Tuesday February 2 2021 Forecast (7:56AM)

137 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

I’ll start by saying that looking at the snowfall accumulation map from the NWS this morning, this may be the most “variable” snowfall distribution I have seen in all my years of forecasting with some of the sharpest snowfall gradients. Looking back, the forecast was “ok”, off for some areas, on for others. Areas that I thought may get a slushy inch or two saw a few flakes and a slushy coating at most before turning to rain, while my top range was ok except for a few 17 to 20 inch amounts. Amazingly, the 20 inch amount occurred in town that borders my home town of Woburn – Wilmington MA, while here at Woods Hill, while I still have to officially measure what fell since 1:30 a.m. when I was sitting at 9.5 inches, I’m probably around 10 for the total as it looks like about 1/2 inch managed to add up after that. And then you have the gradient from about 1 inch at Logan to 13 inches just down the road and up the hill at Blue Hill Observatory in Milton. Synoptic banding, elevation, and a coastal front all played major rolls in the storm – a forecaster’s nightmare in a way, but a weather nut’s fascination. I’ll say that the latter is the bigger deal for me on this one, personally. But now it’s time to move on and look ahead. We still have some impact from this storm system today and even into Wednesday as its complex elongated low center does a little dance just offshore before pulling away. So we’ll have a spotty mainly light variety of precipitation today and some additional snow or snow showers for a while on Wednesday, not producing any significant accumulation. Then we get a break Thursday as high pressure moves in with a nice day. The next low passes northwest of our area on Friday with its frontal system bringing some unsettled weather, probably starting with some light snow/mix and ending up as rain showers. Behind this comes drier but somewhat colder air for the start of the weekend…

P.S.: Punxutawney Phil saw his shadow this morning, which means he agrees with the WHW long range forecast for the month of March. 😉

TODAY: Cloudy. Occasional showers of rain and pockets of freezing rain, sleet, & snow. No significant ice or snow accumulation but watch for slippery areas. Highs 35-42 morning, falling slightly in the afternoon. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH coastal areas except 45-55 MPH Cape Cod, especially in the morning and midday.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Additional mix/snow showers evening. Lows 25-32. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a chance of light snow or snow showers through mid afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32.Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A touch of rain/mix/snow possible in the morning. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind SE up to 10 MPH morning, SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

Watching for a possible storm system to impact the region with snow/mix/rain on February 7, departing by February 8 with windy/cold weather in its wake. Fair and still cold but more tranquil February 9-11 but another disturbance may pass not that far south of the region about February 10.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Temperatures look a little more moderate heading into mid month. Next unsettled weather threat comes during the early and middle of this period, but this remains a low confidence forecast.

137 thoughts on “Tuesday February 2 2021 Forecast (7:56AM)”

  2. Thank you TK. Difficult forecast indeed but overall I think most forecasts worked out well. Near impossible with these systems to pinpoint the exact location of the coastal front, banding, and the subsidence zone I got caught in most of the afternoon. Therefore, high bust potential in localized areas.

    I ended up with about 8″ after finally getting into some decent snows after dark for awhile. 8″ in 24 hours straight of snow was not necessarily the blistering snow rates I was hoping for but oh well.

    Here are the totals from the NWS:

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=PNS&issuedby=BOX

      1. Haha. I’d forgotten that. I was thinking 10 when all was said and done so have a nice bonus. Sure is pretty out there.

        1. I´ll bet.

          Here, its a lot of standing water on yards with the ground frozen.

          Misty, foggy a bit and still a strong wind.

          1. Sons fiancé said they got a few inches in lincoln RI and now it’s all slush. I am surprised they are not far enough in to have more

  5. Thanks TK!

    I arrived at work about 20 minutes late as I had some frozen cement shoveling to do before it becomes super solid later this afternoon. Who knows what I’ll arrive to when I return?

    Storm range: 0-20” (very bizarre)

    Given the rain/mix slush I had to remove, so glad I am on the very lower end of that range above. Maybe a couple inches as a guess.

    Final total @ Logan yesterday = 1.2”

    Seasonal total to date = 24.3”

    How much for you JPD? 🙂

    1. Almost impossible to know for sure. More fell than what ended up on the ground and although I never saw it rain, it was so wet at times, I may have missed a brief mix or change to rain.

