Sunday February 7 2021 Forecast (8:06AM)

487 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

Two jet streams throw energy at us today. The first will be a southern stream low pressure area that will race northeastward, passing southeast of New England, throwing a shield of precipitation across the region from later this morning to early this evening, arriving from southwest to northeast as snow for most areas but mix or rain in the coastal plain due to marginal temperatures, then end up as mainly snow for all, with a light to moderate accumulation, and a pocket of heavier accumulation over interior southeastern MA, before exiting from west to east between 6 and 8 p.m. (may linger a bit longer in far eastern areas). As this feature exits, a cold front associated with energy in the northern jet stream may help create a brief snow shower or even a snow squall, especially west and north of Boston, as it moves through the region later in the evening. After this, a shot of windy, colder weather will follow for Monday, but as high pressure moves toward the region, the wind will start to relax by later Monday, and high clouds will already be streaming in ahead of the next system coming along in the jet stream which will bring a minor snow/mix/rain event to the region on Tuesday. After this, fair weather returns for midweek. Some of the guidance has another system moving in quickly, about next Thursday, but at the moment I believe that may be too quick on the guidance and will go with a slower timing, holding that system off through the middle of the week.

TODAY: Overcast. Snow arrives southwest to northeast late morning-midday, starting as rain in the coastal plain of MA especially Cape Cod before changing to snow there, steadiest through the afternoon, heaviest over eastern CT, RI & southeastern MA. Highs 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH morning, NE 10-20 MPH afternoon except 15-25 MPH with a few higher gusts over southeastern MA.

TONIGHT: Cloudy early evening with snow ending west to east by 8 or 9 p.m. after accumulating 1-3 inches across central and northeastern MA and southern NH, 3-5 inches in the Boston-Providence region southeastward, except pockets of 5-8 inches mainly interior southeastern MA, RI, and eastern CT. Variably cloudy late evening with a passing snow shower or snow squall possible mainly in areas north and west of Boston. Clearing overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH morning, W 5-15 MPH afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 12-19. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow except snow may change to rain South Coast. Highs 30-35 southern NH and northern MA, 35-40 southern MA & RI. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Watch for black ice formation! Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Active pattern with one or two low pressure systems impacting the region during this period with snow/mix/rain, favoring February 12 & 15, but low confidence on the timing of the second threat.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

Additional opportunities for wintry weather events near the border of very cold air north and milder air to the south, and in the general storm track path. Don’t misread this as a forecast of snowstorm after snowstorm. There is far too much uncertainty out this far to make a confident call.

487 thoughts on “Sunday February 7 2021 Forecast (8:06AM)”

  2. Cautions: Leaning to lower & middle side of each range.
    Much of the coastal plain INCLUDING Boston probably will start as a mix or rain. That won’t be a surprise.

  5. Thanks, TK. Leaning toward lower numbers in the range is pretty much what I have heard all Mets say. It is a good reminder, I think, to not just focus on the top number.

    1. Absolutely. In fact sometimes having the right ranges posted you can actually lower your forecast a little by just telling the reader, listener, or viewer to focus lower rather than higher. That’s pretty much what I did here today. 🙂 Stellar handling of this by our local market given the typical pressures they face. I think we are the best in the country – maybe a little bias there. 😉

    1. Thanks. They all look quite reasonable. I’m not in the mood to shovel much after the game. The snow will be heavy in weight enough as it is.

  7. Good morning. The overnight discussion from Norton was written by Hayden Frank who has been there for 15 years Walt Drag took under his wing when he first started.

    The afternoon discussion was written by a young man whose social media profile says winter weather enthusiast. That’s not a joke ….

    TK-as usual you are a credit to everyone who has worked in this field and a service to all who consume weather information.

    1. Hayden Frank is an excellent met & writer! I’m a big fan of his work and dedication to the science. He’s spoken at several of the SNE weather conferences and a reminder of why I think overall BOX is still the best office in the country. Again a little biased perhaps. 😉

      And thank you for your kind words. 🙂 Looking forward to any other thoughts you may have about this or upcoming systems.

  9. Thanks TK!

    Rules for model watching:

    1. Discount the NAM
    2. Remember rule #1

    I read this morning’s NWS Discussion and it was a good read at that.

  10. Thanks TK
    Waiting for the flakes to start flying and looks like I will be able to have all the shoveling done prior to kickoff.
    Chiefs 34
    Bucs 31

  11. Looking at the radar, a VERY sharp snow/rain line stretching down the coast to our south with NO mix whatsoever in between. I don’t recall ever seeing that type of radar setup before without at least a narrow strip of “pink” (mix) if you will.

    Does that have implications necessarily for us this afternoon?

      1. The atmosphere is saturating Philip. I just flipped on the weather channel the snow is coming down at a good clip in NYC right now.

  13. So, is there an actual definition of a Nor’Easter? The reason for asking is Channel 5 called todays storm a Nor’Easter (or, FEBRUARY NOR’EASTER, as it were). I would assume it would have something to do with high winds and a certain precipitation over a timeline, but that’s the reason for my ask. Thanks!

  14. Thank you, TK!

    Will NYC once again get more snow than Boston? Certainly could happen.

    The low countries got their snowstorm, as well as many other areas of Western Europe. Gale force winds are producing frigid wind chills. And, it looks like cities such as Amsterdam that are unaccustomed to having many subfreezing days are entering a long period of cold. Low to mid 20s during the day and low teens at night for the next 6-8 days and perhaps longer (most unusual in Amsterdam; though it does happen once every 10 years). I experienced this 3 times when I lived there. The one nice thing is that once the cold sets in it really does stick around for a while (stationary areas of strong high pressure). No yo-yoing like you often get here. It seems our areas of high pressure are always on the move.

  15. Even though this will not be a big powerful storm system,
    there still appears to be another fakata coastal front.

  16. Vicki,

    I finished watch both seasons 12 and 13 of Heartland.
    Very entertaining.

