Saturday February 6 2021 Forecast (9:44AM)

219 Comments

COMMENTARY

Ever open your tool box and grab the wrench you are sure fits, then it just kind of fits but mostly doesn’t fit and you try to angle it so it will do the job anyway, but then…it doesn’t? And so you get another one, and it looks perfect, but it’s too small, and it doesn’t go around the nut, and you can’t try to fudge that one. Admittedly I’m not much of a fix-it so this hasn’t really happened to me recently … unless those wrenches are the different computer models and the nut is the forecast. Well, forecasting can drive you nuts, but I’m not letting this one drive me nuts. I’ve been trying to figure out in the era of suffering model guidance due to pandemic-induced data shortages which models are messing up which things in which events, but sometimes I’m not sure I’ve made any real progress, so I find myself just repeating the process each time from scratch, sort of like trying to create something in the kitchen. Well, I’m not much of a cook either, so I’m just going to stick to weather and tackle yet another forecast. Should be an easy one right? Fast-moving, non-phasing systems, quick hit, not a ton of snow, maybe a marginal rain vs. snow area for a small portion of the region. Should be a fairly straightforward forecast with a few glances at the guidance to make sure you’re not driving the wrong way down a one-way street. And then you have short range high resolution models spitting out numbers that even your best experience tell you can’t be right while guidance with less resolution is painting a picture much closer to what you envisioned based on your experience forecasting. “Yeah, but the high resolution guidance is made to be better, isn’t it?!” And then I sit here at 8:30 a.m. waiting for just “one more run” of the HRRR model before updating. Meanwhile, I’m thinking about maps I see posted from a source I really trust that are quite a bit higher than the idea I have of how this plays out. Is forecasting a little snowstorm really supposed to be this much of a challenge? I guess so! Bring it on. Let met get started on this update ….. riiiiiiiight after that HRRR finishes coming in. 😉 Ok, it’s done, here we go!

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

High pressure provides us with a nice winter day today and then 2 non-phasing disturbances bring us some unsettled weather for Sunday. The southern energy will be in the form of a fast moving low pressure area moving northeastward and passing southeast of New England, giving the region a 6 to 8 hour shot of snowfall, except that it should be warm enough for this to start as rain or a mix over coastal locations of southeastern MA and especially Cape Cod, after which it should quickly turn to snow there. Due to the fast-moving, non-phasing nature of this feature, while it can produce a pretty solid band or two of snow during Sunday afternoon and early evening, its short-duration will prevent a more significant snowfall than we are going to see. The northern energy will be coming along during the evening and has the potential to produce an additional snow shower or squall especially west and north of Boston. This will lead a shot of colder air with some wind into the region for Monday. The next low pressure system comes along in a fast-flowing jet stream for Tuesday, but we won’t be holding onto that much cold air so this system, while probably a snow event for interior areas, may be snow or rain closer to the coast and in southern locations. Will iron out the details over the next couple days on that one. That system is gone and it’s back to high pressure and fair weather Wednesday.

TODAY: Sunshine & patchy clouds. Highs 34-41. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 17-24. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Thickening overcast followed by snow arriving southwest to northeast late morning through early afternoon, may start as rain southeastern MA and southern RI before changing to snow, steadiest through the afternoon, and ending rapidly west to east by early evening. Snowfall accumulation 1-3 inches north and west of a Boston-Providence line, 3-5 inches to the southeast except 5-8 inches possible near the MA South Coast to the Upper Cape Cod region. Highs 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH morning, NE 10-20 MPH afternoon except 15-25 MPH southeastern MA with some higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with a snow shower or squall possible north and west of Boston. Clearing overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH morning, W 5-15 MPH afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 12-19. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow except snow may change to rain South Coast. Highs 30-35 southern NH and northern MA, 35-40 southern MA & RI. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Watch for black ice formation! Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

Low to moderate confidence forecast. System passes to the south early February 11. Next storm threat for this area comes later February 12 into February 13 before drier/colder finish to the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

Additional opportunities for wintry weather eventsnear the border of very cold air north and milder air to the south, and in the general storm track path.