      I am going to say right around 4 inches. I know Hadi will disagree, but I am trying to be brutally honest here. I might be convinced to go to 4.5.

      It was a slop fest!

  6. Thanks TK !

    Fun storm.

    Thanks Phil ……. I need something on Aug 2nd telling me six more weeks of summer.

    1. Not very “fun” to clean up, as I mentioned above. It’s about the worst type of snow to move around especially when temps are still on either side of 32.

  7. Slight dp drops advecting in on backing winds.

    May help to drop temps a bit, as TK alluded to in his forecast.

    Probably something for the transition zone area where there´s 3-5 inches of wet snow and I´m guessing some slush and standing water.

    Not a sudden freeze, but perhaps enough to lightly slicken up pavements/car windshields, etc.

  8. Thank you, TK.

    This was a very interesting storm, the kind that could enter meteorological textbooks.

    NYC recorded amounts ranging from 15 to 18 inches. That’s a very significant storm. Happy for the people down there.

    I measured 2.4 inches very late last night, but it could have been a bit more as some had compacted. I’m about to clean up the slop and glop before it freezes over.

    Had the storm come up the coast on Saturday it would have been a bonanza everywhere. Alas.

    The storm Mark is writing about is another interesting one. I’m referring to the one that will occur when Tom Brady wins his 7th ring. As Mark alluded to this may be one of those late phasers with Halifax, NS (Brad Marchand’s hometown) being hit hard.

  9. Just from watching the tv mets, I get the impression that the potential SB Sunday system will have marginally cold air as well, at least to start. Also a very brief duration this time around.

    Late Sunday to early Monday?

    1. Cold air supply looks similar to this system. There would be R/S issues on the immediate coast for sure with a track like that.

      This next storm, if it does occur, looks to be more progressive.

  12. Thanks TK. So I had 10-16 for most of SNE, lower immediate coast and southeast MA. I think that worked out pretty well, maybe 8-14 with isolated higher would have been a little better. As TK said, a highly variable distribution but overall I think it worked out pretty well.

    Some astronomical totals coming in out of northern NJ and eastern PA. With the radar still fairly impressive down this way this morning, I expect we’ll see a couple of storm total amounts around 36″. Pretty insane for that area. The signals were there though, that a band like that would set up.

    Early thought – I think the weekend storm fails to phase in time. I prefer the GFS rather strongly over the Euro. Still a good deal of time to watch that one though. The Arctic hammer drops early next week.

    1. Euro looks promising, but I highly doubt it happens that way.
      More likely what WxWatcher said above. But, there is plenty of time.

      Waiting to see the 12Z Runs. 🙂

      What was your final total?

    1. That is correct, and in some cases much more than 15”. Most of the northern half of the state was a widespread 12-24 with isolated 30+. Southern half was less, especially along the coast and to the far south. I’m about 8” now but that’s over multiple periods of snow with a lengthy stretch of sleet and minimal accumulation in between. One of the most interesting storms I can remember especially in terms of its duration. We’re at 48 hours of precip down here.

  15. Just came back from my mid-morning coffee.

    Fo’ snizzle falling. 🙂

    Did Dr. Fred Ward originally come up with that or had that wx term been already established?

    snow grains + drizzle = “snizzle”

    We had some very good tv mets back in the day imho.

  16. Thanks TK
    Just finished cleaning up from just over a foot of snow. Blizzard criteria officially met at three cities in CT. Waterbury, Greenwich, and Bridgeport. Two storm this winter of a foot plus makes me happy. Will there be a third one Sunday???

    1. Good for you Jimmy! You’ll probably add nicely to your total again on SB Sunday. 🙂

      Here in Boston I will likely be removing more icy slush and report late for work come Monday morning…again. 😉

      It would probably be better to just get a straight rain, then see what happens with the next storm.

  17. On the next storm, the approaching cold high may provide a much-needed assist, which we didn’t get at the coast with this latest system. There just wasn’t much cold air supply left from the decaying remnants of the Arctic incursion and really nothing of note behind it. Notice how it’s drizzly, overcast and not so cold in the wake of yesterday’s system. Well, that will likely be different next week no matter what happens. Timing is everything. The next storm could be a mix/rain to snow event, which I MUCH prefer to the other way around.

