Monday February 8 2021 Forecast (7:52AM)

155 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

High pressure approaches today behind our departed winter storm. The air flow between the two will result in a cold day with a gusty breeze but with plenty of sun. The active pattern we are in sends the next low pressure system our way for Tuesday, and this system, while not very strong, will send its center passing just south of the region and a shield of snow moving across our area, with minor to borderline moderate snowfall accumulation during the day and early evening, though air just mild enough may allow rain to be involved near the South Coast. High pressure builds back in behind this for Wednesday, which will be chilly and dry. The next low pressure area makes a run at the region later in the week. Early indications are that this system may be a little further south to have a direct or complete impact, but we’ll have to watch for the next chance of snow/mix to occur Thursday & Friday with this system.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH with a few higher gusts, diminishing late.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 12-19. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow except snow may change to rain South Coast, accumulation of snow 2-4 inches except 1-2 inches South Coast. Highs 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with lingering snow or flurries possible evening. Clearing overnight. Watch for black ice formation! Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind W under 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Possible snow. Highs 24-41. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Possible snow. Lows 17-24. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Possible snow. Highs 25-32. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

Next storm brings a threat of snow/mix/rain to the region by February 14, and another system may threaten by the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

Additional opportunities for wintry weather events but much of the time should be on the dry and cold side.

155 thoughts on “Monday February 8 2021 Forecast (7:52AM)”

  2. Thanks TK!

    Snowfall yesterday @Logan = 5.3”

    Total snowfall to date = 29.7” (+3.8”)

    How much for you JPD? 🙂

    1. I put it in the other blog,

      7.5 inches yesterday, but it looks like another 1/2 inch fell after the measurement, so Let’s make it an even 8 inches.

      That would bring the season total up to 37.75 inches.

  3. Jimmy – How much snowfall for NYC yesterday? Double digits?

    Regardless, I suspect they still have the lead over BOSTON.

  6. Thanks TK. Philip NYC had 4.5 inches of snow yesterday. The season total for them is 32.2 inches. I believe Boston did close the gap with the 5.3 inches yesterday.

  8. So yesterday was fun….Only about 1″ here and our snowpack sits at about 4″

    As you know, I always post mortem. Certainly did not get the high end right. As I was thinking 5-7 in a SW to NE oriented band somewhere inland from the south coast and that band was more like 8-12. That band did set up / extend about 15-20 miles further north than I would have anticipated as well. Obviously the intensity I was way off – 1-2″ per hour rates were replaced with 3-4″ per hour rates. Also I was pretty adamant this would not be a ratio storm and would come in close to the standard 10:1. Certainly an anomalous set up and the length of time it took to saturate yesterday morning, should have told me that there was some additional drying levels aloft beyond anticipation. (Be wary every time something like this happens forecasters over correct and think every event is 20:1)

    I did get right most of the accumulations outside of that band and for sure nailed the lack recognition of the north and west cutoff. The 1″ at my house. The trace in the Berkshires. My house was under a winter storm warning Saturday evening and the Berkshire were under an advisory. Timing worked out well too.

    Going forward tomorrow looks like a general 2-4 event, but maybe 2-6? Reason being we are in a period where it kind of wants to snow hard and over achieve in certain areas, so a higher upper range can’t be discounted, its just a matter of where those additional accumulations occur.

    Thursday doesn’t jump out as much to me right now.

    I always think after Feb 15 that there begins a gradual uptick of daytime solar influence, but given snowpack and cold ground, I think that influence will be very slow in its progression until later February or early March and then those sun angles really become more influential by mid-March.

    1. Many thanks for the post mortem JMA.
      Much appreciated.

      Really was an interesting day yesterday. I missed the worst
      of the “death band” but into it good enough.

    2. If you hit CRL + you can enlarge.

      It shows that my area of JP just snuck inside the 8-12 inch
      range. Thus I feel good with the 8 inches I posted this morning.

      1. I have started using imgbb over imgur. Pictures look crystal clear no matter if you’re on mobile or desktop.

  11. Thank you, TK.

    Northern tier of the U.S. is cold everywhere, even Seattle this week. Same story across Europe and Asia. Largest cold air mass (covering the most territory) I’ve seen in a long time. Usually, there’s an area that `escapes’ the cold, like the Seattle area, or the British Isles. Not this time.