    Spoiler alert for Season 14.

    1. Wow. And I thought I’d made progress. I watched 12 in about two days but slowed down for 13. I didn’t want it to end. My granddaughter has the episodes of 14 that have been filmed on one of her devices. I haven’t decided If I will watch when I finish 13 or If I’ll wait for the whole season. If you want me to send the links, just say the word and I’ll ask Adison.

  17. TK – re your above question. Not much to add to today. I have been pretty clear on my thoughts with this fun little event. You got it!

    Subsequent systems – let’s see how it evolves but I see delayed cold and probably when it does arrive modified cold and for precip I might kick anything significant down the road to the Valentine’s Day time period and / or beyond.

  19. Thanks TK !

    I was going to mention seeing who had written the most recent discussions at NWS (Hayden Frank), but I see that you and JMA discussed above. 🙂

    1. Does NOT bode well for accumulating snow at the coast. Not saying there won’t be snow and the temp won’t drop – both things will happen. But, because this is a short-lived event, without the initial burst accumulating it makes it that much more difficult for snow to pile up before this thing hauls out of here.

      I think trimming the coastal amounts down even more makes sense, similar to the storm early this week.

      1. yes and no. True, will be very wet at coast, even likely starting as rain or mix., however, the difference this time will be much less wind coming in from the water Should allow temp to drop more to 32 or 31 instead of 33 or 34 last time.

  21. First flakes starting where I am.
    For the snowfall standings
    NYC 27.7 inches
    BOS 24.3 inches
    Will NYC widen their lead or will Boston close the gap???

    1. Given that Boston will likely start as rain/mix and NYC already starting as snow, my bet is NYC will continue to lead. I still find it interesting that a NE wind is a land breeze there. Oh well. 😉

      1. 2 inches in Boston to 3 inches in Boston.
        That is actually more than slight as it is a 50% increase. 🙂

  23. Logan 37
    Marshfield 41
    Plymouth 41
    Falmouth 41
    Hyannis 41
    Provincetown 41

    37 here in JP as well.

    I have found that 36/37 is the cut off. 36 will often produce snow, while 37 more often produces rain. Yes, this is a generality as there are always exceptions. I am hoping today is an exception and that colder air aloft and some rapid increase i precip intensity will produce snow or at the very least allow
    it to flip to snow very quickly.

    Stronger yellow echoes beginning to show up on radar, indicating that precipitation intensity is picking up rapidly

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?num=40&type=N0R&mapx=400&mapy=240&brand=wui&delay=15&frame=0&scale=1&transx=0&transy=0&severe=0&smooth=0&centerx=400&centery=240&station=BOX&rainsnow=0&lightning=1&noclutter=0&showlabels=1&showstorms=0&rand=26878685

    1. I remember Pete mentioning that it can snow as high as 45. Don’t know under what specific circumstances though.

      1. Good morning. I see everyone is a bundle of joy this morning on the blog 🙂

        Hope everyone enjoys whatever we get today!!

  25. I share this real time observation. On radar there is 35 dbz precipitation over my head. Not a single flake has yet to make it to the ground. It will, but that impacts model snowfall accumulations, especially in short duration events.

      1. It’s now passed to my north into southern Franklin county. But that entire band in of 25-35 dbz precip that has moved into eastern Hamlden Hampshire and Franklin county has produced no snow to the ground.

  30. Excerpt from NWS discussion:

    2) Snow Accumulations/Headlines…

    The snow accumulations still remain quite difficult for a near
    term forecast given a few variables in play that we will
    discuss. The first issue is the initial warm boundary layer
    across eastern MA/RI will waste a bit of the QPF on the front
    end even if Ptype is in the form of snow. Also, there continues
    to be uncertainty in the northwest extent of the heavier QPF.

    Link to whole discussion

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

  39. From Ryan Hanrahan
    Morning weather balloon launch on Long Island shows a lot of dry air in the lowest 5,000 ft of the atmosphere. Will take a little bit to saturate the low levels but it’ll happen (and the atmosphere will cool as well).

  40. Yesterday, Matt Noyes commented on the low level dry air which in his mind would curb some of the projected higher snow totals.

  41. Yesterday, Matt Noyes commented on the low level dry air which in his mind would curb some of the projected higher snow totals.

    1. 🙂 🙂 🙂 Just a matter of minutes before it makes it here.
      20 min or so???

      I am sitting at 38 with a dp of 30. Still hopeful it will start as snow, but ready for it to start as rain or mix. We shall see.

  44. Thanks, TK.

    Just started to flurry in Taunton in the last five minutes.

    Reading this great blog about trying to figure out this storm in the last few days has been watching a game show.

    “Let’s spin the wheel!” 🙂

    It must be driving some of you crazy. Looking forward to seeing how this one plays out. It seems that the jackpot may be down in this area.

    Hayden Frank and Walt Drag’s names appeared here earlier. I loved reading Walt’s prose (and sense of humor!) on the NWS discussion page, especially in the days before NOAA made each NWS websites uniform.

    I’d like to add Rob Carolan’s name to Hayden and Walt’s names. I have said before that I think Rob is an excellent forecaster, broadcaster, teacher with a great style and sense of humor.

    On Friday during the 6:50 cast on Fall River’s WSAR, frustrated by the poor job of the long-range winter weather models, Rob predicted 3″ from Tiverton, RI to 6″ in New Bedford. He added,

    “Or, it could be as much as 18″ to 24″. Who the hell knows?”

    🙂 🙂 🙂

    Enjoy the storm and the game!

    3. Rob C. is TOP NOTCH as is his entire outfit in Nashua NH. I worked with most of the people who work there at one point or another at a different place before. I know many of them very well.

      1. Me too. Oh wait, that’s where I work now! In fact, if you’re listening to WSAR today Captain, you’ll hear me doing the forecast.