219 thoughts on “Saturday February 6 2021 Forecast (9:44AM)”

  4. I wonder if this will be a rare TK Two Post day where guidance shifts even more between this post and the evening.

  8. Tk, so you caved and went with 4-8.
    I don’t envy you guys. I don’t know how one makes a forecast.

    Tomorrow will be an interesting day all around. Looking forward to it. 🙂

    1. I didn’t really cave Dave, you can call it an attempted save on a fast-moving wave that will be a close shave. 😉

      Actually, I’m leaning toward the lower sides of that 4-8. If you think about it, it’s not unrealistic to get the 1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates into at least those areas, for a little while. That’s a moderate snowfall if it comes to fruition. I can’t ignore it completely.

      1. Ok. Let’s say I was surprised to see you post those amounts.

        I appreciated the dedicated effort you put into that forecast.

        I can’t wait to see how it all pans out.

        Many thanks

  10. Thanks for all your work,TK. Can I assume that the Natick/Wellesley area would be in the 4-8 range. Hopefully I can do clean up before the game and then enjoy a great game from TB12.

    1. Yeah, I think they fit into the 4-8 area, lean lower side as it stands now.

      I’d love to say this is my final call but I am leaving the door open.

    1. Notes taken. I reserve the right to go in and tweak these #’s but I’m comfortable with what I have now because I think it kind of covers both the low & high ends adequately enough.

  13. It’s really hard NOT to focus on the HIGHER number with these ranges. We as schoolkids watching Don Kent, Bob Copeland etc. sure did! 😀

    I bet a young TK did as well. 😉

  15. I like ch 5’s map but I think that’s a little high for Boston but not down my way . I’m suspecting this will be a heavy snow ??

    2. I think channel 4s map most accurately reflects how much will fall in any particular location. You could achieve about a half a foot of snow while Boston maxes out around 3.5.

  20. Thanks, TK!

    Super discussion again, sir!

    Vicki mentioned it above, but remembering the one of the Granddaddy of all storms, The Great Blizzard of 1978, 43 years ago.

    I, too, Vicki, can remember many details as is if was yesterday. We actually went to school that Monday morning and had an early dismissal at 11 am. The normal five minute drive from Mansfield High School took 45.

    There were some elementary schools (Norton, I believe) that had a full-day of classes that day, and kids and staff were snowed in their buildings for several days!

    1. Remember it like it was yesterday. I was the last on to leave work that day. I was working at our satellite office above the old Exeter Street theatre. It was spitting snow all afternoon and by the time I locked up the office at 4PM, it was really beginning to get going. From the snow showers going on all afternoon there was perhaps 1/2 – 1 inch on the ground.

      I took a bus home to JP and by the time I arrived at home, there was 6 inches on the ground.

      About 9 or 10 that evening I took a walk to our local Dunkin Donuts. Probably not a wise decision. I could NOT believe how hard the wind was blowing. I thought that a few majestic maples would topple. (they did not)

      Amazing storm that I will NEVER forget!!

  22. Amazing, thinking about that ’78 storm.

    By the time we get to the 45th anniversary, I am going to have pout together a slide show of pics from around my area and supplement those with the well-known regional shots from the storm. I have a lot of old slides from my father & older brothers to go through. I have 2 years to accomplish it.

    1. On the 40th anniversary of the storm, the Mansfield Historical Society had a wonderful retrospective at the public library. More than 100 people showed and shared their stories about the Storm. It was a wonderful experience!

      I have the PowerPoint from that presentation. If I can’t figure out how to get it here, I will share with you via your email.

      I also have an MP3 of NOAA weather radio out of Providence at the height of the storm.

      1. For the 40th anniversary I attended that great talk up at Granite Links which was held by NWS/BHO.

        The panel discussion included Bruce Schwoegler and Bob Copeland along with others others. Don Kent’s son was there and he looks so much like his dad you would swear you were talking to a younger version of Don who stepped out of a time machine. What a very pleasant fellow too! Jim Cantore was also there and gave a talk.

    2. The 50th anniversary should be a very grand time. TBD if I live to see it. I just turned 60 back in November. I would sure like to still be around. 🙂

      2028 seems so far away. 😉

  23. 12Z UKMET 10:1 Snow.

    The list of models predicting 1-3 inches for Boston is getting pretty long:

    HRRR
    RDPS
    GDPS
    UKMET
    GFS

    How will the Euro play it?

    2. 1-3 is probably the right call for you as this in my opinion is geared more for the SS & cape cod for the higher totals I believe .

