Saturday February 13 2021 Forecast (8:33AM)

106 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

We’ll continue to be in the battle zone between entrenched arctic air over a good portion of the country and a warmer southeastern US due to the appearance of a high pressure ridge, finally, long after it was initially expected. While none of the low pressure areas moving along this boundary will be particularly strong, we do have 3 to contend with during this 5-day period, the first of which comes by tonight and early Sunday with light precipitation, the second during Monday again with fairly light precipitation, and the third and most moisture-laden system to follow later Monday night through Tuesday. The biggest question to answer with these is how much warm air will come in aloft to result in a variety of precipitation rather than mostly snow. At the surface, we will be on the cold side of the boundary for the duration, but that means that if we warm up aloft we’ll deal with at least sleet becoming part of the deal, and if we warm up enough we’ll end up with a freezing rain issue where surface temperatures remain below freezing. So this will be the puzzle to solve… Meanwhile, this unsettled stretch will be book-ended by dry weather during the day today and Wednesday, following the departure of the third system.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 24-31. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow arriving overnight from west to east. Lows 17-24. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty snow & possible freezing drizzle into midday. Any snow accumulation mostly coatings. Chance of minor icing. Highs 25-32. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow and sleet possible. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Cloudy. Occasional light snow/sleet likely, with freezing rain/drizzle possible. Highs 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Spotty light snow or snow/sleet mix evening. Steady snow arriving overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain likely, trending toward mostly snow. Highs 26-33. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

Another low pressure area likely brings unsettled weather with a variety of precipitation possible in the February 18-19 window, favoring cold solution. Fair, cold weather to follow for the February 20-21 weekend before next system has to be watched for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

One or two more possible precipitation threats during this period. Temperatures near to below normal.

106 thoughts on “Saturday February 13 2021 Forecast (8:33AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK!
    This Monday night /Tuesday event is going to be tricky to forecast but I can see the possibility of a decent size freezing rain event for my area. I know this is still far out but I think that scenario is on the table as of right now.

  5. Thanks TK!

    It would appear that more in the way of ice melt/treatment will be used as opposed to a lot of plowing, shoveling and/or snow blowing.

    2. No one is getting 3 inches at least not around here . D- 1 is what I’ve seen & 1 may be to high . South of Boston actually may be a mix which will make driving tough . No plowing for this one it’s a salter but who the heck knows lol .

  8. It may snow at a decent clip for a few hours late tonight. Why won’t it add up even though the surface temp will be cold? High density, small snowflakes / grains because of the temperature profile of the atmosphere. If we had conditions for a fluff event, it would probably be a few inches.

    The NAM is trying to show this with that decent slug of snow late tonight, and now it takes a slug of rain south of here Monday (a miss) with nothing really going on over this area. One model, one run, so we’ll see.

  10. And there are still folks out there in social media land that think this is easy .. Yup let’s just look at model output and choose the one we like, want, or think might be right! IF ONLY…

    Here’s an excerpt from Andrew Loconto’s short term discussion out of NWS Boston this morning.

    “We begin an active weather pattern tonight, with the first of what may likely be several episodes of wintry weather across the next few days. Wintry weather with this first event is really quite light and encompasses two periods: tonight into the overnight for SE MA, RI back northwestward to a rough BDL- ORH-BVY line; and another for the interior starting early Sunday into most of the day.

    As a whole, storm total liquid equivalent QPF ranges from a few hundredths N/W of I-95, to 0.10-0.15 inches south and east. So as mentioned this is a really light-accumulating period of wintry weather, one where snow and sleet accumulations in and of themselves fall short of Advisory levels (an inch or less
    should be common). However one of the larger uncertainties in this period is the vertical distribution of moisture, and more
    specifically that which resides in the ice nucleation layer.
    This is something that models tend to struggle with in marginal, light- QPF setups like this one. Model soundings and RH cross sections do show a lack of RH at times in that layer. That could force periods of freezing drizzle with trace-icing, and that would potentially support a need for winter weather advisories. This potential is actually shown really well by the NBM probabilities for the presence of in-cloud ice nuclei, which decrease significantly after 03z from west to east.

