Tuesday February 9 2021 Forecast (7:44AM)

195 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

After a couple storms that were filled with complexities, today we get a “simple” winter storm, not a big one, but a light to moderate snowfall, some typical mix/rain near the South Coast, and a pretty straightforward later morning start time to early evening end time, as low pressure passes just south of the New England South Coast, with cold air in place. For commuters, we sneak through the morning without an issue, but the afternoon/evening drive will be more impacted by this event. High pressure moves in to bring us a chilly but brighter winter day Wednesday. I continue to eye a pair of low pressure areas for potential impact later in the week. The expectation was that the storm track would be pushed a bit further south during this week, and that is likely to be the case, with those passing mainly south of the region between Thursday and Friday, although we’ll probably deal with quite a bit of cloudiness as they pass us by – and as always a wary eye will be kept on them, just in case. Expect a dry but cold Saturday as high pressure makes a brief visit.

TODAY: Cloudy. Snow arrives west to east mid through late morning, steadiest and moderate to heavy at times this afternoon, mixing with or changing to rain Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and possibly the immediate MA & RI South Coast, before tapering off from west to east early evening. Snowfall accumulation coating to 2 inches in far southern areas that mix or change to rain, 2 to 4 inches MA South Shore (Plymouth area) to interior far southern New England (Providence RI area), and 4 to 7 inches elsewhere. Highs 27-34. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing west to east. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 24-31. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 17-24. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 25-32. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 24-31. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

Active pattern. Colder than normal temperatures overall. Storm threats focused on February 14 & 17. Favoring snow over any mix/rain for the first system, but cannot discount the possibility of a variety of precipitation depending on storm track.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

Two more opportunities for low pressure impacts focused around February 20 & 22 but either or both of these can be pushed to the south of the region. Far to soon for any confidence on these future potentials.

195 thoughts on “Tuesday February 9 2021 Forecast (7:44AM)”

  8. The beast from the east…
    In full force in Europe.
    Most snow in the Netherlands in about a decade. I’ve been Scotland I am getting a steady supply of videos from my friend there and it looks like a winter wonderland.

      1. Pure ice under the tire lines.

        That is a horrible feeling. I can feel that sensation of having little control of the car.

  9. TK, you did say snow becoming moderate to heavy???

    TODAY: Cloudy. Snow arrives west to east mid through late morning, steadiest and moderate to heavy at times this afternoon

    There is enough forcing and lift to produce truly heavy snow?

    Harvey last night say snow rates of perhaps 1/2 inch to 1 inch per hour.

    I must be missing something.

    Looking over everything, it was looking like 1/4 inch to 1/2 inch per hour to me.

    I’d love a meteorology lesson here to learn what I obviously do not know. Many thanks

  13. Thank you, TK.

    The widespread nature of the cold air masses in both North America and Europe is impressive.

    Dutch meteorologists expect the very cold and dry (sunny) period to extend through Sunday (~100% chance), and then beginning Monday a 40% chance it continues in unabated form through next week, 40% chance it continues in somewhat modified form (which could mean more snow, by the way), and only a 20% chance of the prevailing southwesterly taking over and the cold period quickly receding. It should be noted that forecasting is easier there than it is here. Once the southwesterly takes over, that’s it. No more cold. It’s 40s and gray (often light rain) like it was all January. There’s little yo-yoing or variability that goes on.

    And also during this cold period it’s a static picture of an east/northeast wind all the time. Talk about a stationary high parked up north.

  15. Just saw a report of 1.5″ in Easton CT already. This is another day of light fluffy snow with high ratios. Temps are cold through the column. Won’t take much to add up.

  16. Thanks TK
    Light snow coming down where I am. This is a minor event compared to 8 years ago today when many of us were waking up to 2-3 feet of snow. What a storm that was where there were places that saw 6 inch an hour snowfall rates.

    1. I remember that well. My son in law had to climb out of the window. The doors opened out and were all blocked. We also had major ice dam damage after that. 30” in framingham.