    1. Unlike this current event, it will get colder afterwards. Depends on how much moisture is left before departure probably.

    2. It depends on when that cold air arrives . According to models this would be a Sunday night event / Monday morning.

  20. At the halfway point of winter NY has taken the lead over Boston in the snowfall standings. NY is now up to 27.7 inches for the season while Boston is 24.3 inches for the season. Who will win when all is set and done???

  21. I hope we have a good battle the rest of the winter and will see what happens on the baseball field this season. With the moves the Yankees have made this season it would be a HUGE disappointment if they don’t win the AL East and get to the World Series.

    1. I don’t expect the Red Sox to be in contention at all even though Alex Cora is back as manager. Just like Tom Brady last year…NO WEAPONS!!!

  24. Philip NYC did not make it in to the top 10. If no additional snowfall comes from this storm it is the 16th biggest snowstorm on record according to a tweet I read from Meteorologist Jeff Smith of WABC Tv. They are above normal snowfall for the season.
    Here is a list of there biggest snowstorms on record thanks to this tweet from Meteorologist Amy Freeze of WABC Tv
    https://twitter.com/AmyFreeze7/status/1356178488806486018

  25. 12z GFS ….. OTS

    However, it has all the similar features the EURO has …….

    southern jet disturbance, northern jet stream trof and arctic plunge.

    For now, its northern jet trof is set up further east than the EURO´s and thus, the low is further east.

    Eric Fisher, time after time after time shows how the GFS needs to adjust west to get the actual outcome, some times by hundreds of miles.

  26. So which model won the battle of the models with yesterday’s event. For Coastal areas it was the GFS, but back from the coast, the GFS failed. More like the NAM won that one.

    Thoughts…

    1. I think you just summarized it quite nicely.

      This was a storm where the model bias´ verified. GFS is always mild and NAM is always loaded with snow. Worked out at the coast for the GFS, inland for the NAM, as you described.

  27. WxWatcher, wow, 12-24 inches (and possibly as much as 30) in parts of Northern NJ, probably along the stretch of the Garden State Parkway near the Montvale Service Area. Back when Nemo hit, I was driving back from a funeral near Philadelphia. Philly got a couple of inches, so I figures what the heck, just start driving. At the Montvale Service Area there was around a foot of snow. With clear blue skies I figured I’d just keep going, in spite of warnings on the highway not to. When I reached Connecticut, which isn’t that far from the Northern section of the Garden State Parkway it became VERY clear why I was not supposed to be driving. At least 36 inches of snow with massive snow banks. All exits blocked, and still about 6 inches of unplowed snow on the roads. I was driving a big SUV so I was okay, going around 30 mph. Roads got much better, though icy, in Rhode Island.

    2. How did the areas in NW Jersey Fare. Places like Sussex?
      I visited there once to attend a wedding. Very nice area with some elevation to boot as there are a couple of ski areas there pr nearby.

  32. I think I’m sore and tired from 4 hours of shoveling, moving a 400 pound tree limb at 1:30 a.m. and 2.5 hours of sleep. HAHAHA

  34. 13 inches in Amesbury. It was ferocious for 6 hours or so last night. So glad we moved to a condominium complex a few years ago. All we have to do is watch the place get cleared.

  36. Euro says the polar vortex is coming to the central US/Canadian border.

    That would be a fun pattern, huge temp gradient between frigid north-central US and warming southern US.

  38. Mark I hope if this storm materializes you get in on those double digit snowfalls. Your part of CT get ripped off when it comes to snow.

    1. Yeah me too. I felt we got a bit ripped off in the December storm as well. Need to get into one of those heavy bands as it is pivoting over me. Of course, we need to get the storm in here first before we start talking about where the banding sets up 🙂

      1. I keep having a feeling this will be all timing dependent. That we will experience some precip. The cold that follows it on Monday makes me think if this does materialize that it won’t be rain. I know we’re many days removed but I have a sinking feeling (because I hate snow lol)

  41. The Sunday storm is too close to the coast, especially for east coastal SNE much like the previous one. They need to be much farther out into the ocean so whatever cold air is left, can be tapped down southward to the coast…I think.