    Because of the above uncertainties, I didn`t have the
    confidence to hoist headlines with the morning package. However it may need to be considered in later updates pending better confidence in the moisture profile (e.g. one that would support FZDZ for the trace- icing as opposed to SN/PL). Let`s take a look at each of of the two periods.

    For tonight/overnight: precip will continue to advance north and east from the South Coast. Thermal profiles support an initial p-type of light snow. GFS shows a warm-nose around 800 to 850 mb around 0 to 0.5 degrees C overnight, but are around +1 to +2C off the NAM near the South Coast/Cape Cod northward into central RI and eastern CT. Reflected in several models is a fairly deep reservoir of sub-freezing air underneath the warm nose down to the sfc that should support potential hydrometeor re-freezing, following a top-down p-type approach. Thus think we`ll see either of three precip types: snow, snow mixed with sleet, or as mentioned above freezing drizzle/”snizzle”. Have shownsnow/sleet amounts C-1″ across eastern CT eastward into Cape Cod, with coatings of snow further north and west. It may remain dry for much of western and northern MA with this initial round of light precip as it pulls eastward into our eastern waters.

    For Sunday: Next round of light wintry precip on an inverted sfc trough mainly north and west of a BDL-ORH-LWM line. Cold advection behind the passage of the low supports light snow or freezing drizzle/”snizzle” as this batch of light precipitation moves east-northeast. A coating to up to an inch of new snow possible by the time precip ends around mid-aftn, with the potential for a light glaze.”

    …and that just deals with a relatively short period of time.

  12. Thanks TK. Battle zone pattern continues, though it appears the Southeast ridge is gradually gaining the upper hand. Took it long enough though, as you mentioned. Long after just about anyone expected I think. And with the continued -AO and Arctic outbreak to our west, it’s still going to feel very much like winter for some time to come. Definitely not convinced the Thursday system ends up being a “meltdown storm” like some of the models have shown. Probably more of a messy mix.

    I’m actually visiting my folks in Wrentham for the long weekend and was pretty struck with the snow depth here. I’ll have to go outside and measure but I bet it’s 15-20″ in the backyard, which is well sheltered. Those despairing over the appearance of the SE Ridge can take comfort knowing this pattern or an even worse one (without the -AO) *easily* could have been in place for the entire winter.

      1. Any winter can be a “dud” for snow, but yes, back in the fall this one appeared to have the odds stacked against it. The upcoming pattern, while chilly and active, is starting to look pretty unfavorable for significant snow. It’s more like what myself and a lot of others expected most of the winter to look like. Messy and progressive systems with little chance to be “all snow” events. But even if we didn’t see another flake of snow the rest of the way (we will of course) it’s already been a respectable winter thanks to what’s happened in the stratosphere with the polar vortex.

  13. Not winter-related but something you may find of interest. Starting on/about April 28, NWS will begin issuing “tiered” Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, in the same format as Tornado and Flash Flood Warnings. Warnings meeting the highest tiered category (producing hail of >= baseball size and/or winds >= 80mph) will now set of Wireless Emergency Alerts.

    https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn21-22svr_ibw.pdf

    IMO, this change is a long time coming especially with regards to WEA activation for the highest end warnings. In SNE it would be extremely rare to meet the criteria for a WEA, but it’s more relevant in other areas of the country where it’s still unusual but a little more common.

  14. Here at work doing an 8 hour shift 4am – 12pm . Just got the storm call be back at 9pm tonight until sometime tomorrow.

      1. Thanks Tom it should be an easy one & the campus already has a ton of salt down from earlier in the week .

    1. Indeed & I was in at 3am yesterday . It’s all good it’s part of my job always something to do if you want it . As long as I’m out at a decent time tomorrow am & I am off Monday it’s all good as I missed A lot of OT. The Only thing is I hope tonight’s storm is out early in the morning & does not linger all day .