        1. I’m all over the place…No I live in the Needham area. I’m here for a quick appointment today. Do you Ace?

          1. I was born in Needham. Lived on Manning street about even with the High School.

            One of my favorite fishing spots is still in Needham.

    1. Love it!

      I am torn. I would like to see Mahomes crush Tampa Bay, but at the same time, I would like to see Brady win his 7th ring. So there you have it.

  49. Thanks TK.

    Snowing lightly here in Coventry CT and 33F. Radar shows a heavy band overhead so this is clearly battling some dry air at the start.

    Interesting the 12z GFS has ticked up with the snow totals again for our area. I think we should be good for 3 or 4″ here…anything more will be bonus snow 🙂

  52. No sooner than I stopped typing and like a snap of the fingers, it is now snowing moderately here. Deck already has a coating.

  57. The first flakes are falling here in Woburn just before 11 a.m. Radar said it should have been snowing steadily, enough to whiten the ground, but I could count the flakes, almost literally, with the fingers on my hands during the first 5 minutes of this. It’s barely snowing a little more now…..barely. Now I might have to use toes to count. 😛

    Reminder: This is probably going to be under 10:1 ratio for all areas the heaviest snow occurs, so use the short range guidance snowfall maps wisely.

        1. That’s about right for Boston. Maybe more like 5:1 on the South Shore southward for a while, going up later…

  60. Heavy snow now in Coventry CT. I think it is snowing harder now than it did the entire last storm here….lol.

  61. Decent amount of snow coming down in South Sutton. It started about 30-40 minutes ago ..just very light until now. Driveway and walkway starting to coat

  62. arod: There was a slight typo in the username so I fixed that in case you were wondering why your post went to moderation.

    Ian: There was a slight difference in your username from your last post a year ago, so I approved that, and welcome back!

  63. 12z NAM back to earth with its snowfall forecast (again). I have never seen any model, even that one, waiver back and forth so much with a single, SIMPLE event so close to its arrival.

      1. I meant off of some of those widespread over-inflated totals. The 3km has taken over as the better of the 2 heading down the home stretch.

  67. Snow is now borderline moderate in Westwood. Not sure if it’s quite an inch per hour which is why I say borderline; nonetheless, snow is steady and picking up in intensity. Models at least got the onset right.

    1. It was 41 at the Marshfield airport not too long ago. Now down to 37. I think that thermometer has always been 1-2 degrees too high anyway.

      2. Marshfield has been too high for a long time, like so many others. We have such an incorrect representation of temperature in a whole lot of the US now because of these sensors which (the ones that are off) all go 1 to 3 degrees too warm. I know the fixes are ongoing, but meanwhile there are still alot of bad ones in use.

  72. Looking on radar, it “appears” that Boston will just barely make it within the NW edge of the heavier precipitation shield.
    I wonder IF the NAMs might verify????????

    We shall see. In any event it is SNOWING and Snowing hard.
    Let’s see how much we can accumulate before it quits.

    1. However, this initial SNOW is being wasted here as it is too warm. My thermometer is still ready 37, down from 38.
      Should get down to the lower 30s soon at which point it will
      start accumulating rapidly.

      1. Remember those models don’t really know how warm the pavement is, and again the 10:1 ratio factor for the normal snow maps. They just spit out the “textbook” snowfall. Adjustments are almost always necessary.

  73. Radar trends support the above forecast. This & a review of available 12z short range guidance does not prompt me to make any adjustments, other than we MAY see this thing pull out of here a little earlier than some of the guidance has and certainly earlier than the NWS’s timing, in my opinion.

  75. 2.2″ of snow in the LAST HOUR in North Haven.

    Branford reported 3″ already.

    We are on the northern fringes of that very heavy band in CT right now. Would love to nudge it north by about 10 more miles…

    2. Here’s a question related to the Dendritic Growth Zone.

      It’s based on this comment from the NWS that Mark posted just after 5p.m. yesterday: “Omega is maximized in the -12 to -18C Dendritic Growth Zone (as low as -10C for the coastal area due to abundance of salt nuclei)…”

      How does this ‘abundance of salt nuclei’ cause a temperature difference? It keeps things warmer in the Dendritic Growth Zone? Would like to understand the dynamics here.

  77. About 3 more hours for the “peak” snowfall and then we start to see a drop off rather quickly from west to east. Almost all of the accumulation is going to be done by 4PM west, 5PM east.

      1. Well, I hope so. Almost all done by 5PM east, which doesn’t leave a lot of time before kick off, but we’ll see.

  79. I think you are going to see some inflated snow totals where that band has set up shop in an approx. line from Greenwich – North Haven-Colchester-Brooklyn-Northern RI-Brockton-Scituate. Give or take 10 miles on either side of it.

  80. If this thing is going to be off shore, why do we have a SE wind?

    I guess still some influence from system to the North?

    Once this storm gets going off shore South of us, wind should back to ESE,E,ENE,NE and finally NNE

  82. It’s so wet here that it is NOT even accumulating on car roof tops.
    That is pathetic. We’re losing too much of this snow. Repeat of last time?

    Still only 36 here. Needs to get to at least 34 for the accumulation to begin. Logan is at 34?????

  83. Started snowing here about 10:30 went to moderate around 10:45 and at 11:30 flipped back to light. Accumulated on cold surfaces. Most roads only became wet.

  84. Watching the radar and I see that heavy band that Mark mentioned slowly lifting N&W. I like that. I should be under
    that band any moment now.

    2. That band that runs on a diagonal line from metro west Boston to Greenwich CT is key to any accumulations that meet or exceed expectations. The question will be how long it hold together, how far north it can go, how long does it take it to overwhelm warm surface temps near the coast and how much dry air eats as at it?

    1. That measurement looks like total BS. Look at the snow on the ground behind the pile of snow and on the trees. Someone is playing around…

      1. I dont know, it is pretty consistent with the other measurements people have been reporting along the CT shoreline.

        A met in North Haven just reported 4″ as well.

