Thursday February 11 2021 Forecast (7:03AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

This 5-day segment takes us through the Presidents Day Weekend, and during this period we will have 3 low pressure systems pass our longitude in the continued cold and active weather pattern. No, this is no 2015, when we were in a much higher amplitude pattern with cold so locked in that our storms were all big powder fluff snowstorms – this one has a different set-up. It’s cold, yes, but we set at the eastern edge of a large cold air mass which dominates a good portion of the US, while far southeastern portions of the US, especially Florida, has been sitting in very warm air. The boundary zone between that cold & warm is always the most vulnerable area for storms to be, and a quick jet stream moves a steady series of them along the boundary. The first of the three aforementioned low pressure areas passes to the south of New England today, close enough only to bring brief snow around the South Coast for a brief time, while the remainder of the area just starts to the day under a canopy of clouds, which will then clear out. The second low pressure area passes even further south of the region on Friday, leaving us with a partly sunny and dry day. The next low makes a run at the region on Sunday, Valentine’s Day, but will be losing punch as it does so. At this point, my expectation from this one is that we can squeeze out a generally light snowfall from late Saturday night as moisture streams in ahead of the system, through Sunday midday before drier air has sufficiently eaten away at the system that we probably end the day with at least some sun. Presidents Day Monday is expected to be dry but breezy and cold between that departing low to the east and approaching high pressure from the west.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy early morning with brief light snow South Coast. Increasing sun thereafter. Highs 24-31. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Parttly cloudy. Lows 13-20. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 24-31. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow arriving overnight from west to east. Lows 17-24. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with probable snow, except possible mix South /Coast. Breaking clouds later. Highs 27-34. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-17. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Partly sunny,. Highs 22-29. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

Current timing brings our next storm threat in for February 16, likely a more significant snow to mix event, details to be determined. Dry weather follows for February 17. Quick-moving systems in the jet stream mean that the next threat will be sooner, sometime in the February 18-19 time window with dry weather returning to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

One or two more possible precipitation threats during this period. Temperatures near to below normal.

95 thoughts on “Thursday February 11 2021 Forecast (7:03AM)”

  3. Thanks TK. I am rooting for the 6z GFS to happen for Tuesday. It is all snow. I don’t want to see a messorama where you have several inches of snow and slop on top of it.

  4. Bring on multiple snoworams not mixoramas. Could this be the first time ever where Boston had snow in October finish the winter with above normal snowfall? BDL in CT trying to do this for the second time ever. It happened winter 2016 2017.

    1. 1st time ever, as long as you don’t include

      1891-92
      1904-05
      1917-18
      1940-41
      1957-58
      1960-61
      1961-62
      1963-64
      1964-65
      1969-70
      1970-71
      1975-76
      2000-01
      2002-03

      All of which had at least a trace of snow in October in Boston, and the seasonal total finished above the long term (130-year) average of 42.8 inches.

  6. Thanks TK. Going to shake some talismans and light some incense and make all to storms go to bermuda instead.

  7. Thank you TK!
    The Tuesday – Wednesday storm will be a fun one to watch as the models will probably flip flop a hundred times before the event. I don’t envy TK or any other meteorologist trying to nail this one down. I think there will be a lot of variables with this one from energy placement to secondary development or lack of, ptype issues. Jp Dave may need seat belts for his computer chair. 😉

    2. Euro has a little more mixing/sleet than the GFS, but both have a very similar set up. Will be fun either way.

      Curious to see what changes, if any, appear on the 12Z runs.

      I shouldn’t say If any, should I? There WILL be changes, I just hope they are small and inconsequential.

  11. Thanks TK.

    Nice fresh sugar coating of snow here in Coventry CT this AM.

    Areas closer to the shore received more. These were some of the totals reported….

    Norwalk 2.8″
    Branford 2.0″
    Easton 2.0″
    Ansonia 2.0″
    Seymour 1.5″
    Hamden 1.3″
    Southbury 1.0″
    North Haven 1.0″
    Clinton 0.9″
    Salem 0.8″
    Tolland 0.5″
    Brooklyn 0.5″
    Moosup 0.3″
    Enfield T

    Of note, the 2.8″ in Norwalk melted to 0.1″ QPF. That’s a ratio of 28:1! Pure fluff again.

      2. Thanks for posting that tj. I’ve been saying this about writing storms off to early . We saw that super bowl Sunday the storm went on & off all week & ended up being a decent storm for a lot of area .

    1. Eh, not concerned yet. Both the Euro and GFS ensembles showing signs of some earlier coastal redevelopment.

      Also, that 12z operational run above moved SE of the 0z by about 200 miles. Low track was over Buffalo, now just NW of NYC.

  33. In the snowfall standing between BOS and NY NY has taken the lead with it’s 1.3 today and now leads with 33.8 inches. Normal snowfall for an entire winter 25.1 inches
    1. NY 33.8 inches
    2. BOS 32.7 inches

    Will NY maintain it’s lead if those storm threats materialize or will BOS go back in the lead by late next week? ??