  18. Boston if the short range models pan out your going to be very close if not gain the lead in the snowfall standings.
    1. NY 32.2
    2. BOS 29.9

  20. Excerpt from NWS discussion. I think it answers a question
    I had above.

    there are now more robust signals for mesoband potential
    near and just north of the Mass Pike centered just before or intothe PM commute. While there is some level of uncertainty with thepositioning of any bands, reduced visibilities and snowfall rates inand around these bands that could approach 1″ per hour are a recipemake for locally very difficult travel during such a high-traffic
    period.

      1. I know something about what happens in Season 14.

        It “may” be related to Ty and Amy being shot. If you want me to say more, I will. I do NOT know if it is related, just saying it could be.

  21. Ha. Was just clearing snow and chopping ice from a couple of areas to measure and saw the pixie dust. What a GREAT description. I said on Sunday that it was so light that it seemed one flake was standing on the shoulders of the flake beneath it.

      1. Lmao I keep it strictly to the stations and NWS. I See so many homemade maps in my travels it’s interesting. Maybe if the valentines storm stays on the guidance I’ll put together homemade maps I see around.

  29. Snow has picked up intensity here with a solid half inch on the ground. I’d call it borderline moderate now. Up to 25F.

  34. Thank you, TK.

    First flakes on Fresh Pond Parkway (Cambridge) right on time at 11:00. Now good, steady, light snow in Arlington Heights.

      1. We used to take our kids there to swim! Eventually the goose population made it grosser than they could stand, but it’s still a nice area for a short walk.

  35. Back to pixie dust here but picked up about 3/4″ in that burst.

    Radar not very impressive down here. Looks like I am too far south for this one. Dry slot in the process of enveloping most of CT. This looks like more of a Pike north deal today.

  36. Just a few flakes where I am right now.
    As for Valentine’s Day plenty of time for that to shift south and east.

  37. Thanks, TK…

    Just started here in Taunton and it didn’t take too long for it to come down at a pretty good clip!

  40. It may be early yet, but it looks like the banding may set up
    Boston area WSW to the MA/CT border. Let’s see how it moves or not.

  41. You look to be in a good spot JpDave. This will end up a bust for my area but with over a foot of snow last week and close to a half a foot on Super Bowl Sunday I really can’t complain.

    1. Snowing pretty good for sure. IF it stayed this way, it would accumulate at about 1/2 to 3/4 inch per hour.

  42. 12Z GFS for 2/18-2/19 shows a cutter with a weak reflection
    of a coastal. Too weak, too late to help.

    Snow to Rain

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021020912/231/prateptype_cat.conus.png

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021020912/234/prateptype_cat.conus.png

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021020912/237/prateptype_cat.conus.png

    But all of this adds to the seasonal snow totals AND it is a long way out there, so things will change.

  43. Thanks TK!
    Snowing at a moderate border line heavy clip. I’m in that band but it seems to be trying to push north of the pike. I hope that it stops right where it is to keep me in the heaviest accumulations.

  46. On the high side of light here. Accumulation is minimal on clear areas. Other areas have so much snow, it is hard to tell.

  48. 12 snow flurries per hour, at this rate, we might have a dusting by February 25th. At least the GFS blizzard will then take over. 🙂 🙂

  49. And poof went the snow

    On another note, kudos to our superintendent. Classes on full remote days because of snow will end at 1:00. Great solution

        1. I wouldn’t be so sure of that. I’ve spoken with a couple of local superintendents who have both expressed that Commissioner Riley is not a fan of remote learning and likely won’t allow for remote snow days to replace in-person learning post Covid. This year it was a way to get the requisite days in given the late start in most districts.

    2. They are doing the same thing here, remote learning snow days are on a compressed schedule and end at 12:30PM

  50. Gentle light to moderate snow in Back Bay.

    Most of the Charles river is frozen. Esplanade lagoon is frozen solid at this point.

    Meanwhile, some of the migrant birds are packing their bags. Red-winged blackbirds tend to make their first appearance by around the 20th of February. I don’t think they follow TK’s blog. They seem to ignore the weather forecasts up here entirely. Right now they’re enjoying 70-75F days. Within a few days they’ll start the long trek northward.