  25. Thanks TK!

    I foresee a lot of snow #’s busting high with this. It took awhile, but we appear to finally be seeing the southeast shift. Certainly not a complete miss as I was favoring the other day, but I wouldn’t be betting the NAM’s right now against everything else. I think most of SNE comes in under 4”. Maybe a narrow stripe of 4-7 if it’s close enough, but I also wouldn’t rule out a scenario where most places don’t see much of any accumulation.

  27. Thank you TK for the great commentary and great analogy.
    Regarding the anniversary of the 78 Blizzard, I was in kindergarten and remember the snow appearing to me as giant walls of snow that I could not see over, almost like walking through a maze when your that small. I felt like I was on a different planet. That storm is what gave me my interest in weather which has stuck with me to this day.

    1. After the storm, I remember walking on top of cars in Cambridge. Incredible, There was so much snow, it was like a fantasy world.

    2. Our first winter in marshfield. I grew up steps from the beach on ocean bluff . We were evacuated as the main road was a river . The last time I saws similar storm without the snow was the no name storm . Again the main road has water flowing & right up behind my house the cottages were being ripped from there foundations, it was crazy !!

  28. Jp Dave that pic you posted as I was typing, puts a picture to what I was describing at the same age as your daughter. 🙂

  30. I am mobile but just had a friend text me this (do what you want with your snowfall maps.
    12z ECMWF precip
    CEF .15-.20
    ORH 25-.30
    BED/LWM .30-.40
    BOS .40-.50
    HYA 1.00 but with mix

    1. Oh here I was thinking I giving you all early breaking news but Dave already has the snowfall map produced.

      Hanging head in shame and walking away ….

  31. As much as I like snow, I really wasn’t looking forward to shoveling right after the SB anyway. I can get ready for bed instead and relax.

    1. Well this isn’t necessarily all or nothing either… There is still going to be some snow and likely enough to move, depending on your exact location of course.

      1. Tk I still am thinking the jack pot down this way & less for Boston do you agree . Not holding you to it what’s your call for the hospital & what’s your call for down this way . Are we thinking this storm should be gone by say 8pm . Many thanks

        1. I’m pretty sure it’s long gone by 8. As far as “jackpot”, I have the same idea that I wrote above but just leaning toward the lower end of each range – a similar line of thinking to WxW’s above, but I just allowed for a strip of heavier snowfall rates in response to some mid level frontogenesis. Sometimes even these fast-moving things can do that. My call for the hospital area is about 4 inches occurring over a 6 to 8 hour period from around noon to very early evening. Down your way, let me go with 5ish.

          1. Appreciate that . Boston & here would start as light rain & then change over quickly ??? Thanks again.

            1. I think it starts as straight snow in Boston, at least here in JP. Who knows about that stupid airport.

            2. I think the city is straight snow (wet to start, medium consistency to end). The airport may have some raindrops mixed in at the start but mainly snow there too. It’s Plymouth County southward that probably starts as rain, at least along the coast and across the Cape. Depending on how quickly the air can cool adequately to support snow will determine how much they lose out from what would otherwise be 4-8 inches (based on my current expectation).

    1. This is reasonable, IMO. It is kind of a computerized representation of WxW’s ideas, and rather close to mine as well. 😉 And If I had to venture a guess, JMA would slide right into this camp as well.

  33. I think today’s temperatures have overachieved by quite a bit.
    I am sitting at 41 after topping out at 43. Should NOT have any
    effect on tomorrow’s system.

    2. I think we had a little bit of downslope warming. Guidance tends to miss that even with snow cover. Just adjust accordingly. If the ground was bare they probably would have come in 2 to 4 degrees warmer.

  35. Back home and taking a look at the 12z stuff. I agree with most of what all have written here.

    A few observations-

    1) The N and W cutoff is still not sharp enough by most models. Be careful of model guidance snowfall numbers west of 495 and north of Rt2.

    2) Don’t fall for any talk of ratios are going to help accumulation. This is not a ratio storm, particularly at the onset and by the time the colder air invades some of the best precip rates will be negating. Looking at the temp profiles in the eastern and south eastern part of the forecast area this look like 10:1 and maybe a bit less right near the coast in these areas. Rest of the area 10:1-12:1 at most.

    3) I am starting to see too much reliance by some forecast outlets on the National Blend of Models output. It can lead awry when the NAMs go Cookoo. Much like SREF and its snow tool which I used to live on before it went too NAM heavy, These input table driven blends can lead one astray.