  17. Well, the good thing about this February is that, it gives March a chance to actually see milder temps.

    Last many years it feels like, February has been so warm and then we´ve had colder Marches that have actually ended up with temps colder than February.

    I do not like when this happens.

    If its 25F all of February and 35F to 40F in March, that will seem like a victory.

      1. I think what he saw in March is here now as he said it was a month early . If I’m right he is unsure how it will play out now

  19. Tuesday: May be our highest impact event of the cold season to date.

    Can´t see the low levels moderating enough, except maybe near the immediate coast.

    Hard to envision the mid levels not being overwhelmed by mild air.

    I think a large area of southern New England is at risk for an ice storm. And this Tuesday system looks like multiple tenths worth of precip as a possibility, which is a lot for freezing rain.

  20. I agree Tom some of the signals have been there the last 2 days. Lots of low level to have to scour out, and we all know how stubborn that cold air can be. Especially if the RDPS has generally the right idea. Lets hope that we get a quick thump of snow on the front end so that it will minimize the accretion on branches and power lines.

  21. I am NOT feeling good vibes about this upcoming event.
    Inland areas could see quite an ice storm. Along the coast, if we have the slightest wind component off of the water, it will go to plain rain, sparing the coast at least.

    It would actually be better that it all goes over to plain rain sooner rather than later if it’s going to be ice. Else go South and let it be snow.

    I hope everything shifts a bit more South and East on both
    of these upcoming events.

    As far as Tonight, Sunday and Monday goes, anything we get is gravy.

  22. GDPS similar to the RDPS (there’s a surprise)

    https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2021021312/078/prateptype.conus.png

    Interesting for the Thu system

    https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2021021312/126/prateptype.conus.png

    https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2021021312/132/prateptype.conus.png

    https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2021021312/138/prateptype.conus.png

    18 hours of frozen precip, about 6 hours of snow followed by 12 hours of sleet!!!

      1. At least sleet gives that crunchy feeling walking on foot, as well as some traction for vehicles. Not to mention little risk for power outages.

        Freezing rain would be a virtual ice rink.

    2. That would be an ok scenario, far better than a dozen hours of freezing rain. 🙂 It would just be a densely packed accumulation of frozen precip for most of the area.

      This is a scenario that I can envision with that since low pressure will be passing south of the region with cold air locked in at the surface.

  26. Euro EPS for two weeks out. This is not a good look if you want wintery weather around here….

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2021_02/594D0087-7CA3-4534-A224-CAEE028C227F.png.132bb988b9e07a5114e3edad105f05b7.png

    The cold and wintery weather shifts to the western two thirds of the country and the SE ridge expands along the east coast. Couple this with weakening NAO/blocking, weakening AO, PNA trending positive, and MJO in unfavorable phase 6/7, we may find it increasingly difficult to get a good snowstorm in here as the month wears on. This is basically what WxW was alluding to above.

    Of course this comes with the caveat that the models have performed poorly in the long range. Just a few days ago, the Euro weeklies had a cold pattern rolling right into early March.

    2. Given the potpourri of frozen precip for much of the upcoming week, that warmth thereafter might not be a bad thing for us.

  28. 12z GEFS Ensemble Mean for Tuesday would take the low over ACK…..

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2021021312&fh=72

    Need to get that to shift SE more.

    And the mean for the Friday system now completely supports the operational with a raging cutter….

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2021021312&fh=138

    Again though, this is light years different than the Euro solution.

  29. Quick peak at 12z Euro looks a little colder for Tuesday. Get that snow area near the CT MA border a tad further south to get me out of the ice.

  33. Quick PM thoughts…

    Feeling good with the overall outlook.
    Small event as far as snowfall goes for tonight/Sunday. As stated previously, even a bout of moderate snow is not going to add up – density, density, density. Atmospheric profile.

