getting ice pellets? Please say NO
Model guidance suggest no warm layers above at this time.
Something funky going on down there.
All rain that’s a wrap
Wow! That sucks. What did you get an inch or perhaps 2 or not even that?
Not even close . The writing was on the wall . I bet Boston doesn’t get a lot as well .
Must be pouring buckets down there!
Not pouring it’s moderate.
Ok, thanks
Logan just dropped to 32. Here in JP dropped to 33.
The effects of that wind backing is taking place.
I think we stay snow for a good long time, at least until it
warms aloft, and then perhaps some sleet instead of rain.
Or it is simply the heavier snow doing its dynamic cooling or a combination of both. Either way, I’ll take it.
24 in Fitchburg, heavy snow and a recent clap of thunder.
Retrac should be doing pretty well.
Much lighter intensity now in Sterling and also seeing bigger flakes.
Temperature dropped to 32.4F in Back Bay. Sudden drop in the last few minutes.
Bit larger flakes here. Temp up to 28. 3.75. Kids are having a blast sledding. Nana is enjoying watching from the slider. Snowing a bit in the house too.
I see hot buttered rum in my future
🙂 Enjoy
18Z GFS still says RAIN in Boston before 10PM AND it portrays MUCH lighter precipitation than ALL other models. Still at this late hour.
Has less than 1 inch for Boston.
I hope that when it rains the precip will be winding down at the same time.
That’s the plan. Let’s see if the storm sticks to it or not. 🙂
My street is fully covered and this is even after a crap load of salt was dumped shortly after NOON.
Whatever they use for pre-treatment here in Woburn smells like soup stock and works AWESOME because I’ve had moderate snow for an hour now and the roads are just wet.
Dinner in the road??
Same here as well. This storm is looking MUCH better! 🙂
Looks like channel 5 took an inch of the top as high mark now 15. 2 inches in Natick and temp has climbed to 30.
If they showed you a map with tenths of inches it’s probably just a model run (my guess is NAM 18z).
I think he mean high mark was reduced to 15 inches and he has 2 inches on the ground. 🙂
mix of rain and snow here in East Bridgewater. temp is 34. not really accumulating any more. only got about 1.5″
All snow in Taunton (west side) at 32.7.
Moderate snow for the last hour.
Mets on tv need to get there act together .
Can you elaborate? I haven’t seen any problems with the ones I’ve seen so far.
The Mets on tv have been doing a great job.
I think they need to come down some for the city . Many places will verify & many will not but I’m not the professional. All in all not an easy job & I definitely tip my cap to all of them .
A friend of mine in the PVD area is reporting sleet mixed with snow. This indicates some warming aloft now.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Well I knew it was coming, but a little early no?
According to the accumulations I’ve seen down there, it seems about on schedule.
Radar trend: NW synoptic band seems to be intensifying while the SE band is very slightly weakening. Significant subsidence area continues in NE CT.
It’s really coming down here. Cannot call it Heavy yet, but certainly Moderate snow. How many times when mets call for heavy snow or moderate to heavy snow do we really see heavy snow??? We really don’t see heavy snow all that often. To be sure we have, but so far today, at least at my location, NO HEAVY SNOW!
I equate true heavy snow to meeting severe thunderstorm criteria in summer. We get watches and warnings but very rarely do we reach severe
Hot buttered rum….cheers
https://imgur.com/a/4ptIjLt
Enjoy! I love a scene like that. 🙂
Thanks. I sure am enjoying
4.75. An inch in the past 45 minutes
34.4 all rain in South Weymouth
This is hands down the WORST subsidence area I have ever been in. How when the bands are rotating in from SE to NW does it stay parked in the same area the ENTIRE day! I literally have not accumulated more than inch the entire afternoon while the rest of the State is getting CRUSHED. Approaching 18″ now in several locations along the shoreline and in western CT.
