Wednesday February 3 2021 Forecast (7:48AM)

83 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

The broad low pressure circulation that constitutes the winter storm still having a minor impact on the region today will gradually drift off to the east and away from us through tonight, but during that process we still have a little bit of ocean-effect snow on the North Shore and into Metro Boston this morning and another disturbance passing by to the southeast that will cause some snow shower activity across southern and eastern sections this morning into early afternoon, so some spotty small snowfall accumulations can be expected. In areas that were a little warmer during the recent storm and some melting occurred, a lot of that froze up overnight so beware of icy patches if you are heading out today. A narrow area of high pressure moves in and provides us with one nice winter day on Thursday before the next system brings unsettled weather in for Friday. This will be a minor impact event as low pressure tracks well northwest of New England and drags its frontal boundaries through the region – warm front followed quickly by cold front. Enough cold air will be around for a minor snowfall event at the start of this mainly in northern MA and southern NH with minor accumulation there, but the bulk of what falls will be in the form of rain and come later in the day. This system will push offshore and open the door to colder air coming back in over the weekend. The next storm threat we are watching is for Sunday, but right now my opinion is that 2 pieces of energy needing to phase for this to become anything significant will not phase and we’ll just have some cloudiness and a chance of light snowfall. However, with it being day 5 of this forecast, apply the uncertainty of a forecast 5 days out along with the additional questionable guidance performance, and it goes without saying that we’ll have to keep a close eye on this.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a chance of light snow or snow showers through mid afternoon. Spotty dustings and coatings of snow. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32.Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. A period of rain south and mix/snow northern MA and southern NH with accumulation of up to but mostly less than 1 inch, then numerous rain showers in all areas during the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind SE up to 10 MPH morning, SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind W 10-20 MPH. Watch for black ice formation!

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow or flurries. Highs 27-34. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

Leaning toward a colder/drier period of weather with a weaker storm track to the south of the region. More about this in upcoming blog posts…

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

Low confidence but leaning toward a slight temperature moderation but more active weather pattern for mid February. Elaboration to come…

83 thoughts on “Wednesday February 3 2021 Forecast (7:48AM)”

  4. 3 pieces of disconnected energy over or close to North America around the time of the Sunday time frame, lean us towards a non impactful solution for SNE, but again lets let the early week system finally make a full departure from its sphere of influence and then reevaluate in 24 hours.

    As for the internet circulated impressive snowfall totals for the Sunday storm and the subsequent storms, remember many of these people tend to benefit from a more extreme weather pattern and that’s before we get into their personal obsession over snow vs broad interest in the more mundane types of weather.

    1. Indeed there is an obsession with snow. Drives clicks if you have a storm leading. I still think we have some precip Sunday though it might not be what those sites want for the clicks they need. But we shall see… I still think the possibility for some snow is on the table.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    After the Euro having the SBB for 3-4 successive runs, it LOST it on the 0Z run last night with a Southern system passing OTS well South of us. Oh well, what else is now. 0Z UKMET had it for sure. The GFS is getting closer all the time. Maybe the Euro burped and it will be back on the 12z run. Nah, who am I kidding.
    That system is GONE baby GONE!

    Oh in case you didn’t figure it out, SBB = Super Bowl Blizzard

    Speaking of SB, I haven’t watched a single football game this season. NOT a one! However, seeing as how my wife has 5 numbers on the football square for the game (for charity, MS).
    She hit it a few years ago and won the top prize of $500, which she in turn donated back to MS. So, we may tune in for this game. I am actually curious to see how Tom and Gronk perform.

    1. And, to my surprise, I found that I really enjoyed watching playoff football this year while not freaking out about how the Patriots were doing!

      1. I did the same, Jean. I am sorry the Bills won’t be playing Sunday, but do plan to watch and enjoy. I’d love to see Brady and company win, but he really has not one thing to prove so it is time to enjoy.

        It speaks volumes about the respect of his former treammates that Gronk and Brown joined Brady at Tampa Bay.

  6. Thanks TK.

    That was a pretty predictable cave job by the Euro last night. Definitely a systemic bias with that model in the ~days 4-7 range to mishandle storms like that. Not every single time, but often enough that it’s recognizable.

      1. It’s only Tuesday we have had storms vanish with miss all over them and they come back and hit us . I’m going with a storm .

        1. Hope you are correct. Too much has to come together for that storm on Sunday. Could it happen? Sure. Will it happen? I doubt it.

  8. Vicki, I am 5 episodes into Heartland, season 12.
    Just as good as ever. They keep coming up with story lines to keep it going….. Enjoy.