          1. Yes. I’ve been referring to it since November and that we would be switching norms for this season. This is a reflection of the much snowier regime that began in the 1990s, probably very much related to the AMO.

    2. NYC does beat Boston in the snow ranking, but very infrequently. This explains the large discrepancy in average snowfall for NYC (25 inches) v. Boston (43 inches).

      I think Boston beats NY by eking out a couple of accumulating snowfalls in March, which NY will not benefit from (rain or mix there, snow in Boston).

  34. NY has 33.8 inches without any measurable snow in January. They had 10.5 in December from the storm before Christmas and this month they have 23 inches so far.

  39. Afternoon Weather Thoughts…

    Nothing majorly different in my mode of thinking for upcoming “stuff”. I don’t think we’ll have a low pressure area pass north of us until some time in the last week of February. Until then, we’ll be having a series of misses, grazes, or cold storms – of course leaving out details until we are in the proper time frame for deep analysis. In the mean time, run-to-run stuff will be nothing but a fiction-fest, as usual. 😉

    As for Sunday, I’ll partially contradict what I just said above and bend my rules for numbers enough to say that I’ll be surprised if anybody exceeds 2 inches of accumulation that day.

  43. I looked quick at the GFS run when I made the comment Mark.
    This could end up being the second straight winter where snow has fallen at BDL in October and we have above normal snowfall for the winter. They are at 37.1 inches for the season.

    1. We have enough data now to prove that the flakes in October lead to below normal snow in the winter is really not valid at all. It’s pretty much a coin flip. There is an incorrect public viewpoint on this simply because 2 notable events (October 1979 & October 2011) were followed by below average snow winters. But as noted above earlier today, October flakes of at least a trace in Boston have lead to ABOVE average snowfall for the season in all of the following winter seasons…

      1891-92
      1904-05
      1917-18
      1940-41
      1957-58
      1960-61
      1961-62
      1963-64
      1964-65
      1969-70
      1970-71
      1975-76
      2000-01
      2002-03

    1. HAHAHA that was a good one. The runs that go from something like 6 inches to something like 3 1/2 feet… SAME MODEL, basically SAME time frame, just show you how correct we are when we warn people not to bother believing much of anything you see beyond day 3. I’m really hoping post-pandemic & upgrade we see some better stuff from these….

  45. Tk is it looking like after midnight for Boston Sunday morning & do you have a tentative end time , can I get home at a reasonable time Sunday afternoon. Sounds like it should be an easy clean up

    1. Current idea of a time-frame is shortly before dawn to shortly after noon, and it will be easy to clean up, if there is anything to actually clean up… 😉

      1. So coming in way after midnight and only lasting to early afternoon. So this could actually be a salter event?? As long as it’s not a nuisance storm not wanting to go as those are the worst kind

  47. Really nice, in plain English, long term discussion write up by longtime NWS Boston / Taunton / Norton Met Glenn Field. Nothing hysterical. Mentions it is February in New England and limits the hysterics. Also dismisses the NBM output, which I believe poses a clear and present danger to forecasts everywhere.

    1. Always loved G.F. .. he’s a funny guy too! His little chuckle when he shows a slide that is a joke, or has trouble getting something to load on the laptop gets me every time.

    1. I’d side with the lower. Remember when a couple days ago I said that Sunday had some decent potential? Well, there is a reason why I use the word “potential” and not “certainty”. 😉

      Sort of like once upon a model run (or two), today and tomorrow had decent potential. 😉

      1. I would go real light for Sunday.

        Yes those models – remember all the record cold temps in SNE or the SE ridge will never return models from last week or the 70 degrees in February from a month ago model runs? Yeah, me too.

        Let’s deal with Sunday, and work from there.

        1. Yup! Oh yes, the BLOWTORCH February. Yup. Real blowtorch….. The entire northern hemisphere is about as cold as it’s been since early this century or late last century. No torches alight at this time. 😉

  50. Meanwhile in Montana….

    Lewistown, Lewistown Municipal Airport (KLWT)
    Lat: 47.04917°NLon: 109.46639°WElev: 4167ft.

    Clear
    -29°F

    Humidity 4%
    Wind Speed SW 13 MPH
    Barometer 30.31 in (1026.41 mb)
    Dewpoint -76°F (-60°C)
    Visibility 10.00 mi
    Wind Chill -55°F (-48°C)
    Last update 11 Feb 06:50 PM MST

    1. Can’t ever recall seeing an observation with a dewpoint of -76F before. That air is a bit cold and dry 🙂

    1. I am happy with that! I like ,any others are fighting ice dams at the moment on my roof on the side that doesn’t get sun and can’t take anymore snow :).

    1. Canadian model was the first to have this idea and a lot of people dismissed it immediately. But in this type of pattern, string-outs are common and should never be discounted that far in advance.

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