3.5″ total so far, 2″ of that occurred overnight and 1.5″ during the dat today. Still flurrying and up to 29F
dat = day
I think I am going to turn the bluetooth on and play some “Break Stuff” by Limp Bizkit.
I had that bulls**t last time. Totally sucks
On Radar it looks like a damn black hole sucking in the universe.
what radar are you looking at? I don’t see it on the “My Radar” app I am using. Makes it look like it should be snowing pretty good.
The one OS recomended
No black hole for me this time thank god.
5”
Nice.
What’s worse is the radar is showing it is ripping snow overhead again!
Well at least I should be able to clear the driveway in about 10 min with the leaf blower .
I am up to 9 inches and with the rate of the snow falling I should have no problem reaching a foot of snow.
You may end up with more than that at this rate. Glad that the forecast is verifying there!
Rain is awfully close. We are holding onto snow and even though it is 33, it looks like it wants to RAIN!
So far four fluffy ones in Lunenburg.
Based on what I can tell the warming aloft is advancing fairly steadily. NBC’s in-house model (which isn’t too bad, actually) has sleet/rain moving into Metro Boston in a couple hours and progressing quite a distance to the NW with time as the precip tapers off. Been snowing pretty good here for nearly 2 hours now but I can’t say that the rate here is insane. I’ll be right back with an official measurement…
I mentioned yesterday big busy potential 95 corridor. Looks like that could come to fruition.
About 3 inches so far in the kingdom of Chelmsford, coming down moderate, no wind to speak of. Thus ends my report.
Hi Fox. Nice to see you.
Forgot to post mark rosenthal did a 3pm forecast update https://youtu.be/TBlUBmH9LGw
I like Mark R. 🙂 And he is a follower of this blog. Hey Mr. Rosenthal!
He has been a favorite for a very long time.
I watch all of his non cape cod daily forecasts.
How can I follow him
You have to have an account on youtube then all you do is click subscribe then activate the notification bell.
Ok thanks . I’ll look into it . Ace posted yesterday & I enjoyed the presentation I always liked him .
Still pretty much rain here in hingham.
Same in pembroke with a touch of sleet
1.7 inch snow so far in Woburn. Wind has picked up a bit. Radar indicates it should be snowing heavier than it is – but .. it’s not. Moderate snow.
Aint that the truth!
I can at least say that I think the snow intensity here is more on the moderate side now. But definitely not heavy,
Seeing the temp will go up and a lot of rain?!?
For me in NE CT, the issue has been snow intensity not rain/snow line. But yes, in Metro Boston, the issue the next few hours is going to be advancement of that R/S line NW.
NWS discussion on the Superbowl Sunday storm threat:
Then Sunday high amplitude ridge over the Eastern Pacific into Western Canada, forces a piece of the polar vortex to descend into the Great Lakes and OH Valley. Operational EC has a very intense coastal low (sub 970 mb) becoming an inside runner Sunday. The EC ensembles show large spread here with the mean tracking closer to the benchmark. GFS and CMC
ensembles not as bullish but all agree on arctic short wave/front entering the Great Lakes/OH Valley. Thus lots of uncertainty but potential is there given evolving high amplitude pattern.
At day 6, I’ll leave all options on the table.
5,75. An inch in the last 30.
That’s heavy snow 😀
Yep. SIL went out to shovel for the tenth time and confirmed my measurement
Mostly wet on streets and pavement. It’s never been a heavy snow in the city, not in Back Bay at least. I don’t think we’ll even get to 4 inches. And even that will melt and be compacted so in the morning it’ll look like much less. On to the next storm.
Mark Rosenthal is a legend.
He is. Just seeing his name brings a smile. Many memories of tuning in to watch him with Mac
Tk could you please explain to me why just now Harvey puts out still snow map for my area . I am scrambling trying to figure this out .