  14. What time do we think snowfall starts Tuesday? I have to ride my bike at about 6AM into the city of Boston from Belmont.

  16. From this morning’s discussion of the NWS office.

    Current indications are for a general 2 to 5 inches of snow
    across the region on Tuesday. The one thing will need to watch
    is a weak wave of low pressure passing to our south. There is a
    southwest LLJ on the order of 35 to 45 knots. If this wave can
    setup some sort of low level boundary, it is not out of the
    question for localized higher snow amounts. Something will have to keep an eye on over the next 24 hours. Regardless, another accumulating snow event is on the way.

  17. By the way, I though I would give Kudos to the SPC.
    They NAILED it with that MesoScale discussion yesterday
    for Heavy snow. They clearly indicated that there could possibly be areas within the discussion area that might see 3-4 inch
    per hour snow rates. Nice Job!

  19. Is this a mini version of 2015 for the foreseeable future? Widespread snows with very little mixing BUT only “light to moderate” events as opposed to mostly biggies that occurred in 2015.

  21. Thanks TK. I noticed the 12z NAM, HRRR, and 0Z Euro are a bit more robust with tomorrow’s event vs. the runs yesterday.

    Kuchera snowmaps showing as much as 4-7″ of snow in west/central MA and northern/western CT.

    00z Euro Kuchera Snowmap also had a general 5-6″ across the region.

    https://imgur.com/a/pmwusyM

    Wondering if we might have a few more surprises in some areas with this one…

  22. Beyond tomorrow, the models are showing largely a miss for Friday and an inland runner kitchen sink storm for around V-Day but hopefully that changes.

      1. I’m more bought in on a potential miss for friday than any sort of coherent forecast for Valentines which is still basically a week out. But I think the “one storm at a time” rule applies here before anything is ever ruled out.

            1. Clearly a battle ground, but I don’t think there will
              be a mechanism to get any moisture up here into the cold.

    2. I do not want a storm on the 14th or 15th . I have an important appointment on the 15th & I can’t get stuck at work . I came back today for the second time.

  31. 12z ICON on board for the coastal storm next weekend as well but has a track over ACK and introduces rain after a period of snow.

  35. Thank you TK!
    Yesterday’s storm gave me 5 3/4”, just missed out on that heavy band that set up shop to the south east of me.

    1. I get the idea Marshfield is either very, very wet snow again or some wet snow ending as some rain. We seem to be right in that transition zone (1-3) between not much and something low-end moderate.

    2. This thing keeps trending juicier and further north. Need to stop that trend or we are going to be mixing down here!

  42. Ross… I just got your message in moderation. I was away from my admin dashboard most of the day. You are approved now to post without comments going into moderation.

    To answer your question: Biking from Belmont to Boston should be ok so long as you are that early. I think the snow will not be that far behind though. Good luck!

  46. Dr S. A FB friend from Sutton posted your compiled maps on the Sutton site. I thought he found out here and was following whw. We know what Felix said about assuming. Do you post on Reddit too?

      1. I really has to look twice when I saw it. I thought I’d come here by accident. It sure is helpful to see all in one place. As always. Thank you

      2. To add to that: on reddit I have a small community where I post the maps and the 7 day forecasts collages and a larger boston community where I post them. Think of them like facebook groups. I also have a community I created there from scratch in 2013 to help writers write called writing prompts which has grown like crazy and has 15 million subscribers. (Wish that made me money! But I made that for the love of writing.) Now you know a little more about my goings on outside of the blog!

  47. I’ll probably add 1 inch of snowfall accumulation to my expected range on the next post, unless something sways me to do otherwise in the next 15 hours.

    1. Thanks, always love these. There are always some that I have no idea which station produced them. Sometimes by deductions I can figure it out, but not always.

      1. Order is always the same: upper left cbs (channel 4), upper right channel 5, middle left channel 7, middle right channel 25, lower right channel 10 because I never really watched NECN as a child and I don’t consider it “NBC” because growing up 7 was NBC so they get last order of the stations. And lower right since it’s not a station is always NWS.

    1. Shaping up to be good “show” snow. I hate having to go into work monday through friday but there’s a massive picture window overlooking an onramp in quincy where I work so it will be at least a good show for me.