    Coastal huggers rarely bring widespread snows.

    1. First of all, “is too close to the coast” doesn’t really mean anything, because that storm is still days away and we don’t know what the track will be or even if the energy will phase.

      Secondly, some of our biggest snowfalls have taken place with low centers tracking over or just south of Long Island and over Cape Cod and the islands. These setups don’t really fit into textbook definitions. Just look at the setup from the storm that is still impacting us right now… How many of even the most experienced forecasters would have dared to forecast an inch of snow at Logan airport and 20 inches of snow just 15 miles away? The atmosphere is a very complex thing and we always try to fit it into these neat little boxes. It doesn’t fit. 🙂

      1. Yes this weekend has many scenarios on the table. The 12z ECMWF Control is still advertising a somewhat warmer solution that I was probably wrong about when you inquired a few days back. With a 540 line stretching from eastern NY into southern VT into central NH and southern ME., that would bring a snow to mix to rain to even snow at the end scenario, but I am much less confident in that outcome or really any outcome at the moment. Lets let our current system move out and see what 12z Thursday brings.

        We got about 8″ yesterday at my home. Certainly different zones of accumulation. The immediate coast, the suburbs NW of Boston. East and West of I91. CT was basically split in two. You can find a model solution to satisfy every bias. GFS was good for the coast and East of 91. 12k NAM good NW of Boston and and West of 91. ECMWF was on spot 495 area south of the Pike. HRRR highlighted some zones of snow banding from east of Springfield to the central RT 2 Corridor. Really was not pleased with the 3k NAM which I use a lot, but didn’t shine this time. As usual, I never looked at the other crap.

        Sorry I didn’t post much. When I see those 400 comment blogs, I am happy for TK and that he created such a vibrant community, but they overwhelm my small brain.

        1. I admire the honesty. I actually read each and every comment yesterday, including a normal work day, 2 rounds of shoveling (as previously mentioned, including the tree limb moving at 1:30am), watched 2 one-hour specials and a movie, and a Bruins game. After that I slept 2 1/2 hours, got up and finished some lingering snow removal, went to work, came home, set up my laptop so my mother could zoom meet with her financial advisor, who also happens to be mine, and I had a meeting following that. I think I managed to squeeze a cup of coffee in there somewhere. I was about to finally sit down when I remembered I have 2 loads of laundry, oh yeah, it’s also the night to take out trash & recycle. 😉

  43. From Judah Cohen
    I can’t say that I am unbiased but ECMWF is predicting a near repeat of yesterday’s storm for Superbowl Sunday while GFS parallel places the storm further north. I like to say #snow falls/storms following #polarvortex splits are “feast or famine” so my money is on the ECMWF model

  45. The jackpot for SNE was Lowell at 24 inches (two feet)!

    UNCLE! UNCLE! UNCLE! 🙂

    That amount is my personal snowfall limit.

  47. Pete mentioned our own groundhog “Ms. G”.

    TK – Shouldn’t you consider her “outlook” as well? NO way she saw her shadow today. 😉

    1. They see their shadows because of all of the photography lights shining on them. But ….and I repeat….Todd Gross always said that if we only get six more weeks of winter, we are well ahead of the game

    1. Eric Fisher
      @ericfisher
      3h

      The most amazing gradient here is Ipswich at 1.5″ to West Newbury at 20″. Is that even real? They’re ~12 miles apart and both at sea level

  53. Here’s the observed snow map for my local area. I live about 20 miles east of Philadelphia, within the 6 to 8 inch band. This storm was *incredibly* well forecast here, by many local meteorologists. They can’t all work out this well of course, but I’m glad that “on the biggest stage” so to speak, the forecast was right on the money. We don’t see many storms like this in these parts…

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EtP43mBWYAgj7An?format=png&name=900×900

    1. You must be near Camden or Swedesboro kinda. Revealed there a bunch when I used to travel for work.

      Love Philly. I have a daughter that goes to St. Joe’s. Visiting her in a couple weeks.

      2. Yep! I’m just east of Camden in Mount Laurel. I like it here a lot. Was a little nervous about moving out of New England, but it really is a good area. And Philly has its trouble spots (like any city) but there’s a lot to do there.