  36. Hope you all are enjoying the snow. I am very much leaning lower ends but I could see areas seeing higher amounts in interior locations if the 700 level works out but I am just hesitant to bite on that as people are using the nam for that. https://twitter.com/Souza101Matt/status/1358139853809082371/photo/1

    For those wishing for warmer weather I don’t think many across the USA are going to see that. Looks like February could be in the Blue vs the orange /red I believe February could be the first winter month that ends up below normal in like 15 or 16 winter months.
    Here is a picture of me doing some rocky intertidal collection to warm you all up
    https://twitter.com/Souza101Matt/status/1356730993785384960

  37. Wow, 12z Euro with FIVE snow events in the next 10 days, including tomorrow’s storm. None of them are whoppers, but an active pattern ahead for sure.

    Tuesday’s system looking a bit more robust again on the Euro with 2-4″ regionwide and Friday’s system drops a general 6″ across the region.

    Here is the run total snow (does not include the 5th system on Day 10 which is only getting started at the end of the run)…

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2021020612&fh=240&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc&m=ecmwf_full

    1. 12z UKMET also delivering 2-5″ Tuesday, especially Pike north and is gearing up for the Friday system at the end of its run.

  38. Ok. I have seen enough. I shaved a little off the snow amounts for most areas, basically using 1-3 & 3-5 inches, with the door open for a small 5-8 inch area somewhere in the MA South Coast region. I may even pull that or trim an inch or 2 off the top if things still look this way tonight.

      2. Yes. That was what finally did it. I tried to hold out as long as I could with options, but pretty much believing in the lower totals scenario all along. I’ve just been burned enough to not have 100% confidence in that.

    2. I was wondering when you would come around.

      For awhile now, I have been thinking 1-3 and 3-6 for the areas you outline. Even mentioned that to my wife last night when I laughed out loud at Wankum’s snow map. 🙂

      Winter Strom Warning “SHOULD” be converted to a Winter
      Weather Advisory.

    3. I was just writing reply to your above. I was going 1-3 north and west highest south and east parts of that area. 3-5 elsewhere. Then wrote an area of 5-7 somewhere north and west of where the mix show could up on the cape and the inland south coast area of SNE.

      This is a fun one. I think you can tell I have enjoyed it and like every event big or small there are parts that we won’t get right.

      As for sensible weather outcomes beyond Sunday, if the last week has shown us anything, our model guidance is bipolar and jumps from viable to useless nearly each run.

      1. I’ve had a blast with forecasting this one. It was a fun challenge with all the back & forth of the guidance, watching the global guidance kind of play it cool & laid back, like they were the Steely Dan of the lot, and then the other stuff falling in line with the masters of jazz-influenced smooth rock & roll with dark & dry comedic lyrics over-infused with sarcasm . 😉 ….But here we are under 24 hours from the start of the event and I’m still not sure I know how it’s going to work out. I think I do, but I am not 100% there.

        As for beyond… some of those chances intrigue me, but I think we’re in for a whole lot of not much despite the activity during this week, and then things may get fun for a little while shortly after that. I really do think now my March forecast is coming during the second half of February, thanks to the slow-show to often no-show SE ridge. Notice that the GFS ensemble MJO forecast has been pretty rooted on the phase 6/7 border? Not really ideal for snow, but far from camp “no snow” too. One thing is for sure, NO furnace pattern. Most of the US will be negative departure for temps, although New England is going to escape the big negative anomalies for a while at least.

        1. Loving the look moving forward the rest of the month. Hopefully we can keep it rolling into early March.

      1. I’ve noticed they pretty much always go to a WSW for 4-6 or 7″ event. Probably the rationale is that it is falling over a short period of time (6-8 hours) so higher impact.

  40. NWS is Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay
    tooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
    Sloooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooow

    To adjust!!!!

    They still have the Winter Storm Warning and the Winter Storm Watch fying.

    https://www.weather.gov/box/

  41. Thank you, TK.

    Sounds like you’re trimming the snow hedges a bit.

    The Dutch mets have considerably trimmed their snow forecast, too. https://knmi.nl/waarschuwingen

    I realize the website is in Dutch, but you’ll see “10 cm” in the forecast. That’s about 4 inches, which in the Netherlands is a substantial amount. Parts of Limburg may get 15 cm. Luxembourg will do very well, with upwards of a foot of snow.