  52. So at 1:20 p.m. in Amesbury, we have nothing new in the ground, and it’s hardly snowing. Should we expect the snow to pickup at some point? It’s bright enough that the sun is almost shining through the clouds.

  53. We are in that heavier band in North reading and intensity has picked up quite a bit in the last 15 minutes…approaching 1 inch

  55. A bit of light snow now after a shut down. The dry spots that were headed this way also seem to be closing up ….so far

  59. All of the 12z runs have something for Sunday. The EURO the weakest of the 12z runs. The 12z EURO wants to deliver a MESSORAMA middle of next week.

  62. Almost looks like gravity waves on the radar. Feeling better about snow chances on south shore next couple of hours. Multiple, decent intensity waves of snow developing in SE CT and RI headed northeast.

  63. Looking at the NYC and ALBANY radars, it is clear that there
    is much snow to go through. How intense, well that is the question, but it sure looks like it will be snowing for quite some time.

  64. I’ve been thinking this a few day now, if we’re not going to have a powerhouse low with this massive temp transient btwn the Midwest and the southeast, then, I can see a cold air damming on steroids system giving a good portion of the central and southern Atlantic region a nasty sleet/ice storm.

    Seen a bit on the 12z euro. Much too warm aloft down there for snow, but, could be extremely cold for them in the lower atmosphere.

    Atlanta, Charlotte, interior north and South Carolina, southern VA and interior GA perhaps. Places that get frz rain from time to grime, but this could be a significant event.

    1. WSW lowered to WWA. The highest amounts will be for Eastern MA including Boston at 2-3”. Interesting.

      Has the storm fizzled?

      1. Philip messy is what you just said snow mix rain or as I like to call it a MESSORAMA
        The forecast for Sunday will change so many times.

  70. Big change last 20-30 minutes. Oscillating between moderate and heavy snow.

    Streets were perfect 30 minutes ago, now all snow covered.

  71. That’s an interesting band just south of Boston.

    Looks like it’s over that area that got hit hard Sunday.

    A zone to watch next couple of hours.

  72. Still snowing here in JP, but quite a bit lighter than it was say 1/2 hour ago. Oh well.

    I think 4 inches is the top end, IF that. This is a WIMPORAMA!

  73. I’m starting to think we are going to come out of this with zero up here. Still no accumulation and snow is so light you can barely see it coming down.

    1. Looks pretty serious out there again. Snow is bordering on MODERATE, if not already there. Difficult for me to gauge visibility. It is probably between 1/2 and 3/4 mile.

  78. 2″mhere. Moderate to heavy snow continues, fine snow flakes, but a very thick ¨mist¨ of it falling.

    If this can keep up, perhaps 4 to 5 inches is possible.

    1. Beautiful storm here in JP. Kids are sledding at Millennium. I love these 3-5 inch storms. Roads are usually decent and it’s serene and calming which we all need right how.

  81. I don´t know if its a subscription …… I like to use pivotalweather and the other is instant weather maps

    On instant weather maps, I think you can subscribe to get extra weather model maps that aren´t just the basic stuff

  83. Nearing 3 inches here in Woburn. Will have an “official” measurement later. Barely into the bottom end of my ranges and a few places may fall shy of it.

  85. Something a little amiss with the GFS today, last few runs. I’ll figure it out. This is the first time in a while that I feel the ECMWF has a better handle on the medium range pattern in terms of amplitude & timing. I don’t expect it to stay that way for long…

  86. I think it was done here before it started!

    Bustorama in CT. Dry slotted most of the day and what did fall was mainly light. Calling it 1.2″ total here in Coventry.

    Going out with the broom to clear the driveway in a bit.

    Overall, this one underperformed and the last overperformed. I guess it all evens out in the end!

    On to the next….

    1. The fickle finger of fate …..better known as Mother Nature.

      2.5 Inches in south Sutton. I figure with the amount on my deck it will be April till I can sit out again at night

      1. It’s the tale of two Suttons. Here in Wilkinsonville, we have about 1inch…maybe 1.5 on the deck in the shade. I used a broom to clear the steps; didn’t even bother with the driveway.