He actually has a snow map for the entire area – as they have to, because the storm is in progress. My advice is to email Harvey. He can definitely answer a question about what he does better than I can. I am controlling my forecast – not anyone else’s. I’m sure Harvey will be glad to explain his reasoning. 🙂 I can guess though: Half of your town is snowing and the other half is raining as of 5:45PM. We did say that there would be a very sharp gradient near the coast and a very high potential that things don’t quite work out the way they were shown on maps. This is why during-storm adjustments are often necessary.
I actually emailed mike both last night & this afternoon with no response . I’ve also messaged Harvey a few times with no response which I found odd . I do not know about half the town snowing as that’s not what I’m hearing from friends & neighbors. Appreciate your response . But the point is at 6:00 to be still having a good slug of snow down this way I find that to be misleading . It’s just my opinion & you know I like Harvey it’s not saying anything bad .
In all fairness this is a tough one to pinpoint down & I really should see how it ends .
Exactly. Do you have Twitter. If not, maybe sign up. It is pretty simple once you figure it out. Pete often resounds to me on Twitter. Eric has a couple of times
Vicki I sent mike a response last night I believe it was Twitter & today a private message not on Twitter .
Cool. My guess is they may be very busy. Good luck
Well said. We have had rain here several times with snow or ice in the center. I’ve mentioned it often.
I just saw a plow go down Beacon Street, but it was tearing up the road more than plowing. That was unnecessary.
I said the exact same here the other night. When I got up in the morning I was glad they did.
Looking at the radar, it appears we’re in a prolonged heavy band. The temperature has stayed consistently 33 degrees since 12:30!
Eric commented to a question about a heavy band sound of here on Twitter earlier. He said that was pretty much the storm. I wonder if this is the band since we have really picked up.
We are holding at 28 in south Sutton. I’d be surprised if toward Sutton center is not a couple of degrees colder
Piling up in Westwood now. A few to several inches has fallen in moderate snow.
Uxbridge had a full remote today but cancelled for tomorrow. Come on Sutton!!!!!!
That said, our superintendent has done a phenomenal job weeding the way through covid, so I really only have great things to say. And I need to add every single member of education staff and the school committee.
WRSD superintendent canceled for tomorrow and said for the kids to take advantage of the New England winter if they can. I thought that was really cool.
Rain mixed with snowflakes/snowflakes mixed with rain here at home (Dorchester).
Que sera, sera… 🙁
Game over??
Hey mark has your intensity picked up at all. It sucks that you’ve been dry slotted most of the storm. I’ve been on the extreme edge of the dry slot to my south and have had mostly mod to occasionally heavy snow, however 5 miles south of here is what your experiencing. Although I went through a couple of short lived dry slots that seemed to fill in over my head. What a bummer.
Midstorm snowfall maps forecast update: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EtLWLZqXMAAgazM?format=jpg&name=large
It’s a rarity for mets to update mid storm but here we are.
Here in Swampscott, I am predicting a total snowfall accumulation of 0-0.”
Most real map is the NWS map.
We’re barely hanging onto snow in JP. Expect rain at any moment. Still at 33 here. Perhaps 2-3 inches of paste has accumulated at a ratio or 3 or 4 to 1 I would guess. I mean this stuff is SLOP!!
I am NOT Impressed in the slightest little bit over this gigantic let down of a useless storm.
Looking at radar, we’re still a long way away from the end
Gobble gobble gobble says the ocean air to the blue hues on the radar by the coast lol
Not here, at least not yet. 🙂
7.5″ here
Still 34 in Weymouth Rain and just now some lightning and thunder.
SC – yes, finally got into the good stuff here, of course right when I went out to shovel! Heavy snow and blizzard conditions at times. I’d say we are at 6” now but hard to measure with the wind. Driveway was literally down to 2” in spots and up to 8” in others
Just dumping now, unfortunately not much time left on the radar now for us here.
Going out for shoveling round #1 of 2. Will report a measurement (so far) when I’m done with that round.
8” but suspect wind it taking some. My area to measure is fairly well protected. But I opened the slider to go out to measure and the wind blew an inch into the house.