    Needless to say, the Dutch are very excited about the prospect of snow. But, they’re equally happy about the prospect of a 5 day period of below freezing weather. Why? Because they might be able to get out their skates by Wednesday or Thursday and start skating the canals. I’ve done it. It’s fabulous.

    Mark, you’re right about the active pattern here. Looks like a parade of small snow events coming our way.

    1. This is the same warning I read 6 hours ago. Maybe they’re revise this evening.

      By the way, loved seeing the pictures of your daughter in 1978 in the snow, and your wife’s cousin in Charlestown. That’s a classic Charlestown picture with the Bunker Hill Monument in the background.

    2. Wow, they are going bust hard with that forecast. The text of those warnings indicates 5-8″ of snow. There is currently not one model left showing those amounts outside of RI and SE MA.

      1. Agree! Unless they know something that TK and JMA doesn’t know and I would find that hard to believe!!!!!!

        1. The NWS forecast discussion has not been updated yet since this AM. Very interested to see the afternoon update and their justification for this.

  44. I am surprised Boston got upgraded to a winter storm warning. I thought they would have a winter weather advisory.

    1. Yes, I’d be happy if we could pull 3-4″ out of this….nice refresher. And if the models are correct, we keep refreshing every 2-3 days for the foreseeable future. Tuesday looking increasingly likely for another advisory type event across most of the area.

  47. As far as I can tell, the NWS is relying nearly 100% on that high res model blend they tweeted about earlier. Good for them to sticking to their guns on that one. If they hit it and we all get fried, how will that look? 😉

      1. I look at it this way…
        If this forecast burned me, I’d learn something from it. I would try to take note of every little detail of this pattern and why 90% of the guidance blew it less than 24 hours out. We’ve seen that happen before.

        I don’t think this is going to be one of those times, but apparently they do.

  49. Their text detail forecast for Boston is 5-10″
    Beware of the snowbank measurement snowfall reports tomorrow.

  50. Updated discussion from NWS Upton probably gives clues as to what Norton is thinking:

    Model Overview…The models agree overall on the evolution and track
    as mentioned above. However, the differences arise in the liquid
    equivalent amounts and therefore snowfall forecast. The NAM12, 3-km
    NAM, HREF, and SREF remain the most aggressive with regards to
    liquid equivalent amounts and the overall extent of the higher
    amounts reaching west of the NYC metro/coast. It is noted that the
    SREF can be contaminated with rain due to the usual over amplified
    ARW members and have therefore examined the NMB members. The global
    models, (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, UKMET, GEFS mean, ECMWF EPS mean) all are
    lower with liquid equivalent amounts and therefore lower on the
    snowfall from about the NYC metro on NW (<0.50 in). Most of the
    guidance agrees that Long Island, especially Suffolk County, and
    southeast Connecticut will see the higher liquid equivalent amounts
    (0.50-0.80 in). One concern with the global models is that they are
    not handling the banding potential well and are over smoothing the
    liquid equivalent amounts. The GFS shows excellent lift in the
    dendritic growth zone (-12C to -18C) even as far north as the Lower
    Hudson Valley where current forecast liquid amounts are lower.
    Frontogenesis on the NW side or colder side of the middle level low
    is impressive for about a 3-6 hour period from late morning into the
    afternoon across much of the region. The mesoscale models agree with
    this lift, but are stronger in magnitude and therefore higher in
    snowfall/banding potential. Another limitation in the global models
    is the handling of the coupling upper jet structure aloft and the
    jets amplification, which impacts the extent of the precipitation
    shield. The temperature profile for interior locations is cold and
    there is indication of significant ice saturation and less
    super cooled water (riming), which supports potential of higher
    ratio snowfall. Profiles even closer to the coast indicate
    potential for higher ratio snow in the afternoon with some of
    the banding. These factors lend some credibility to higher
    snowfall amounts. Past cases have shown that global models can
    underdo the lift associated with these jet streaks. The 12z HREF
    indicates potential for 1" per hour rates across much of the
    region late morning into the afternoon and possible 2" per hour
    rates on eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut, with
    widespread 6-8 inches across the entire area with 8 to 10 inches
    on eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut on the
    ensemble probability-matched mean.