    No low pressure areas passing north of us until the last week of February (if then). Feel pretty good about that. This includes Tue & late week events next week. That still doesn’t lock in all snow events. Temp profile aloft = KEY. WxW noted (very correctly), the strength of the SE ridge (finally) has a say in this. A novice might look at the 500mb forecast for us for Monday (for example) and think “wow, warm pattern!” … Yup, if you go up to about 12,000 feet. 😉

      1. We’re vulnerable, but we’ll have to break down each threat as we get into a safe time window to do so with confidence.

  36. For the fun of it I have been tracking the CFS Weekly & Monthly outlooks. The CFS Weekly was a bit late catching up but does have the SE ridge depicted nicely for Week 1 (the next 7 days). Contrary to the Euro Weeklies it gives that ridge little staying power and kicks us back into a colder polar jet-dominated pattern for the end of February and the first half to two-thirds of March, and then if you combine it with the CFS monthly forecast is warms us up starting around March 20 and on through April, before a cooler signature shows up for May/June, no strong heat signatures for the summer, and a colder signature for autumn 2021. It will be fun to track this and look for consistency as we go through the year.

    1. Definitely fun to track. I don’t have much stock in the idea that we get another sizable snow storm before this current meteorological winter is done – I will be very surprised if we do. (and by sizable I mean 6+ inches in one go for boston.)

    2. and the long range models are showing a rather concerning look for the tropics, specifically the eastern Caribbean 🙁

  37. I learned that recently they’ve finally allowed girl scout cookies to be purchased online. If you get the girl scout cookies app you can find your local troop and order. This will not be good for my waistline. Especially since they now have french toast cookies. Just had to share this knowledge.

  39. I was reading yesterday the first time ever Richmond VA was placed under an ice storm warning.
    Currently 280,925 without power in Virginia

    2. That would be because ice storm warnings did not exist before 2017. 😉

      Gotta love how media and/or social media HAS to make everything sound dramatic.

      No, they have not been under an ice storm warning before, because they haven’t had an ice storm since before 2017. But you’d better believe they’ve had their share of ice storms, back when the NWS called them “freezing rain advisories”. 😉

  40. Some of the pictures of the ice I am looking at from WRIC Tv the ABC station in Richmond are pictures I hope we don’t see up here on Tuesday.

  41. Other than the 2011 tornado, the 2nd longest time I’ve been without power was the December 2008 ice storm, and that is what prompted me to break down and buy a generator. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen again , however this time I’m ready. 🙂

  42. We lucked out here in CT as the temperature was just above freezing during that 2008 Ice Storm you mentioned South Central. You had considerable damage from that event.

  44. Yes sir, both my patience and chainsaw were tested during that event. Lots of large branches down. Like I’ve said before I live on a heavily wooded backroad and we had multiple poles and wires snap.

  46. 1.00” ice accretion would be catastrophic, I sure hope to hell that this changes to either sleet or plain rain because this would be a bad scenario. This is not set in stone, so hoping for a small change track, fingers crossed.

  47. I agree. When you get up to quarter inch of icing then you start to have power issues and some tree branches coming down. A half inch or greater you got a damaging ice storm with widespread tree damage and power outages.

  48. Just got back into the city . Nice night 30 now & does not feel that cold . Long night / been long day .

    1. Not much to talk about. Bit of mix / icing South Coast. That’s about it so far. This wave is struggling to generate precipitation. Not a bad thing. 🙂

        1. There is precipitation now falling over central MA that is very slowly trying to make its way toward Boston. It may get there at some point.

          1. So this is basically a quiet night May salt / may not & should be able to pull out early in the morning ( awesome song by the way )

  50. TK re “ice storm warnings” not existing before 2017 – I could have sworn I had seen ice storm warnings existing throughout my life as an avid newspaper consumer. I present to you some mentions if “ice storm warnings” In local papers from Massachusetts specifically throughout the 60’s to the 90’s:

    https://ibb.co/B3g31QJ

    https://ibb.co/0K9KzHS

    https://ibb.co/j62RK1k

    https://ibb.co/fr6Zg2g

    (I didn’t crop any of the pages so as to keep dates intact. These are four random selections and an actual issuance from NWS.)

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