    2. What happened was that less precipitation has fallen than was expected. 🙂 It happens sometimes, just like sometimes more falls than is expected. 🙂 ‘Tis meteorology, an inexact science. I love live examples of this fact. 🙂

      If you think about it, we missed the accumulation of precipitation by a couple tenths of an inch melted. Not too shabby! 😉 But people’s obsession with snow makes them hold us to 10 or 15 times the standards of expectation. 😉 Teeheehee!

  88. Speaking of the next, 18z GFS is a bit weaker and further off shore with the Sunday system, more similar to the Euro. Would be a moderate snow event.

    Is it just me or does this Sunday system have a lot more potential than what the models are depicting right now?

    3. Harvey still saying it’s Saturday night / Sunday & right now not looking that strong . Snow has stopped here in pembroke.

        1. Radar and surface obs say otherwise unless you have one heck of a layer of dry air near the ground. You may be experiencing very fine flakes at the moment, but the back edge of the snow is still some distance to your west.

            1. There are little slots in the precip area so you must have been under one of those. Same thing happened here. Stopped for about 1 minute then re-started.

      2. A couple runs have shown a weaker storm, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it will be. Guidance is still very suspect beyond a couple days.

          1. I am very wary of the potential for Sunday and the middle of next week (around the 17th). Granted, the 2nd one is really way too far out there, but the Sunday one definitely has some decent potential to be a plowable and COLD event.

  89. The system next week has a lot of potential as well. I have a feeling a weaker system on Valentines Day may translate to stronger system next Tues/Wed and vice versa. We’ll see.

    1. It was mostly the northern areas that under-performed. Just didn’t translate the energy that far north.

  91. TK I remember you saying y when you gave your weather predictions for 2021 that next winter was going to be colder and snowier. Is this a preview of what you think next winter will be where it will snow a lot but not big time snowstorms?

    1. Well, keeping in mind the uncertainty of long range forecasting, and that you can’t really use anything other than anticipation of long term indices that are at least somewhat predictable months in advance, I would not expect anything close to a dud winter in 2021-2022. That’s about all I can say for now. 😉

    1. This is not the only reason, but is one of the reasons that the SE ridge failed to become much of anything.

  95. The sledding by the windmill is nice. But, it’s also about the only place in Holland you can sled. The country is very flat. The windmills often have moots around them and are built on mounds of peat. The kids are sledding down the mound.

    When I lived there with my children (when they were little) I did have a sled and would run as fast as I could holding a rope attached to the sled. Sometimes I’d do this on the canals, and then let go at a certain point and the sled would keep going for bit over the ice.

  96. I measured 3.25 inches here in JP
    Season total now an even 40.0 inches. Definitely ahead of average for this point in the season.

  98. Mark that’s twice in as many storms you’ve been dry slotted. I hope for your sake your not becoming the new Charlie hole. Mother Nature owes you a rain check or in your case a snow check. Lol.

    1. I did ok in the Sunday storm, 7” was better than I had expected. But yes, I am overdue for a nice 3-4” per hour death band pivoting over my head with a bit of lightning and thunder mixed in!

  99. Official snowfall today @ Logan = 3.0”

    Total seasonal snowfall to date = 32.7”

    TK – Assuming this pattern holds for awhile, Logan “should” get to normal for the season. You might not even need March. 😉

    2. And to think they only pulled an inch from that big storm last week, not a very good representation. It could and should be higher!

  101. Eric Fisher tweet a short time ago:

    My wager would be that we’ll be in this kind of regime through most of February. Possibly breaking down by end of the month/early March

  102. Nice to have an orderly distribution of snowfall with most areas picking of 1-3″ of snow. These 1-6″ events with a band of 12″ where gretting hard to make a map for….

  103. Boston now takes the lead over NY in the snowfall standings with the 3 inches they got today. For the season Boston 32.7 NY 32.2. Will Boston expand on their lead?

    1. As long as Boston beats New York all is good.

      Wait….are we still taking snow or perhaps a sporting event?

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