  52. So the NWS “expected” amount is basically 6-12 everywhere except trending down to <1 inch on Outer Cape Cod. They are trending closer and closer to the storm we had on Tuesday! 😉 Give them 2 more cycles and we'll be seeing 18-24 inch bands on their snowfall map. 😉

    I read the discussion ... I think it borders on over analysis and I still think they are way too high for most of the region. I have to admit I was not expecting them to change the snowfall map very much, but I NEVER EVER would have guessed they'd actually increase the totals. They are either going to look like forecasting superheroes or the Justice League watchtower is gonna go down in flames....

    We'll know in about 24 hours.

    2. TK where are you seeing the updated discussion from Norton? The discussion about tomorrow I am seeing is still from noon.

    3. Well intended, but trying too hard.

      18z NAM and 3k NAM have 0.25 at ORH which is under a winter storm warning. 30:1ratios maybe to get there?

      I ask you this. If all of the dynamics they suggest support their forecast were a counter argument to high accumulations, yet the NAMs were spitting out high QPF, would they ignore the NAMs and go with their gymnastics to lower amounts instead?

  53. It’s pretty obvious that NWS Gray doesn’t agree with NWS Norton, or the 6+ inch snow contour just happens to magically follow the exact border of NH & MA, given the Winter Storm Warning suddenly is a Winter Weather Advisory as soon as you cross the border. 😉

    1. These adjacent offices supposedly collaborate with each other on their snow forecasts and watch issuances. It’s clear they did talk to Upton at least as their snow map blends in well with Norton’s and is equally aggressive.

      1. There isn’t. It’s 6+ for WSW both Gray & Norton regions. It goes to 7+ for the Caribou region as well as the Albany, Binghampton, & Buffalo regions.

  54. I am done for the day. I have a birthday dinner to get ready for my wife.

    Be well and enjoy the weather. We can’t control it, we can only live with it.

    Check in with you all tomorrow, unless you post 500 times again…

    2. Enjoy. There will only be 500 posts if things materialize, but I may contribute 50 posts myself in anticipation. 🙂

  55. I also noticed, for my local area, the NWS has the snow lasting 2 to 4 hours longer than any guidance, therefore adding another 2 inches to the accumulation. This one really has me scratching my head. I don’t think I’ve encountered a forecast that is so against so much of the guidance THIS close to an event. I’m curious as to how are TV media mets interpret all this.

  57. I think the NWS does well explaining their rational. I like that they explain why they think it will happen. Good for them.

    1. I said the same thing. I’m not even coming close to putting them down for doing their job. I just happen to highly disagree with their forecast this time. That’s not typical for me. I think I’ve been outside their camp on only 2 events so far this season.

    1. Obviously 25 came to my blog and copied my new updated #’s. 😉 KIDDING!!! They are pretty much identical. I think 5’s 6-9 area is far too large and I think the NWS gets blown not only out of the water but right out of the atmosphere. 😉

  59. OK here is the updated discussion from NWS Norton. They did not really discuss why their forecast diverges from pretty much every model at this point.

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    Some excerpts:

    Dynamics couldn`t be more perfect for heavy snow where mixing is
    not an issue. Omega is maximized in the -12 to -18C Dendritic
    Growth Zone (as low as -10C for the coastal area due to
    abundance of salt nuclei) along with 700-925mb speed/directional
    convergence will result in a 3 to 4 hour window of impressive
    frontogenesis. This is a strong signal for convective snow and
    where mixing is not an issue, could easily see 2 to maybe even 3
    inches per hour snowfall rate. So even giving the progressive
    nature of the system, snow could easily pile up and accumulate 7
    to 10 inches in the most persistent mesoscale bands.

    And this:

    I did lower the snow totals over the
    immediate Boston area and much of the Eastern MA coast. With the
    winds initially out of the E and NE during precip onset, snow
    ratios will be in the 5-7:1 range initially but gradually
    increase to around 10:1 as winds back to the N by 20-21z. As for
    the interior, higher SLRs are expected generally 12-15:1. QPF
    wise, expect generally 0.3 to 0.5 inches west of Worcester and
    0.5 to 1 inch over SE MA and RI. Overall, highest snowfall
    totals should be from NE CT to Worcester to Metrowest Boston in
    the order of 6 to 9 inches where the mesoscale banding coincides
    with a thermal profile that minimizes mixing.