        I am closing in on 2″ here and have been on the northern fringe of that band.

        Ratios with this have been very high. It’s pure fluff out there.

  88. Finally started to accumulate here. Took its sweet time.

    Logan and Norwood now 33. My equipment is still reading 35. It has been pretty accurate, but I think it is a bit high now.

    Looking nice outside.

    1. Looking that way Hadi. Sure is looking that way.
      See below. That banding is expanding and getting more intense.

      1. He never said that. He said it would over achieve forecasted
        snow amounts. Entirely different statement. 🙂

        1. You are right but you said over produce . Let’s see how it plays out . Roads starting to get coatings now .

  90. Heavy band does not appear to weakening. If anything it looks to be expanding nad getting stronger.

    On my radarscope composite display, I see yellow echoes transitioning to orange which means even heavier SNOW.

  91. Snow has picked up here again at noon and it’s starting to stick on the street and driveway.

    Temp has dropped a half-degree to 32.7.

  93. Just observing the snow flakes falling. Some of the largest I have ever seen. Most are 1 1/2 inches in diameter and I just saw one huge one at about 2 1/2 inches! WOW!

    AND even though the snow is Wet, it looks VERY FLUFFY and should accumulate rapidly!

    1. I’m glad you’re getting into what I have been enjoying. Impressive accumulation on existing snow pack.

  96. Wind has changed here. Went from a SE drift to a NE drift. Wind is quite light, but it has changed direction.

  97. Thanks TK.

    That looks like an impressive band from Boston southwestward, right through my hometown in Wrentham. Will see if I can get any reports from home. This storm has been quite a learning experience for me. It looks like the zone of overperforming should be pretty narrow, but this is still some of the best banding we’ve seen all winter.

    We had something similar happen down here where much of New Jersey underperformed this morning (though it has filled in better now), while an FGEN band set up over southeastern PA and produced a rather unexpected 6-8”. Obviously not a blockbuster system but one that has really been a challenge to forecast.

  98. This is a very nice band. I hope that Boston can stay under it.
    We shall see. So far, so good.

    Snow in beginning to accumulate on the street.

  100. Moderate, if not heavy snow last 15 minutes.

    Pavement now accumulating and quickly.

    This is 1 inch or more per hour intensity.

    1. Agree just got home from errands in Hanover. Boy 2 big overtime events I lost this week it sucks . Back tomorrow my knee will probably be on & off pain until I get a knee replacement in 10 years . I’m going to be getting a shot soon from a Canadian pharmacy.

      1. Sorry you lost out on overtime. But, the upcoming pattern may allow for other OT opportunities.

        Hopefully, your knee pain level in the coming years will be tolerable.

  102. Snowing at a moderate clip where I am. Just got back from church and the roads all snow covered. I see no problem reaching the low end of the forecast of 3-6 inches where I am.

    1. You’ll get your wish today:) It’s the best of both worlds: enjoying the sight of snowfall and partaking in a reasonable cleanup.

    2. I just hope we can get a nice fluffy snow (15:1) before the season ends. I want the snow to blow back into my face while shoveling.

  105. I´m just in the southern edge of that nice band from CT to Boston.

    Hope not to end up in that light stuff just to my south.

  106. In order for this to over-achieve forecast amounts, it’s going to need to do something soon. I don’t see much of a chance of any 9 or 10 inch amounts out of this. Not enough time and not enough ratio…

    1. No, but 6 or 7 inch amounts may be realized. Also, I think the ratio is much higher than we think. The snow falling here is fluff, even though it is wet.

    3. Exactly TK. As discussed yesterday 1-3 and 3-5 except that band of 5-7 and where would that set up would be the variable. (Fairness you had 5-8)

      Seeing there were official forecasts for up to 12″ in SNE yesterday evening, I don’t see how this over achieves….

  108. Big fluffy flakes here in Hingham. Definitely already more than the last storm where all we got was rain and slush.

  109. It is really coming down here and piling up in a hurry. Everything is now covered and it is accumulating on the street. On snow surfaces, EASILY an inch+ already.

  110. Franklin, Wrentham, Norfolk,Millis, MEdfield, Norwood, Walpole, Sharon, Foxboro stoughton, Canton, Westwood, Dedham, braintree, quincy and Boston to name a few are
    getting hammered!

  114. Ah crap, it looks like the juicy band is collapsing a little to the SE. I am now at the Northern fringe of it, soon to be out of it.
    So much for over achieving. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  118. Band is losing punch, drifting SE. Boston will be in the 3-5 band.
    Here in Woburn I’m at 0.9, just about to get to 1 inch even. Main roads are wet or minor slush. Side roads have a slushy coating.

  119. I´m looking forward to the next 7 – 10 days weatherwise.

    February, the sun is returning quickly. The Gulf Coast/SE could warm up nicely and the upper midwest could be well below 0F.

    Tremendous north to south temp gradient. Seems like a setup for something quite intense, but not showing on the models. Instead, multiple waves of low pressure, spread a couple days apart.

    1. I’m surprised how little attention the coming cold has gotten. A lot of people in the Plains and Midwest are going to be caught off guard methinks. I’m not saying hype it up, but it’s actually pretty serious cold heading for them.

        1. They used them up about 2 weeks before the actual event, so now it’s yesterday’s news. The mainstream media has moved onto other things, while the actual meteorologists will be tackling the sensible weather now. 🙂

  120. Heavy snow now in Westwood. Easily 2 inches per hour stuff now. Have no idea what the radar scope looks like overhead.

    1. nice …….

      Intensity starting to increase again here. We were heavy, then drifted into that lull area, but apparently are coming out of it again.

    1. Makes sense since they are also sitting underneath the heavy band that isn’t appreciably moving or weakening. Should easily exceed 6 inches in this narrow swath.

  124. Approaching 4″ in Coventry CT with moderate to heavy snow again after a brief let up to light snow. And never really got into the heart of that intense band. Definitely will be many 6″+ reports coming in again from central and southern CT.