  10. Peyton Manning got his hall of fame induction call today. This Sunday will mark Brady’s fourth superbowl since Manning retired.

  12. Thanks TK
    I had a feeling for the Super Bowl Sunday storm threat the EURO was on to something or it was out to lunch.

  13. One more comment about the event just leaving us. The chart that I bet a lot of people forgot to factor in, didn’t factor in enough, or just never looked at it at all…

    SST anomalies. That is your reason why what happened at the coast did. Period. I fit into category 2. Looked, but gave it less weight than it deserved.

    1. Makes perfect sense. I, too, looked, but I thought that at
      about 40 1/2 degrees, it wouldn’t be as large a factor.
      I don’t think it would have been had we had an Arctic High in place, but given that the cold was retreating, it WAS a major factor.

      Here in JP we are about 5-6 miles from the water. It stayed virtually all snow here in JP, save for perhaps a brief period of mix/rain that I may have missed. Yet, we only accumulated about 4 inches of snow. I am sure our qpf was very similar or even more than areas that received all of the snow. The problem was that the snow was so water logged that it was very very difficult for it to accumulate.

      1. And I am not even upset that we didn’t get all of that snow. Every time I looked out the window, it was SNOWING, so I can’t complain. WE got the snow storm, the snow just didn’t accumulate that much. 🙂

    1. In my meteorological opinion, the weather pattern is going to be more supportive of winter storm opportunities after February 14th, for an indeterminate amount of time.

      1. Completely agree. I am interested to see how the short rage guidance handles that threat when we get into range

  18. At least there will be stuff to track and it won’t be boring like January was. Will see if any of these threats materialize.

  19. Yeah, the February pattern sure does not look boring. They’re not all going to hit (i.e. Sunday), but I doubt they all miss, and as TK said it may even be towards the second half of the month where the even better chances lie…

    1. Good. My son in law finally gave in and bought a snow blower. Won’t be here till the 10th. So the latter half of the month would be nice 🙂

      1. Hi Vicki…Make sure your son in law is careful while operating a snow blower. Back in the 1990s, a co-worker’s husband died of a heart attack while operating one. It was his first time as his wife surprised him with the blower as a Christmas present, thinking it would prevent what ultimately happened. When I shovel, no matter the type of snow, I always take frequent breaks as my father always preached to me.
        Maybe blowers today practically operate themselves, but make sure your son in law doesn’t exert himself while operating it.

        Back in the early 1980s I bought a snow blower, used it once, then never again. I just didn’t like it. I’ll stick to shoveling and just take my time like my father taught me, even if it’s a day at a time. 🙂

  22. Thank you, TK.

    Just checked in with my KNMI – Dutch meteorological institute – friends and they’re saying the Scandinavian high due to make its presence felt in the Netherlands by Sunday is NOT going to be as strong as initially thought (also less cold), and will recede after about a 5-7 day stretch. May be some accumulating snows in Northeast England and certainly in parts of Scotland, Sunday and Monday of next week.

  24. The medium range guidance continues to really struggle. All of a sudden, next week’s cold is either gone or delayed on most of the models. Guessing we’re seeing some reverberations from the departure of our recent big storm, but either way, best not to put much trust in anything beyond day 4 right now…

    1. FWIW, when we get these split stream “phasing failures” like we’ll probably be seeing Sunday, those usually aren’t followed by an immediate cold blast. So it would seem more likely that if we’re going to see Arctic air next week, it would be later rather than sooner.

      1. Ironically, the Tuesday system may have a better chance of phasing now, though if it happens, it would probably occur past our latitude. May see a bigger cold push after that system but as you say, trying to time all these fast moving pieces of energy and whether they phase or not beyond 4 or 5 days out is pretty much a fruitless effort right now.

  25. If the storm misses Super Bowl Sunday it is not a bad thing as people who work for the department of public works won’t get that call to come into work and they can be home to watch the big game.