Snowing pretty good here. Still wet but seems less so.
How much on the ground do you think? I am thinking a solid 2, perhaps 3 inches.
I am thinking about 3 about 45 minutes ago.
7 PM NWS obs show that it is still snowing in Newport and Providence, RI. A good sign.
It’s been wild here for a couple of hours. 4.5″ of snow. Temp dropped a smidge to 32.5.
7Pm Obs for Logan, light rain and snow and 33 degrees.
My Dad measured an average of 11 inches about an hour ago at Billerica Ma. He said once he hit 128 this evening you couldn’t see 3 feet in front of you. Said worst conditions he has seen in 2 years.
JpDave probably channeling Bill Belichick “We’re on to next Sunday.”
Here’s the 7 Day Forecasts for the week and a fun additional infographic: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EtLpje8WMAE1r-r?format=jpg&name=large
Does Sunday bring a storm? Does it mean Brady wins another championship? Stay tuned and find out!
Thank you Doc. I guess today’s storm depends where one resides. 🙂
It’s not just the snow that is coming down at a good clip where I am but the wind is the strongest its been all day.
7.5-8 in my hills of Woburn and snowing heaviest it has all day.
Hi cowboy. Love the new “faces”. Welcome.
Lol. It’s Cornboy. :). TK and I go way back. Don’t talk too much now, but waaaaaay back. Thanks for the welcome. Seems like a pretty good groups here.
Just about 7 inches in North Reading…I took the kids out at 530 and there was 3 inches and now 7…snowing at a pretty good clip, temp 32
Great to hear mark. Looks like some more heavier bands blossoming to our south. We could be in this for a little while longer and maybe play catch up. I understand that no two storms are alike, but it’s frustrating to be dry slotted when there are walls of precip all around you and they just can’t penetrate the dry zone wherever that may set up on any given storm. You just pay it isn’t over you if you are a lover of snow. As for me here I’m at 6 1/2” and snowing heavily now with temp of 28 degrees and very gusty 25 to 30 mph
Logan 8PM obs light snow, 32.
Logan has popped up to 34. The Beginning of the end?
Huh, wtf????
Raining in Marshfield and several miles to the South it is SNOWING in Plymouth according to NWS obs
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA
(KPYM) 41.90861N 70.72806W
2 Day History
Last Updated: Feb 1 2021, 7:52 pm EST
Mon, 01 Feb 2021 19:52:00 -0500
Weather: Light Snow Fog/Mist and Breezy
Temperature: 35.0 °F (1.7 °C)
Dewpoint: 34.0 °F (1.1 °C)
Relative Humidity: 96 %
Wind: from the Northeast at 20.7 gusting to 38.0 MPH (18 gusting to 33 KT)
Wind Chill: 24 F (-4 C)
Visibility: 4.00 miles
MSL Pressure: 1007.9 mb
We actually have some sleet and a few wet snow flakes mixed in with some very heavy rain.
It’s snowing here in pembroke I expect maybe some to stick if it continues but I am not expecting much at all . I will monitor the changes .
You mean the rain changed back to snow???
It’s big flakes now yes roads still wet
I’m sitting at 36
About 10 in Andover, coming down hard. Just did a 2nd clean up, between periods, about 6 or 7 in with my Toro battery powered snow thrower, did an outstanding job. Great snow for it, love it.
Absolutely dumping in Sterling for a while now!
Just measured 9.5 on holden.
There’s plume headed
Just measured 9.75 here. We are on the same train I think
Yes we are. I wish JPD was sharing in the fun.
I’m Good. At least it’s still snowing. 🙂
🙂
🙂
For those of us at the coast, too bad this high wasnt sitting north of us.
Barrow, AK´s current pressure is 1050.1 mb or 31.00 inches !!!!!!
oh and its -25F, with a dp of -32F and an east wind at 9 mph for a wind chill of -46F.