    Nice little fluff bomb here with very good ratios!

    1. Mark you have had a real nice 30-40 dbz band over your area for an extended time. You should do real well.

      About 1/3″ here in 3 hours

      1. I think I should be able to pull 5-6″. And I didnt even get into the meat of it (I am in the northern part of town near the Tolland line)

  125. ** Model info only, NOT my forecast **

    European 12z operational basically gives us my forecast ranges today.

    The Tuesday event is a 1-3 inch type snowfall with mix/rain involved to the south.

    The Thursday event is not a Thursday event, but as noted in my discussion, a Friday event, with this model’s idea 3-6 type snowfall.

    The Valentine’s Weekend event as depicted by the model is a 1-3 inch type snowfall event.

      1. So do I. I would rather a series of small events than 2 biggies. The biggies are fun, but small, quick-moving things are very fun for me to forecast & track.

  126. 1:15PM Statement: NWS now has Boston under a WSW for an additional 5-7″ of snow and 1-2″ per hour snow rates this PM

  129. Wow! Ryan Hanrahan just reported a snow ratio of 22:1 at his house in West Hartford.

    Was not expecting a fluff bomb here today, especially with temps hovering around 30F. Must be very cold in the upper levels.

    1. It is crazy light. I’m convinced the flakes are standing on the shoulders of the ones that came before them

    2. A layer of very cold air has revealed itself up there. It’s more about the temps at snow growth level than at the ground.

      I heard somebody recently saying “Well the snow is getting heavier and wetter because the surface temperatures are warning.” That is not really true. Yes, while warmer surface temps will partially melt the snow, or make it “wetter”, it doesn’t change the water content. That only changes if the conditions change where it’s being manufactured. 🙂

  131. GFS 12z operational…

    Today: Is what it is, nothing really more can be “forecast” other than the movement of the banding and heaviest snowfall rates and the tapering off of the precipitation later.

    Tuesday: Minor event, less than the Euro advertises.

    Thursday/Friday: Minor to borderline moderate event.

    Weekend: Mostly minor event.

    Two other potential events advertised by the run around February 18 & 22, neither one major based on this particular run.

    1. Even with all those minor events, still adds up to about two feet of snow in most areas the next two weeks. If it were to verify.

      1. Those seldom verify to model predictions as 90% of the time model snowfall #’s are too high beyond a few days out based on algorithm issues, however Boston will do some building of their seasonal total on their way to what I still think will be slightly above normal for the season.

  132. Northern RI up towards Franklin, Dedham, Stoughton and Quincy getting HAMMERED right now.

    Definitely going to be overachieving with this system in those areas.

  133. Westwood is puking snow. The heavy snow band overhead is actually intensifying. I was not expecting this. If the band holds together, towns therein may actually over achieve. Extremely impressive rates.

        1. Except that they had it over an area that was about 15 times larger than they needed it. 😉

  134. 1.2 inch, moderate snow, main roads combo of wet & slush, Side roads snowcovered in my section of Woburn.

    1. That’s amazing since we are closing in on a half a foot of snow and we aren’t all that far apart. You’re just north of the death band which is making all the difference in the world.

    2. It’s obvious snowing here & definitely sticking but I have not seen a heavy , heavy ban push through ( moderate ) but not extremely heavy .

        1. It’s like our own personal major snowstorm. I wish all of us were in on it. I’m always so jealous when your area gets hit hard and I’m saying , “What snow?”

    2. They did. They just reduced their amounts from the unnecessarily huge area that they had 6-12 inches forecast.

      1. Its ok, we are doing fine, but not under that most intense stuff.

        I´ll take it though, especially cause I don´t have to worry about strong winds.

        1. Agree doing good but definitely have not seen a heavy ban . It’s accumulating fast as well .

  140. 4.2 so far at Bridgeport CT where the shoreline records are kept. Shoreline of CT now over 30 inches of snow so far this year.

    1. Norwalk is up to 6.5″, North Haven 6″ and Branford 5.5″

      Just saw a report from Hastings on Hudson in NY of 8″ with is the highest I have seen thus far.

      1. I saw NYC had 3 inches so far now up to 30.7 inches so far for the season. Let’s see after this if Boston closes the gap or falls a little further behind in the snowfall standings.

  141. We’ve gone from medium flakes to tiny flakes here in Woburn, intensity down a little. Very close to the N edge of the synoptic band. 1.5 inch so far.

    1. If anything, that band has ever so slowly migrated northwestward; perhaps you’ll get in on it before it collapses back down to the southeast.

      1. Never made it. Heading back SE now.
        It’s fine. I forecast about 3 inches of snow for my city. I’ll be near that.

        1. I see that. It’s been wobbling slightly but I do see evidence of a slight overall weakening of the band. Yet, two more hours of this will do damage.

  142. 2.5 inches now in North reading…its not the same snow intensity as those within the band, but at just around 1 inch per hour it’s pretty respectable

    1. I would have stabbed my left eye out by now if I were up there for this one. Nice area in the Pioneer Valley but could never live there as the seasonal snow totals do not meet my allowable mimimal threshold 🙂

      1. Not on my deck. If you look at the snow on either side of the path into the woods that is what is left from the last storm. About 3″ left on the ground from the prior storm.

      1. Son in law just gave up and bought one. It won’t be here till end of the week. We figure that will end all snow 🙂 🙂

      2. Typical behavior of models is to over-inflate snowfall going out, so while the general pattern is there, these amounts probably will not be fully realized. But the take-away is that there are more opportunities upcoming. My March pattern is indeed here early……………hahahahaha!

        1. 20″ over 4 storms is not out of the question to achieve though with 4 light to moderate snow events averaging 3-5″/event. Wouldn’t surprise me if at least one of the systems ends up bigger than modeled as well.

          1. Definitely not out of the question. If it happens though it would probably not be as widespread as you see on the map there.