  51. Old salty. I’m in the middle of episode 9 season 13 of heartland. I saw the title of the last episode. I suspect that I am not going to like this one bit.

    2. Not to worry. It’s not what you might think.
      Although there are some really serious scary goings on
      that may or not be a prelude to season 14.

  52. Looks like Boston is right on the 2-4 // 4-6 line . Harvey saying Saturday night could be the next significant hit . I’ll take that because as I said I have an appointment Monday morning the holiday. Doesn’t think much of Thursday / Friday as of now

    1. The weekend storm looks more focused on Sunday than Saturday. Euro is a bit quicker on timing and has it out of here earlier Sunday but the Gfs is focused more on Sunday afternoon/Sunday night.

  53. Full remote day for Sutton and Uxbridge tomorrow. Not that it changes anything for my grands in either town since they are full remote anyway

  54. Every snow train is different. In 2011 the 5-6 week series of major snowstorms together with sustained cold remains my favorite of all time. It lasted even longer (and had more events) than the mega snow blitz in 2015. But, this latest little snow train is shaping up to be a good one, too. Fairly sustained period of cold – certainly no serious thaw – and one hit after another.

    I am definitely a snow train and sustained cold fan, as opposed to having one big wallop and have it all go away in a jiffy.

    I absolutely love this stretch of weather. I long for it in the middle of summer. Wish I could bottle it up and release it on a day in July.

  55. Daniel Fahrenheit was a wacky scientist. Globally, his temperature scale is not widely used, the 0 and 100 points on the scale have no meaning, or at least not the meaning that the Celsius scale intentionally attributed to them: freezing and boiling points. Yet, it turns out that 0F has a meaning of sorts. And, in the Dutch weather discussion today that meaning was highlighted. The use of salt on roads to melt snow is not effective below -18C, or 0F. It’s a bizarre quirk on Fahrenheit’s scale.

    I prefer Fahrenheit, but that’s probably because I grew up here and got used to it. I did get accustomed to Celsius while living in Europe, and I can `feel’ what a 0C day is like, and quickly `translate’ in my head to a 32F day.

    What I love about Fahrenheit is the smaller increments. When the mets in Holland say it’s going to be 0C. They could actually mean 31F or 33F. There is a big difference.

  59. SClarke, thanks for bringing up the `great equalizer:’ -40F and -40C. I don’t think it’s ever gotten that cold anywhere in New England. Wind chill on top of Mt. Washington, yes. But not actual temperature. Someone may correct me on this.

    1. Oh I think it has.

      I do not how accurate this is, but I found this.

      The record low temperature in Massachusetts is -40 °F (-40 °C), recorded January 22, 1984 in Chester, MA.

      And I also found this

      https://coolweather.net/statetemperature/massachusetts_temperature.htm

      That was for our state and this is for Maine

      According to the State Climate Extremes Committee of NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, Maine hit a record -50 degrees on Jan. 16, 2009. That’s pretty cold!Dec 16, 2020

      And this for all states. Seems to be good.

      https://www.infoplease.com/math-science/weather/record-lowest-temperatures-by-state

      2. Interesting. I would not have guessed that every state except for Hawaii has recorded a temperature below 0F.

    1. A little more snow for south shore on this projection, 3-4 inches compared to around 2” most of the other runs today.

      1. Depends on timing of heaviest snow and where it hits. In a way, yesterday´s storm occurred on a day without true commutes. So, it could snow less tomorrow than Sunday and still be more impactful.

  66. Good morning. Looks to me like 2-4 inches would be the call for today.
    I saw some 4-6 inch forecasts. I think that is a little too aggressuve. But hey, maybe we have another over achiever.
    We’ll know soon enough.

    1. In my opinion, they are all too high.
      Curious to see TK’s ranges.

      And thank you Doc. These are awesome
      I think we all love them.

      2. Don’t focus on the high #s.

        Still, this season has a history of overachieving, starting with the late October event.

  69. We have lost Mary Wilson of the Supremes Saw them live and in person during the late 60s in the intimate setting of the Melody Tent in Framingham.

    1. Yes. At age 76 which is relatively young by today’s standards. My father died at the same age some years ago.

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