DB, Fox, cowboy and Ceterias. And I sincerely apologize if I missed new folks. Soooo many comments
Welcome.
Ceterias….do you know a Rickley or Marotoli family in N reading. Odd are no but thought I’d ask
Gotta be wetter snow. It is sticking to window
What a difference 3 miles makes….
How you making out Hadi ??
Snowing at a good clip. Flipped to all snow. Around 4-5 inches but a bunch got soaked so looks like 3 inches.
Cool .
5.5 and still snowing in Woburn.
The snow is very sticky but it is not very heavy (water laden). It’s rather light. Absolute winter wonderland here.
I always end up with 2-3 inches more that most in Woburn. I mean I’m higher but not talking mountains. I’ll get Good measurement when I got out at 10 for first removal pass.
Sorry. I saw cornboy and thought cowboy. Must be my love for horses 🙁
It’s all good. Good to meet you 🙂
🙂
Welcome cornboy72
I like this video
https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan
That is so cool. Thanks
Sorry Meant to post this
https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1356416205410734080
It worked on last one but I had to scroll down. Just priceless
I had meetings from 5:30 to 9 p.m. just brought the dog out and we are absolutely getting pounded right in Amesbury. Slow start, but lots of fury now.
Just a very light coating of slush here in Hingham near the ocean. Outside you can see both flakes and rain. Story of the storm for us.
🙁
:'(
Awwww didn’t work
Same in pembroke . Big disappointment!!!
Wind is gusting into low 30s
11.25 after a few measures.
Moderate snow again here after a lull.
Snowing very hard in jp. We’re at eastern edge of big band just westvof the city. Paste falling from the sky.
6+ in Westwood in moderate snow. Evidence of dry slotting coming up from the south. May be able to top coat another couple of inches to bring snow total to 8+ – lower end of the range. Not bad but was more impressed with the recent wind gusts than I ever was with snow intensity. A few miles and a couple of degrees was the difference here. All in all well forecasted for most.
I see that dry slot….heading this way also. A bit late to the party but mentioned last night. So far for here, it has gone exactly as I thought I’d heard. A foot is awesome. Any more tonight is icing on the cake
Coming down very hard now. Impressive.
Nice little storm in Natick. Snow days for all of us (representing 3 different towns in the 128 belt) tomorrow , so no complaints!
Awesome. Still not Sutton but then with the supers handling of covid and the amazing job our school staff has done, I’m not complaining. Although, I wish the staff had the day. My grands will have it as long as they get assigned work done
One foot even.
Nice, and you probably have a couple inches more to come.
How are you doing. I can’t keep up with comments
just commented below!
According to Mark Rosenthal, there is a lot of arctic air that will be spilling in here over the next few weeks. He believes that February will be quite interesting. He also mentioned aka the “polar vortex”.
Do you agree with this TK?
Cant speak for TK but the pattern on the models looks pretty interesting the next few weeks…active with a decent amount of cold air around. Euro weeklies look pretty cold right through the end of February as well. We will have more chances this month for sure, starting with this weekend.
I don’t disagree with his assessment but I don’t know yet if mine would be the same.
Still snowing lightly here in Coventry CT but dry slot fast approaching. I reported 8″ of snow to the NWS. Perhaps a bit generous with all the blowing but I measured in several spots.
Temp up to 31F. Finally got into some heavy snow and occasional whiteout conditions for a few hours this evening which was fun.
Feeling better now but still frustrating to see towns a mere 15-20 miles to my southwest and northeast getting pummeled with 12-16″ of snow. A few of those short range models really nailed the dry slot that set up over us in much of NC/NE CT.
Measuring sure is a challenge. Good numbers Mark.
00z GFS just phases a bit too late for the Sunday system:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021020200&fh=150
Man, if that northern and southern stream energy come together a bit sooner, things would get wild again around here next weekend!
14″. Heavy snow. Temp from 28 to 27. Wind picking up.
I am jealous! You could easily still pull 18″ out of this.