  149. I think that band is going to get one more shot of energy just south and southeast of Boston in the next hour before it starts to weaken and pull east. Looks like a little “mid level ripple” coming up from the south southwest…. let’s see what happens between now & 3:30PM.

  150. Arod –

    Just saw a report of 2″ in the last 30 minutes in Westwood and 6.5″ on the ground already.

    Norwood also reporting 4″/hour snows.

  152. Still under the band here in JP. I’ll only be checking in from time to time. I have a rather extensive honey due list to get done
    before the Super Bowl!

    But we have at least 4 inches in JP, probably more and still coming down. We WILL exceed 5 inches with ease and then some to be sure.

    Nice little system

    And btw, as I have been reporting, it is wet snow, BUT it is fluffy.

    2. Nice. Your picture looks a little snowier than mine. You really had a much deeper snowpack on the ground to start with!

  155. The ripple did indeed re-intensify the band. Synoptic banding has to be one of the most fascinating things in the atmosphere.

    Probably approaching 3 inches here so I’ll at LEAST get into the lower end of my 3-6 for The Wu.

    Going to try to wait until as close to 4:30 as possible before shoveling.

  158. TK if you were to hazard a guess when do you think it will lighten up in hingham? Trying to gauge when to shovel. Probably will wait until after the Superbowl.

    1. Let’s say about 2 more hours for the heaviest, 3 for most of the rest, and few flakes may linger after that.

    1. Wow, perhaps my eyes have deceived me. I didn’t think we had that much. I’ll go out and measure when I do my clean up. I certainly believe the 4 inches in one hour report. It snowed just about as hard as I’ve seen it in years and the dendritic growth certainly helped.

  161. The heaviest snow band finally slipped just to my south and east but still snowing a rock over moderately. Should be able to squeeze out another 2-3 inches. I don’t think we will achieve double digit totals but 8 or 9 is not out of the question which falls into the upper limits of the projected range.

  163. Our street was just plowed.

    Still under the Northern Edge of that band. Never have been out of it as far as I can tell. 🙂

  164. Fascinating…
    Jack Sillin
    @JackSillin
    22m

    Nice reminder that it’s the vertical circulation induced by frontogenesis that produces heavy snow, not the 2-D frontogenesis itself.

    The lifting associated with that circulation may or may not actually line up spatially w/the FGEN max, and will produce flakes through a layer.

    John Bagioni
    @FaxAlertWeather
    28m

    Great, if not extreme, example of the best snowfall rates often occurring northwest of the actual core of the banding features; here’s SPC’s depiction of current 700 mb fronto…

    https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1358502444519616512?s=20

    2. This is pretty much what the NWS was describing in their discussion yesterday. Good call, they were just too far NW with the heavier totals.

      1. They certainly were seeing something that we all weren’t albeit in a more localized, narrow swath.

  169. Just when I thought we were getting out of it, snowfall rates have exploded again in Westwood. I’m thinking we will see double digit snow totals after all.

    1. You may pull out a foot. This snow is accumulating extremely fast, even outside the heaviest band. Incredible ratios.

      1. Strangely, the orange has collapsed eastward and are now under the yellow echoes but snowfall rates remain extremely impressive. We will see over a foot here. I’m shocked.

  170. Looked like the elbow of that band was coming up to get me, then it suddenly pulled eastward again. Nope! Light snow here, about 3 inches. Will get an official measurement a bit later. There’s a hint of subsidence forming W of the heaviest band. A new band may be taking over to the E of the current one soon. The tail that was feeding it looks like it’s starting to link up with the other one.

  172. Much smaller flakes now here in JP, but snowing awfully hard. Visibility has to be under 1/4 mile. As Hadi would say, it’s PUKING SNOW!!! I think we are at the 5 or 6 inch mark, if not more. Watching a neighbor shovel and there appears to be 4 or 5 inches in the street that he is shoveling and there was easily 1-2 inches on the snow covered surfaces prior to it accumulating on the street. I will try to sneak a measurement later.

  173. The radar is showing really cool and subtle upslope at Worcester airport. I’ll be fascinated to see if they report a few extra inches more than immediate sorrowing area. I’m at just about the same elevation and not far from there as the crow flies. Can’t wait to see if there’s a difference. Normally I’m within an inch of them or so.

    1. From Boston Metro, down the Pike, and along the I-84 corridor in CT to points SE, I would say yes. Areas to the NW not so much.

    3. It depends on where you are. Only narrow areas are over. Most of it is pretty much right in the expected ranges. With a little left to go of course. I’m most certainly falling in the 3-6 band I had myself in the NW edge of.

  175. Even the most aggressive forecasts did not anticipate 3-4 inch per hour snowfall rates. So this is 2 storms in a row with nearly unforecastable parameters. The insane snowfall gradient of earlier this week, and today’s super-synoptic band via frontogenesis (you know, that rock band that sings about air masses). 😉

    P.S.
    Tom, your heaviest snow is yet to come.

    1. Great Name for a rock band. There are many meteorological terms that would great band names. 🙂 🙂

      My brother had a band that he called Hurricane. Not exactly a spiffy name, but it qualifies.

  176. No let up here. Haven’t been out but well over 6 inches. Must be closing on 8-9 from a quick eye ball.

  177. It has lightened up here as we are out from underneath the
    “death” band. Still snowing decently. Moderate to Heavy Light.
    vis near or just above 1/2 mile.

    Still under dark green on radar, so that should be good for
    3/4 to 1 inch per hour instead of the 2+ inch per hour we
    were getting, so it is Still accumulating.

    But I can see the back edge approaching.

    Hmmm perhaps my eye deceive me, but it “appears” that
    the Southern end of the band in Northern RI, want to rotate almost due North. Wondering IF we get into one last blast
    of heavier snow????

    1. Agree, back edge of accumulating snow is now beyond Springfield and hauling east. Still snowing at least an inch an hour here despite being under the dark green echoes.