    1. Dynamics couldn’t be more perfect for heavy snow? Highest totals from NE CT to Worcester to Metro West? Really?

      Scratching my head…

                2. It’s really not much more then others are forecasting . If you saw his report he said he was going with the lower ends with new guidance

      1. Yep, pretty consistent with what the Euro op is showing. Several advisory to low end warning type events every 2-4 days. Very fast progressive flow but a nice storm track near or just southeast of us.

  63. I’ve been trying really hard lately not to make fun of news anchors etc… But I’m sorry I can’t resist this one, and I think you will see why.

    Channel 5 news anchor when introducing the weather segment…

    “If the Pats were playing in the super bowl tomorrow they would be playing it in a snowstorm.” Gee, that cold air and storm track would have to be really suppressed to the south for a snowstorm at the super bowl tomorrow……

    #SuperBowlNotHostedByNewEngland

    1. It does, unfortunately it looks like the bulk of the heavier stuff is going to slide ENE and to the south of us as opposed to more northeasterly.

    1. Ew gross why would anyone look at a radar or nowcast on a site dedicated to weather? We should just look out the window in the morning and see if the leaves are turning in or if the crows are flying.

  70. Looking at at current conditions of the storm and matching them up with guidance, seems a bit more precipitation than what the early 18z suits were showing.

      1. I probably wouldn’t make any changes to the forecast based on the 0z model suite thus far. Not much change from 18z so far except the 3km NAM which has been erratic to say the least.

    2. I do recall the NWS forecaster mentioning in the afternoon discussion something about our area being under the favorable jet stream quadrant (max) for lift.

      Perhaps this is enough to provide lift well northwest of the wave´s track and that´s what some of these model runs (that have projected generous amounts fairly far N and W) have been picking up on ????

  78. In my opinion though, this is a wave coming up the coast.

    Its not a fully mature low with a comma head, etc.

    If it over-achieves to the more ambitious model runs, it will over-achieve to those numbers. Its not going to overachieve to 12+

    So, in that sense, you don´t have to be uncertain as to getting 1 or 20¨

    Probably uncertain in the 3-8 inch range.

  83. I’ve said it a thousand times: I do not envy being a meteorologist in New England – especially in these times.

  88. Sarah W. (Ch. 4) has now placed Boston into the 4-8”+ zone.

    All the tv mets keep mentioning up to 2”+/hr rates for the afternoon.

    It really appears now that this event will be the real deal in terms of snow.

    1. Philip I don’t know what’s going on . I’m still seeing high numbers , wankum says focus on lower number . Models have no clue it’s going to come down to day of watching radar.

    2. Depends on what you mean by real deal. Just because one station has 4-8 and the NWS has high #’s doesn’t mean those are the #’s that are going to be right for everybody. I’m sticking with my #’s. Still the real deal, but a much smaller version of it. 😉

  89. Chris Gloniger of NBC was talking about the threat on Tuesday and a threat for Thurs/Fri (with no emphasis on any severity). He also spoke on the ocean temps and how it’s difficult with climate change to forecast for the coast.

    1. It’s always been difficult to forecast coastal weather. any change in climate really doesn’t have anything to do with it in my opinion. You still have to adjust for coastal differences. We just happened to have a warm bubble of water off the New England coast in the current ocean circulation pattern. It’s really no different than above normal or below normal water temperatures in any part of any ocean. You have to look at the large scale circulation. The warm anomaly was highlighted by the storm earlier in the week with the coastal rain and the extremely sharp snowfall gradient. but this is certainly not the first time that something like this has happened. I remember growing up learning about the weather as a kid and hearing about the coastal curse where it always changes to rain. Of course that’s not always the case but people tend to speak in more absolute terms than they need to.

  90. NWS finally backed off. Winter storm warning for our area replaced by Winter weather advisory. Winter storm warning remains for SE MA.

    NAMS still robust with 7-9 inches for Boston. Alll others 2-3 inches for Boston.

    We shall see. I am about to snooze for a few hours, I hope.

  92. YIKES!!!

    Logan is already up to 34 with EAST wind.

    Down the coast:

    Marshfield 39
    P-town 37
    Hyannis 39

    30 here in JP

  95. New weather post…

    Cautions: Leaning to lower & middle side of each range.
    Much of the coastal plain INCLUDING Boston probably will start as a mix or rain. That won’t be a surprise.

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