We might make a run at it. Radar rotation from SE looks like it might be possible
Wow.
NWS snow totals thus far:
https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202102020333-KBOX-NOUS41-PNSBOX
Danbury (not listed above) the winner in CT thus far with 19″.
Highest total I have seen is 30″ in Mendham NJ.
Sutton off but then northbridge Is on my doorstep so don’t know where is Sutton
Where in Sutton …..it is a town of very stark differences
Mendon MA:
https://scontent-bos3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/145739866_10224328530977590_5508415565035276666_n.jpg?_nc_cat=109&ccb=2&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=csr_ux5aVcQAX8mVzX4&_nc_oc=AQkUPZtL2dXaoKmFqyIvYUffouaIDQ2qoKYK1UOZ1lQN-WOuhgunfoxkSrUpTqGiHnUShNqZaHxStMbaqkgZBNcy&_nc_ht=scontent-bos3-1.xx&oh=b2390b6110c87cdeebb1e1f41ef52f70&oe=604036B3
Nice On my oldests doorstep. Not at all far from here
Video from Hampton Beach. 8″ and near blizzard conditions…
https://youtu.be/vHzGQlEIAsg
00z GFS Para for next Sunday/Monday a bit disorganized but the storm is there:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_para&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2021020200&fh=150&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
My eyes are beginning to cross. Just over 13 here as I hews to sleep
https://imgur.com/a/MZParGB
Or head to sleep. Who the hews know.
Sleep well all..enjoy. Tk. Awesome job. Thank you. And thank you to every single person here.
Damn. Looks like my deck. Lol. Where I @?
Ugh. You @? Not i
She lives in Sutton, MA
Solid 10 in my section of Woburn and still coming down hard
So, I keep looking at the radar and it looks like the rain line is north west of me. Why am I still getting snow. Temp is 35F
What a boatload of snow out there and it just keeps coming and the wind has been really kicking in.
That 30” report in Mendham NJ, which I believe is the highest for the storm so far, is in my office’s CWA. We may end up seeing some higher reports trickle in especially as we add a little more on tomorrow. Needless to say, busy times down here. Much less where I am though, just over 6” for the entire event so far with maybe another 1-3 to come by this time tomorrow.
Weather Bug says snow all day tomorrow!
Scattered rain and snow showers Tuesday with no snow accumulation.
Just got in from the second round of shoveling.
Shoveled 5 in of sticky but lightweight snow in round one. Shoveled 4 inches of much wetter heavier snow in round 2. During the second round outside the snow turned to sleet. accounting for settling and taking into account my measurements I am calling this 9.5 inches on Woods Hill in Woburn. That would fall right in the range I had for my area. Not sure how everything else verified but first glance it looks pretty decent. anyway because it’s in the process of dying. Once again we got lucky. It missed the power lines and it missed the cable lines. Just had to move it a little bit off part of the sidewalk. It probably weighed about 400 lbs. Nate and I were able to slide it over just enough to get it off the sidewalk.
Outstanding job with this forecast TK! And just caught up on the day’s chat – from my layman’s eyes just based on the huge variations in accumulations from town to town even those proximate- not an easy one to peg, I assume?
Thank you as always for everything- mad met skills, blog creation/moderation & super belated ty for answering my question in the early am – no rest for the (.us) wicked, right?
Per Boston tide guage, 3.26 ft storm surge in Boston harbor turned a 10 ft tide to a 13 ft+ tide around 2 am this morning.
Alternate bus stop schedule for Brant rock this morning.
Finished with 17.2”. Let’s see if the weekend brings anymore!
Nice !
the 2 inches of snow already on the ground pre-storm is pretty much gone.
My Dad measured an average 17 inches at 1am last night at Billerica, he will let me know how much they got when he wakes up. I’m jealous. One of the largest snow totals in my area since 2 years ago if they hit 19 inches
New weather post! I picked up a tad more overnight so will report a final right after I measure it.