  180. This event was insane from a forecasting point of view.

    looking like the NAMs weren’t so far off after all.

    Piss-poor performance of the Global models and the HRRR,
    supposedly a High Resolution short range model was
    atrocious.

    To be a met in New England! Yikes. Probably contributes to hair loss.

    1. It can, but at 53 I still have most of mine (always had a high forehead anyway) and don’t even really have any grey hair yet. It’s light brown / dark blonde. I’m going to take after my mother. She’s 89 and has almost no grey, and she doesn’t use any coloring. 😉 Ah, genetics!

      1. My wife has no gray hair and she is only 9 months younger than me and you have an idea of how old I am. I still have a lot of hair left, but it is might thin it some spots and like spring skiing, a bare spot. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  181. Beautiful snowfall. Postcard nice.

    I’d say closing in on 5-6 inches in Back Bay, but I haven’t measured. Intensity is down considerably, but still snowing.

  184. Ok. I have a food order to pick up at 5:30. I need to go out and shovel as it’s about a one-hour job. I’ll give at least one more partial total and then a final total later.

        1. Excellent, but that did answer my question.

          So, it is something you regularly do from time to time.
          Not particularly a special order for the super bowl. 🙂

  185. 10″ now reported in Hebron, Columbia, and Willimantic CT just to my south. 8″ in Milford.

    Still snowing steadily and accumulating here.

    1. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Mark what is your latest?

      Due to Covid, I am only allowed 1 final measurement when
      it is done. No interim updates allowed. 🙂 🙂

      We only have a limited supply of masks and there are just too many people in the neighborhood to risk going outside needlessly at my age.

    1. 🙂 🙂 🙂 Pretty much back to where they originally were 🙂 🙂 🙂

      I think it is HILARIOUS!!!!!

  187. I didn’t even allow myself to even think about a result like this.

    AMAZING!!!

    LOVE IT!!

    This is going to put me at about 37 inches on the year. Well on the way to an above average snow year.

    1. Just measured. 7 inches and still snowing. Wow!

      I’m at 32 inches for the year, headed for an above average season, especially if the train of snow events continues.

  188. This system looks like it is making the turn and headed more
    Northward or NNE at this time. Echos to the South are
    heading more N to NNE, instead of ENE to NE.

    Looks like we are going to get clipped with one last batch
    of heavier snow.

    Vis now about 3/4 mile. Still accumulating snow, just not at the insane rate we had before. That may tick up shortly.

    2. It was an insane rate for about 90 minutes. Hadn’t seen that in a long time. Arod put it well: “Puking snow.” It’s like God has a terrible bout of acid reflux.

  189. Tom is about to get swallowed up by a modified version of that heavy snow band. Looks like one final spoke of briefly heavy snow wants to move up from the southwest.

  192. Never would’ve imagined rates like this today. Awful forecasting on my part, totally cool meteorologically, and in terms of the banding, one of the most impressive SNE snow events I can recall.

    2. I don’t know how anyone could forecast this! Not just the banding, but the insane Arctic like snow ratios….

  193. Looks like we got briefly clipped by the NNE moving portion of band. Now back to dark green. Still snowing at about 1 inch
    per hour. Still adding to the total. We may reach double digits. Not sure, but a possibility.

  194. Puking snow has arrived in Marshfield.

    Huge flakes.

    Probably have 3-4 inches of cement. If you squeeze some in your hand, a water fall commences and the resulting snowball can put a dent in a brick wall.

  196. 4 inches (just checked right now) in Hingham where I am. Never seen snow so fluffy for so long produce only four inches but that just means I’m in for heavy shoveling.

  202. I came here to read the board because for me the three best things in the world are new babies, soft puppies, and this group here when a storm unexpectedly overachieves.

    Your completely unfettered joy at getting hit with a potent band or your gargantuan levels of outrage at missing out (I’m still chuckling at the “I’d stab my eye out” comment somewhere above – wasn’t posted by JpDave but right from his playbook) might be the reason I end up never leaving Mass.

    Sorry I never have anything actually substantive to contribute (as I clearly lack the ability to absorb this science) – but my god I love lurking here and reading!! Happy final hour(s) everybody!

  207. Not a huge amount of snow, but I can say this: the winter weather advisory for Eastern Essex County was (is?) warranted. Just had a friend spin out twice, coming within inches of a seawall due to slippery road conditions. And these are not giant hills!

    Roads are plowed but the base coat of white is pure grease under the tires.

          1. I’m actually pretty good with it. Totally rooting for them. I put all of this on bellichick being dink.

  208. The bottom line is that win, lose, or draw, Brady has NOTHING to prove. He is the best of the best and has easily taken his rightful place among the all time greats.

  212. Post-storm…

    What I got right: Start time, end time, snowfall amounts north of the synoptic banding area and most of the South Coast region.
    What I got wrong: Ratio and accumulation in the banding area, as well as the location of the max snowfall. 5-8 forecast, 8-12+ top amounts. Ratio being higher and rate being greater were the reasons. Best I can tell, the air lifting near the 700mb frontogenesis region found itself in a much colder layer hence less water needed to make more flakes.

    You can forecast for decades yet you’ll always learn something. And sometimes you’ll forget some of those lessons only to have to relearn them. But I’m proud of putting in the effort using real meteorology versus just picking what I want to happen and making that my forecast. I’ll never, ever do that. 🙂 As I said before, the only thing I want to happen is to “make the best forecast I can make and control only what I can control” (stolen from Harvey Leonard, who said that way back in the 1980s).

    I’m enjoying the game now, and recovering from a migraine with visual aura, but a bit later I’lll take a look ahead at the upcoming winter storm chances and give a little update here in the comments, then expand on that tomorrow morning. 🙂

    Great job by all the contributing mets here on this blog! And a shout out to the NWS & Boston media for doing great on a very tough forecast. What a week to be a forecaster. To quote one of my co-workers: “The fun never stops…”

    1. As always Tk your way of forecasting is the way to go . I’ve leaned a lot here & so proud to be part of a phenomenal group with so many nice people . Go Brady. I missed the first TD we were shoveling but I’m watching now .