  26. Pattern is not in support of phasing Sunday, and even less so into next week.

    It’s important to note that Canada is going to be cold for quite a while, and a lot of it is not going to be just “normal” cold, but below normal cold. Not the kind of pattern that sends arctic blasts into the Northeast, at least for a while anyway. But we see some pretty serious cold (some anomalies of -35 or even greater) in interior western and central Canada heading for the northern Rockies & Upper Plains in the days ahead. That doesn’t get captured and blasted eastward, but it kind of “leaks” eastward with time – in modified form of course, which is also rather normal to have happen. We’re further south than west central Canada. That makes sense from a climate standpoint. Anyway, what I see starting to take shape as we head through the first half of February and reach the middle of the month is what I was envisioning for the end of February into March when I wrote my winter outlook. Why earlier? The difficulty in getting any persistent SE ridging. That’s your answer. I was banking on more SE ridge to establish in January and persist well into February. But every time it tries to get going it gets kicked back down… I should also note I anticipated less blocking than we have seen, so this pattern evolution is not really starting from the exact same point that I thought it would be. I thought originally we’d be coming out of a +AO/NAO in March with a little premature weakening of La Nina. Oh well… Now to see how it all plays out in the coming few weeks. I love weather… 🙂

  27. I´m on the side of hoping for a long term quiet pattern, country-wide.

    We need to get people vaccinated. Any delays only offer more opportunity for spread, which allows more opportunity for variants to develop.

    Without the weather, despite great efforts by many folks, the vaccination process is already slow enough without any adverse weather conditions.

    2. Unfortunately, the storm down here has caused considerable disruptions to vaccination operations with several “mega-sites” having to close for multiple days. This was a major concern of our emergency management partners during numerous briefings over the past week.

  28. FWIW, the CFS temp anomaly over the next 6 weeks shows more negative departure in Canada and the US than I have seen in a very long time.

    I had a little chuckle seeing it display a -24 to -37F departure across the region at 12z on February 28. Brr! 😉

  29. Thanks for all your thoughts TK
    Did the Groundhog get it right this year predicting six more weeks of winter???

    1. It’s bound to “get it right” (that is, be lead to the “correct scroll” based on what they sprinkle on them) once in a while. 😉 Otherwise, it’s the same thing as a coin flip. But it is fun watching the guys in the funny hats do that ritual every Feb 2. 🙂

  30. I don’t put much stock into the Groundhog as well as the Farmers’ Almanac. It’s fun to listen to what they have to say and I do tune in every year to see what the Groundhog has to say. I will be interested if the almanac gets the 1-2 feet blizzard they are predicting for the middle of February.

    1. Yes, they are both fun. The Groundhog “forecast” has zero meteorological value and the almanac forecasts are maybe only slightly more valuable. A winter forecast made in July? No thanks! Forget about going all the way out to the start of the following winter. 😉

      This year is a great example too…
      The Farmer’s Almanac out of Maine predicted a harsh cold snowy winter.
      The Old Farmer’s Almanac out of NH predicted the opposite.
      So far, they’re both essentially wrong (through January).

  31. 12z EPS has a decent signal for a threat around 2/13 and pattern looks wintery beyond then. Definitely support there for what has been discussed today.

    1. How does the GFS Ens look in comparison? E products have been suffering quite a bit and I don’t have much confidence in them.

      1. GEFS are consistent chilly in the long range as well but not seeing any signal for storm around Valentines Day. Long ways off though. Half the battle is just getting the cold air in here so that’s a positive sign.

    2. Check that, 2/13 threat was the Canadian and the EPS threats were more centered on next week Tues/Wed, which I mentioned above, and again around the 14-16th.

      I can learn to be patient…

        1. This is one solution I really don’t buy at all. I think the entire model set is completely out to lunch. As Bart Simpson would say, “it’s craptacular”.

            1. As noted in my blog post today, the storm track will be suppressed to the south for much of next week. I don’t have a particular track I’m going with for that system, because that particular system may never even exist, at least as a recognizable low pressure center.

  32. Only marginal cold for the next Tuesday threat.

    TK – Is the last week in the month through the first week of March when the best chance of cold & snow opportunities return?

    1. Just eyeing the general second half of February at least into early March at this point… Before that the trend is cold & dry again. Not numbing cold, just colder overall. Let me put it this way, there is NO sign at all of any sustained “winter warm” pattern.

  33. I’m not always one to repeat myself but this should clear next week up a bit…

    “DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

    Leaning toward a colder/drier period of weather with a weaker storm track to the south of the region. More about this in upcoming blog posts…”

    It’s not really possible to elaborate with any more detail than this beyond day 5.

      1. The 18z op was far different looking than that 12z op. That kind of back and forth is a red flag.

        It has the general idea down, but the details are just very non-trustable.

  36. 6Z Icon and to a lesser extent gfs want to make lemonade from piss on SB Sunday. How can that be?
    Euro keeps it piss. as does the cmc.

    1. That can be because of the same comments that myself & folks like WxW and JMA have made about the models.

      ECMWF will do better now with this system, GFS will have a bad run or 2. The ICON … does that one ever have a good run? 😉

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