    2. Epic storm. Would be wild if that Euro run materialized and dumped another foot plus on those same areas.

      Difficult forecast in SNE but overall I think most panned of them panned out pretty well here too.

        1. Haha, I agree with the panning out of the panning out. Well forecast there too! Another foot of snow here would make me nervous. We’ll do some decent melting the next few days, but another big snow on top of what we already had, then potentially more cold and snow behind it, is a recipe for a bad flood season come spring…

  54. Sort of last minute but just saw this…..

    NWS Boston
    @NWSBoston
    5h

    This evening (Feb 2) at 7pm a couple of our meteorologists will present a webinar on Top 10 Southern New England Snowstorms. It will be educational and entertaining. Plus a chance to ask us questions you have. https://weather.gov/box/webinars to sign up. “See” you this evening!

  55. RE: Long range…

    I’m basically throwing in the towel on the seasonal forecast. Specifically, the idea of a dominant Southeast ridge. Granted, December and January did work out very much in the way I expected in terms of sensible weather, but largely not for the right reasons. And while the next few days look “mild-ish”, I don’t see how we avoid a pretty lengthy cold spell upcoming. And with no signs of the -AO breaking and the MJO set to head towards phase 8 later in the month, I wonder if a prevailing near or even below normal temperature pattern holds on right through the month. There are certain to be more winter weather opportunities to come…

    It’s not exactly clear to me why a more typical La Nina pattern has failed to take hold, but I strongly suspect the events in the stratosphere and subsequent effects on the AO are responsible. I think the blocking pattern, even though it actually contributed to a lengthy stretch of mild and tranquil weather, is subsequently also going to be responsible for the failure of SE ridge development, which is finally going to allow a sustained stretch of winter weather the likes of which we haven’t seen in a couple years.

    1. Thank you for all your contributions.

      Weather, climate, and meteorology are fascinating. I know next to nothing about all three. Yet, I’m spellbound by them, always. The complexity, variety, interactions of a tremendous number of variables.

      With this I close: Riders on the Storm – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iv8GW1GaoIc

    2. I agree with almost all you wrote. The only thing I may differ on is defining what all of February looks like. The one consistency all winter has been the inaccuracy of the ECMWF weeklies. Remember what they looked like 10 days ago?

      But to your larger point, I think you are very much on the right path that the AO and also NAO has greatly impacted the La Niña influence. Combined this with some worse than usual model performance and lack of historical comparisons of similar climate set ups, its been an incredibly difficult term to predict the weather 5 days out or for the season.

      1. Yep, the weekly and ensemble products beyond day 10 this winter have been dreadful. And given there’s not much historical precedent for a pattern like this in a moderate/strong La Nina year, it’s been a struggle. And because of that your point is well taken. It’s still possible the SE ridge does set up shop later in the month, but it looks less likely to me than it had.

  56. Thank you WxW & JMA for your opinions & sharing your expertise!

    I’ll be addressing soon why my forecast for March may verify, about a half month early. 😉 HINT: It’s related to a point made above.

    1. Seasonal forecasting is incredibly hard. It’s like throwing at a dartboard sometimes.

      TK, if your expected March pattern is coming early, does that mean you also expect it to end earlier in March?

      1. I have no idea, because it will mean that the large scale pattern is already divergent from my expectation and I’ll have to re-evaluate everything. My gut feeling is we are not about to turn on the full winter pattern and stay in it. In other words, this is not going to turn into a memorable winter in terms of getting hammered over and over. But I also believe we are not nearly finished with tracking some interesting systems.

  58. Looking over the data and yes the NAM blew it here in costal areas but did really well elsewhere. If you take a look at the NY/NJ area you will see they the GFS/EURO was not very good and the NAM did the best. GGEm was pretty good too down there. Just some food for thought.

    1. The NAM did partially OK elsewhere. No model nailed it complete. And no model failed completely either. They were all wrong somewhere and OK other places.

      The NAM was far too cold right to the coast. That was probably the biggest error of all.

  59. Lightly snowing here in pembroke putting a cover down , Nice call Tom . Think we see a little more tomorrow morning.

    1. That was also in my blog forecast as well starting with Monday’s update. 😉 Small accumulation this morning. Had to toss the Canadian guidance that had several inches. 😉

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