      1. I’m rooting for no snow next Sunday that would keep me at work as my wife & I have an important appointment Monday morning.

  213. So interesting living down here on the ocean south of Boston ….

    the temp has come up a 1F to maybe even 2F the last couple hrs as the north wind has picked up. You can see this at Boston Harbor Buoy, as the temp during snow was 33.8F to 34.1F and now, its slightly above 35F.

    The snow is settling. We probably had 5 inches, but if it was possible to compact, it has down to about 3.5 inches.

  215. 12z ECMWF total run (through 240 hours) snowfall at 10:1 for Boston: 20 inches.
    12z GFS total run (through 384 hours) snowfall at 10:1 for Boston: 20 inches.

    Well, they get to the same place, but one does it 144 hours sooner. 😉

    1. TK thanks for the explanation on the ratios. I was wondering. These storms were very tough to forecast and so unusual and I commend all of you for doing a great job. Those type of bands don’t usually end up south of Boston 🙂 and are usually northwest and west of here.

      1. We’ll often see banding anywhere from near I-95 through I-495 and westward and northward from there for a “typical” low pressure track. The structure of this particular storm was a little different, a little smaller scale, even though its center tracked close to where a lot of our classics do.

        Going into this I simply underestimated the ability of the mid level frontogensis to generate snowfall, and I missed the colder air upstairs. Very much over-forecast the temps up there. But in all honesty, I feel good with how it turned out in all other areas other than the “jackpot zone”. Very often we see a jackpot zone or a snow hole, and most of the time it has at least some element of surprise in it.

    1. Norfolk County is what did me in the most. Everything else verified or was only an inch or two too low in the top # areas. I’ll take it considering we witnessed the super-synoptic band. Who would ever have the guts to forecast 4 inch per hour snowfall rates? HAHAHA! The same person who would have forecast an 18.5 inch snowfall gradient over 12 miles in Essex County in the storm before it. 😉

        1. I absolutely love it. There are harder places to forecast, but this place is my favorite. And I have forecast a lot of places, a lot of states, countries, and continents, and oceans to boot. Just love New England.

          1. These coastal storms are where it really gets fun….rain/snow lines, coastal fronts, banding, etc. Love the snow, but tracking these things is half the fun.

            Forecasting in the West has got to be a challenge as well with all those poorly sampled storms coming in off the Pacific.

  220. I thought I was maybe onto the wrong thing putting snow showers in the forecast N & W of Boston for tonight with the northern energy. Well, we just had a snow shower come through the NW ‘burbs during the last half hour. No accumulation, just small flakes in the air. Forecast verified. Small victories. It wasn’t in any other forecast that I saw. 😉

  221. That arctic air on this side of the hemisphere continues to build.

    Barrow, AK´s current pressure is 1056 mb or 31.18 in !!!!!!!

    Temp: -28F, dp: -34F. The wind is not calm, SE at 5 mph, for a windchill of -43F.

    1. Still kind of surprised we’re not hearing more about the air coming down, but we will hear about it once it gets into the west central US………………….. A lot of places are going to be colder than they have been in a long time.

    1. Ch 4 & 7.
      So with Ch 5’s map, what is the point of having a 1-3 area and a 2-3 area? It’s pretty redundant, yes? Just go 1-3 / 3-6 on that map.

  223. Also re superbowl – Tom Brady is who got me into watching sports. Never had any interest prior. The 2001 season got me obsessed with football. When the Patriots let him go I officially became a Tampa Bay fan. Bought a championship hat immediately after the game and had so much confidence in them I bought a Tampa Bay superbowl facemask that will finally be delivered tomorrow.

    1. I wouldn’t count out TB-12 to compete in the next SB. He may be the only QB that can win back-to-back. We will see.

  224. I was informed that Uranium City, Saskatchewan, tied its all time record low temperature of -56F. BRR!

  225. I arrived home to fluffy snow, easy peasy to move. A very pleasant surprise. I got started and shoveled as much as I could as it was still steadily falling, then I went inside, had dinner while watching the game. When the game was well in hand in the 4th quarter, I went back outside and finished up, then spread some ice melt.

    How did the fluffy snow occur with temps on either side of 32F? 🙂

    1. Same reason I gave the other day. It’s about the temperature where the snow forms, not the air that it falls into. It was far colder up there than I thought it was going to be, and that’s why I blew the ratios. Thankfully it didn’t make my numbers bust everywhere, just mostly in the heavier banding zones.

      1. Which month (other than March) did you expect to be active? Or did you expect both January and February to be pretty much duds needing one heck of a March blockbuster to get to normal?

        1. My original idea was that after a snowier than normal December we’d have a period of active weather as we transitioned toward a pattern that featured a SE ridge arriving gradually during January, peaking in February, then breaking down and allowing the cold to pour out of Canada by late winter especially the first half of March, at which time we’d see another active pattern between that cold & the lingering SE mildness. The problem with that forecast is the ridge did not take hold (at least so far, with no sign of it either) and so the action I expected later February into March was able to take place much, much sooner.

  228. Trying to get my daughter to school on time this morning.

    Struggling to get the snow off the car, frozen solid. Gonna let the car heat up and see if that will loosen the bottom layer.

    Almost can stand on the snow without falling through.

    Good times 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  229. Good morning.

    What a picturesque scene out there this morning.

    7 5 inches at my house, which fit nicely into snow maps I saw. We got into the edge of the band, but didn’t get the killer rates For a 4 hour period, we saw perhaps 1 1/2 inches per hour and a lower rate the rest of the time to get to that total. Never got the 3-4 inch per hour rates.

    Stand at 37 25 inches on the season.

    No complaints here as that was a pleasant surprise. There certainly was a jack pot area to the SW of here.

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